Coronavirus - New Zealand



  • @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I just hope that they are considering that with enough weight on the 20th. I’m concerned they have an unrealistic target of eradicating the virus.
    That target would be “at all costs”

    It would be well named in that case.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Absolutely sick death of the govt propaganda being repeated by the media that NZ was on the same trajectory as Italy and Spain, that is just bullshit.

    Are you? You poor thing, of all the things to make you sick. You seem to be taking this harder than most I have seen or heard of.

    The doom and gloom around everything is kind of funny to watch unravel

    Oh you seem to have misunderstood, I will be personally fine regardless. If my business fails I have separated my properties and other business from the at risk business.

    I am not that stressed out for myself, I am stressed out for some people who work for me, they are good men who have hard lives and tough childhoods. I used to think I understood that as I grew up very working class.... but I didn't really, I still don't, ...but I am closer.
    When I read your post it didn't fire me up, it just reminded me of many people I know, good people, but completely and utterly out of touch with the struggling and incredibly spoilt by years of advantage. And I am sure I am taking it harder than most you know, but likely says more about the people you know.
    As I get older I appreciate 2 things more and more, 1) personal liberty and freedom 2) A proper safety net to help the struggling.
    So yeah the govt actions attack both those things that I cherish. I think becoming a Dad also changed my attitude as our generation is squandering so many basic freedoms at break neck speed... and whilst I will be fine because I will be able to finance my own future, my kids are growing up in a different and less free world , so if all a middle age middle class guy can do is argue his case on the internet, I will, and I won't let some other middle aged middle class guy being an obnoxious ostrich deter me.
    I know I am in the minority, and your attitude is the majority. But I don't care as I believe what I believe. And the majority usually have no idea what the heck they talking about. Of course you take that to the next level by not only having little idea, but you mock others for caring.
    And this isn't political, both parties would have done this.

    I just need to clarify that when I say unravel, I certainly didn't mean you or your business! God no. I meant the situation at hand.

    I am hoping we all get through this unscathed. (To me unscathed means still have a going concern to keep building)



  • @booboo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan I need to elaborate as my post doesn't look right. I do care about BSG, just not the people he speaks of. (In the same way in that I read about people dying that I have never known before, I don't care about that)

    If that makes sense

    I'm afraid it doesn't.

    To my mind you if you don't care about those people who you've never met you wouldn't abide by the lockdown.

    Because I'm pretty sure you do care about everybody affected by this you DO abide by the lockdown.

    It's finding the balance between lives and life that I'm not sure we've got 100% right yet.

    Yeah it does as I don't want to catch the damn thing, so I am sticking to the rules as it were.



  • My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.

    28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.

    Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.

    Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.



  • 29 cases today, 2 more deaths.





  • @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    29 cases today, 2 more deaths.

    and more than that recovered - so the total infected is consistently on the way down.

    'infected' here means 'showed symptoms' of course, but it's great news.



  • Great news.

    Ok the negative side, noticeable increase in people out and about here today, at the park and in their cars. Wonder if it's just the cracking weather or people starting to relax?



  • @voodoo I think bit of both...dumb arses and warm weather

    Some shitty weather gonna hit the south island and bottom of north from tomorrow night, might keep a few more indoors.



  • @Rapido I think that's what everyone is banking on. I look forward to a decent announcement from our Finance Minister on Tuesday or Wednesday with more support for businesses and affected sectors.

    Speaking of affected sectors, I was looking at Stats NZ figures here: https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/tourism-satellite-account-2019

    There are 229,566 directly and 163,713 indirectly employed in/by tourism (total 393,279 - this includes working owners). Total spend is $40.9 billion, being $17.2 billion for international tourists and $23.7 billion for domestic tourists.

    From that, just over 42% of tourism spending is international, suggesting approx. 165,000 jobs on the line if international tourism dries up completely. Obviously there may be reductions in hours instead of job losses in some cases, but it's still a lot of lost work.

    I had written a lot more, but it won't display which is annoying. Maybe tomorrow.



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  • This post is deleted!


  • @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I had written a lot more, but it won't display which is annoying. Maybe tomorrow.

    Try adding a space after the <

    I think that is where the software is getting confused



  • @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @nzzp yeah for me, I reckon when we went into lockdown, they needed to lock the borders up to all non-NZ citizens/residents and those returning into a GOvt facility for testing and iso.

    Or, there are some that will argue, stay at L3 and lockdown our borders would have been sufficient...

    Obviously the >taken with large spoon of salt< figures out of China are encouraging, similarly the numbers coming out of Italy the past 4 or 5 days are encouraging, but the toll there is huge, so things seem to have a way of levelling out, but its the human cost vs the economic cost that has been discussed as well...there will be a lingering human cost as the economic cost bites too.

    I cant see how we dont come out after 4 weeks, but how they manage this will be interesting, I expect I will have to keep working from home (cos I can) with my kids being home schooled...I might bring back the cane!

    In the UK this morning it is reported that social distancing will remain for the foreseeable future. The populace is simply too large to adopt and eradicate and trace strategy. Schools likely to reopen in mid-May.

    Will be interesting to see how NZ addresses the post tourism world...



