All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023
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Lets start at number one, loosehead prop.
Joe Moody is 33 and can barely carry the ball now, is an average defender, and hasn't been a dominant scrummager at international level for at least two seasons. Still good in the maul. Only in the running as a starter, IMO. If he's in our first choice world cup 23 then we're probably in trouble.
The other options in the squad that were allowed to play test rugby were Bower and Tu'inukuafe. Neither are what you'd call dynamic. Tu'inukuafe really only in there for scrummaging and maul work. Bower as injury cover.
DeGroot is more athletic, but scrummaging and ability to play at test level are unexamined.
Further options are Aidan Ross and Alex Hodgman. Ross was very good in SRA, but faded in SRTT. Hodgman got suspended for a particularly stupid high tackle in SRA, but came back pretty well, and was very good in the SRTT final.
Apparently there's a young guy at the Crusaders, but did he play much NPC? I didn't notice him.
Atu Moli may play rugby again someday.
I suspect that Ofa Tu'ungafasi, with an off-season to recover from injury, will return to his 2019 role, and play a lot at loosehead.
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@tim can we add Saula Mau to the list?
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@kiwi_expat Has he played NPC? I know he's young, but I thought he was a tighthead?
EDIT:
Tighthead prop Saula Ma’u arrived in Dunedin in 2018 from Auckland Grammar having already been identified as an elite player with selection in the NZ Schools team that included current Blues player Sam Darry and Crusaders prop Tamaiti Williams.
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@tim said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
Apparently there's a young guy at the Crusaders, but did he play much NPC? I didn't notice
Tamati Williams he was injured through the NPC
played LH during SR last season.But I hear he is switching to TH for 2022
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@chris Thanks Chris.
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I've taken last years Super Rugby stats and adjusted them for the amount of game time. The figures are essentially what we might expect from each player if they were to play for 80 mins.
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@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
I've taken last years Super Rugby stats and adjusted them for the amount of game time. The figures are essentially what we might expect from each player if they were to play for 80 mins.
Makes you wonder what Hodgman did wrong, how was he left out for Bower?
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The Australian props, as a comparison. Angus Bell is a beast - though he only played about 3 games. I imagine over more games, his average running metres would decrease.
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@gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
I've taken last years Super Rugby stats and adjusted them for the amount of game time. The figures are essentially what we might expect from each player if they were to play for 80 mins.
Makes you wonder what Hodgman did wrong, how was he left out for Bower?
I don't imagine he would've gone worse in the scrum than Bower? I can't remember, though
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@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
I've taken last years Super Rugby stats and adjusted them for the amount of game time. The figures are essentially what we might expect from each player if they were to play for 80 mins.
Makes you wonder what Hodgman did wrong, how was he left out for Bower?
I don't imagine he would've gone worse in the scrum than Bower? I can't remember, though
He has pretty long levers by comparison which may not help, but from the other side, whereas Bower is a bit small Hodgman has considerable size to use around the park - as supported by those stats.
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@gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
I've taken last years Super Rugby stats and adjusted them for the amount of game time. The figures are essentially what we might expect from each player if they were to play for 80 mins.
Makes you wonder what Hodgman did wrong, how was he left out for Bower?
I don't imagine he would've gone worse in the scrum than Bower? I can't remember, though
He has pretty long levers by comparison which may not help, but from the other side, whereas Bower is a bit small Hodgman has considerable size to use around the park - as supported by those stats.
Yea, you'd expect his size would mean he's more likely to have impact at a ruck/tackle too, which wouldn't be reflected in those stats.
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@bobily2 that is some godawful reading for Joe & Karl.
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@bones said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 that is some godawful reading for Joe & Karl.
Might be time for both to be dropped, unless they have stellar seasons in SR.
Hodgman, Ross, and De Groot, with Tu'ungufasi covering both sides?
Oli Norris as bolter?
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@bobily2 Where are those stats from? I've found the Rugbypass data to be pretty poor.
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@tim said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bones said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 that is some godawful reading for Joe & Karl.
Might be time for both to be dropped, unless they have stellar seasons in SR.
Hodgman, Ross, and De Groot, with Tu'ungufasi covering both sides?
From @Chris post above, Williams might be being set up to be the new Ofa/Moli.
I'd personally prefer Ofa to focus on TH and us develop another both side option.
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@tim sounds good to me. I thought Norris had a bit of a (maybe rednblack) fan club here?
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@bones said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
Norris
I added him in an edit shortly after my initial post.
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@tim yeah I saw, I was just surprised he hadn't really been talked about already. I know nothing of him, but the stats look handy.
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@bones said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@tim yeah I saw, I was just surprised he hadn't really been talked about already. I know nothing of him, but the stats look handy.
He's had fuck-all game time so far, but I hope he turns out good. That data doesn't have total minutes played, but I assume his are really low.
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@tim said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 Where are those stats from? I've found the Rugbypass data to be pretty poor.
The data is from Opta, so the stats provider that NZ rugby uses.
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@gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bones said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@tim yeah I saw, I was just surprised he hadn't really been talked about already. I know nothing of him, but the stats look handy.
He's had fuck-up game time so far, but I hope he turns out good. That data doesn't have total minutes played, but I assume his are really low.
I'll try include actual mins played in anything else I put out there. Ollie Norris had 300 mins.
