-
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Duluth" data-cid="507414" data-time="1439240051">
<div>
<p>It's also worth noting Obama had two years at the start of his Presidency where he could have done what he wanted</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p>Sometimes it takes a new President that long to get his Secretaries (of State, Education, Agriculture, Navy, Surgeon General, etc.) appointed through Congress, and if the other party controls the House they can stall and dither & sabotage for months holding up a new administration's plans and implementations. And God forbid there becomes a vacancy on the Supreme Court.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="red terror" data-cid="509155" data-time="1439779992">
<div>
<p>Idiocracy was on full display on Meet the Press this morning. </p>
<p> </p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p>Link sadly pulled. Try to watch the whole Trump on Meet the Press interview 08/16/2015. It's fantastic.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Chuck Todd:</p>
<p>"Who do you talk to about military affairs?"</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The Donald:</p>
<p>"Well, I watch the shows. I watch all the shows --y'know, like yours with the Generals and great guests...</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Todd (interrupting):</p>
<p>"Who specifically do you talk with... Presidents always confer w- ..."</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Donald:</p>
<p>"John Bolton."</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Donald's lead is solidifying. He's struck a nerve with the illegal immigration issue. It's not one you feel much in the north. United States is not too worried about illegal immigration from Canada, and although I'm sure it happens, the illegals being white and sounding kinda similar never raises a red flag. But in the rest of the United States, I imagine there is widespread anger & fear fueling Trump because he has a "plan" to build a wall (like China) along the Rio Grande, make Mexico pay for the construction cost of the whole thing, and create some sort of vague Judge Dredd-style police force to locate and evict all illegals. 24% of registered Republicans are currently buying it.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Meanwhile... Hillary is getting in deep drip-drip doo-doo over her "lost" Top Secret emails. If this scandal drags out past Labor Day (three weeks from now, when summer is traditionally over and Americans return to working life) this could actually do some real damage to her campaign. </p>
<p> </p>
<p>Of course by then, the entire noise machine will be consumed with the GOP and Israel-lobbies feverish attempts to derail Obama's P5+1 Iran nuclear deal. Obama is already getting smeared as an anti-semite, and as I say the real ugliness is being held back until September.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>(As George W. Bush's White House Chief of Staff Andy Card famously told reporters anticipating the roll-out for the Iraq War, "From a marketing standpoint, you don't introduce new products in August.")</p> -
<p>On Trump, I'm still with Nate Silver, he has 2% chance of being president.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>In past years Michelle Bachman has looked good. So has Howard Dean. Its just a circus act to sell books / publicise.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>On Hillary, I'm not sure how much this hurts her. Those who like her see it as a smear. Those who don't like her already know what she is. The story there is "Hillary is a bit shadey & might be a bit secretive". Thats not new - Benghazi, the book tours, the death of Vince Foster, Whitewater... this new bit is nothing that those who are OK with her have not heard before.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>For it to really hurt her it has to step over a line that is new. Or its got to upset those who already forgive for all that.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>We're in the crazy season now, where every year the nutters zoom up the ranks & the real polititians look shakey, then when we get round to the crunch & the spotlight comes on, they fall away. </p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="gollum" data-cid="509427" data-time="1439912804">
<div>
<p>On Trump, I'm still with Nate Silver, he has 2% chance of being president.</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p>The personalities aren't always as important as the issues. The issue Trump has tapped into is substantially stronger than 2% and is not going away. Today paleo-Republican <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.wnd.com/2015/08/immigration-issue-of-the-century/'>Pat Buchanan articulated</a> quite well conservative fears, calling Trump's signature issue not simply the issue of 2015, but moreover the "issue of the 21st century" by placing it in the broader context of the West. I'm not prepared to travel with him that far, and I had to hold my nose <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.wnd.com/2015/08/immigration-issue-of-the-century/'>pasting a hyperlink to World Nut Daily</a>, but he makes make some valid points. </p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="red terror" data-cid="509428" data-time="1439914497">
<div>
<p>The personalities aren't always as important as the issues. The issue Trump has tapped into is substantially stronger than 2% and is not going away. Today paleo-Republican <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.wnd.com/2015/08/immigration-issue-of-the-century/'>Pat Buchanan articulated</a> quite well conservative fears, calling Trump's signature issue not simply the issue of 2015, but moreover the "issue of the 21st century" by placing it in the broader context of the West. I'm not prepared to travel with him that far, and I had to hold my nose <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.wnd.com/2015/08/immigration-issue-of-the-century/'>pasting a hyperlink to World Nut Daily</a>, but he makes make some valid points. </p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p>Buchanan is a prime example. He campaigned to be president on immigration, started off in 96 especially with a hiss & a roar & looked great. Then once the proper stuff started the staggereingly bland Bob Dole shit all over him. Ran again 2000 & literally no one voted for him... And he levered everything into a great TV show & lots of book sales...</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Trump will be exactly the same</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Biggest problem is Trump wants to send back the mexicans.... the Republican hard right core want to send back the blacks.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><em><strong>Race</strong></em> is huge in America, immigration is just a politically OK way of venting over that...</p> -
