Super Rugby 2025
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Unlike in previous years, there really doesn’t seem to be a side which seems destined to end up in the final. Even the top 4 sides have shown some clear weaknesses: the Chiefs’ forwards have been unable to get on top of their opposites on a few occasions despite choosing to take those packs head-on (Drua, Tahs); the Crusaders have shown some incredible defensive frailty more than once (Chiefs, Moana Pasifika); the Reds seem unable to lift their game against top opponents (Crusaders, Chiefs, Brumbies); and the Brumbies have shown an ability to score points but have also conceded the 2nd most points from all playoff teams, with only the Western Force conceding more.
There is a sense of incompleteness about all of the NZ Super Rugby sides as well which probably hasn’t been there since at least before the Razor-led Crusader sides from 2017. It did make me wonder how a lack of collective Kiwi SR dominance was related to the performance of the All Blacks during the Test season. So I gathered both the AB win rate and the average NZ SR sides win rate since 1996 and that resulted in this graph.
A few things stood out to me. First of all, it looks evident to me that collective NZ SR success does not equate to Test success, if anything the reverse seems rather true. In the golden decade of the All Blacks (2005-2016), where they had an average win rate of 88%, the NZ SR sides only averaged a win rate of 55%. By contrast, in the period since (2017-’24) when the AB win rate has gone down considerably (72%), the average NZ SR sides win rate across these years has gone up (63%).
Of course, this can be explained in itself in a number of ways. There’s the considerable factor of the British and Irish Lions series, which meant that in the years leading up to 2017 more provincial players probably sticked around longer than they normally would’ve, strengthening the NZ Super Rugby sides. Another factor, however, was the weakening of the competition during the 2010s: the South African and Australian sides suffered from considerable player drain and lack of depth while the competition was further diluted through sides like the Sunwolves. As a result, the opposition for NZ SR sides deteriorated, likely correlating with increasingly poor performances at Test level.
This brings us to the current season, where both the Australian sides and Moana Pasifika have shown both real signs of improvement as well as tactical innovation, with several Aussie sides using attacking shapes which are reminiscent of a Joe Schmidt-attack (high-rate of possession, focus on breakdown accuracy, target space around the ruck). It still remains to be seen whether the quality of the Aussie sides can be retained after the Lions tour, the departure of Schmidt, and the World Cup but, for the moment at least, I think it can be argued that the quality of the competition is a positive sign for the All Blacks. If the NZ players are genuinely tested at provincial level, both physically and tactically, it should only prove to be a positive sign for the next level, as a proper preparation for the rigour of Test matches.
Sidenote: yes, I know there are those who are expecting a collapse of the Australian sides in the coming weeks with the upcoming clashes against NZ opposition. I myself am not so sure that this will be the case, but I guess we’ll see soon enough.
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Things have really changed again this week. By beating the Reds, the Brumbies have realistically designated a very clear top four which is unlikely to change. By beating the Chiefs, the Waratahs have also greatly increased their chances.
Looking at things currently, the mark to nab 6th is likely to be between 31-33 points, so for the Canes and Blues, that almost definitely requires winning 4/6. The Landers extra BP at this stage means three wins (including one over the Canes) and three bonus points (most likely losing ones) would get them there.
This is of course dependent on how many points the Tahs and Force get to… Tahs fixtures are tougher, but they are the better of the two, hence why 31-33 could be the mark. There is a world where the Reds get dragged into this, although it feels improbable they would lose 6 straight, and even then with bonus points and a home game against the Drua to finish they should be fine.
Moana’s loss makes it tricky for them, though if they account for the Landers, Canes & Blues + the Drua/Brumbies, they might sneak in.
The next 2-3 weeks will probably clear a lot of this up, because the Canes have two games in Aussie, the Force play the Canes and the Blues, and the Highlanders play the Chiefs and Crusaders.
Canes and Landers will be all but done if they can’t win one of the next two, the Blues would be clinging on, and would be up struggle street if they fail to pick up bonus points.
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Gideon Wrampling avoids a citing… is there an example this season where someone received a red, but then had it mitigated down by the citing commission/received a yellow, then had it upgraded to a red?
Feels a bit like they are simply supporting the referees.
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@frugby said in Super Rugby 2025:
is there an example this season where someone received a red, but then had it mitigated down by the citing commission/received a yellow, then had it upgraded to a red?
Hunter Paisami for Reds earlier this year. Yellow - off field review - stayed yellow. Cited - multiple week ban
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@KiwiMurph said in Super Rugby 2025:
@frugby said in Super Rugby 2025:
is there an example this season where someone received a red, but then had it mitigated down by the citing commission/received a yellow, then had it upgraded to a red?
Hunter Paisami for Reds earlier this year. Yellow - off field review - stayed yellow. Cited - multiple week ban
That fucking TMO deserved a few weeks off too
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Force have a pretty tough run home: Chiefs (a), Blues (a), Brumbies (h), Drua (a), Waratahs (h). Can see them dropping all five of those games - but they most likely win one or two.
I think the Waratahs, Force, Hurricanes and Blues all have pretty even chances of making the finals. The Force and Canes have tougher runs home (but have better PD at the moment).
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@frugby said in Super Rugby 2025:
Looking more and more likely that there will be four Aussie teams in the playoffs - and that is absolutely a good thing for the competition.
Maybe I am on my own here, but fuck the 'competition'. I want the Kiwi sides to dominate.
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@Crazy-Horse yes generally I prefer that too, although I am intrigued by the Force doing well this year. Kiwi outcasts
Moli, Ekuasi, Tomkinson & Prinsep. 1 of the best rising players in the game Tizzano mixed in with cult figures Harry Potter, Robertson and Dolly -
@sparky said in Super Rugby 2025:
@frugby One of the Hurricanes or the Blues might still edge out the Waratahs.
On evidence of the way the Blues and Canes are playing I just don’t see it. The way the comp is going, I think the Tahs/Force get two more wins each, and that might be enough.
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This is quite interesting - the Brumbies and Hurricanes have introduced a new trophy between the two sides to be played annually over ANZAC weekend. Named the Captain Shout Cup (named after Alfred Shout) this will go on the line for the first time when the two teams clash on Saturday night in Canberra. I hope this means we can finally host the Brumbies in NZ after playing what feels like our last 5 or so games in Canberra.