  • @pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Will be interesting to see how NZ addresses the post tourism world...

    Not just tourism - business travel is massive. Hotels, flights, entertainment/food - makes up a big proportion of spending



  • @nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Will be interesting to see how NZ addresses the post tourism world...

    Not just tourism - business travel is massive. Hotels, flights, entertainment/food - makes up a big proportion of spending

    Overseas students, etc.. Big slug GDP.



  • @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    suggesting approx. 165,000 jobs on the line if international tourism dries up completely

    I wonder how many of those jobs were filled by overseas people themselves? Obviously will be many Kiwis but in the major tourist destinations a lot of the hospitality staff are from overseas. They still earn and spend money here, so still has an effect, but might change the job loss numbers a bit for New Zealanders.

    Accor hotels are a prime example - don't think many of their staff are locals. As they closed down a hotel the day of the shut down in Queenstown, I spoke to an Italian guy and a Spanish girl behind the counter. Room service was by a Phillipina, cleaner was from eastern Europe somewhere judging by the accent. It has been similar in all of their hotels that I have stayed in.



  • Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...



  • @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked



  • @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.

    28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.

    Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.

    Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.

    Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.

    BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked

    Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked

    Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused

    A paused economy is a wrecked economy.

    And refer to the post above yours.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked

    Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused

    A paused economy is a wrecked economy.

    Sorry, I still don't see what is wrecked? What is a wrecked economy in your eyes?



  • @Hooroo Read JC's post



  • I was wondering how many arrivals there were back to NZ before the lockdown occurred. Best I can find is from Stats NZ four weekly number up to 19/03 (1 week before lockdown). I've circled that point in green which was 157,000 in that week (which was slightly below average).

    Talk that an extra 50,000 have returned further back in the thread, but I've not seen any numbers yet.

    So, quarantining before lockdown could have meant potentially quarantining 207,000 people per month?

    Arrivals.png



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo Read JC's post

    Fair call, read now.

    @JC

    Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?

    If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.



  • @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.

    28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.

    Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.

    Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.

    Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.

    BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.

    Yes, I agree. But a recession is coming anyway. All of NZ's trading partners are going into recessions simultaneously and global travel has halted. NZ consumers were doomsday prepping weeks before any official talk of lockdowns. It was happening.

    My position is whether a 28 day simultaneous lockdown with returness arriving into a nation in isolation bubbles and with a short sharp period of of govt will cause less failures than a drip fed consumer led contraction. I think so, but I don't know so.

    It was happening anyway, just the govt moved about a fortnight earlier than I expected them to, While, initially a little surprised at the speed, I now think it's quite smart to coincide the lock down with the influx.

    It gives us someone to blame, though.

    Well, that's my take. My consumer behaviour was changing before any ramp up. I was getting 'my last haircut' before I quite needed it, I usually pack my own lunch but I was buying my lunches 'while I felt I still could' before I knew I would have to change some behaviour and retract. Bought some running shoes while there were still physical shops and I could try them on.



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo Read JC's post

    Fair call, read now.

    @JC

    Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?

    If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.

    Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.

    NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.

    The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.

    Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.



  • @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.

    28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.

    Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.

    Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.

    Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.

    BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.

    Yes, I agree. But a recession is coming anyway. All of NZ's trading partners are going into recessions simultaneously and global travel has halted. NZ consumers were doomsday prepping weeks before any official talk of lockdowns. It was happening.

    My position is whether a 28 day simultaneous lockdown with returness arriving into a nation in isolation bubbles and with a short sharp period of of govt will cause less failures than a drip fed consumer led contraction. I think so, but I don't know so.

    It was happening anyway, just the govt moved about a fortnight earlier than I expected them to, While, initially a little surprised at the speed, I now think it's quite smart to coincide the lock down with the influx.

    It gives us someone to blame, though.

    Well, that's my take. My consumer behaviour was changing before any ramp up. I was getting 'my last haircut' before I quite needed it, I usually pack my own lunch but I was buying my lunches 'while I felt I still could' before I knew I would have to change some behaviour and retract. Bought some running shoes while there were still physical shops and I could try them on.

    I think you’re missing the point. Recessions happen. But for some firms and people they are opportunities. And for others at least as a manager you have options. This scenario gives them none.



  • @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo Read JC's post

    Fair call, read now.

    @JC

    Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?

    If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.

    Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.

    NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.

    The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.

    Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.

    Sorry for picking at a part of your post as I understand fully what you mean as a whole. What about our biggest essential companies (Dairy, Pulp & Paper, Agriculture and seafood, primary industry, I guess) They won't miss a beat. I get the smaller will suffer in the short term.

    Do you think we could have done anything substantially different that wouldn't have seen this sort of impact given what the rest of the world is doing?

    I'm not arguing this with you, I just respect your opinion on it.

    I also have no idea what "TLDR" stands for



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo Read JC's post

    Fair call, read now.

    @JC

    Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?

    If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.

    Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.

    NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.

    The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.

    Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.

    Sorry for picking at a part of your post as I understand fully what you mean as a whole. What about our biggest essential companies (Dairy, Pulp & Paper, Agriculture and seafood, primary industry, I guess) They won't miss a beat. I get the smaller will suffer in the short term.

