Coronavirus - New Zealand



  • @pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Will be interesting to see how NZ addresses the post tourism world...

    Not just tourism - business travel is massive. Hotels, flights, entertainment/food - makes up a big proportion of spending



  • @nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Will be interesting to see how NZ addresses the post tourism world...

    Not just tourism - business travel is massive. Hotels, flights, entertainment/food - makes up a big proportion of spending

    Overseas students, etc.. Big slug GDP.



  • @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    suggesting approx. 165,000 jobs on the line if international tourism dries up completely

    I wonder how many of those jobs were filled by overseas people themselves? Obviously will be many Kiwis but in the major tourist destinations a lot of the hospitality staff are from overseas. They still earn and spend money here, so still has an effect, but might change the job loss numbers a bit for New Zealanders.

    Accor hotels are a prime example - don't think many of their staff are locals. As they closed down a hotel the day of the shut down in Queenstown, I spoke to an Italian guy and a Spanish girl behind the counter. Room service was by a Phillipina, cleaner was from eastern Europe somewhere judging by the accent. It has been similar in all of their hotels that I have stayed in.



  • Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...



  • @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked



  • @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.

    28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.

    Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.

    Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.

    Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.

    BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked

    Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked

    Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused

    A paused economy is a wrecked economy.

    And refer to the post above yours.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked

    Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused

    A paused economy is a wrecked economy.

    Sorry, I still don't see what is wrecked? What is a wrecked economy in your eyes?



  • @Hooroo Read JC's post



  • I was wondering how many arrivals there were back to NZ before the lockdown occurred. Best I can find is from Stats NZ four weekly number up to 19/03 (1 week before lockdown). I've circled that point in green which was 157,000 in that week (which was slightly below average).

    Talk that an extra 50,000 have returned further back in the thread, but I've not seen any numbers yet.

    So, quarantining before lockdown could have meant potentially quarantining 207,000 people per month?

    Arrivals.png



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo Read JC's post

    Fair call, read now.

    @JC

    Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?

    If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.



  • @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.

    28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.

    Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.

    Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.

    Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.

    BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.

    Yes, I agree. But a recession is coming anyway. All of NZ's trading partners are going into recessions simultaneously and global travel has halted. NZ consumers were doomsday prepping weeks before any official talk of lockdowns. It was happening.

    My position is whether a 28 day simultaneous lockdown with returness arriving into a nation in isolation bubbles and with a short sharp period of of govt will cause less failures than a drip fed consumer led contraction. I think so, but I don't know so.

    It was happening anyway, just the govt moved about a fortnight earlier than I expected them to, While, initially a little surprised at the speed, I now think it's quite smart to coincide the lock down with the influx.

    It gives us someone to blame, though.

    Well, that's my take. My consumer behaviour was changing before any ramp up. I was getting 'my last haircut' before I quite needed it, I usually pack my own lunch but I was buying my lunches 'while I felt I still could' before I knew I would have to change some behaviour and retract. Bought some running shoes while there were still physical shops and I could try them on.



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo Read JC's post

    Fair call, read now.

    @JC

    Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?

    If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.

    Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.

    NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.

    The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.

    Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.



  • @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.

    28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.

    Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.

    Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.

    Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.

    BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.

    Yes, I agree. But a recession is coming anyway. All of NZ's trading partners are going into recessions simultaneously and global travel has halted. NZ consumers were doomsday prepping weeks before any official talk of lockdowns. It was happening.

    My position is whether a 28 day simultaneous lockdown with returness arriving into a nation in isolation bubbles and with a short sharp period of of govt will cause less failures than a drip fed consumer led contraction. I think so, but I don't know so.

    It was happening anyway, just the govt moved about a fortnight earlier than I expected them to, While, initially a little surprised at the speed, I now think it's quite smart to coincide the lock down with the influx.

    It gives us someone to blame, though.

    Well, that's my take. My consumer behaviour was changing before any ramp up. I was getting 'my last haircut' before I quite needed it, I usually pack my own lunch but I was buying my lunches 'while I felt I still could' before I knew I would have to change some behaviour and retract. Bought some running shoes while there were still physical shops and I could try them on.

    I think you’re missing the point. Recessions happen. But for some firms and people they are opportunities. And for others at least as a manager you have options. This scenario gives them none.



  • @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo Read JC's post

    Fair call, read now.

    @JC

    Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?

    If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.

    Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.

    NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.

    The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.

    Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.

    Sorry for picking at a part of your post as I understand fully what you mean as a whole. What about our biggest essential companies (Dairy, Pulp & Paper, Agriculture and seafood, primary industry, I guess) They won't miss a beat. I get the smaller will suffer in the short term.