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@gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
He's had fuck-up game time so far, but I hope he turns out good. That data doesn't have total minutes played, but I assume his are really low.
Yeah, there will be guys who come off the bench late in the game, and will probably get relatively more run metres and less tackles because of that.
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@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bones said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@tim yeah I saw, I was just surprised he hadn't really been talked about already. I know nothing of him, but the stats look handy.
He's had fuck-up game time so far, but I hope he turns out good. That data doesn't have total minutes played, but I assume his are really low.
I'll try include actual mins played in anything else I put out there. Ollie Norris had 300 mins.
I love this data btw, it's really cool!
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@gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@bones said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@tim yeah I saw, I was just surprised he hadn't really been talked about already. I know nothing of him, but the stats look handy.
He's had fuck-up game time so far, but I hope he turns out good. That data doesn't have total minutes played, but I assume his are really low.
I'll try include actual mins played in anything else I put out there. Ollie Norris had 300 mins.
I love this data btw, it's really cool!
Great, I'll try and share little snippets of it where it might be relevant. I don't have much for NPC or All Blacks, unfortunately. But if people find reliable sources for these I can see if i can do something with those too.
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Tu'inukuafe, and Laulala for that matter, played much better when they were at the Chiefs. So did Manu.
I would be investing time into de Groot and Norris over the next 2 seasons.
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@tim I rate both De Groot and Hodgman, Bower less so. Karl T is a strength man but doesn't offer much with the ball in hand.
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really hoping moli can get back on field. i thing he is listed as a loosehead at chiefs. norris needs to improve scrumming and was second pick for waikato at loosehead. great prospect great workrate but improvements needed to get to next level
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@sparky said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
@tim I rate both De Groot and Hodgman, Bower less so. Karl T is a strength man but doesn't offer much with the ball in hand.
Karl T does actually seem to be okay on attack - he just doesn't carry as often as some of the props. Similarly, he doesn't make many tackles. Presumably he needs to keep working on his fitness.
As much as I like the guy, unless he is winning scrums, there doesn't seem to be much reason to be picking him ahead of some of these other options e.g. Hodgman.
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@bobily2 yeah, similar to Franks at the end of his career - unless he's absolutely smashing it at scrum time instead of just being fairly reliable, there's no point unless nobody else can be fairly reliable.
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Ypu could always rely on Franks to move bodies at ruck time. He was really excellent at it
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@mariner4life if he got there
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October 2023 might be a year too far for Moody, and a year too early for the likes of Norris and Brewis.
Bower's scrummaging and physicality are not at the required level against teams such as England, Ireland, France and SA.
So it is urgent to develop players like De Groot and Hodgman. They are young, big, dynamic and physical. Their scrummaging needs a lot of improvement but this can be fixed. But I am more worried about their lack of mongrel. They must be tested during the series against Ireland where they would face the world's best THP. A serious challenge that should provide some answers or more head-scratching. -
Norris looks like he warrants closer watching from those stats as does Numia.
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@crucial yeah, can't say I've paid huge attention to his scrummaging, but I don't recall him being that bad. He's often doubted for his size but he doesn't show it around the field.
If he can come on, hold up his side and provide a point of difference I'm all for having a look.
Edit: Numia I mean.
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Norris is a converted no.8 so is still learning his trade. I thought he showed a big improvement in his scrummaging last year for both the Chiefs and Waikato. There are quite a few young props in the 21-23 yr age bracket who just need more game time and experience.
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With Newell's squat record, and a rugbypass article on Tamaiti Williams moving to tighthead, I've been thinking a little more about tighthead props recently, so I've run some numbers for them.
These are the stats for the NZ tightheads over last years Super Rugby competitions. Once again, I've adjusted them for the amount of game time. The figures are essentially what we might expect from each player if they were to play for 80 mins - though the "Time" column now gives a rough idea of how many mins they spent on the field (rough because I've had to make some assumptions, like every game being 80 mins, due to data limitations).
And as a comparison, the props from the Australian teams.
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@bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:
With Newell's squat record, and a rugbypass article on Tamaiti Williams moving to tighthead, I've been thinking a little more about tighthead props recently, so I've run some numbers for them.
These are the stats for the NZ tightheads over last years Super Rugby competitions. Once again, I've adjusted them for the amount of game time. The figures are essentially what we might expect from each player if they were to play for 80 mins - though the "Time" column now gives a rough idea of how many mins they spent on the field (rough because I've had to make some assumptions, like every game being 80 mins, due to data limitations).
And as a comparison, the props from the Australian teams.
Fletcher Newell looks like the new Franks alright. Fuck-all metres, no defenders beaten, passes from the pod, misses 2 tackles for every 10 made.
Doesn't stack up that well, but I'm still confident for him.
Jager looks good, Laulala looks very average, and Ofa's stats show his upside. Mafileo looks like a Lomax that can scrummage.
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Newell only played 50 odd mins, so might not be enough to go off. He was a very good runner a couple years back for the u20 team, but it wouldn't surprise me if he gets that trained out of him.
I might see if I can get his NPC stats (off rugby pass - ew)
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Those Oz stats show up Tupou's lack of tackle workrate. Maybe he is told to hang back to punch the ball up from a turnover or maybe he's a lazy fecker when he hasn't got the ball?
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