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    World Test Championship

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    • booboo
      booboo last edited by booboo

      So, new topic so we can track the path to 70% ...

      Firstly, result of Fourth Test Aus v Ind

      MajorRage 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
      • MajorRage
        MajorRage @booboo last edited by MajorRage

        @booboo said in World Test Championship:

        So, new topic so we can track the path to 70% ...

        Firstly, result of Fourth Test Aus v Ind

        Great idea! Do we need to add the poms to this as they are in with a shout and trousered Sri Lanka this AM

        EDIT. I've just realised you've quoted a tweet and it's not your work. So I'll shut up now.

        booboo 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 1
        • booboo
          booboo @MajorRage last edited by booboo

          @MajorRage said in World Test Championship:

          @booboo said in World Test Championship:

          Great idea! Do we need to add the poms to this as they are in with a shout and trousered Sri Lanka this AM

          EDIT. I've just realised you've quoted a tweet and it's not your work. So I'll shut up now.

          🙂

          booboo 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
          • booboo
            booboo @booboo last edited by booboo

            @booboo said in World Test Championship:

            @MajorRage said in World Test Championship:

            @booboo said in World Test Championship:

            So, new topic so we can track the path to 70% ...

            Firstly, result of Fourth Test Aus v Ind

            Great idea! Do we need to add the poms to this as they are in with a shout and trousered Sri Lanka this AM

            EDIT. I've just realised you've quoted a tweet and it's not your work. So I'll shut up now.

            🙂

            But it's worth a separate topic as we've got it it in other topics like 'Blackcaps v Pakistan'.

            I think we need to consolidate.

            1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
            • booboo
              booboo @MajorRage last edited by booboo

              @MajorRage re England. They need to pants SL then go 3- nil v India ...

              1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
              • booboo
                booboo last edited by

                @booboo said in Black Caps v Pakistan:

                Not sure how right this guy is ...

                And am assuming his % probabilities are assuming each of the 2,700 odd outcomes have equal chance of occurring, when of course one team is likely to be more favoured over another in any given game, mesding wuth his actual probabilities ...

                Or he MAY be full of shit ...

                1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                • booboo
                  booboo last edited by booboo

                  If my maths is right:

                  AUSTRALIA

                  Current points percentage: 73.8 76.7 (322 out of 420)

                  What’s left (max 180 150 points):

                  • India 2 1 home tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)

                  • South Africa 3 away tests (40pts per win, 13pts per draw)

                  Also: 2-test series in Bangladesh cancelled (120pts not contested)

                  What they need to top 70 per cent:

                  100 90 more points (win 3 out of 5 4 against India and South Africa; or draw both last against India and win 2 against South Africa)

                  INDIA

                  Current points percentage: 70.2 72 (390 out of 540)

                  What’s left (max 180 150 points):

                  • Australia 2 1 away tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)

                  • England 4 home tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)

                  What they need to top 70 per cent:

                  120 110 more points (win 4 out of 6 5 against Australia and England; or win 3 and draw 3 2)

                  ENGLAND

                  Current points percentage: 65.2 60.8 (292 out of 480)

                  What’s left (max 240 180 points):

                  • Sri Lanka 2 1 away tests (60pts per win, 20pts per draw)

                  • ndia 4 away tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)

                  What they need to top 70 per cent:

                  220 160 more points (win both remaining against Sri Lanka; and win 3 and draw 1 against India)

                  1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                  • booboo
                    booboo last edited by

                    Have tidied the above up a bit in the cold light of day. Hopefully easier to read and included the Poms beating Sri Lanka.

                    Will update as results happen.

                    1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                    • Cyclops
                      Cyclops last edited by

                      So looks like there are two paths to the final. South Africa winning the series by any margin, or India drops a game against England.

                      If India win in Brisbane today then they can drop a game vs England and still get through, but those scenarios work for an Aus win or draw.

                      1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                      • rotated
                        rotated last edited by

                        @Cyclops do you know if a draw is preferable to an Aus win today?

                        Rapido Cyclops 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 0
                        • Rapido
                          Rapido @rotated last edited by

                          @rotated said in World Test Championship:

                          @Cyclops do you know if a draw is preferable to an Aus win today?

                          Surely the answer is; "it depends"

                          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 3
                          • Cyclops
                            Cyclops @rotated last edited by

                            @rotated said in World Test Championship:

                            @Cyclops do you know if a draw is preferable to an Aus win today?

                            It depends.

                            A loss means India must sweep England - single draw knocks them out.

                            But it also gives Australia an extra pathway - a win and two draws in South Africa.

                            1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                            • Cyclops
                              Cyclops last edited by

                              So Australia now need two wins and a draw or three wins.

                              2 wins and 2 draws will be enough for India.

                              Seems inevitable now that India will be one of the teams at Lords.

                              MN5 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                              • MN5
                                MN5 @Cyclops last edited by

                                @Cyclops said in World Test Championship:

                                So Australia now need two wins and a draw or three wins.

                                2 wins and 2 draws will be enough for India.