    Do you think we could have done anything substantially different that wouldn't have seen this sort of impact given what the rest of the world is doing?

    I'm not arguing this with you, I just respect your opinion on it.

    I also have no idea what "TLDR" stands for



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo Read JC's post

    Fair call, read now.

    @JC

    Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?

    If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.

    Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.

    NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.

    The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.

    Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.

    Sorry for picking at a part of your post as I understand fully what you mean as a whole. What about our biggest essential companies (Dairy, Pulp & Paper, Agriculture and seafood, primary industry, I guess) They won't miss a beat. I get the smaller will suffer in the short term.

    Do you think we could have done anything substantially different that wouldn't have seen this sort of impact given what the rest of the world is doing?

    I'm not arguing this with you, I just respect your opinion on it.

    I also have no idea what "TLDR" stands for

    The rest of the world has not done what we did.

    Of course there will be some industries not affected,? So what?

    Let's say 30% of the economy is fine.... 70% will not be. We have wrecked our economy because we were worried about a much smaller % getting sick.



  • i would think that the primary industry will be reliant on what the overseas countries can pay coinsidering they will also going through a recession. when combined with the debt levels in some off those industries i would expect quite a few will be in danger of losing there bussiness as well



  • Just 18 new confirmed cases today, seems to be going alright?



  • @Hooroo TL;DR = Too Long, Didn’t Read

    I’m not suggesting the entire economy will tank. Major exporters will probably weather the storm, with the caveat that if NZ appears to be doing better than our trading partners the NZD is likely to strengthen and repatriated income will be lower.

    But the internal SME sector is likely to be decimated. As well as the impacts I related above, that will have the additional negative effect of the companies and their employees paying lower or no tax



  • In Japan, govt. hasn't done jack apart from promising two washable masks per family (it is beyond satire). Small businesses like restaurants, bars etc had no customers and were struggling with running costs as the fear factor grew parallel to the increasing numbers of corona patients. Now they are being forced to close in the worst effected areas and it looks to be prolonged (Some Japanese commentators saying the Olympics in 2021 will have to be postponed). My point is you are damned if you do and damned if you don't for small businesses.



  • @Old-Samurai-Jack said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    In Japan, govt. hasn't done jack apart from promising two washable masks per family (it is beyond satire). Small businesses like restaurants, bars etc had no customers and were struggling with running costs as the fear factor grew parallel to the increasing numbers of corona patients. Now they are being forced to close in the worst effected areas and it looks to be prolonged (Some Japanese commentators saying the Olympics in 2021 will have to be postponed). My point is you are damned if you do and damned if you don't for small businesses.

    Many businesses are moving to online contactless business, including one of the local restaurants repurposed as a wine merchant to try to keep alive. For some the crisis is driving adaptation



  • I don't know how far it extends, but Mrs CF told me many clothing stores are now trading online. And not just those selling 'essential clothing'. A quick check of a couple of sites confirms this. That's good news. Fortunately Mrs CF chose not to personally support her favourite sites. At least for now......



  • @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo TL;DR = Too Long, Didn’t Read

    I’m not suggesting the entire economy will tank. Major exporters will probably weather the storm, with the caveat that if NZ appears to be doing better than our trading partners the NZD is likely to strengthen and repatriated income will be lower.

    But the internal SME sector is likely to be decimated. As well as the impacts I related above, that will have the additional negative effect of the companies and their employees paying lower or no tax

    I guess that is what I am trying to understand from the likes of you (In terms of your thought process around this)

    I'm talking about the economy as a whole. If out biggest components of it are still going well and will likely see an increase in revenue in the short term given where our FX rate is and the primary commodities are increasing in price currently. Won't the impact on the economy as a whole be OK overall? There will just be subsections of pain?



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo Read JC's post

    Fair call, read now.

    @JC

    Do you think that what your wrote in your last post is worst case outcome or 'will be' outcome?

    If just worst case, given what we have been through and what is coming, what is your best case outcome? I'm talking realistically.

    Honestly? That’s what will happen. There are thousands of companies that are only marginally viable at the best of times. I’ve come into contact with a lot of people who pay themselves much less than their employees, because they want to be their own boss and they’ve been hoping that in the long term they will get their rewards in turn. And you would be amazed how routine it’s is for banks and finance companies (if anything they are worse) to ask for personal guarantees, and people give them.

