Investing - Property/Shares
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@canefan said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@pakman said in Happiness Scale:
@canefan said in Happiness Scale:
@pakman said in Happiness Scale:
@canefan said in Happiness Scale:
@taniwharugby said in Happiness Scale:
@Snowy my bank manager suggested I should be looking at an investment property, I said yeah nah.
I'm not good with handling stress relating to finances and I expect that would just about kill me, am pretty risk adverse when it comes to money.
A good ETF on the US stock market will give you decent gains with lower risk. Certainly more dynamic than the NZ market. Apple computer alone has averaged over 100% increase from it's 2011 price to date ($10 now $130). Pretty safe
Be wary. Any rise in US interest rates would have substantial effect on tech prices. Which means US inflation is being watched as a leading indicator. It’s ticking up.
I've been in the market, in a relatively passive capacity, for over 10 years. It goes up and down, but as long as you don't plan to time the market to make a quick buck it always goes back up
I’ve been doing it professionally for 35 years. Not saying sell. Just be aware things are very high.
Don’t disagree if you’re talking ten year time frame.
Yeah I think some are going to get burned at some point soon. I'm a long term buy and hold guy, the average returns compared to the NZSX and the banks are very significant
Bear in mind the returns of the S & P 495 (i.e. ex FANGS) haven't been particularly good since 2012. It really is a case of everything on Black.
This chap is very respected: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-grantham-bidens-stimulus-will-inflate-the-stock-market-bubble-2021-1-1029995954
Bubbles always burst.
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@junior said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@canefan said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@taniwharugby said in Happiness Scale:
@Snowy my bank manager suggested I should be looking at an investment property, I said yeah nah.
I'm not good with handling stress relating to finances and I expect that would just about kill me, am pretty risk adverse when it comes to money.
A good ETF on the US stock market will give you decent gains with lower risk. Certainly more dynamic than the NZ market. Apple computer alone has averaged over 100% increase from it's 2011 price to date ($10 now $130). Pretty safe
An index that tracks the S&P 500 probably has enough diversification in it currently to guard against major losses unrelated to a general market collapse (which is obviously always possible). My concern is going forward, as the tech companies get bigger and bigger, whether that index is going to become to weighted to that sector and make those index funds less diversified.
In last 8 years the tech stocks have dragged S & P up. A market weight capped product would be a good idea at this stage.
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@Snowy said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@canefan said in Happiness Scale:
@Snowy said in Happiness Scale:
@dogmeat said in Happiness Scale:
@Victor-Meldrew Its pretty much the same here but equities have a bad rep gained during the 87 crash which has embedded in the national consciousness in the same way as the underarm incident
I got burnt. Didn't have much in it as was young, but Equiticorp went broke (bunch of crooks) and Brierleys went through the floor. They were two of the biggest companies around. Equiticorp was a lesson for me.
My dad is still scarred from that one. All those big companies in the 80s were shells, deals being done on napkins etc. I think the market is totally different now. But there are those who invest, and those who gamble
Yep. It was all very dodgy. Mostly asset stripping IIRC. I think that they tightened up a lot of the regs after that. The whole Equiticorp thing was still going on in 2010 even though they went broke in 1989ish. NZ steel was a lemon and the government were culpable for some of the collapse. Hawkins ended up in prison too. What a mess.
I personally knew the Equiticorp guys. Lots of manipulation. Government reneged on various commitments on NZ Steel, so they can't be blamed for that one.
Brierley guys were more buy cheap, stop bleeding, and flick.
NZ Market was very much a closed game in those days.
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@antipodean said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Can someone explain to me how suddenly Tesla is worth more than every other car company combined?
FOMO. There's literally no other reason for the stock price.
Anyone thinking their battery technology is worth such a ridiculous valuation is ignoring that most of the IP is actually owned by their partners and smaller university backed companies are doing more interesting, ground breaking things.
The EPS of the stock is ludicrous. It's like muppets think Tesla is going to dominate the automobile industry. Now that all the other real manufacturers are stepping into the EV market, Tesla will remain a niche for people who don't know what quality is.
There is a theory that all the data from the driving habits of Tesla drivers gives company a head start in designing software for driverless cars.
I'm sure there is some value in that, but with Tesla valued at $1.5m PER CAR SOLD I'm not sure it's enough.
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@MajorRage said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Can someone explain to me how suddenly Tesla is worth more than every other car company combined?
Can't sleep due to a few things so decided to pop down and give you my thoughts on what has happened here. I'm out of "the game" now so don't follow the metrics anymore, but bubbles like this one are usually backed up by some substance. Not the sort of substance that gives them any sort of valuation where they are now, but piece of shit companies don't have bubbles of this length. Basically here is what happens.
