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bobily2

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Recent Best Controversial

    Rugby Stats
  • B bobily2

    @dan54 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:

    @tim personally don't take a hell of a lot of notice of stats as 1; they tell you bugger all and 2; there are so many different ones for same matches that don't match up, you wonder how they get counted by different stats keepers!

    I find it better to watch a game of rugby (preferably live) and take notice of how players go. . Watch how quick a player gets off ground to be available to part of next play whether attack or defence.. We actually did a bit of a look at stats when I was coaching, and as a coaching group found them pretty useless in working out how good a player was. For tackles for instance, you could see a player had attempted and made say 6 tackles, but unless stats actually tell you if they were in a position to make difference etc doesn't help all that much, or whether the player actually had to move far to make tackles etc. They good for Joe Bloggs who doesn't really watch the game as a rule, but would never use tham as a tool for picking a team.

    I'm a data analyst, so I have to defend the use of stats, or I couldn't have any professional pride - albeit the defense will be closer to a muddled collection of thoughts, rather than a well laid out argument. But, aside from that, I also believe they are of huge value in most areas of life, particularly sport. Though I think it is important to note that we don't necessarily see a lot of the more important stats - though they are likely still collected and circulated to the coaching staff).

    Our memories are far from perfect. We can't possibly process all the information we experience, so we use a bunch of shortcuts, which are usually pretty useful. However, these lead to a whole bunch of biases and flaws e.g. confirmation bias, where one looks to confirm information they already believe. The result being that intelligent, informed rugby viewers can see the same game, but come out with different opinions. Stats are an objective alternative that can be used in situations where people might disagree - e.g. if some people think Akira Ioane is lazy, and others disagree you can find stats to resolve this including tackles made, rucks hit, turnovers won, metres run without the ball and compare to other players in a similar position.

    At some of the sport analytic conferences I've been to, the sport stat providers talked about how they had their own analysts who'd look at how closely particular stats would predict a win. They'd then try to market these to the sports writers/reporters... however, the reporters weren't really interested in going beyond the usual information we see (e.g. metres gained, tackle breaks). Which is probably why that's all that is available online. I know for AFL they record stats on 300 different areas, and I imagine it would be similar for rugby. So I agree, tackles made isn't a particularly informative stat on its own, but that doesn't mean that stats are useless - just that 'tackles made', on it's own, is not particularly useful. You could, for example, measure how fast it takes for each player to get off the ground, or how long it takes the halfback to get the ball into the hands of his 10. Sport stats providers can probably also do this more accurately than a coach with a clipboard can.

    I'm also not sure if it necessarily matters that different companies come up with different stats for the same game. It is possible/probable that some of the more popular companies (e.g. Opta) worked with rugby teams to define what was considered a tackle, and have some strong in-house criteria, that might differ from other companies. Personally, as long as they'd consistently end up with similar figures after recording a game multiple times, it wouldn't bother me that they end up with different results to other companies.

    Additionally, there is a popular quote in statistics that goes 'All models are wrong, but some are useful'. The concept being that you'll never perfectly predict an outcome, but if you can predict it very closely then that is really all you need for a model to be useful. I'd say that it a similar idea is useful when considering rugby stats - or even most stats. 'All data is wrong, but some is useful'. They may not perfectly match what happened, but it doesn't mean they can't be useful e.g. if it was found that the Opta's output for percentage of tackles made that were dominant predicted the number of turnovers won, which in turn, predicted the likelihood of a team winning, then the error in this measurement doesn't worry me too much as, even with the error, I have something that could be used to predict future performance.

    A real world analogy might be an organisation predicting NZ's population. Maybe this organisations prediction is 10,000 people out, due to a proportion of the population being 'hard-to-reach', and little information existing about them. However, if this organisations prediction of NZs population went up over 5 years, you'd still expect there would be more people in the country, and it might be worth making sure that there was infrastructure there to deal with this increase in population.