    NZ’s business community is not largely focussed on manufacturing essential goods. What manufacturing there is seems to be discretionary, either domestic (new kitchens and bathrooms?) or support for businesses. That last one is very dependent on those businesses choosing to invest, which is always the hardest part of a recession for a government - getting businesses to a place where they have confidence enough to spend on growth again. A larger part still is services, and that is totally dependent on getting people to part with their disposable income, assuming they have any. How many people are going to be as quick to open their wallets as they were this time last year? More to the point, how many people are going to be willing to put spending onto a credit card or take out a personal loan? I understand most banks’ lending is down about 90% vs plan.

    The saddest part is that it doesn’t matter at all for people like me. Like many in the older age groups I will die long before my money runs out. But my tradie brother? Shitting himself. I can’t imagine how a non or semi skilled worker feels now, or a hairdresser, florist, barista, waitress, chef or cab driver. And I think it’s now a much scarier world if you’re young.

    Sorry for the rambling, TL;DR this will hurt, and for a while.

    Sorry for picking at a part of your post as I understand fully what you mean as a whole. What about our biggest essential companies (Dairy, Pulp & Paper, Agriculture and seafood, primary industry, I guess) They won't miss a beat. I get the smaller will suffer in the short term.

    Do you think we could have done anything substantially different that wouldn't have seen this sort of impact given what the rest of the world is doing?

    I'm not arguing this with you, I just respect your opinion on it.

    I also have no idea what "TLDR" stands for

    The rest of the world has not done what we did.

    I wasn't suggesting it has. Just suggesting that currently it is different to the norm.



  • The maths of infection is the hardest part of this, and why it's so hard to balance in either direction. In essence, infection is exponential, so small changes in the exponent can lead large differences in outcomes. To give an example of exponential growth, if you place 1 grain of rice on a corner square on a chessboard, then 2 next on the square next to it, then keep doubling, you end up with 2^63 grains of rice = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains of rice on the last square. That, incidentally, is where the title for 28 days came from - it would take 28 days to infect everyone in the world with zombie-ism if the number of infected people doubled every day.

    Specifically, if each person infects at least 1 new person, then the virus will not disappear until the whole population is infected. If each person infects less than 1 new person on average, then cases will drop over time (which is what is happening here at the moment). If each person infects more than 1, then cases will increase.

    This is R0 aka Reproduction Number - the number of people infected by a carrier, as an average of the population. Unchecked, Coronavirus has an R0 of between 2.5 and 3 i.e. each infected person will infect another 2-3 people in their 2 weeks of having Covid-19. Get that to below 1, and it will slowly come under control. Fine margins for error with exponential growth, and this is where the higher estimates are coming from (modelling normally involves multiple estimates, low, medium, high, maybe more). Reduce it, and the differences are pronounced.



  • A link that I haven't seen drawn in the media, but is quite important is that NZ has quite a lot of experience and expertise in dealing with agricultural and forestry disease incursions - and in the decision-making surrounding these.

    Various responses - off the top of my head to tussock moth, painted apple moth, varroa mite, kiwifruit psa and, probably most useful for this government, Mycoplasma bovis. This Cabinet will have sat through endless briefings on Mb and so won't have had to start from scratch in understanding the basic principles of disease management and prospects for eradication.



  • @Chris-B said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    A link that I haven't seen drawn in the media, but is quite important is that NZ has quite a lot of experience and expertise in dealing with agricultural and forestry disease incursions - and in the decision-making surrounding these.

    Various responses - off the top of my head to tussock moth, painted apple moth, varroa mite, kiwifruit psa and, probably most useful for this government, Mycoplasma bovis. This Cabinet will have sat through endless briefings on Mb and so won't have had to start from scratch in understanding the basic principles of disease management and prospects for eradication.

    How has MB been? Haven’t heard anything in the news for quite some time



  • @Virgil Nor me - but, I think we have a significantly better chance of eradicating corona than Mb (at least temporarily), especially because we don't have much idea of when Mb arrived in NZ. I've seen suggestions that it might have been here for 20 years.



  • @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    The maths of infection is the hardest part of this, and why it's so hard to balance in either direction. In essence, infection is exponential, so small changes in the exponent can lead large differences in outcomes. To give an example of exponential growth, if you place 1 grain of rice on a corner square on a chessboard, then 2 next on the square next to it, then keep doubling, you end up with 2^63 grains of rice = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains of rice on the last square. That, incidentally, is where the title for 28 days came from - it would take 28 days to infect everyone in the world with zombie-ism if the number of infected people doubled every day.