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The stock is hot due to what it does, not due to the way its run. This effectively means that a shitload of knowledgable investors are short it. Tesla was no different here, with it routinely on the heaviest shortest lists. I've no idea if this is still the case, but I'd imagine the really big HF (like 10bill plus) were likely to hold significant shorts 18 months ago
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Bubble begins based something which gives it momentum - could be anything. Tesla's was basically making profits and starting to approach S&P500 inclusion.
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Suddenly you have a shit ton of shorters losing loads ... and they must cover due to their risk management models. Usually based on position sizes (a 5% short becomes a 10% short when the stock doubles etc) but also due to the chance of a bubble. Basically a short squeeze. And because they are buying it to cover their shorts .... it pushes it up further.
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Retail funds which disclose holdings (which due to reporting laws is now basically all of them) realise they need a position in it to attract investments. Especially when the stock story is interesting and appeals to current trends. Zero emission is quite the trend ...
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Retail brokers have seen it before so they start pumping it. Suddenly everybody wants it in their pension funds, in their pots .... stock keeps rising
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In this case, Tesla then got included in the S&P500. So what happens then? All ETF's, trackers, index linked funds .. HAVE To buy it at any price. It's hard to overestimate just how much buying this is.
4 & 5 can start at any point ... they are more often than not what happens at point 2 but are generally what accelerates the growth.
Where we are now with Tesla is somewhere up the curve. Now that it's in the S&P 500, it has a fair bit of downside protection - billions of dollars worth of holders will never sell it. It's such a fairytale at the moment, I honestly can't see how it stops. Bad news gets buried quickly, good news just keeps coming. They're cars can be utter shit, it doesn't matter.
My view on the cars, as a car nut, is that the are actually quite shit. The handling is average at best, the wear on them is horrific, and they date really badly. They go like shit off a shovel off the mark though, and they are extremely trendy. If you compare a 2014 Model S to pretty much so any similar priced model of that year, the Tesla looks the worst.
But the tech in them is fucking amazing. And you've gotta remember in the world we live in now, fuck all people are car nuts. The youth gave up cars about 10-15 years ago, and they are now entering that period where they have the most expendable cash (well not in NZ due to the house price surge) and they don't give a fuck about Porsche, Ferrari etc. It's all about image, it's all about a car that has technology, and its' all about running it from your phone. Basically, it's a Tesla.
So if you've got balls, buy it, go deep. It could be 10k in 5 years, it could be where it is now, it could be 100 if something goes really tits up. I'd say it's more likely to be 10k, but what would I know. I'm the world's worst investor.
Oh, it may be worth also looking at the future of electricity. It's something that seems to have gone un noticed that I'd look into. What will x million electric cars do to power supply?
I'd be interested in buying a cheap 5 year put to sell Tesla at 60% of current price.
Lottery style returns at much better odds.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@NTA said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Throw in the massive missteps by companies like Volkswagen and the refusal of some OEM to change rapidly (looking at Toyota and their "self-charging" hybrids), and it is not beyond complete insanity to put Tesla at the top of the pile by a long way.
Looking to go plug-in hybrid or all electric this year. The most realistic options are Kia or Hyundai. May go for an eNiro but there's a 6-12 month waiting list for some models. Nothing really available from Germany unless you're looking at £60k+ - but loads of "visions" of possible future cars.
Imagine situation will change in the next 12 months or so.
Friends tell me the price of replacing the battery drives the resale value.
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@voodoo said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@MajorRage said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@voodoo said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@MajorRage said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@MajorRage said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Give up sleep more often - that's a great and informative post.Oh, it may be worth also looking at the future of electricity. It's something that seems to have gone un noticed that I'd look into. What will x million electric cars do to power supply?
I'd invest in companies rolling out the fast-charge stations. Going to be a bread and butter business sector, with a stable user base and a lot of start-ups will get snapped up by the big boys.
But where do they get the power from? Thats the question I have.
2 entirely different qns obviously.
As to the charging stations, I'd say they remain a pretty risky investment. How do you protect against a major petrol co adding their own to their existing infra? Or the roadside cafes doing the same. Or Tesla rolling out their own in a deal with Coles, Wooli, Tescos etc. I just don't see how you can pick a winner there with any confidence?
