World Test Championship
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@booboo said in World Test Championship:
So, new topic so we can track the path to 70% ...
Firstly, result of Fourth Test Aus v Ind
Great idea! Do we need to add the poms to this as they are in with a shout and trousered Sri Lanka this AM
EDIT. I've just realised you've quoted a tweet and it's not your work. So I'll shut up now.
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@MajorRage said in World Test Championship:
@booboo said in World Test Championship:
Great idea! Do we need to add the poms to this as they are in with a shout and trousered Sri Lanka this AM
EDIT. I've just realised you've quoted a tweet and it's not your work. So I'll shut up now.
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@booboo said in World Test Championship:
@MajorRage said in World Test Championship:
@booboo said in World Test Championship:
So, new topic so we can track the path to 70% ...
Firstly, result of Fourth Test Aus v Ind
Great idea! Do we need to add the poms to this as they are in with a shout and trousered Sri Lanka this AM
EDIT. I've just realised you've quoted a tweet and it's not your work. So I'll shut up now.
But it's worth a separate topic as we've got it it in other topics like 'Blackcaps v Pakistan'.
I think we need to consolidate.
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@MajorRage re England. They need to pants SL then go 3- nil v India ...
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@booboo said in Black Caps v Pakistan:
Not sure how right this guy is ...
And am assuming his % probabilities are assuming each of the 2,700 odd outcomes have equal chance of occurring, when of course one team is likely to be more favoured over another in any given game, mesding wuth his actual probabilities ...
Or he MAY be full of shit ...
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If my maths is right:
AUSTRALIA
Current points percentage: 73.8
76.7 (322 out of 420)What’s left (max
180150 points):-
India
21 home tests(30pts per win, 10pts per draw) -
South Africa 3 away tests (40pts per win, 13pts per draw)
Also: 2-test series in Bangladesh cancelled (120pts not contested)
What they need to top 70 per cent:
10090 more points (win 3 out of54 against India and South Africa; or drawbothlast against India and win 2 against South Africa)INDIA
Current points percentage: 70.2
72 (390 out of 540)What’s left (max
180150 points):-
Australia
21 away tests(30pts per win, 10pts per draw) -
England 4 home tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)
What they need to top 70 per cent:
120110 more points (win 4 out of65 against Australia and England; or win 3 and draw32)ENGLAND
Current points percentage: 65.2
60.8 (292 out of 480)What’s left (max
240180 points):-
Sri Lanka
21 away tests(60pts per win, 20pts per draw) -
ndia 4 away tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)
What they need to top 70 per cent:
220160 more points (winbothremaining against Sri Lanka; and win 3 and draw 1 against India) -
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Have tidied the above up a bit in the cold light of day. Hopefully easier to read and included the Poms beating Sri Lanka.
Will update as results happen.
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So looks like there are two paths to the final. South Africa winning the series by any margin, or India drops a game against England.
If India win in Brisbane today then they can drop a game vs England and still get through, but those scenarios work for an Aus win or draw.
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@Cyclops do you know if a draw is preferable to an Aus win today?
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@rotated said in World Test Championship:
@Cyclops do you know if a draw is preferable to an Aus win today?
Surely the answer is; "it depends"
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@rotated said in World Test Championship:
@Cyclops do you know if a draw is preferable to an Aus win today?
It depends.
A loss means India must sweep England - single draw knocks them out.
But it also gives Australia an extra pathway - a win and two draws in South Africa.
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So Australia now need two wins and a draw or three wins.
2 wins and 2 draws will be enough for India.
Seems inevitable now that India will be one of the teams at Lords.
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@Cyclops said in World Test Championship:
So Australia now need two wins and a draw or three wins.
2 wins and 2 draws will be enough for India.
Seems inevitable now that India will be one of the teams at Lords.
How do we get there ?
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@MN5 said in World Test Championship:
@Cyclops said in World Test Championship:
So Australia now need two wins and a draw or three wins.
2 wins and 2 draws will be enough for India.
Seems inevitable now that India will be one of the teams at Lords.
How do we get there ?
If Australia don't make it, we do. Pretty much.
Edit: not pretty much. Definitely. It's either India or England, they can't both make it. So if Australia don't make it to SA, or if they lose any over there, we're in.
Don't mind our chances.
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Is the Aus SA series in SA? What is the covid situation there right now?
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@delicatessen said in World Test Championship:
@MN5 said in World Test Championship:
@Cyclops said in World Test Championship:
So Australia now need two wins and a draw or three wins.
2 wins and 2 draws will be enough for India.
Seems inevitable now that India will be one of the teams at Lords.
How do we get there ?
If Australia don't make it, we do. Pretty much.
Edit: not pretty much. Definitely. It's either India or England, they can't both make it. So if Australia don't make it to SA, or if they lose any over there, we're in.
Don't mind our chances.
They will be hurting after this series. I expect a backlash.
Would be nice if Bangladesh would play a couple of tests here as I'd expect a damn good hiding there.
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@canefan said in World Test Championship:
Is the Aus SA series in SA? What is the covid situation there right now?
Yes it's in SA.
