Too long, didn't read.

@Stargazer said in Bledisloe #1:

Ah, another TSF meltdown. Everyone completely overreacting as usual.

If you don’t meltdown after nearly conceding 50 in a Bledisloe game something is wrong with you

@KiwiMurph said in Argentina One: Parramatta, 14 November:

@akan004 said in Argentina One: Parramatta, 14 November:

Akira must be feeling great right now. Poor guy.

this has pre-meditated change written all over it - Frizell was always coming back

Conservative selection group, perfect game to test Akira out in with the top team. Frizzell's had three goes and been adequate at best.

Akira had 29 mins against a fired up Aussie side and had an excellent performance. Would make more sense to see if he could sustain it.

At six , is absolutely clear that Akira is now ahead of Frizzel.

@Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

Level 3 lets more people go to work, but it's hardly a huge improvement on level 4 in terms of the cage doors opening.

However, in good news, apparently, not only is our curve flattening, it's exponentially reducing - halving every 5 days. At this rate, we are probably looking at a total of 6-8 weeks at levels 3&4 (so another 2-4 weeks) and then back to level 2.

The rest of the world is rightly envious of that, because they're generally looking at months of the equivalent of level 3+. 4 weeks seems a bit early to be rolling out the civil liberties flag - human rights and civil liberties are critically important to the NZ democracy, but the most important right is the right to life because the rest are not much use to dead people.

And a cratered economy is a damn sight harder on people on the other side.

This is exactly the sort of scare mongering that drove that poll result.

The original justification for this lockdown was not to eliminate the disease but to prevent our health system from being overwhelmed. That has been achieved and over the last four weeks process and capacity has been added to help even more with that.

So let’s move down the levels fast, test appropriately, contain regional reoccurrence, and get back to normalise life.

Even today Cindy was downplaying the huge impact this is having on the economy. “Doing in tough” is not even close to what’s coming IMO.

So who would have though James Fucking O’Conner would have completely outplayed an All Black ten?

@crucial said in All Blacks Squad for France:

@kiwiinmelb said in All Blacks Squad for France:

This thread is starting to resemble the good old days around AB selection time ,

All we need is Toeava to make himself available .

DMac is the new Toeava

Toeava could play ten.

@Winger said in US Politics:

This is becoming a weird election. I just can't see the Democrats even getting close unless they cheat.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/07/the-democrats-embarrass-themselves-again.php

We are approaching a very weird election in which one of our major parties is taking a stand in favor of rioting, looting, arson, destruction of federal property, and violent attacks on law enforcement. The Democrats seem to think that this is a winning formula. If it is, our republic is doomed. While we may be in deep trouble, I don’t think we are that far gone yet.

I agree with this last bit. But who knows

Of course it's going to be close. You are a prime example of why, people have picked Team A or Team B and no matter what their team does they will vote for it.

Somewhere on cyberspace there is a poster called Fullback that posting as fervently as you are about Biden/Hillary/Bernie.

Helps with disappointment that a quality bloke is lifting the trophy

Nah, you lose the ability for a Japan vs SA or Ireland upset if you do that.

I like the alternative of the plate competition I saw mentioned the other day, so there is more to play for after the top two pool spots.

@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

@bovidae said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

I'm not saying that Hendy's model is correct but I was reading that he used NZ-specific data. Unless these so-called experts think that Singapore has a large, older Maori and Pasifika population too.

Was talking to an ED consultant mate here, and he has done is own estimates based on what is happening in AK. Reckons Hendy is not far off if things were let out of control

Not how it’s playing out overseas. Don’t have to guess, real world examples available.

@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

@bovidae Plus it's a bit specious to say we'd never get those rates because we would go into lockdown when the whole point is those are the predictions with zero controls.

I'm also not saying Hendy is right but who doesn't like a nerd bitch slapping contest?

I guess the point is his predictions seem alarmist when compared to what's actually happening in other countries.

@snowy said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

Before Delta it was possible to get spots in MIQ .

No it wasn't.
I tried for weeks to get a place for my wife after her mother died. Just wasn't possible. That was pre Delta.

Also, sports that the government doesn't like couldn't get spots either while others could. Also pre-Delta.

@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

@rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300413503/covid19-new-zealands-vaccine-rollout-explained-in-13-charts-as-government-talks-up-90-per-cent-target

Thanks for posting that, it's an excellent article.

Good info but much of the 'results' don't show where we end up in 6 weeks time. e.g. the 'doses per 100 pax'. We have about 36% sitting at home waiting until their next jab is done. That would change our position a lot.