As to power generation, its not so simple to say more EVs = more electricity demand. Its about a completely different approach to electricity. Here in Oz we have a legacy setup of massive coal fired generation and power lines distributing that all the way along the eastern seaboard. Now we see a move to to distributed generation, where not only smaller power plants (almost all renewable) exist closer to loads, but also homes generating large portions of their power requirements. EVs can draw power from installed home batteries, and can act as a supplier of power when not being used. They're massive batteries at the end of the day.
The challenges are in some way technical, but really more about displacing the incumbents and the existing infrastructure.
I don't think we have a supply issue, just a big adjustment to make.
With all due respect, Australia sales of electric cars aren't going to be any real driver of anything. Energy sources down there are abundant.
I'm talking more Europe, China & US.
You'll have to be more offensive than that to disrespect me 😎
Europe is going through a transition for sure as it figures out what to do with nuclear, offshore wind, and a resurgence of thermal (gas) power. But China and the US really have no shortage of generation sources. China is developing renewables faster than any other country, again, its not a tech issue, its a desire issue. For them its more about security of supply than saving the environment, but the result is the same. Equally the US has plenty of resources available. They're really not that different to Australia, just on a much bigger scale.
And all of those countries will benefit from the points I mentioned earlier. As the grid gets smarter, EV's can help to smooth loads, power homes at certain times. Its not just a new, big drain on the power supply.
China is in process of building a fleet of coal plants to produce an insane number of GWs!
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Investing - Property/Shares:
I can really only talk about the UK, but here you can no longer off-set mortgage/loan interest against income on rental property and you get hit with CGT when you sell. You can make a fair bit of money moving from house to house and improving it, but that's disruptive if you have a family, you get hit for estate agents fees, Stamp duty & VAT on the cost of improving it.
But you can put £20k a year into an ISA with low charges and just let that grow, take the dividend income or invest in what shares or Unit Trusts you want and sell when you want - totally tax-free.
Ditto with pensions where you can put in up to £40k a year of your income (which is taken off your taxable income), let that grow and when you reach 50, you are effectively taxed at 11.5% on the first £55k of income
In UK can get a pretty good yield. FTSE100 currently 4.7%. To that one can expect over ten years to get 3% p.a. real capital return and some inflation, say 1%. All up perhaps 9% compound, WITH NO GEARING.
CGT is 20% max. Tax on divs 7.5% on first £25k of income.
One can build a nice little retirement plan around that.
And as @Victor-Meldrew notes, scope for some smart tax planning.
Meanwhile, residential property prices are driven by propensity of banks to lend against it. There has been a MASSIVE increase in bank credit in last 30 years. At some point that will stop and prices will stall. The interesting question then will be how many people have been funding their lifestyles off equity release?
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@MajorRage said in Investing - Property/Shares:
But where do they get the power from? Thats the question I have.
I'd guess from the National Grid on a wholesale basis or, as is being proposed in the South West, from solar/wind farms next to A road and motorways.
The return on a wind farm was about 10% about 5 years back but not many farmers could put in the £1m capital so they leased the land or brought in partners. Can see a similar thing happening with EV charging and government grants.
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@pakman said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Friends tell me the price of replacing the battery drives the resale value.
Resale values seem to hold well for the Kia Hyundai vehicles - if you can find a used one.
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@junior I've quoted this before but it has been one of my investment axioms for decades
Rockefeller said he made a fortune buying high and selling low.
I'm not a totally passive investor; I have a strategy and I review my portfolio regularly but I do play the long game and I definitely don't chase the hot tips (by the time I learn of them they're already cool) or try and catch the peaks and troughs.
It's worked well for me. My problem has been having to bail out friends and family who get into strife. I've always been paid back - eventually - but the opportunity cost has probably been about 1/2 Mill in terms of price movements while I was out of the market and the ongoing impact of that. Illustrates the value of letting the investments sit. It's the closest example I have to trying to be a proper trader. Still if helping whanau isn't what money's for what is the point.
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@junior said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@Snowy said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@taniwharugby said in Happiness Scale:
@Snowy my bank manager suggested I should be looking at an investment property, I said yeah nah.
I'm not good with handling stress relating to finances and I expect that would just about kill me, am pretty risk adverse when it comes to money.
If you are getting into too much debt to do it, it would be pretty stressful.
Then you get a tenant who smokes P in it and things get ugly quickly, bloody bitch. Two young kids too. It was insured but it took me six months to sort it out. It's also getting more difficult to get rid of shit tenants with changes to laws. They aren't exactly helping with rental property shortages.
Yes to both comments above - tracker funds aren't a bad way to go and the diversity reduces risk. The same thing applies though, never be in a position where you have to sell, whatever the investment.
