Springboks v Wales - the decider
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Boks make 11 changes -
South Africa:
15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Lodewyk de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 1 Trevor Nyakane.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Albertus Smith, 21 Elrigh Louw, 22 Francois de Klerk, 23 Willie le Roux. -
I fear for Wales in this one .... reckon something like 9-3 at halftime, then the Bomb Squad to wreak havoc on a tired Welsh team.
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@MajorRage said in Springboks v Wales 3:
I fear for Wales in this one .... reckon something like 9-3 at halftime, then the Bomb Squad to wreak havoc on a tired Welsh team.
Boks will be fired up for this one. They don't take losing at home very well. I predict a controlled demolition to put Wales back in their box. V forward orientated to begin, with big crash ball runners hitting in waves to dominate the gain line.
It won't be pretty, but will be effective.
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@Daffy-Jaffy said in Springboks v Wales 3:
Boks make 11 changes -
South Africa:
15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Jaden Hendrikse, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Lodewyk de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 1 Trevor Nyakane.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Albertus Smith, 21 Elrigh Louw, 22 Francois de Klerk, 23 Willie le Roux.11 of the same XV that started the first test.
Changes are 1 Nykanye for Nché , 7 PSDT for Mostert, 9 Hendrikse for Faf and 10 Pollard for Jantjies
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Yeah, it could get ugly. Welsh team will be tired, this mob will be rested.
Worried about the scrum in particular, we've lost our first and second tight heads to injury. Sam Wainwright did really well when he came on for his debut on Saturday, but starting will be a huge test for him. I can't even remember who the next TH in line is.
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Head says SA, heart says Wales
As @gibbon-rib wrote, essentially the 1st Test team with flotsam jettisoned.
And the better for it.
The referee (anyone???) will have a huge impact on how this match is played.
The scrum will be fascinating.
SA was really angling in last test. Will be interesting to see their tactics for this one.
I was mightily impressed with Wainwright. He could be the surprise to the Boks.
Our lineout throwing was atrocious last test, allowing the Boks to kick to touch knowing they had better than 50% chance of regaining possession.
We need to make them work for every metre.
I'd start with Anscombe and give him the opportunity to get our backs moving.
And I'd start with Watkin and Tompkins in the midfield. Hardy, Biggar, North to the bench.
Our bench is pretty handy too.
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@MiketheSnow Matthew Carley (ENG) is the ref for this one.
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@MiketheSnow said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
Hardy, Biggar, North to the bench.
Sounds like a bodybuilder slogan!
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@gibbon-rib no worries about the scrum CT Stadium surface is sandy and not good for scrumming. This will be Etsebeth 100th and Bongi 50 test
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@OomPB said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
@gibbon-rib no worries about the scrum CT Stadium surface is sandy and not good for scrumming. This will be Etsebeth 100th and Bongi 50 test
Sounds like we should just agree to make them uncontested for this game, eh?
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@OomPB
Couple of great milestones, that always adds to the occasion. I was surprised to read that Etzebeth is only 30, it feels like he's been around forever(You probably think the same thing about George North - made his debut on the 2010 tour to South Africa, also still only 30)
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That's a team to, as they say up north, marmalise Wales. Boks by 20
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@Machpants as much as I enjoy the boks pulverizing their opponents, is it too much to ask for them to also score more points than Wales this time?
In all seriousness, when they’ve got the ball beyond first centre and held onto it they’ve caused the Welsh real problems. Guess it must be more complicated than it seems from the safety of my couch.
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Springboks camp this week around the corner (I live at Africa most southern point)at Hermanus this week and will only travel Friday to Cape Town. It's going to be a tough tight test. Look like nice weather.
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Yes, the weather so far looks set fair. It may be a bit breezy come kick-off time but no rain at least.
I do worry about the Cape Town surface as you mentioned. Not sure it is going to make power-scrumming a factor.And while this looks like a good Bok team, I am always cautious when we play Wales. The Welsh have a structure that seems to stifle the Boks. Has been that way for a good few years now. And added to that, Wales seem to convert almost every opportunity for points into... well... points. So while many are predicting a big Bok win, I am not. You can get good odds for a Wales victory - a mistake from the bookies imo and if I were a betting man, I'd consider a flutter on them well worth the gamble.
Hope I'm wrong and the Boks put it all together on the day but my prediction is for a tight finish to the series.
Which as an aside, is a hats-off moment to Wales. They have been great value on this tour and irrespective of the series outcome can be very proud of their efforts.
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@Billy-Webb said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
Yes, the weather so far looks set fair. It may be a bit breezy come kick-off time but no rain at least.