They've got plenty of the COVID, everyone's making the right noises about making it happen atm, but time will tell. -
@delicatessen shaky ground i reckon. They blew off the poms and obviously weren't concerned at losing all that coin.
Meanwhile, good luck England with a Virat Kohli thinking about what the bub made him miss out on😄
He'll be determined as all hell -
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@Bovidae does this improve or hinder NZs chances of making the final?
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@Canes4life As mentioned above, we should be cheering for India to beat England and SA to beat Aust in their upcoming series.
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@Bovidae said in World Test Championship:
@Canes4life As mentioned above, we should be cheering for India to beat England and SA to beat Aust in their upcoming series.
This breaks it down and shows all scenarios but the simple way is that either the SA series does not go ahead or if it does Oz either lose one test or draw two. Apparently drawn games between these sides on SA soil are very rare.
EDIT: no doubt further complications will arise such as series being started but not finished,
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I saw something on one of the cricket sites, the simplest way for the BC's to make the final is for SA to win one test against the Aussies.
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@Gunner said in World Test Championship:
I saw something on one of the cricket sites, the simplest way for the BC's to make the final is for SA to win one test against the Aussies.
Certainly doable. Come on the
BoksProteas !!!!! -
@Gunner said in World Test Championship:
I saw something on one of the cricket sites, the simplest way for the BC's to make the final is for SA to win one test against the Aussies.
Yes. As above. SA to win one or draw two.
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@MN5 said in World Test Championship:
@Cyclops said in World Test Championship:
So Australia now need two wins and a draw or three wins.
2 wins and 2 draws will be enough for India.
Seems inevitable now that India will be one of the teams at Lords.
How do we get there ?
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It's all got a bit of a covid feel to it. Don't anticipate anything and think about something else till the time comes.😒
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@Crucial said in World Test Championship:
@Bovidae said in World Test Championship:
@Canes4life As mentioned above, we should be cheering for India to beat England and SA to beat Aust in their upcoming series.
This breaks it down and shows all scenarios but the simple way is that either the SA series does not go ahead or if it does Oz either lose one test or draw two. Apparently drawn games between these sides on SA soil are very rare.
I’ve read about that as well.
Port Elizabeth - 31 tests, 5 draws
Wanderers - 42 tests, 11 draws
Newlands - 58 tests, 11 draws
Kingsmead - 44 tests, 14 draws (don’t think they play tests there much anymore) -
Again if my maths is right, updating the info from Stuff gets:
AUSTRALIA
Current points percentage: 69.2 (332 out of 480)
What’s left (max 120 points):
- South Africa 3 away tests (40pts per win, 13pts per draw)
What they need to top 70 per cent:
88 more points: win minimum of 2 of 3 against South Africa and draw the other (can’t lose one)
INDIA
Current points percentage: 71.7 (430 out of 600)
What’s left (max 120 points):
- England 4 home tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)
What they need to top 70 per cent:
74 more points (win 3 out of 4 England; or win 2 and draw 2)
ENGLAND
Current points percentage: 65.2 (352 out of 540)
What’s left (max 180 points):
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Sri Lanka 1 away test (60pts per win, 20pts per draw)
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India 4 away tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)
What they need to top 70 per cent:
152 more points (win remaining against Sri Lanka; and win 3 and draw 1 against India)
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I think that (if we make it) I would rather play India in English conditions at Lords anyway. We seem to have frailties (mentally and technically) versing the Aussies. India haven't been comfortable in our conditions which would be more like the English ones.
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@Snowy Agree. That is why I said previously that we should hope India beats England, and SA wins a test.
I'd rather play India at a neutral venue that should offer plenty for our bowlers than face England at home with the Duke ball.
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@Bovidae I thought that I read that the top team is the home team and they get to choose the ball? If we get there we will likely be second so it could be any ball. We might have an SG.
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I don't know about the ball, just assuming because it's at Lords they would use the Duke. Southee, Boult and co would prefer to as well. India have been critical of the SG balls so might not be that keen either.
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Sri Lanka 381 all out, Tea Day 2
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SL 381
Eng 331 for 9 stumps day 3You'd normally be picking a draw from that point. Unless the Lankans collapse.
Or do the Lankans try and manufacture a chase?
England HAVE to win to retain any hope.
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@booboo said in World Test Championship:
SL 381
Eng 331 for 9 stumps day 3You'd normally be picking a draw from that point. Unless the Lankans collapse.
You called it.
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@Bovidae so, option A
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So 6 wicket win to Pomgolia.
Keeps them alive, well at least keeps their potential to exceed 70% alive.
Will need to have a look at the potential for both India and England to exceed 70%.
The more I think about it our best chance remains with the Proteas denying Australia, as India v England is probably an either- or. (As above will need to spreadsheet a bit tomorrow to check).
Have I said I've always liked South Africa?
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@booboo said in World Test Championship:
The more I think about it our best chance remains with the Proteas denying Australia, as India v England is probably an either- or. (As above will need to spreadsheet a bit tomorrow to check).
I'm still really not sure they will play it. England couldn't manage it -- unless the vaccine is enough protection