My old man, who has made plenty out of shares (was an accountant) gave me a tip when I was trading quite a lot and markets were quite volatile. If you have made a large capital gain sell what it cost you, and keep the rest. Effectively means that you have no risk as what you kept cost you nothing. Stress free stock holdings.
Define "Large"? And what would you do with the money once you have sold? Buy some other shares?
It depends how much that you had to start with. Enough that you still have reasonable holding after selling. Having a whole lot of odd lots isn't much good. And yes, buy some other shares, diversify and spread your risk. Both my grandfather and father were accountants and did this for over 100 years in total, and it worked for both of them. I should have followed their model a bit more than having too much in property. Some of that worked well but I would have been better off with at least some in stocks.
Trying to reallocate it now. -
@Snowy I've never had a property investment. I decided to gain exposure to property by investing in companies who made money in that sector. Mainly because I didn't want the hassles you faced.
I do get the attraction of property i.e. you get 100% of the total CG for a minimal outlay but I like the flexibility and liquidity of equities.
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@dogmeat said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@Snowy I've never had a property investment. I decided to gain exposure to property by investing in companies who made money in that sector. Mainly because I didn't want the hassles you faced.
I do get the attraction of property i.e. you get 100% of the total CG for a minimal outlay but I like the flexibility and liquidity of equities.
Liquidity is another of my old man's catch phrases. I've never been in a position where I had to sell in a hurry, so haven't been caught out, but it is a valid point.
Your first point is where I am going now. Best of both worlds, still in the property market but more diversified risk. Looking closely at peer to peer lending. Squirrel and Zagga (had Harmoney and it was O.K but they sold out). Good returns, secured against property with out actually owning it and the issues that go with that.
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Might need an energy thread
@pakman said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@voodoo said in Investing - Property/Shares:
And all of those countries will benefit from the points I mentioned earlier. As the grid gets smarter, EV's can help to smooth loads, power homes at certain times. Its not just a new, big drain on the power supply.
China is in process of building a fleet of coal plants to produce an insane number of GWs!
Definitely an issue - some are designed to replace older, less efficient plants. More interesting is that capacity factor across the fleet is below 50% as of 2019. Why build new coal when you're not even using half of what you have?
Overbuild has been part of their planning for decades, but at 50% CF you'd surely mothball any new plans until that rose to mid-70s percent and in the meantime add a crapload of wind or even nuclear, given it is China after all.
Some of it is being driven by the need to stimulate growth by the continuation of jobs and action by the big power companies. Some by politics - quoting "energy security" is always a winner.
It presents a further geopolitical challenge if countries start accounting for carbon trading in their tariffs. Who is going to be the first to tell China their goods cost more due to coal?
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@pakman said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Friends tell me the price of replacing the battery drives the resale value.
Resale values seem to hold well for the Kia Hyundai vehicles - if you can find a used one.
Have been watching Robert Llewellyn on his YouTube channel about EVs and one area that might provide a ready source of second hand EVs is the lease market. Three years down the track, a few start popping up, and they have favourable policies in place for zero-carbon emissions in the lease market that can get some in the door who would otherwise not be able to afford an EV.
Goodness knows dealers aren't pushing them because they're less profitable than fuel burners on service etc.
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@NTA said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Goodness knows dealers aren't pushing them because they're less profitable than fuel burners on service etc.
They're pushing them quite hard here. Diesel and petrol car sales are banned here in 9 years time
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A couple of other comments:
Tech stocks - we have seen all of this before. I think it took 18 years for the Nasdaq to get back to where it was in 1999. I'm more with Warren Buffet, invest in something that people actually need food, clothing, etc (he was big into Coca Cola though). Tech has its place but easily gets over inflated. FOMO I suppose.Without getting too far into EVs again, and this is investment related, you can get up to 10% ROI on one. Depending on how many solar panels you put in and what you spend on the car.
I have just calculated that my Dad spent about $180k and is getting around 6% (bloody lovely but expensive car) can easily do better than that. You do have to be able to charge the car from the panels during the day though. If you are at work it doesn't add up the same. -
@Snowy said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Tech stocks - we have seen all of this before.
This time you can add regulation and anti-trust actions to the risks. Google is a prime candidate to be broken up along with Apple. Will be interesting to see how the Oz - Google News royalty spat goes.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@Snowy said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Tech stocks - we have seen all of this before.
This time you can add regulation and anti-trust actions to the risks. Google is a prime candidate to be broken up along with Apple. Will be interesting to see how the Oz - Google News royalty spat goes.
Which might be a reason Google valuation metrics were only FANG ones which were half reasonable when I looked late last year.