                                Seems inevitable now that India will be one of the teams at Lords.

                                How do we get there ?

                                D taniwharugby 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                • D
                                  delicatessen @MN5 last edited by delicatessen

                                  @MN5 said in World Test Championship:

                                  @Cyclops said in World Test Championship:

                                  So Australia now need two wins and a draw or three wins.

                                  2 wins and 2 draws will be enough for India.

                                  Seems inevitable now that India will be one of the teams at Lords.

                                  How do we get there ?

                                  If Australia don't make it, we do. Pretty much.

                                  Edit: not pretty much. Definitely. It's either India or England, they can't both make it. So if Australia don't make it to SA, or if they lose any over there, we're in.

                                  Don't mind our chances.

                                  MN5 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                  • canefan
                                    canefan last edited by

                                    Is the Aus SA series in SA? What is the covid situation there right now?

                                    D 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                    • MN5
                                      MN5 @delicatessen last edited by

                                      @delicatessen said in World Test Championship:

                                      @MN5 said in World Test Championship:

                                      @Cyclops said in World Test Championship:

                                      So Australia now need two wins and a draw or three wins.

                                      2 wins and 2 draws will be enough for India.

                                      Seems inevitable now that India will be one of the teams at Lords.

                                      How do we get there ?

                                      If Australia don't make it, we do. Pretty much.

                                      Edit: not pretty much. Definitely. It's either India or England, they can't both make it. So if Australia don't make it to SA, or if they lose any over there, we're in.

                                      Don't mind our chances.

                                      They will be hurting after this series. I expect a backlash.

                                      Would be nice if Bangladesh would play a couple of tests here as I'd expect a damn good hiding there.

                                      1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                      • D
                                        delicatessen @canefan last edited by

                                        @canefan said in World Test Championship:

                                        Is the Aus SA series in SA? What is the covid situation there right now?

                                        Yes it's in SA.
                                        They've got plenty of the COVID, everyone's making the right noises about making it happen atm, but time will tell.

                                        Siam 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                                        • Siam
                                          Siam @delicatessen last edited by

                                          @delicatessen shaky ground i reckon. They blew off the poms and obviously weren't concerned at losing all that coin.

                                          Meanwhile, good luck England with a Virat Kohli thinking about what the bub made him miss out on😄
                                          He'll be determined as all hell

                                          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                                          • Bovidae
                                            Bovidae last edited by

                                            This is the latest table:

                                            Canes4life 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                            • Canes4life
                                              Canes4life @Bovidae last edited by

                                              @Bovidae does this improve or hinder NZs chances of making the final?

                                              Bovidae 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                              • Bovidae
                                                Bovidae @Canes4life last edited by

                                                @Canes4life As mentioned above, we should be cheering for India to beat England and SA to beat Aust in their upcoming series.

                                                Crucial 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                                                • Crucial
                                                  Crucial @Bovidae last edited by Crucial

                                                  @Bovidae said in World Test Championship:

                                                  @Canes4life As mentioned above, we should be cheering for India to beat England and SA to beat Aust in their upcoming series.

                                                  This breaks it down and shows all scenarios but the simple way is that either the SA series does not go ahead or if it does Oz either lose one test or draw two. Apparently drawn games between these sides on SA soil are very rare.

                                                  https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/cricket/black-caps/123996350/what-indias-gabba-win-means-for-the-black-caps-and-the-world-test-championship

                                                  EDIT: no doubt further complications will arise such as series being started but not finished,

                                                  ACT Crusader 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                                                  • G
                                                    Gunner last edited by

                                                    I saw something on one of the cricket sites, the simplest way for the BC's to make the final is for SA to win one test against the Aussies.

                                                    MN5 Crucial 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 2
                                                    • MN5
                                                      MN5 @Gunner last edited by

                                                      @Gunner said in World Test Championship:

                                                      I saw something on one of the cricket sites, the simplest way for the BC's to make the final is for SA to win one test against the Aussies.

                                                      Certainly doable. Come on the Boks Proteas !!!!!

                                                      1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                                                      • Crucial
                                                        Crucial @Gunner last edited by

                                                        @Gunner said in World Test Championship:

                                                        I saw something on one of the cricket sites, the simplest way for the BC's to make the final is for SA to win one test against the Aussies.

                                                        Yes. As above. SA to win one or draw two.

                                                        1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                                        • taniwharugby
                                                          taniwharugby @MN5 last edited by taniwharugby

                                                          @MN5 said in World Test Championship:

                                                          @Cyclops said in World Test Championship:

                                                          So Australia now need two wins and a draw or three wins.

                                                          2 wins and 2 draws will be enough for India.

                                                          Seems inevitable now that India will be one of the teams at Lords.

                                                          How do we get there ?

                                                          alt text

                                                          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 6
                                                          • Siam
                                                            Siam last edited by

                                                            It's all got a bit of a covid feel to it. Don't anticipate anything and think about something else till the time comes.😒

                                                            1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                                            • ACT Crusader
                                                              ACT Crusader @Crucial last edited by

                                                              @Crucial said in World Test Championship:

                                                              @Bovidae said in World Test Championship:

                                                              @Canes4life As mentioned above, we should be cheering for India to beat England and SA to beat Aust in their upcoming series.

