Coronavirus - Australia
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@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
why are people latching on to the curfew? isn't it pretty obvious, there are far fewer thing to do at night so its more likely you are just going out to socialise with friends/family and thats where theyre seeing community transmission. That means those people that are flaunting the rules would have to socilise during the day but if they're luckily enough to still have a job theyre not going to have the time
I remain amazed at how easily people are willing to trade liberty for the perception of security. You do realise if socialising is the issue you can ban that? Oh wait, they did.
Given the inability of the "tracers" to determine hundreds of active cases, I'd suggest that they actually don't know that socialising at night with friends and family is the source of community transmission.
The new rules were less strict than i was expecting and in all fairness not a huge change to our current way of life, 5km is still a decent distance, our biggest problem living in port is about half out 5km circle is in the harbor and another big chunk is the CBD
I guess if you pretend that level four isn't a great deal of difference from a level three perspective, then you're a frog approaching boiling point.
And that's before we acknowledge Victoria isn't seeing exponential increases...
not pretending, we were generally staying around port/south melbounre and considering bars etc were closed we were't going out at night, short of whatever hes going to announce today it isn't a huge change for us
Unfortunately for a great deal of people, it is a huge change for them.
and as for the tracing or inability to trace, they can trace things like work...and so its not exactly a huge deduction to say the community transmission is coming for social activities
Well if it were that simple, they wouldn't be having a problem doing it would they?
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
why are people latching on to the curfew? isn't it pretty obvious, there are far fewer thing to do at night so its more likely you are just going out to socialise with friends/family and thats where theyre seeing community transmission. That means those people that are flaunting the rules would have to socilise during the day but if they're luckily enough to still have a job theyre not going to have the time
I remain amazed at how easily people are willing to trade liberty for the perception of security. You do realise if socialising is the issue you can ban that? Oh wait, they did.
Given the inability of the "tracers" to determine hundreds of active cases, I'd suggest that they actually don't know that socialising at night with friends and family is the source of community transmission.
The new rules were less strict than i was expecting and in all fairness not a huge change to our current way of life, 5km is still a decent distance, our biggest problem living in port is about half out 5km circle is in the harbor and another big chunk is the CBD
I guess if you pretend that level four isn't a great deal of difference from a level three perspective, then you're a frog approaching boiling point.
And that's before we acknowledge Victoria isn't seeing exponential increases...
not pretending, we were generally staying around port/south melbounre and considering bars etc were closed we were't going out at night, short of whatever hes going to announce today it isn't a huge change for us
Unfortunately for a great deal of people, it is a huge change for them.
and as for the tracing or inability to trace, they can trace things like work...and so its not exactly a huge deduction to say the community transmission is coming for social activities
Well if it were that simple, they wouldn't be having a problem doing it would they?
thats the point, there isn't any record of these social interactions so they have to stop/limit them
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@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
why are people latching on to the curfew? isn't it pretty obvious, there are far fewer thing to do at night so its more likely you are just going out to socialise with friends/family and thats where theyre seeing community transmission. That means those people that are flaunting the rules would have to socilise during the day but if they're luckily enough to still have a job theyre not going to have the time
I remain amazed at how easily people are willing to trade liberty for the perception of security. You do realise if socialising is the issue you can ban that? Oh wait, they did.
Given the inability of the "tracers" to determine hundreds of active cases, I'd suggest that they actually don't know that socialising at night with friends and family is the source of community transmission.
The new rules were less strict than i was expecting and in all fairness not a huge change to our current way of life, 5km is still a decent distance, our biggest problem living in port is about half out 5km circle is in the harbor and another big chunk is the CBD
I guess if you pretend that level four isn't a great deal of difference from a level three perspective, then you're a frog approaching boiling point.
And that's before we acknowledge Victoria isn't seeing exponential increases...
not pretending, we were generally staying around port/south melbounre and considering bars etc were closed we were't going out at night, short of whatever hes going to announce today it isn't a huge change for us
Unfortunately for a great deal of people, it is a huge change for them.
and as for the tracing or inability to trace, they can trace things like work...and so its not exactly a huge deduction to say the community transmission is coming for social activities
Well if it were that simple, they wouldn't be having a problem doing it would they?
thats the point, there isn't any record of these social interactions so they have to stop/limit them
If it were that simple, they'd just have to ask wouldn't they?
"Have you had a large family/ friends gathering recently ?"
"Why yes"
"And who was there?"Amazingly complicated.
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@antipodean ...people lie...is this news to you?
people go to parties where they only know half the people
people forget they stopped to get petrol on the way somewhere
are you being deliberately obtuse?
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@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean ...people lie...is this news to you?
people go to parties where they only know half the people
people forget they stopped to get petrol on the way somewhere
are you being deliberately obtuse?
Clearly. According to you people lie (so why bother contact tracing?) and in your false dichotomy the only explanation for these cases is night time parties.