<p>Ouch , bye Hillary <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423544/hillarys-e-mails-reveal-dependence-on-aides'>http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423544/hillarys-e-mails-reveal-dependence-on-aides</a></p>
-
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="jegga" data-cid="513621" data-time="1441488853"><p>
Ouch , bye Hillary <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423544/hillarys-e-mails-reveal-dependence-on-aides">http://www.nationalreview.com/article/423544/hillarys-e-mails-reveal-dependence-on-aides</a></p></blockquote>
Ouch indeed or just wow<br>
"Trump who comes off more down to earth..."<br>
Ouch x 1000 -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Virgil" data-cid="513623" data-time="1441489703">
<div>
<p>Ouch indeed or just wow<br>
"Trump who comes off more down to earth..."<br>
Ouch x 1000</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> Trump just overtook Hillary <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/252825-poll-trump-beats-hillary-head-to-head'>http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/252825-poll-trump-beats-hillary-head-to-head</a></p> -
<p>The thing you need to remember about national polls is that they are dumb and next to useless. (Bush became president with less votes than Gore.) What matters is the Electoral College. Total number is 538; you become prez when you hit 270. California, Texas, New York and Florida have 55, 38, 29 and 29 votes respectively. Win one of those states by a single vote, say California, and winner takes all 55, loser gets zero. You could technically sweep those four states by a single vote in each state, and you will have skunked your opponent 151-0 and be more than half-way to the 270 number. It shocks me that polling numbers in the USA are still so unsophisticated in light of the fact that, again, Bush "beat" Gore and the American news media believes the average American voter is too dumb to be given real reliable polling numbers. You'd think when a baseball analyst like Nate Silver beat them to the punch that the news media would wake up, but you would be mistaken.</p>
-
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="red terror" data-cid="513669" data-time="1441500436">
<div>
<p>The thing you need to remember about national polls is that they are dumb and next to useless. (Bush became president with less votes than Gore.) What matters is the Electoral College. Total number is 538; you become prez when you hit 270. California, Texas, New York and Florida have 55, 38, 29 and 29 votes respectively. Win one of those states by a single vote, say California, and winner takes all 55, loser gets zero. You could technically sweep those four states by a single vote in each state, and you will have skunked your opponent 151-0 and be more than half-way to the 270 number. It shocks me that polling numbers in the USA are still so unsophisticated in light of the fact that, again, Bush "beat" Gore and the American news media believes the average American voter is too dumb to be given real reliable polling numbers. You'd think when a baseball analyst like Nate Silver beat them to the punch that the news media would wake up, but you would be mistaken.</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>There Is No ‘Blue Wall’
<p class="">By <a class="" href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nate-silver/" title="Posts by Nate Silver">Nate Silver</a></p>
<p>If you were browsing campaign coverage at this point in advance of the 1992 election, you’d be reading a lot about the Republicans’ impregnable “red wall.†OK — it wouldn’t have been called the “red wall†(the association of Republicans with red states and Democrats with blue states came about <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.nbcnews.com/id/4459759/)'>more recently</a>). But you’d have been reading a lot about Republicans’ <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/27551710?uid=379615751&uid=3739576&uid=2&uid=3&uid=379613571&uid=67&uid=62&uid=3739256&sid=21106370909431'>supposed “lock†on the Electoral College</a>.</p>
<p>The argument was something like this. During the past six presidential elections, from 1968 through 1988, 21 states voted Republican every time. These included almost all states in the fast-growing West — most importantly, California and its trove of<strong> </strong>electoral votes — along with some wealthy, suburban states (Illinois, New Jersey and Virginia) and a couple of traditionally Republican states in New England (including Vermont).<a class="" href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-is-no-blue-wall/#fn-1"><sup>1</sup></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-is-no-blue-wall/'>http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-is-no-blue-wall/</a></p>
<p> </p>
<p>State polls are silly are relatively pointless at this stage. The national polls for the general election give you a far better view. History tells us that if you win the popular vote, you almost certainly win the electorate vote. Basically, Nate is saying you should ignore the electoral college unless the national polling is very close.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>A good point was made about the Hispanic vote in that it doesn't really matter. Most Hispanics line in one of those 4 states, California, New York, Florida and Texas. Of those 4, only Florida is actually 'in play.' So even if changing demographics favour Democrats in Florida it could work hugely against them in states like Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Polling Cali, NY and Texas is pointless. If a Republican is to win then they must win Texas and a Democrat must win the first two states. As for Florida, the polling I have seen shows they seem to like Bush and Rubio and don't know much about anyone else.</p> -
<p>Obama log transformed into a Trump equivalent</p>
<p> </p>
<p><img src="http://lolworthy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/obama-trump-logo-400x209.jpg" alt="obama-trump-logo-400x209.jpg"></p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="hydro11" data-cid="513703" data-time="1441505156">
<div>
<p><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:helvetica, arial, sans-serif;">Polling Cali, NY and Texas is pointless. </span>If a Republican is to win then they must win Texas and a Democrat must win the first two states. As for Florida, the polling I have seen shows they seem to like Bush and Rubio and don't know much about anyone else.</p>