                                                              This breaks it down and shows all scenarios but the simple way is that either the SA series does not go ahead or if it does Oz either lose one test or draw two. Apparently drawn games between these sides on SA soil are very rare.

                                                              I’ve read about that as well.

                                                              Port Elizabeth - 31 tests, 5 draws
                                                              Wanderers - 42 tests, 11 draws
                                                              Newlands - 58 tests, 11 draws
                                                              Kingsmead - 44 tests, 14 draws (don’t think they play tests there much anymore)

                                                              1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                                              • booboo
                                                                booboo last edited by

                                                                Again if my maths is right, updating the info from Stuff gets:

                                                                AUSTRALIA

                                                                Current points percentage: 69.2 (332 out of 480)

                                                                What’s left (max 120 points):

                                                                • South Africa 3 away tests (40pts per win, 13pts per draw)

                                                                What they need to top 70 per cent:

                                                                88 more points: win minimum of 2 of 3 against South Africa and draw the other (can’t lose one)

                                                                INDIA

                                                                Current points percentage: 71.7 (430 out of 600)

                                                                What’s left (max 120 points):

                                                                • England 4 home tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)

                                                                What they need to top 70 per cent:

                                                                74 more points (win 3 out of 4 England; or win 2 and draw 2)

                                                                ENGLAND

                                                                Current points percentage: 65.2 (352 out of 540)

                                                                What’s left (max 180 points):

                                                                • Sri Lanka 1 away test (60pts per win, 20pts per draw)

                                                                • India 4 away tests (30pts per win, 10pts per draw)

                                                                What they need to top 70 per cent:

                                                                152 more points (win remaining against Sri Lanka; and win 3 and draw 1 against India)

                                                                1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                                                                • Snowy
                                                                  Snowy last edited by

                                                                  I think that (if we make it) I would rather play India in English conditions at Lords anyway. We seem to have frailties (mentally and technically) versing the Aussies. India haven't been comfortable in our conditions which would be more like the English ones.

                                                                  Bovidae 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 3
                                                                  • Bovidae
                                                                    Bovidae @Snowy last edited by

                                                                    @Snowy Agree. That is why I said previously that we should hope India beats England, and SA wins a test.

                                                                    I'd rather play India at a neutral venue that should offer plenty for our bowlers than face England at home with the Duke ball.

                                                                    Snowy 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                                                                    • Snowy
                                                                      Snowy @Bovidae last edited by

                                                                      @Bovidae I thought that I read that the top team is the home team and they get to choose the ball? If we get there we will likely be second so it could be any ball. We might have an SG.

                                                                      1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                                                      • Bovidae
                                                                        Bovidae last edited by

                                                                        I don't know about the ball, just assuming because it's at Lords they would use the Duke. Southee, Boult and co would prefer to as well. India have been critical of the SG balls so might not be that keen either.

                                                                        booboo 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                                                        • booboo
                                                                          booboo @Bovidae last edited by

                                                                          Sri Lanka 381 all out, Tea Day 2

                                                                          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                                                          • booboo
                                                                            booboo last edited by

                                                                            SL 381
                                                                            Eng 331 for 9 stumps day 3

                                                                            You'd normally be picking a draw from that point. Unless the Lankans collapse.

                                                                            Or do the Lankans try and manufacture a chase?

                                                                            England HAVE to win to retain any hope.

                                                                            Bovidae 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                                                            • Bovidae
                                                                              Bovidae @booboo last edited by

                                                                              @booboo said in World Test Championship:

                                                                              SL 381
                                                                              Eng 331 for 9 stumps day 3

                                                                              You'd normally be picking a draw from that point. Unless the Lankans collapse.

                                                                              You called it.

                                                                              booboo 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                                                                              • booboo
                                                                                booboo @Bovidae last edited by

                                                                                @Bovidae so, option A

                                                                                1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                                                                • booboo
                                                                                  booboo last edited by booboo

                                                                                  So 6 wicket win to Pomgolia.

                                                                                  Keeps them alive, well at least keeps their potential to exceed 70% alive.

                                                                                  Will need to have a look at the potential for both India and England to exceed 70%.

                                                                                  The more I think about it our best chance remains with the Proteas denying Australia, as India v England is probably an either- or. (As above will need to spreadsheet a bit tomorrow to check).

                                                                                  Have I said I've always liked South Africa?

                                                                                  nzzp Bovidae 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                                                                  • nzzp
                                                                                    nzzp @booboo last edited by

                                                                                    @booboo said in World Test Championship:

                                                                                    The more I think about it our best chance remains with the Proteas denying Australia, as India v England is probably an either- or. (As above will need to spreadsheet a bit tomorrow to check).

                                                                                    I'm still really not sure they will play it. England couldn't manage it -- unless the vaccine is enough protection

                                                                                    P 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
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