    Specifically, if each person infects at least 1 new person, then the virus will not disappear until the whole population is infected. If each person infects less than 1 new person on average, then cases will drop over time (which is what is happening here at the moment). If each person infects more than 1, then cases will increase.

    This is R0 aka Reproduction Number - the number of people infected by a carrier, as an average of the population. Unchecked, Coronavirus has an R0 of between 2.5 and 3 i.e. each infected person will infect another 2-3 people in their 2 weeks of having Covid-19. Get that to below 1, and it will slowly come under control. Fine margins for error with exponential growth, and this is where the higher estimates are coming from (modelling normally involves multiple estimates, low, medium, high, maybe more). Reduce it, and the differences are pronounced.

    I think everyone know the exponential growth of early virus life cycle. The govt has pounded us over the had with it a every opportunity.
    What they dont seem to talk about is the exponential growth in the early life cycle of a recession.



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo TL;DR = Too Long, Didn’t Read

    I’m not suggesting the entire economy will tank. Major exporters will probably weather the storm, with the caveat that if NZ appears to be doing better than our trading partners the NZD is likely to strengthen and repatriated income will be lower.

    But the internal SME sector is likely to be decimated. As well as the impacts I related above, that will have the additional negative effect of the companies and their employees paying lower or no tax

    I guess that is what I am trying to understand from the likes of you (In terms of your thought process around this)

    I'm talking about the economy as a whole. If out biggest components of it are still going well and will likely see an increase in revenue in the short term given where our FX rate is and the primary commodities are increasing in price currently. Won't the impact on the economy as a whole be OK overall? There will just be subsections of pain?

    Just on GDP most commentators think that’s going to take a hit of at least 10% year on year. That’s pretty optimistic I think:

    i. There are stories of primary producers that have containers on the water now who are being told the recipients can’t pay.

    ii. Others can’t get hold of containers and we are actually bringing in shiploads of empty containers.

    iii. Small businesses (1-19 employees) recorded sales of $153bn in FY2018, So just based on sales alone you’d expect that taking most of them offline for a month will take 8% or $12bn out of the GDP for a start.

    iv. Some supposedly essential businesses aren’t able to generate much turnover as they have no customers. Gas stations, chemists, GPs, builders, banks and FIs are a good example of this.

    v. Consumer discretionary spending is probably as low as it’s ever been.

    vi. FIs aren’t lending. They’ve tightened up their lending policies for personal loans for two reasons: they don’t want to lose money and they don’t want to get accused of predatory lending behaviour. Mortgage lending is, understandably, at a standstill. They are also preparing for large increases in loan impairments, so once we are out of the lockdown it will likely be some time before lending comes back to normal.

    It could go on for a while. The biggest hurdle to recovery is consumer and business confidence. You can’t convince people who are worried about losing their jobs to spend, or companies who worry about their survival to invest. Normally though there is some offset because people sit on their savings and earn interest, which is a direct GDP contributor, but right now savings rates are close to zero. And that money is going to be idle on banks’ balance sheets, because it’s not going to be lent.

    There’s also a big unknown. We don’t yet have any data on how the shortfall in personal earnings correlates to people who have no savings or disposable income. It’s all well and good to contribute 85% of wages, but who is absorbing the rest? Families that regularly burn through all their weekly income - and more - will struggle with 15% less. Businesses? A company with 20 staff has to keep paying 3 people’s wages with no revenue. At minimum wage that’s 9 grand in 4weeks. You tell me what kind of turnover the average company has to generate at normal margins to be able to recoup that $9k?



  • @JC That's a pretty decent summary, I think.

    Though, I suspect the number of businesses that get killed off by a 4 week (or 6 week) lock down, that would have survived the subsequent global depression, will be pretty negligible.

    I'm hoping that our short-run eradication plan will work, and we'll be a bit like we were after WWII, battered, but relatively without our productive base destroyed.



  • @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo TL;DR = Too Long, Didn’t Read

    I’m not suggesting the entire economy will tank. Major exporters will probably weather the storm, with the caveat that if NZ appears to be doing better than our trading partners the NZD is likely to strengthen and repatriated income will be lower.

    But the internal SME sector is likely to be decimated. As well as the impacts I related above, that will have the additional negative effect of the companies and their employees paying lower or no tax

    I guess that is what I am trying to understand from the likes of you (In terms of your thought process around this)

    I'm talking about the economy as a whole. If out biggest components of it are still going well and will likely see an increase in revenue in the short term given where our FX rate is and the primary commodities are increasing in price currently. Won't the impact on the economy as a whole be OK overall? There will just be subsections of pain?