<p> </p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p>The "open" electoral-rich states where the vote is competitive (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan) are the states I want to know about, because that's where the election pivots. California will vote blue and Texas will vote red, regardless the candidate. I still like polling in California and Texas for no other reason to get an idea of drift, and if numbers in those states tighten, that should be news. But I want to know where the election will be decided, like FL in 2000. News media should be providing information and analysis in the numbers, but they are mostly disinterested and just want to repeat national polling numbers over-and-over. That's the beginning, middle and end point for most of them. Silver is right about the margin of errors between national poll numbers and electoral college not being much at this point, mostly on point because it's so early (he wrote that in May). Election season kicks in after this weekend (Labor Day), summer's over, back to work and 14 months to go.</p> -
<p>The rise of Trump hasn't peaked yet.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Last night Trump gave a very long unscripted speech in a packed arena to a crowd of 20,000-or-so in Dallas. I watched it so that you didn't have to. </p>
<p> </p>
<p>No prepared speech. He just freestyled for over an hour telling the crowd how rich & successful he is, how much money he makes, how his hair is real, boasting about his "monster TV ratings," and reminding everyone how big of a loser Mitt Romney was. Next to no policy talk, but he did say nice things about Arnold Schwarzenegger taking over his hosting duties on Celebrity Apprentice. Crowd lapped it up. </p>
<p> </p>
<p>I suspect many Americans are starved for- and love his "no teleprompter" approach.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Whereas Hillary is looking overly stiff & stage-managed. Her appeal with women voters has plummeted almost thirty percent the past few weeks, and now she's on the stump in Iowa attacking Trump's "respect" (or supposed lack-thereof) for women that only serves to remind most Americans about her hubby Bill's "bimbo eruptions."</p>
<p> </p>
<div>
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote">
<div><span style="font-size:14px;">“Hillary Clinton is reaching out to that group that she had always counted on, white women voters, who are now abandoning her in droves during the last two months,†(NBC Andrea) Mitchell reported.</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span style="font-size:14px;">Clinton has spent the past few weeks doing everything possible to court women voters, even going so far as to seek out women-owned businesses to grab lunch. “This after seeing her support among white women in one new poll go from 71% in July to just 42% now, a 29% drop in only eight weeks as Clinton has been hammered with questions about her private emails,†Mitchell noted.</span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span style="font-size:14px;">Mitchell, one of the few hard news reporters to have interviewed the candidate so far, noted that <strong><span style="color:#ff0000;">Clinton is reaching out to women by doing “softer interviews,†including talking to Mario Lopez about meeting Kim Kardashian.</span></strong></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.mediaite.com/tv/andrea-mitchell-white-women-abandoning-hillary-clinton-in-droves/'>http://www.mediaite.com/tv/andrea-mitchell-white-women-abandoning-hillary-clinton-in-droves/</a></div>
<p> </p>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
</div>
<p> </p>
<p>The GOP is imploding and Hillary is nose-diving. Fun times...</p> -
<p>One good thing about Trump is that hopefully it encourages the other candidates to be less robotic and formulaic. Hillary is probably the worst at that. She seems to have changed a bit and done some unscripted interviews now but that is only because of the rise of Sanders.</p>
-
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Tim" data-cid="516159" data-time="1442363132">
<div>
<p>It would great to avoid seeing people like Mitt Romney have to pretend to be "conservative" stereotypes during the primaries.</p>
</div>
</blockquote>
<p> </p>
<p>Cue the inevitable insider-y anonymously-sourced Politico commentary:</p>
<p> </p>
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote"> <span style="font-size:24px;">Can Romney Save Us From Trump?</span>
<p> </p>
<p style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:'proxima-nova', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:16px;"><strong>Why GOP poohbahs are seriously thinking about asking Mitt back into the race</strong></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:'proxima-nova', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:16px;">In a tastefully furnished conference room somewhere in the nation’s capital, leaders of the GOP establishment are popping antacids and shaking their heads. Donald Trump is the face of their party now — and there’s no stopping him.</span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:'proxima-nova', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:16px;">[...]</span><br>
</p>
<p><span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:'proxima-nova', 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:16px;">Read more: </span><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/mitt-romney-enter-race-save-gop-from-trump-213145#ixzz3lrNRH8oj'>http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/mitt-romney-enter-race-save-gop-from-trump-213145#ixzz3lrNRH8oj</a></p>
<p> </p>
</blockquote> -
<p>I actually quite like Romney, the shame of last time was he had to move right & say stupid stuff to get the nomination - for example he did Omabacare correctly & well & then had to pretend he hated the idea.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Wonder what Al Gore is up to...</p> -
<p>Romney is a ridiculously wealthy Mormon from Boston. Try selling that to the voters. But I agree, he's an impressive guy.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>This thing with Trump is no longer a joke. A Trump/Carsen ticket? I love Carson's story, but his views on creationism are very disturbing.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>What I've been floored by is how incredibly uninspiring J. Bush is. I presumed a popular Florida governor would have a least some charisma, but damn that guy is dull.</p>
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