    I know of at least one prominent rugby team that had their own formula for working out a players impact on defense that included tackles made, the number of dominant tackles, the time the player took to get off the ground, and they believed this was an important part of their success - so stats are definitely valued by some professional coaches. A lot of sports teams in America have found that there is huge value in recording all sorts of different stats, and have whole teams dedicated to interpreting and modeling them - I think some sports are a little better suited to this than rugby, but I wouldn't think it'd be any less relevant in rugby than in American football.

    In general, I think you'd want to combine all of the information you have available, and consider all of. Do your own personal views seem to be reflected in the data? If not, why? Is it because the data is inadeuqate, or is it because your views are wrong? I'd expect that coaches would be integrating their thoughts from watching games with training results, stats, intuition to form a complete picture. I guess it'd be similar to a crime scene - forensic evidence is probably the gold standard. Having DNA that links a killer to a crime is hard to argue with. However, if every single witness says that perpetrator was female and your DNA evidence was from a male, you might want to look at it a little more closely.

    You can probably view it as pieces of a puzzle that we will never completely finish. With both data and a coaches insight, you can fill in more of the puzzle then just data or a coaches view alone.


  • Pasifika - how do we fix this?
  • B bobily2

    NZR contributes more than we take from Pacific Islsnd teams. There are a number of born and bred NZers throughout the PI sides - msny more than we 'poach'.

    This game, as I understand it, was a combination of European players not being made available and MIQ restrictions meaning the professional players were not available. Therefore its not a reflection of the true strength of the Tongan side and likely won't ever be repeated.
    Best ways for PI teams to improve is for World Rugby to work with clubs to ensure all players are able to represent their country without penalties and to open up restrictions for players who are no longer representing their original tier 1 team (aside from the 7s loophole).


  • Chiefs 2022
  • B bobily2

    Introducing the new unrealistic body standards for a Super Rugby hooker

    cecae40c-dec7-4fc6-82f5-7795cd420478-image.png


  • All Blacks EOYT 2021
  • B bobily2

    @bobily2 said in What should the eoyt squad look like?:

    @mn5 said in What should the eoyt squad look like?:

    @akan004 said in What should the eoyt squad look like?:

    Scott Barrett and Patty T returning to NZ.

    https://www.allblacks.com/news/young-lock-josh-lord-called-into-the-all-blacks/

    20-year-old Lord, together with All Blacks Sam Cane, Samuel Whitelock, Dane Coles and Shannon Frizell, will meet up with the squad in the Northern Hemisphere.  Lord comes in, with locks Scott Barrett and Patrick Tuipulotu returning to New Zealand this week for family reasons.
    
     
    
    All Blacks Head Coach Ian Foster said: “From a physical point of view, we have come through the Fortinet Rugby Championship really well.  Therefore, we’ve decided to add fewer players than first anticipated for the next part of our 12-week Tour.  Also having the Bunnings Warehouse NPC continue into November means we are also able to bring over potential replacements, if required.”
    
     
    
    With the All Blacks squad unable to return to New Zealand, the squad will relocate from the Gold Coast to the Sunshine Coast tomorrow.  The squad will have a week off and a training camp next week before flying out to the USA on Sunday 17 October. The All Blacks play the USA Eagles in Washington DC on Saturday 23 October before Test matches against Wales (Saturday 30 October), Italy (Saturday 6 November), Ireland (Saturday 13 November) and France (Saturday 20 November).
    
     
    
     
    
    Josh Lord – mini bio
    
     
    
    Born: 17 January 2001
    Position: Lock
    Height: 2.02m, Weight:106 kg
    Province: Taranaki
    Super Rugby Team: Chiefs
    
     
    
    After first making his provincial debut for Taranaki in 2019, Josh Lord was called into the Chiefs wider training squad in 2020 and then the full squad this year. He made his Sky Super Rugby debut against the Crusaders in 2021 and played five matches.  Lord has proved himself as a versatile lock and at 2.02m has impressed with his lineout work and with ball in hand. Lord plays both his provincial and Super Rugby alongside current All Blacks lock Tupou Vaa’i. Hailing from the small township of Owhango in the central North Island, Lord attended Hamilton Boys’ High School and first came onto the national radar with the University of Waikato Under 20 side as well as the New Zealand Under 20 team in 2018. 
    