    Do you think we could have done anything substantially different that wouldn't have seen this sort of impact given what the rest of the world is doing?

    I'm not arguing this with you, I just respect your opinion on it.

    I also have no idea what "TLDR" stands for

    The rest of the world has not done what we did.

    Of course there will be some industries not affected,? So what?

    Let's say 30% of the economy is fine.... 70% will not be. We have wrecked our economy because we were worried about a much smaller % getting sick.



  • i would think that the primary industry will be reliant on what the overseas countries can pay coinsidering they will also going through a recession. when combined with the debt levels in some off those industries i would expect quite a few will be in danger of losing there bussiness as well



  • Just 18 new confirmed cases today, seems to be going alright?



  • @Hooroo TL;DR = Too Long, Didn’t Read

    I’m not suggesting the entire economy will tank. Major exporters will probably weather the storm, with the caveat that if NZ appears to be doing better than our trading partners the NZD is likely to strengthen and repatriated income will be lower.

    But the internal SME sector is likely to be decimated. As well as the impacts I related above, that will have the additional negative effect of the companies and their employees paying lower or no tax



  • In Japan, govt. hasn't done jack apart from promising two washable masks per family (it is beyond satire). Small businesses like restaurants, bars etc had no customers and were struggling with running costs as the fear factor grew parallel to the increasing numbers of corona patients. Now they are being forced to close in the worst effected areas and it looks to be prolonged (Some Japanese commentators saying the Olympics in 2021 will have to be postponed). My point is you are damned if you do and damned if you don't for small businesses.



  • @Old-Samurai-Jack said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    In Japan, govt. hasn't done jack apart from promising two washable masks per family (it is beyond satire). Small businesses like restaurants, bars etc had no customers and were struggling with running costs as the fear factor grew parallel to the increasing numbers of corona patients. Now they are being forced to close in the worst effected areas and it looks to be prolonged (Some Japanese commentators saying the Olympics in 2021 will have to be postponed). My point is you are damned if you do and damned if you don't for small businesses.

    Many businesses are moving to online contactless business, including one of the local restaurants repurposed as a wine merchant to try to keep alive. For some the crisis is driving adaptation



  • I don't know how far it extends, but Mrs CF told me many clothing stores are now trading online. And not just those selling 'essential clothing'. A quick check of a couple of sites confirms this. That's good news. Fortunately Mrs CF chose not to personally support her favourite sites. At least for now......



  • @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo TL;DR = Too Long, Didn’t Read

    I’m not suggesting the entire economy will tank. Major exporters will probably weather the storm, with the caveat that if NZ appears to be doing better than our trading partners the NZD is likely to strengthen and repatriated income will be lower.

    But the internal SME sector is likely to be decimated. As well as the impacts I related above, that will have the additional negative effect of the companies and their employees paying lower or no tax

    I guess that is what I am trying to understand from the likes of you (In terms of your thought process around this)

    I'm talking about the economy as a whole. If out biggest components of it are still going well and will likely see an increase in revenue in the short term given where our FX rate is and the primary commodities are increasing in price currently. Won't the impact on the economy as a whole be OK overall? There will just be subsections of pain?



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo Read JC's post

    Fair call, read now.

    @JC

    Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?

    If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.

    Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.

    NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.

    The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.

    Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.

    Sorry for picking at a part of your post as I understand fully what you mean as a whole. What about our biggest essential companies (Dairy, Pulp & Paper, Agriculture and seafood, primary industry, I guess) They won't miss a beat. I get the smaller will suffer in the short term.

    Do you think we could have done anything substantially different that wouldn't have seen this sort of impact given what the rest of the world is doing?

    I'm not arguing this with you, I just respect your opinion on it.

    I also have no idea what "TLDR" stands for

    The rest of the world has not done what we did.

    I wasn't suggesting it has. Just suggesting that currently it is different to the norm.



  • The maths of infection is the hardest part of this, and why it's so hard to balance in either direction. In essence, infection is exponential, so small changes in the exponent can lead large differences in outcomes. To give an example of exponential growth, if you place 1 grain of rice on a corner square on a chessboard, then 2 next on the square next to it, then keep doubling, you end up with 2^63 grains of rice = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains of rice on the last square. That, incidentally, is where the title for 28 days came from - it would take 28 days to infect everyone in the world with zombie-ism if the number of infected people doubled every day.

    Specifically, if each person infects at least 1 new person, then the virus will not disappear until the whole population is infected. If each person infects less than 1 new person on average, then cases will drop over time (which is what is happening here at the moment). If each person infects more than 1, then cases will increase.

    This is R0 aka Reproduction Number - the number of people infected by a carrier, as an average of the population. Unchecked, Coronavirus has an R0 of between 2.5 and 3 i.e. each infected person will infect another 2-3 people in their 2 weeks of having Covid-19. Get that to below 1, and it will slowly come under control. Fine margins for error with exponential growth, and this is where the higher estimates are coming from (modelling normally involves multiple estimates, low, medium, high, maybe more). Reduce it, and the differences are pronounced.


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