Extreme Weather
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Not really intending this to be a Climate Change thread, more just a place to comment on extremes of weather that maybe experienced by Ferners around the place.
I'm starting it because of the extraordinary amount of rain we've had just inland from here overnight.
Tropical Cyclone Seth formed off the NQ coast a week or so ago, trundled South East along the coast, got up to a Cat 2 (I think), and slowly fizzled out to a sub tropical depression somewhere east of us this week.
Ex-TC Seth hung around a bit out there then started to head west in towards land on Friday.
We got a few showers but it was quite interesting / fun watching the circular pattern of the clouds on the radar (http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR083.loop.shtml ... watching the weather radar is a favourite pastime in Australia if weather is threatening). The eye was still quite defined.
Had a couple of reasonably heavy showers but nothing really to write home about.
But late Friday the low stalled a little South West of us and proceeded to dump a metric fuckton of rain on the Mary Valley.
Below is a screenshot of the intensity of the rainfall as measured by the weather radar at the centre of the crosshairs for the 24 hours until 9am this morning.
This can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR08D.loop.shtml#skip (Until 9am tomorrow when obviously it updates...).
The bright red is what the intensity predicts is >250mm (10 inches) of rain in that 24 hour period. That is a shitload rain ...
But ... the above image link only goes up to 250mm. The weather station at the weather radar site (Mt Kanigan, the "Gympie" radar) recorded 650mm (!!) (25.6 inches) in 24 hours!
Multiple other rain gauges in the area received over 200mm, 300mm, 400mm, 500mm +.
(If you're quick enough, rain gauge readings are here: http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/seast.shtml, select 24 hour readings. Anything red is >100mm
)This on top of whatever they got on Friday, and post 9am today.
Storm seems to be dissipating now, but still the odd decent cell about. And if you're quick to click you may see the system still obviously circulating.
Anyway, lack of stock on our supermarket shelves no longer just due to COVID staff shortages. Bruce Highway is cut off both North and South of Maryborough so we'll be waiting a while to restock. And Maryborough's CBD about to get very, very wet.
Hervey Bay in no danger of flooding, and we're on top of a hill, in case you were worried.
Shared as it was quite remarkable watching this happen. I doubt it is "unprecedented", but is certainly as much rain as I can remember in our area.
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@booboo said in Extreme Weather:
Marodian 673mm
I was in the mountains near Queenstown in 99 when they flooded. Got 850mm in 24 hours. Was like standing under a shower going full bore, but everywhere. Insane amounts of water
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Just checked the BOM intensity-frequency-duration calcs for the location (lat long) of Meridian. The 100 Year storm (to use the old terminology, it's now the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability) is "only" 292mm.
There used to be a link to longer return periods/ lower AEPs but I can't find it now.
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Sunny and still in Wellington midweek and hit 30 degrees on the car temperature gauge.
If that’s not extreme I don’t know what is.
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@booboo said in Extreme Weather:
But late Friday the low stalled a little South West of us and proceeded to dump a metric fuckton of rain on the Mary Valley.
Below is a screenshot of the intensity of the rainfall as measured by the weather radar at the centre of the crosshairs for the 24 hours until 9am this morning.The wife told me her sister (who lives about 2km down the road) rang her early in the morning to say the river was rising and was just under the bridge so she may be flooded in. Took the scenic route and got through regardless.
Anything over half a metre of rain in 24 hours is something to behold.
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@antipodean that's right we're neighbours aren't we?
Hope they ok?
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@booboo said in Extreme Weather:
@antipodean that's right we're neighbours aren't we?
Hope they ok?
Yeah they should be fine thanks. There's a new bridge over the worst creek so that alleviates a lot of the problems. Really bad floods submerge the lowest lying paddocks but that's what makes them good. 👍
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@booboo That is a serious storm alright, with so many extraordinary characteristics. I see an inch of rain along the eastern side - over the coastal strip, uniformly.
Head west from Rainbow Beach for forty miles and they copped 10 inches from Friday afternoon to early morning Saturday. You'll not often see a deluge like that, even in sub-tropical Queensland.
The cyclone impact here - Gold Coast Seaway / Broadwater - has been limited to a day of moderate seas and south easterlies gusting to 20 knots for Thursday, light rain no more than half an inch daily.
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Unfortunately no word on 14yo swept away. Feel for her dad who was found hanging in tree.
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@antipodean triggered the frogs ... didn't listen to the audio before.
Anyway...
Fuck. This.
Australia equals hottest day on record at 50.7C
Onslow in Western Australia recorded 50.7C on Thursday, equalling a record set in 1962.
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@mikedogz yeah the humidity the last 2-3 weeks has been worse than I can ever remember it!
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@taniwharugby your weather yuckier than ours.
Similar temp, nowhere near the humidity.
This is not normal though.
Seems to have been a real mild summer, especially this last week.
P.S. you guys got the cyclone dragging in the tropics eh? We've got a nice southerly. So I expect that balances it up.
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@booboo we got one heading in from Vanuatu, lots of wind, bit of rain, but humidity meant to drop tomorrow, instead of 25+ at night be mid-teens.