    Just on GDP most commentators think that’s going to take a hit of at least 10% year on year. That’s pretty optimistic I think:

    i. There are stories of primary producers that have containers on the water now who are being told the recipients can’t pay.

    ii. Others can’t get hold of containers and we are actually bringing in shiploads of empty containers.

    iii. Small businesses (1-19 employees) recorded sales of $153bn in FY2018, So just based on sales alone you’d expect that taking most of them offline for a month will take 8% or $12bn out of the GDP for a start.

    iv. Some supposedly essential businesses aren’t able to generate much turnover as they have no customers. Gas stations, chemists, GPs, builders, banks and FIs are a good example of this.

    v. Consumer discretionary spending is probably as low as it’s ever been.

    vi. FIs aren’t lending. They’ve tightened up their lending policies for personal loans for two reasons: they don’t want to lose money and they don’t want to get accused of predatory lending behaviour. Mortgage lending is, understandably, at a standstill. They are also preparing for large increases in loan impairments, so once we are out of the lockdown it will likely be some time before lending comes back to normal.

    It could go on for a while. The biggest hurdle to recovery is consumer and business confidence. You can’t convince people who are worried about losing their jobs to spend, or companies who worry about their survival to invest. Normally though there is some offset because people sit on their savings and earn interest, which is a direct GDP contributor, but right now savings rates are close to zero. And that money is going to be idle on banks’ balance sheets, because it’s not going to be lent.

    There’s also a big unknown. We don’t yet have any data on how the shortfall in personal earnings correlates to people who have no savings or disposable income. It’s all well and good to contribute 85% of wages, but who is absorbing the rest? Families that regularly burn through all their weekly income - and more - will struggle with 15% less. Businesses? A company with 20 staff has to keep paying 3 people’s wages with no revenue. At minimum wage that’s 9 grand in 4weeks. You tell me what kind of turnover the average company has to generate at normal margins to be able to recoup that $9k?

    I’ve been drinking and the notification of your post disappeared when I clicked on it. Can you respond to this so I read it when sober as I am really enjoying your opinion.



  • It's strange how long it has taken - and continues to take - some economic and business commentators to move past the GFC as their regular reference point. The spectre of the 1930's economically has been clearly looming for about four to five weeks.

    The social distancing requirements in the workplace are impacting on businesses still able to operate, who in some cases are down by as much as a third on their normal employment levels as a result. Those distancing requirements don't ease at the end of level 4, so that portion of the workforce won't be back any time soon, regardless of whether lockdown is a short sharp one. And that's employment in essential industries...

    The flow on employment effects and impact on consumer confidence is going to be massive. From a back of the envelope estimate a couple of weeks ago, about 15% of the NZ labour force works in tourism and international education supported employment alone. Most places seem to be in a similar boat though. The job data out of the USA, though not surprising, is still absolutely staggering.

    @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    i. There are stories of primary producers that have containers on the water now who are being told the recipients can’t pay.

    I vaguely remember an economic history of the great depression suggesting NZ experienced it quite differently to the rest of the world. Unlike most places, our main exports were still in demand, but the ability to pay a reasonable price went through the floor. So it was still a shithouse time for employment and industry here - just for different reasons. 'NZ industries are price takers on the world market' is the phrase springing to mind...



  • @Hooroo No



  • If I was enrolled in the Hooroo school of not giving a shit about strangers. I would be pleased with how NZ and Australia are going respectively. If NZ crashes badly and Australia does not? I will make shit tons of cash... if my business survives the next few months.







  • I'm not smart enough, nor educated enough to say why, but I always thought another economic crash was coming. I based that on the fact that central banks were fighting a new war with old weapons, and the low interest rates spawned bubbles everywhere. Business and consumer confidence has never really recovered from the last crash, but in a weird coincidence no one saved any money, people paid down their debt. Debt that was mainly on overpriced housing.

    Then we get this, a worldwide shock where entire economies shut down. No one has savings to call on. Countries lock down borders and stop a huge number of industries. People can't work. Business owners can't trade. Yes some are still working, but really, the economy has ground to a halt. If it hadn't, governments wouldn't be shelling out unheard of amounts of cash.

    My fear is, how long do the wheels take to start rolling again? A society that started cash poor are even worse now. Also, they are spooked. And they've burned their leave. Who is going out to spend money? Which countries are taking your exports? What stimulus is required to get money moving again?

    I am very wary of the future. The longer this drags, the longer it takes to restart.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback They spent their own time and money to try to help out the country in a time of need. I know they all have a lot of it but good on them


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