I got in with my bookings just before the 6 week gap instead of 3 came along. The science behind that increase didn't seem too conclusive and as this was pre-delta in Auckland and the impetus to speed things up I wonder if they called that one a bit early.
If people were going back for their second after three weeks it would stop this picture of a slowing momentum. They (as TR is doing) would also get new first dose people brought along while second doses are being done. I wonder how many others, especially with teens, are doing the same out of convenience? Don't get your first now, come along in a few weeks when we get our second. It's understandable.
Probably too late now as the messaging gets messy.
Even the whole booking system thing that allowed way too much time per person has backfired a bit given what happened. Lots of folks thought that was the only way and instead they should have just promoted an open slather mass vax approach.
The planning was all good while we were in a safe little bubble but now people want out of this fast and a move to a different approach. That hinges on speeding up the vaxxing and maximum efforts should be going into that. Hammer the message home.

They litterally addressed that in the article. Not sure what you mean.

"The big rush and sudden fall was mostly for first doses, with the rate of second doses staying pretty stable at not much more than 20,000 a day. That suggests in October we will see another spike as the 1m Kiwis who got a first dose in late-August and early September get their second dose after six weeks."

@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

@kirwan as I mentioned above, the initiative re 90% was from NZME, but as I suspected this has likely been the Govt driving this.

I do wonder if they will use L3 and L2 restrictions to help drive further vaccinations - if you want freedoms back, get vaccinated!

Just being softly released by their pets in the press. Same as last year when Taxinda would say they are not planning a lockdown but "be prepared".

She is so dishonest.

@kruse said in Awesome stuff you see on the internet:

@majorrage said in Awesome stuff you see on the internet:

This will no doubt be a repost but I am in tears of laughter every time I see this.

I laughed waaay too hard at that.
It's a goddamn fart joke, and yet I actually laughed out loud.

Edit: fuck, I watched it again, and laughed again.
I feel ashamed, yet happy.

Maybe I'll just watch it on repeat until I no longer laugh.
Which reminds me - I discovered a bonus in my downloaded collection of Archer last night.
Somebody (maybe the actual production company, as it was rather professionally done) - took Archer Season 1 Episode 1 - and re-did it with the titular character replaced by a dinosaur. Video and audio. It seemed like a gimmick which would get pretty old in about 10 seconds... and it nearly did, but then became... remarkably amusing. 20 or 25 minutes of the same gag, but somehow it just kept working... I watched the entire bloody thing, and was still laughing at the stupid gag right near the end.

Had the same effect on me. Sigh, I'm so low brow.

@rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300413503/covid19-new-zealands-vaccine-rollout-explained-in-13-charts-as-government-talks-up-90-per-cent-target

Thanks for posting that, it's an excellent article.

@rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

I'm amazed that you guys are aguing potential percentage numbers.

Today Bloomfield said we may never go back to zero. Gone to L3 regardless. Virus now in 3 gangs, try containing that!. Crossed a provincial border, still gone to L3.

Seems to me they're hinting as hard as can be hinted that elimination is about to blow.

You're discussing the past's vision of a potential future exit.

Its moved.

That's how I'm reading it.

Because of this;

"He (Bloomfeild) said vaccination rates need to be north of 90 per cent before they’re confident of opening up the freedoms of alert level 1."

My take on that is the same as what you say, that these measures are permanent.

@l_n_p said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

We will never get 90% vaccination rates.

That’s just another way of saying the lockdown level is permanent.

Has any other country exceeded 90? From memory one is at 87?

Looking at Denmark again (a very compliant people that buy into the value of being part of a society), and they are at 86.4 for partially vaccinated but 84.4 for fully. Although people are still getting shots it is mostly closing that small gap with about 0.2% new vax starters per day. Maybe in about another month they will be near 90?

So assuming that's the best case, using your term compliant, I don't see how we ever get there.

This feels like an unattainable target to justify the blunt lockdown approach for years, if not forever.

It's doable. On those 12+ Economist eligible stats, Portugal is on 90% now, Ireland nearly 88%?

From afar the lack of clarity from the NZ Goverment feels disingenuous at this point because they know NZ healthcare and ICU capacity, they know their healthcare plans and flex. They will have modelled cases > hospitalisations > deaths with varying levels of controls, and with and without MIQ in place.

Not sure kiwis are compliant but your media sure as hell are subserviant.

If they aren't, then PM refuses to go on the show anymore. And muzzles her ministers.

@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

@kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

We will never get 90% vaccination rates.

That’s just another way of saying the lockdown level is permanent.

Has any other country exceeded 90? From memory one is at 87?

Looking at Denmark again (a very compliant people that buy into the value of being part of a society), and they are at 86.4 for partially vaccinated but 84.4 for fully. Although people are still getting shots it is mostly closing that small gap with about 0.2% new vax starters per day. Maybe in about another month they will be near 90?

So assuming that's the best case, using your term compliant, I don't see how we ever get there.

This feels like an unattainable target to justify the blunt lockdown approach for years, if not forever.