    

    Jeepers, 106kg isn’t much. Get that boy on some Roids Creatine !!!!!!!!

    He's listed as 113kg on the All Blacks app, which looks to have been updated recently for the new NPC season.

    Having said that, he is also listed as being 30 year old. So might not be the most accurate


  • Pasifika SR team
  • B bobily2

    @canes4life said in Pasifika SR team:

    @stargazer Apples and Oranges. From what I’ve seen of Love so far he looks to be a better prospect long term. He’s bigger, he’s better defensively, I think his all round game is better and I think he is the 10 for the future. Love is certainly better if you compare where McClutchie was at the same age.

    I think it’s a little over the top saying he’s the coaches pet, but I guess that’s an automatic tag that you Hawkes Bay lot put on Wellington players these days.

    Anyway, when they square off against one another we will get the real picture.

    I know tackle percentages aren't everything, but Love is at 58% tackles completed, and McClutchie is at 83% for the current NPC season.


  • All Blacks 2022
  • B bobily2

    @Machpants said in All Blacks 2022:

    @Daffy-Jaffy said in All Blacks 2022:

    Any one got cheats notes off interesting points? Foster puts me to sleep, slow drawl

    The last few years were about "building depth", this year is about building combinations.

    He wasn't particularly excited about Jordie playing at 12. He thought he was one of our best last year with his work under the highball etc. However, perhaps he is an option there.

    He views Rieko as a wing playing centre, but has been very impressed by his growth in the last year.

    Something like he wants to see RTS improving as a link for the rest of the backline, and wants to see more of his kicking game, but likes what he sees as a ball carrier.

    Versatility might become increasingly important in the loose forwards.


  • All Blacks v Ireland, 2021 NH Tour
  • B bobily2

    @duluth said in All Blacks v Ireland, 2021 NH Tour:

    @taniwharugby said in All Blacks v Ireland, 2021 NH Tour:

    @Tim just reading some of the stats, 50 tackles by our starting loosies, 42 by Blackadder and Dalton.

    Unfortunately the Irish dominated the contact area. Momentum wasn’t stopped and the ball wasn’t slowed down. They made easy metres through the tackle & clean out and the resulting quick ball kept us on the back foot

    Yup. Static defense (except for TJ) from us didn't help, either. And if it wasn't static we were giving away penalties


  • All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023
  • B bobily2

    fc91ff85-6994-432b-9c93-a20f9487b593-image.png

    I've taken last years Super Rugby stats and adjusted them for the amount of game time. The figures are essentially what we might expect from each player if they were to play for 80 mins.


  • Hurricanes v Blues
  • B bobily2

    @sparky

    Playing a fullback in the midfield at a RWC has never really worked for us in the past


  • All Blacks 2021
  • B bobily2

    96005f31-85c4-4b02-832d-e5a4de0e2595-image.png

    Laumape actually had more try assists than I might've expected last year.

    I collected a few years of Super Rugby data. This is the combined info from last year (includes Trans- Ta$man and Aotearoa).


  • Blues v Highlanders
  • B bobily2

    I'm becoming increasingly convinced we should do away with TMOs completely. The decisions are no less controversial, we just end up wasting a lot of time in getting to the poor decisions.


  • 2021 Crusaders
  • B bobily2

    Ranger and Mckay have short term contracts with the Crusaders

    Stuff

  • All Blacks v Ireland, 2021 NH Tour
  • B bobily2

    Easy to say after the fact (and someone might've already), but I really felt Taukei'aho should have been involved in some capacity. His ball-running and accurate lineout throwing would've been useful in a tight gam e like this.

    Restarts have been shoddy at times this year, lineouts have been bad. Our scrum isn't dominant as it once was (to be fair, I don't think Franks was ever that dominant - not like Hayman). And our basic skills seem to fall apart under pressure - not an easy fix!