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Raining a little again ...
... Flooding everywhere. Like fucking everywhere in SEQ.
Records set to be broken.
Not as intense as the other week but still massive falls and more widespread.
Mary River set to break records for flood levels.
Lockyer Valley reminiscent of 2011 fatal floods.
Screenshots following from Bureau of Meterology Gympie radar. Can't paste the link sorry.
First shot 24 hours to 9am this morning.
Second is from 9am till now (about 7pm ... 10 or so hours)
Pleased to not be in a river valley, and on top of a hill.
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@booboo feels like it's been raining for a month here in Sydney. Fun times to be in the middle of a reno
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@voodoo said in Extreme Weather:
@booboo feels like it's been raining for a month here in Sydney. Fun times to be in the middle of a reno
Weird old summer here.
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The tropical lows that seem to turn into cyclones in the far North and track across to WA seem to be missing this year, looks like they are headingSE instead. Maybe they will arrive a bit later than normal
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@voodoo said in Extreme Weather:
@booboo feels like it's been raining for a month here in Sydney. Fun times to be in the middle of a reno
I just look at the weather app, rain for the next 8 days. Fuck this shit, may as well be in Palmy.
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@nevorian this event wasn't (or "isn't" as it's on-going south of us) a TC or Ex-TC, unlike the previous one.
5 dead in flood waters in this event.
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I have never seen so much fucking rain. Only just made it to work this arvo, not expecting to get home.
This shit seems worse than 2011, especially the Northside. The Brisbane River might not burst its banks but the localised flooding is smashing us. People getting stranded everywhere, families in houses panicking because their house is going under and they are trapped...
And people are still out and about sight seeing and expecting help when they get into trouble...
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@crazy-horse said in Extreme Weather:
I have never seen so much fucking rain. Only just made it to work this arvo, not expecting to get home.
This shit seems worse than 2011, especially the Northside. The Brisbane River might not burst its banks but the localised flooding is smashing us. People getting stranded everywhere, families in houses panicking because their house is going under and they are trapped...
And people are still out and about sight seeing and expecting help when they get into trouble...
Yep, it's very bad. All access points getting slowly cut off. The Southerners who moved here recently will be getting a very bad shock.
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Wivenhoe Dam looks to be over safe capacity so that's going to need addressing as well?
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@nta said in Extreme Weather:
Wivenhoe Dam looks to be over safe capacity so that's going to need addressing as well?
I thought they were discharging already?
6 dead now
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@booboo said in Extreme Weather:
@nta said in Extreme Weather:
Wivenhoe Dam looks to be over safe capacity so that's going to need addressing as well?
I thought they were discharging already?
6 dead now
Watching reports this morning to suggest it was 100.2% - so if there discharging, they're not going fast enough.
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Crazy fucking vision down there. You guys just aren't designed to deal with that much water
Flow on effect up north. Brutal brutal heat. Last night almost cyclonic winds.
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@nta said in Extreme Weather:
@booboo https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-25/wivenhoe-dam-flood-water-release/100863418
Saw a headline that Wivenhoe was at 160% but couldn't click on the link.
And now work has closed all SEQ offices including ours. Not sure why we're closed, we're unaffected apart from the fact we can't get milk for our coffee as the roads are closed. Supermarkets look like early stages of a pandemic.
Another fatality overnight. 7 dead in QLD now plus one in NSW.
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@booboo said in Extreme Weather:
Saw a headline that Wivenhoe was at 160% but couldn't click on the link.
Yeah Twitter talk last nighti had with an expert had it 180% - they're planning releases but high tide today will need navigating.
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@nta said in Extreme Weather:
Wivenhoe Dam looks to be over safe capacity so that's going to need addressing as well?
Nah, 100% is just drinking water capacity. There's all the room above the spillway which accounts for the other percentage.
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That was crazy.
So many people were out yesterday during the worst of it. What people don't seem to understand is that they can find themselves in trouble in the blink of an eye and emergency services having no way of getting to them in a hurry. When roads are blocked, they are blocked. Emergency services aren't getting through either. I know of a guy, no idea who he is/was, getting washed away from near a shopping centre and emergency services were unable to get anywhere near where he was last seen. Who knows, he might be ok but now it's just a matter of waiting to see if a body is found.
And emergency services were operating with a skeleton crew. Many were simply unable to get to work. At times like yesterday you need to be prepared to look after yourself. Help may not be coming.
Now the poor bastards in Northern NSW are in the firing line.
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@crazy-horse loved the vision of the dudes in Logan hammering around on jetskis
love a bit of stupidity
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@antipodean I have learned much in the last 24 hours about hydro shit.
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@nta said in Extreme Weather:
@antipodean I have learned much in the last 24 hours about hydro shit.
Growing up with Warragamba Dam I learnt most of it earlier which I think made me Western Sydney's "Chief Hydrological and Hydrodynamical Engineer".
After (another) flooding through Windsor I was speaking to an old farmer out that way who gave me the best relevant advice; 'live on a floodplain, buy a boat'.