I do worry about the Cape Town surface as you mentioned. Not sure it is going to make power-scrumming a factor.And while this looks like a good Bok team, I am always cautious when we play Wales. The Welsh have a structure that seems to stifle the Boks. Has been that way for a good few years now. And added to that, Wales seem to convert almost every opportunity for points into... well... points. So while many are predicting a big Bok win, I am not. You can get good odds for a Wales victory - a mistake from the bookies imo and if I were a betting man, I'd consider a flutter on them well worth the gamble.
Hope I'm wrong and the Boks put it all together on the day but my prediction is for a tight finish to the series.
Which as an aside, is a hats-off moment to Wales. They have been great value on this tour and irrespective of the series outcome can be very proud of their efforts.
Thanks mate
This is a 'will' v 'can' situation.
Will Wales win the 3rd Test?
I've got a tenner that says yes. But I'm not betting £20
Can Wales win the 3rd Test?
Absolutely
Despite a deck of cards and Tomos Williams handing back possession to the Boks at the death we were 1 kick away from at least drawing the 1st Test
We played like dog shit in the 2nd Test and won
We have a full complement to choose from and we can't possibly have a repeat of the lineout woes from the 2nd Test
Yes the SA 23 is the strongest fielded to date and should have the skill & experience to maximise home field advantage but we're playing at sea level and the Welsh team know they're on the cusp of something very, very big
It's going to be magic
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@MiketheSnow said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
It's going to be magic
I certainly hope so since this will be my first Test attendance since you know..., the plague.
And I am joining you in putting some (a little) money on Wales. At 6.6 to 1 it is worth it. And will (very) slightly lessen my heartbreak if the Boks lose.
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@Billy-Webb said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
@MiketheSnow said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
It's going to be magic
I certainly hope so since this will be my first Test attendance since you know..., the plague.
And I am joining you in putting some (a little) money on Wales. At 6.6 to 1 it is worth it. And will (very) slightly lessen my heartbreak if the Boks lose.
Yep. Always bet on the opposition and then there will be a crumb of comfort if you lose. Pray for anything but a draw!
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@Catogrande said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
Pray for anything but a draw!
Amen to that!
I'd rather (cough, splutter) Wales makes history than a tame drawn series. -
@Billy-Webb I am 100% with you. My biggest worry is our aerial game. Hendricks and Willemse is my worry.
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@OomPB said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
@Billy-Webb I am 100% with you. My biggest worry is our aerial game. Hendricks and Willemse is my worry.
Agreed. Our fielding of the contestable high kicks from Wales was well below par last weekend.
But that was a different back 3, so maybe ok?
I rate Willemse as a player but he is not a sure thing under the high ball. For that matter, neither is Willie though. And I though Gelandt wasn't flash at that aspect last weekend either. So if I were Wales, I'd be hoisting a fair few bombs.Having said that, Mapimpi and Kolbe are pretty good in this regard. (And given Cheslin's size I am always in awe of his abilities here).
Why the concern about Hendrikse though? I thought he had a good game last week and that his box kicking was largely good?
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@Billy-Webb if we want to beat Wales we have to put phases together in THEIR half. He maybe wasn't bad last week but we know his kicking was bad all season for the Sharks. This box kick game plan is just to much for me. Maybe the Stormers attacking gameplan spoiled me.
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I get the sentiment Oom.
Reality is that Nienaber (and Rassie) like the box-kicking game plan. It is our go-to from static 2nd-phase positions.
What you and I can then hope for, is that we can keep / regain possession, recycle and create 3rd, 4th and more phase possession to open things up a bit. I rate the attacking talent from 10 to 15. It would be great if they get a few more chances. -
@Billy-Webb the silver lining to a loss maybe they have to change their plan.
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Hopefully our bench can see us home
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@Catogrande the rugby gods frown on this.
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@MiketheSnow seems a good time to say how impressive your starting locks, both hookers and all your loosies have been. Played out of their skin.
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That looks like a strong Welsh team to me Mike.
Your thoughts?p.s. I thought Anscombe was superb last week. Probably made the key difference for the win imo. So I am a little surprised he doesn't start ahead of Biggar - but what do I know about Welsh rugby
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@Billy-Webb said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
@MiketheSnow said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
It's going to be magic
I certainly hope so since this will be my first Test attendance since you know..., the plague.
And I am joining you in putting some (a little) money on Wales. At 6.6 to 1 it is worth it. And will (very) slightly lessen my heartbreak if the Boks lose.