  • Blues 2022
  • B bobily2

    RT
    Jonathan Ruru:
    As a kid all I ever wanted to do when I grew up was to play rugby. So for just a young Māori boy from Napier, being able to do that in NZ for the last few years has been nothing short of a dream come true.
    I’ve been part of some special teams, achieved some amazing feats and meet a lot of really good people along the way.
    But I’ve decided to call time on playing footy here in NZ for now and am super excited for the new opportunities that lie ahead.
    Thankyou to all who have helped me in any way. I’m grateful to have you all and be able to continue living this dream.
    Until next time, au revoir ✌🏽
    Artwork: Tane Wolfgramm

    https://scontent.fwlg1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/259438864_439679874180523_1522578542942570402_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=4gR1OmV5kxMAX-mD_yG&_nc_ht=scontent.fwlg1-2.fna&oh=769d81a1ad3ede72bf73c7a9dcde24a0&oe=619E54DB


  • All Blacks 2023
  • B bobily2

    Cool, thanks! I think I can read those into some software and publish a few bits and pieces on it e.g. some more breakdowns by position


  • Highlanders vs Blues
  • B bobily2

    HIGHLANDERS (1-15): Daniel Lienert-Brown, Liam Coltman, Jermaine Ainsley, Manaaki Selby-Rickit, Josh Dickson, Shannon Frizell, James Lentjes, Marino Miakele Tu’u, Aaron Smith (c), Mitch Hunt, Mosese Dawai, Scott Gregory, Fetuli Paea, Ngatungane Punivai, Sam Gilbert

    RESERVES: Andrew Makailo, Ayden Johnstone, Josh Hohneck, Fabian Holland, Gareth Evans, Folau Fakatava, Vilimoni Koroi, Hugh Renton

    Nathan Williamson  /  Mar 23, 2022

    Super Rugby Pacific Teams: All the team news for Round Six

    Super Rugby Pacific Teams: All the team news for Round Six

    Check out all the details for the Super Rugby Pacific teams for round six as they drop:


  • All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023
  • B bobily2

    @gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:

    @bobily2 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:

    @gt12 said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:

    @bones said in All Blacks depth 2022 & 2023:

    @tim yeah I saw, I was just surprised he hadn't really been talked about already. I know nothing of him, but the stats look handy.

    He's had fuck-up game time so far, but I hope he turns out good. That data doesn't have total minutes played, but I assume his are really low.

    I'll try include actual mins played in anything else I put out there. Ollie Norris had 300 mins.

    I love this data btw, it's really cool!

    Great, I'll try and share little snippets of it where it might be relevant. I don't have much for NPC or All Blacks, unfortunately. But if people find reliable sources for these I can see if i can do something with those too.


  • AB squad for the Bledisloe Cup?
  • B bobily2

    @shark said in [AB squad for the Bledisloe Cup?]

    It'd be outstanding if someone with more time than I could post the names, stats, provinces and status of the U20 locks since 2016 or so. Those are the guys we should now be turning to.

    6dd32b32-04d0-4b8d-b59f-63d5140677a4-image.png


  • NPC - news, injuries etc
  • B bobily2

    @african-monkey said in Mitre 10 Cup - news, injuries etc:

    @chris Cameron made a difference to the Canterbury side when he started in the last 2 games of the season against Ta$man and Auckland which saved them from relegation.

    He's not amazing but cops a lot of unnecessary criticism at times. He's certainly NPC standard and would benefit with a decent run at the Canes if he goes there.

    Yea, I don't think he'd get half the criticism if he hadn't been picked for the ABs. The selectors really screwed him over, in a way, as there was no way he had the ability to match people's expectations once that occurred.


  • Pasifika - how do we fix this?
  • B bobily2

    @rapido said in Pasifika - how do we fix this?:

    I have found in my life that everything can be fixed by a dashboard.
    My dashboard to fix PI rugby .....

    What is the problem, who could solve it, how.

    Green if is not a problem or is solvable by themselves.
    Red where they are deficient or if the solutions are things for which they are just flotsam in an ocean (or AB midget-passive tactics-counter attackers in a semifinal, for a rugby metaphor)

    PIgrid.PNG

    Good effort!

    RE: removing central contracting, is this purely a suggestion based on the needs of PI rugby, without any consideration of consequences for other parties (e.g. NZ Rugby)?

    As I feel central contracting is one of the major positives in our current setup.

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