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@antipodean not the only...but one...people seem to be obsessed with a silver bullet, this magical answer to everything and if it doesn't then dont bother...ts one step off..."not everything is clear too me...it must be a conspiracy!"
its naive...almost everything in live is made up of lots of small steps, if this is a step towards narrowing down the sources of spread then its a step in the right direction
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@Kiwiwomble Something for you to ponder on - is this level of policy response sustainable every time there's an outbreak while we all wait for immunity (however we achieve that)? I'd suggest it's not.
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@antipodean given there are two potential vaccines in Aus alone going into human testing i would say it is only needed until a vaccine is ready and so i see it as implement these restrictions to get the spread to stop/slow and the death toll to slow/stop and then eased restrictions until there is a vaccine
I'd just like Vic to align its cases with the rest of the country so that borders might be able to open
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@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean given there are two potential vaccines in Aus alone going into human testing i would say it is only needed until a vaccine is ready and so i see it as implement these restrictions to get the spread to stop/slow and the death toll to slow/stop and then eased restrictions until there is a vaccine
The presumption being there will be a vaccine and soon. Not a good basis from which to make public policy.
I'd just like Vic to align its cases with the rest of the country so that borders might be able to open
I'd prefer a wall along the Murray.
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@antipodean and thats when i realised you're just trolling
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@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean and thats when i realised you're just trolling
Making a joke about Victorians does not extend to my valid criticisms as trolling. But paint them as such if it makes it easier for you to cope.
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all you filthy mexicans need to sort your shit out, collectively
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I am certainly closer to antipodean's views on this one, though not 100% aligned.
I'm a bit surprised at how willing people are to accept these quite severe rules. I know a number of people who enjoy exercising after 8pm, due to the long hours they work. So the idea they can't go for a walk/run now seems odd to me, given the low risk of that activity. Same with community sport, played outdoors with no evidence of transmission so far.
The issue for me is the lack of evidence for a few (though not all) of these new rules. One of the main reasons the virus continues to spread seems to be confirmed positive cases still going to work/the shops. These rules won't change that, only harder enforcement and more regular check-ups.
I really feel for Victorians, they are paying an enormous price for a problem that started at the hands of Government with the poor quarantine security arrangements. It will be draining mentally if nothing else.
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@barbarian the curfew does seem draconian. The only justification I can see is the Police asking for it because otherwise it is too hard for them to enforce lockdown, but if people are going to ignore the rules they'll do it at any time.
The Victorian govt seem to have prevaricated. What did they do to get systems ready in the 8 weeks when it was all going swimmingly. Then they went into a series of half-assed lockdowns that seem to me illogical.
It must be awful for businesses and the general public to have this whole thing drag on and on. I don't know the NZ population would be any more compliant if we had to go back into lockdown. Once yeah but repeatedly. Not so sure about that.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
all you filthy mexicans need to sort your shit out, collectively
Thank God we no longer have to worry about a Google algorithm monitoring our posts...
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So apparently Victoria records 429:
While 429 would have been a record a fortnight ago, it is significantly below Thursday’s record of 723, as well as 627 on Friday and 671 on Sunday. It also brings Sunday’s record seven-day average of 518 down to 504. Premier Daniel Andrews is due to address the media later today regarding the shutdown of certain businesses and workplaces.
Hardly exponential increase is it?
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian the curfew does seem draconian. The only justification I can see is the Police asking for it because otherwise it is too hard for them to enforce lockdown, but if people are going to ignore the rules they'll do it at any time.
The Victorian govt seem to have prevaricated. What did they do to get systems ready in the 8 weeks when it was all going swimmingly. Then they went into a series of half-assed lockdowns that seem to me illogical.
And I'm not a 'let her rip' guy, but there are only 40 people in ICU at the moment with the virus. I'm unsure of the State's overall ICU capacity, but it would be in the hundreds. People are dying but it's very old people at the rate of about 7 a day.
Now this will obviously get a bit worse, but as it stands Victoria are still a long way from the UK or USA or Italy. And yet they've taken such a heavy approach to the situation. It's important to get on top of the virus, but a curfew is something I can't get on board with given the exact nature of what's happening there.
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@barbarian we dont want to get as bad as the UK and Us though...you dont wait for things to start growing exponentially before you do something...the fact the trend is still growing suggests the current restrictions arent enough...or i guess they would have been if everyone followed them...but they didn't...and so now we need stronger ones to try and make up for that
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@Kiwiwomble I understand that, but growth is by no means exponential.
And I'm not against extra measures per se, but I need to see evidence as to why they will make a difference. If I'm sacrificing something (and the ability to go out after 8pm is a pretty big something) then I want to know it is going to help.
I think the severity of the situation does not yet warrant such harsh restrictions on the population.
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@barbarian no one said it is exponential...if it was it would be almost out of control
the current restrictions have at best stopped it going exponential...do we think it will go from pretty steady growth to steady decline overnight? they waited 4.5 weeks so gave them a good chance to get it under control...something had to be done