No shame in buying some insurance.
Enjoy the match, should be a fantastic occasion, I'm jealous. And I hope you find something comforting to spend your winnings on.
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@gibbon-rib said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
And I hope you find something comforting to spend your winnings on.
Hahaha. Cheeky bugger!
But thanks. So super excited to be attending a test again. -
What’s the score with Wyn Jones? From Lions starting prop a year ago to Wales bench option. Injury? Form? He looked the goods to me over the last year or two.
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It's more-or-less the same team as the first two tests isn't it?
Surprised and pleased to see Dillon Lewis is playing, I assumed he'd be out after that injury last week.
Biggar and Hardy is the more conservative half-back combo. Expect plenty of box kicking again. Anscombe was great last week, him and Tomos Williams will come on later when the game might be a bit more open.
The Welsh back three are pretty decent, but our problem is lack of any attacking creativity. Tompkins and North are both decent players, but it's not really clicking as a centre partnership - and our game plan is pretty unambitious too. I know we have to play to our strengths, but there are times where it's just so turgid it's tough to watch.
I know the Boks have the class to win big if they hit their straps, but they've been far from their best so far (obviously the wholesale changes have been a factor there). If we can play smart, the forwards can keep us in the fight, and LRZ can magic another couple of tries out of thin air (although not quite as thin as the previous weeks) then we could just do it.
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@Smuts said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
@MiketheSnow seems a good time to say how impressive your starting locks, both hookers and all your loosies have been. Played out of their skin.
Agreed, except throwing the fucking ball in
They've both been shit
Beard owes us a big match. Rowlands has been very good.
Lydiate is reborn
Faletau is just warming up. He's a 3rd Test player who loves the deep water.
Reffell has been the revelationReally good balance in the backrow
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@Billy-Webb said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
That looks like a strong Welsh team to me Mike.
Your thoughts?p.s. I thought Anscombe was superb last week. Probably made the key difference for the win imo. So I am a little surprised he doesn't start ahead of Biggar - but what do I know about Welsh rugby
I'm disappointed and surprised too
But maybe Pivac is hoping we can be in touch with 20-30 to go and then our bench can bring us home
Much like the Kiwis with Foster I've given up what's inside Pivac's head
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@Catogrande said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
What’s the score with Wyn Jones? From Lions starting prop a year ago to Wales bench option. Injury? Form? He looked the goods to me over the last year or two.
Shit domestic campaign
Injury
Working his way back into form -
@MiketheSnow Ah. Shame.
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@gibbon-rib said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
It's more-or-less the same team as the first two tests isn't it?
Surprised and pleased to see Dillon Lewis is playing, I assumed he'd be out after that injury last week.
Biggar and Hardy is the more conservative half-back combo. Expect plenty of box kicking again. Anscombe was great last week, him and Tomos Williams will come on later when the game might be a bit more open.
The Welsh back three are pretty decent, but our problem is lack of any attacking creativity. Tompkins and North are both decent players, but it's not really clicking as a centre partnership - and our game plan is pretty unambitious too. I know we have to play to our strengths, but there are times where it's just so turgid it's tough to watch.
I know the Boks have the class to win big if they hit their straps, but they've been far from their best so far (obviously the wholesale changes have been a factor there). If we can play smart, the forwards can keep us in the fight, and LRZ can magic another couple of tries out of thin air (although not quite as thin as the previous weeks) then we could just do it.
Biggar is our handbrake
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@MiketheSnow said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
@Smuts said in Springboks v Wales - the decider:
@MiketheSnow seems a good time to say how impressive your starting locks, both hookers and all your loosies have been. Played out of their skin.
Agreed, except throwing the fucking ball in
They've both been shit
Beard owes us a big match. Rowlands has been very good.
Lydiate is reborn
Faletau is just warming up. He's a 3rd Test player who loves the deep water.
Reffell has been the revelationReally good balance in the backrow
All of this.
I'm biased, but I think Faletau has been absolutely world class for most of his career. I reckon he's very underrated, even though a lot of people do rate him pretty highly. If he hadn't been hindered by some major injuries (and sometimes his teammates) then he would be considered an all time great. There is nobody better at controlling and rescuing a ball from the back of a scrum that is being completely vaporised, which is a priceless skill for a Welsh number 8.
He's going to have a shocker now, isn't he?
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@MiketheSnow you’re fed up with a guy who delivered a first win in SA, came within a gnat’s ball hair and one daft penalty away from a second and now has you within 80 minutes of a first series win against the World Champion, Lions vanquishing boks.
No pleasing some people…
