Righto my election prediction.

So this is how it sits according to latest polling. 319 Biden to 219 Trump, though a large number are 'technically' toss-ups.

Not pretty viewing and although betting odds are narrowing it doesn't look good for Trump.

The polls are surely more accurate than last time, a lot of reputations got tarnished after 2016 so I can't see the same mistakes being made and I don't buy the idea that polling is intentionally being skewed to dissuade Trump voters (If anything I'd have thought that would energise a base). On top of that Corona has removed Trumps "It's the economy stupid" argument and unlike 2016 msm and social media has gone pretty much all-in on censorship of anything anti-Biden. I find it funny showing supposedly 'politically informed' folk Biden gaff clips that they had absolutely no idea about, let alone the mind-boggling content of crackhead son's laptop.

Having said all that, I still have hope. Trump supporter enthusiasm is off the charts, huge rallies, convoys, regattas. Look up on youtube to find amateur artists writing songs and raps for Trump where there is no real equivalent for Biden. My feeling is those polled who support Trump will vote while those who support just may not, the only enthusiasm is really to be against the Orange Man.

In 2016 we were told he was 'literally Hitler'...and well after 4 years and still no concentrations camps, an increasing support amongst minorities, recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, the development of the #blexit & #walkaway movements, a string of peace deals (Bahrain/Israel, Israel/UAE, Serbia/Kosovo, Israel/Sudan), no additional major military conflicts (how long since a president who managed that?)...well where can the anti-Trump argument go? Sure you can hit him with Corona handling, though surely some responsibility lies with state representatives..and of course public gaffs and tweets..but it doesn't really measure up to "Trust us, he is Hitler, electing him will be a crime against humanity!".

Of course the side effect of the extremist anti-Trump narrative pushed by mainstream outlets had the side effect of painting anyone who was either supportive of or even neutral to Trump as being racists/nazis/facists/-insertword-phobic and as such it is your civic duty to berate, dox, assault and do everything in your power to have their means of employment and supporting their family removed. I have a MAGA hat but even in a city on the other side of the world I can nearly guarantee if I was to wear it in public I would be attacked. Has there been any other US president where showing support will likely get you attacked in public in a foreign western country? Hell I had a family member of my partner frothing at the mouth about how Trump and his family need to be murdered for the sake of humanity at a family skype dinner the other day, this from a medical specialist with his own practice. The brainwashing at work to create such a visceral reaction from a respected medical professional is incredible as it is terrifying. I can only imagine this being significantly worse in democrat strongholds & toss-up states and its from this I see the shy Trump support. If anyone asks you say you are voting Democrat because failure to do so could very likely result in significant pain to you or your family.

Finally as cities around the US are busy boarding up their windows for expected violence during election night, you can bet it isn't Trump supporters they are worried about. The twin marxist movements of Antifa and BLM have really made their mark this year, fighting for racial justice and against the evils of capitalism through assault, vandalism, arson and murder. It took Biden until August to condemn the violence with Democrats appearing to openly encourage it until polling started to show that it might not be the vote winner they thought it was. Most recently this occurred in Pennsylvania which is shaping up to be a very key battleground state, this looked to be safely in Biden's hands until a couple weeks ago..

So in conclusion my prediction is that the polling has improved and a lot of 2016's polling issues have been accounted for..however I think the specific enthusiasm, shy Trump support and folk who appreciate law and order are new issues which will not be accounted for in 2020 polling. At a guess I think this could be worth about a 4% shift on the polls and as such I see Trump taking it narrowly at 285 to 253

Of course I'm hoping like hell for a more convincing win than even last time, including the popular vote, as I see that as being the only way this rising radicalism in the states can be addressed.

If I'm wrong and the Dem's take it out as expected then I think we can all agree its certainly been a fascinating 4 years on the Trump train.

The Silver Fern

Rembrandt