Posts made by Duluth
RE: US Politics
No jobs = higher crime rate.
Yes, the 2012 plan had an amnesty for the current tax paying employees who had behaved themselves. How generous that would be was the question.. too strict would equal crime.
From memory it was on the generous side.
The more important part of the plan was the disincentive for new illegal immigrants
His illegal immigration stance is very targeted. Somebody who comes in, contributes to a local business and causes no social issues isn't on his radar at all.
He claims anyone crossing illegally is on his radar. 'They need to be vetted' etc etc.
However, by not removing the carrot of relatively easy employment for illegals, more illegals will arrive.
Other countries manage it better
Even if a barrier was 100% effective there is still the problem of airports. Around half of the illegal immigrants in the US arrived at an airport, sea port or crossed a land border legally and overstayed.
Well there's not much sport to discuss right now so I thought I'd make a fool of myself with some shitty predictions.
Copying the idea from this article: ESPN how-every-ufc-weight-class-title-decided-next-year
Who will hold each belt on 01/01/2020?
Division Champ at the end of the year Flyweight TJ Dillashaw Bantamweight TJ Dillashaw Featherweight Max Holloway Lightweight Tony Ferguson Welterweight GSP Middleweight Israel Adesanya Light Heavyweight Jon Jones Heavyweight Stipe Miocic Woman's Strawweight Tatiana Suarez Woman's Flyweight Valentina Shevchenko Woman's Bantamweight Amanda Nunes Woman's Featherwight Megan Anderson
Flyweight I believe the rumours that they are shutting this division down. So it all depends on this weekends fight. If TJ isn't killing himself to make weight (it's looking like a really tough cut) he'll have too much power
Bantamweight TJ slightly better than everyone else
Featherweight No contest for Max. Only question is if he moves up a weight before the end of the year
Lightweight Ferguson stops the Khabib winning streak if the fight ever happens
Welterweight GSP gets offered a shitload of cash to fight at welterweight. UFC desperate for a more marketable champ than Woodley
Middleweight Nigerian Kiwi beats Aussie Maori in kiwi-ish title fight
Light Heavyweight Jones. Booo! I guess the prediction here is that he doesn't move up and doesn't fail a drug test
Heavyweight I think Stipe beats DC is they fight again. But the probably don't. DC retires after beating Lesnar then Stipe reclaims vacant title
Woman's Strawweight Rose looked great against Joanna both times but I don't think she matches up well with Suarez
Woman's Flyweight Easy for Valentina
Woman's Bantamweight Easy for Nunes
Woman's Featherweight Division probably gets shut down. Nunes doesn't seem keen to fight Cyborg (probably smart - she doesn't have much to gain and could easily lose). Cyborgs contract ends soon and I don't think she gets resigned. I'm picking Nunes to get stripped of the belt while she defends at 135 and if the division still exists Anderson is the best of the rest.
RE: US Politics
Here's a simple rundown of what already exists in the way of 'wall'
It's an important point. The public argument at the moment has been simplified to "Wall" or "No Wall". It isn't even close to being accurate.
The wall Trump campaigned will not get built because that is not what he is asking for. His designs have got shorter and more like current fencing. Also the distance covered has shrunk.
Of course it would be suicide for Trump to go into 2020 without a wall. However it's difficult for him to shrink his barriers anymore and call it a wall. On the other side the Dems don't want him to say "I built the wall".
Also, how retarded have certain Dems arguments have been? If a wall is immoral then so are existing fences. Why don't they put forward legislation remove existing barriers? Surely they are immoral too? Oh they are just talking shit?
If the Dems were smart they would put up a border security bill with at least the same amount of funding. It should limit barriers to existing fence designs (Trump already claimed they work, see twitter fight with Acosta two days ago). The bill could be called the "Extend and Repair Existing Fences Act"
RE: US Politics
Cede some funding to stengthen the weak parts of the border, as well as some investment in tech to better detect breaches & drug smuggling.
I agree. But that is basically the policy over the last ~15years. It would be hard for Trump to declare a political victory on his biggest campaign promise (or was that 'lock her up'?)
A complete wall is symbolic. The argument against it is the lack of effectiveness. Some areas have natural barriers and no crossings.. drones make more sense here. Then there is the problem that most illegal immigrants arrive at airports and overstay..
I find it fascinating that Trump is meant to be so hard on illegal immigration but won't implement the Republican's 2012 plan. If you want to limit illegal immigration, make it hard to hire illegal immigrants.
A mandatory and improved e-verify system would make it simple for an employer to check the status of a new hire. If they still hire an illegal immigrant the employer would be prosecuted
(Of course there would still be issues with how tough to be on current long term illegals etc)
No jobs, therefore no carrot to cross the border. Self deportation was the term used at the time
In 2012 Trump said this policy was "maniacal" and "mean spirited". Judging by policy decisions he hasn't changed his stance on this
I'm not sure how seriously to take his illegal immigration stance without a policy shift that targets employers.
RE: US Politics
Maybe, but the problem for the Democrats is that they were all for a wall a few years back, but now Trump wants one....
When the shutdown happened over Obama's Health Care plans, the Democrats were up in arms, calling it an attack on democracy as it was a key election pledge which he (reasonably) had a right to get money for. Now Trump wants to built a wall as it was an election pledge, they block funds and call his plans an affront to democracy.
Dumb politics which plays into Trump's hands and makes his opponents look soft on crime, drug-smuggling and illegal immigration - and hypocrites.
All true but why is this fight happening now?
Republicans held Congress for two years and Trump did not push the wall hard during this time. If it is so important (an emergency!) why not negotiate harder with the Republicans? He could have shutdown Government back in 2017 or 2018. Why wait until the Democrats have Congress?
The simple answer is because of 2020. This is good politics to play right now to set up the next Presidential race. The Dems will oppose it and appear unreasonable and people will forget how little importance Trump placed on the wall for two years
RE: US Politics
Isn't the non approval of funding for Trump's ridiculous wall simply an outcome of the democratic system in place?
Yes. So are shutdowns and other forms of brinkmanship.
The talk of the Executive being able to go around Congress is where we enter bullshit territory
(Yes, Obama got away with it more than once.. but that was an abdication of Congressional power because Congress was worried about the politics of making the President follow the Constitution. It wouldn't happen in this political climate.)