Coronavirus - Australia
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@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life i agree, its more about how to get it back under control and the discussion of whats better in the long run, six weeks of full lockdown or 12 of what we have
what ever you are going to do, do it fast, so you can come on holiday to FNQ
we're all going to get addicted to government money
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian hearing more and more people say we should have done the full lockdown like NZ, keeping takeaways and malls etc open for the sake of the economy looks a bit silly if they have to keep extending this version of lockdown
which is stupid. what we did was fantastic. Letting nearly half a million people come back to Australia, most in Vic and Sydney, was the "error". And even then with a better run quarantine...
Not much choice in the matter when they're Australians.
The simple and obvious issue is only one jurisdiction completely shat the bed on this. Even now Covid-19 related hospitalisations are still only about two per cent of Victoria's public bed capacity.
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@antipodean sorry, maybe i wasn't clear. I have no problem with them coming back. But that's a lot of people, so unless your quarantine is rock solid, there is zero chance you can keep the disease out.
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@mariner4life given “Karen from Brighton” was a white woman and “Eve Black” also a white woman, and the “Bunnings woman”, all got more than their fair share of media air play, I don’t think the media lynch mob really cared about race...
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also, you won't hear that last stat in the media. Like you never hear the ages of the people who died, without digging
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@mariner4life the ages groups of those that died yesterday we like the second bullet point on the article i read
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I do wish the media pointed out the obvious - old people in nursing homes are going to die of this if it gets in there. The rest of us are fine. I read some drivel in the ABC with a clickbait headline that "young people are going to die". Not so far they haven't so stop criticising young people from making logical choices - they're fine but the measures we're taking are heavily swayed to the generations that have had the deck loaded for them all their lives.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian hearing more and more people say we should have done the full lockdown like NZ, keeping takeaways and malls etc open for the sake of the economy looks a bit silly if they have to keep extending this version of lockdown
which is stupid. what we did was fantastic. Letting nearly half a million people come back to Australia, most in Vic and Sydney, was the "error". And even then with a better run quarantine...
Not much choice in the matter when they're Australians.
The simple and obvious issue is only one jurisdiction completely shat the bed on this. Even now Covid-19 related hospitalisations are still only about two per cent of Victoria's public bed capacity.
I was just about to post on this. I was trying to find out, given the 10k total cases and 5k active ones, how much of VICs ICU capacity is actually being used. It's not easy to determine, but sure it's important in any effort to understand what level of transmission and new cases we can live with
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
also, you won't hear that last stat in the media. Like you never hear the ages of the people who died, without digging
Andrews says the ages of the dead up front in every one of his media conferences.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
also, you won't hear that last stat in the media. Like you never hear the ages of the people who died, without digging
Andrews says the ages of the dead up front in every one of his media conferences.
admission. i don't listen to the press conferences.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I do wish the media pointed out the obvious - old people in nursing homes are going to die of this if it gets in there. The rest of us are fine. I read some drivel in the ABC with a clickbait headline that "young people are going to die". Not so far they haven't so stop criticising young people from making logical choices - they're fine but the measures we're taking are heavily swayed to the generations that have had the deck loaded for them all their lives.
There's a growing body of evidence that while most young people are fine, in some cases it can lead to chronic fatigue, heart problems and other lifelong issues.
The idea that it just hurts oldies and the rest of us are 'fine' is not true at all.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I do wish the media pointed out the obvious - old people in nursing homes are going to die of this if it gets in there. The rest of us are fine. I read some drivel in the ABC with a clickbait headline that "young people are going to die". Not so far they haven't so stop criticising young people from making logical choices - they're fine but the measures we're taking are heavily swayed to the generations that have had the deck loaded for them all their lives.
There’s sensationalist headlines every 5 minutes it seems.
I’ve heard a doctor from Northern Hospital was admitted to ICU last night with COVID. He’s in his 30s.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I do wish the media pointed out the obvious - old people in nursing homes are going to die of this if it gets in there. The rest of us are fine. I read some drivel in the ABC with a clickbait headline that "young people are going to die". Not so far they haven't so stop criticising young people from making logical choices - they're fine but the measures we're taking are heavily swayed to the generations that have had the deck loaded for them all their lives.
There's a growing body of evidence that while most young people are fine, in some cases it can lead to chronic fatigue, heart problems and other lifelong issues.
The idea that it just hurts oldies and the rest of us are 'fine' is not true at all.
Did I say "hurts" or did I say die?
And outliers with comorbidities are going to suffer regardless. Public health policy shouldn't be run by outliers.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I do wish the media pointed out the obvious - old people in nursing homes are going to die of this if it gets in there. The rest of us are fine. I read some drivel in the ABC with a clickbait headline that "young people are going to die". Not so far they haven't so stop criticising young people from making logical choices - they're fine but the measures we're taking are heavily swayed to the generations that have had the deck loaded for them all their lives.
There's a growing body of evidence that while most young people are fine, in some cases it can lead to chronic fatigue, heart problems and other lifelong issues.
The idea that it just hurts oldies and the rest of us are 'fine' is not true at all.
Did I say "hurts" or did I say die?
And outliers with comorbidities are going to suffer regardless. Public health policy shouldn't be run by outliers.
Thanks for the bolding, it really helps make your point. Strong!
Public policy shouldn't be run by outliers, but with a full picture of risks to all ages. Lifelong effects to some affected people (without comorbidities, I might add) is clearly a part of that.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I do wish the media pointed out the obvious - old people in nursing homes are going to die of this if it gets in there. The rest of us are fine. I read some drivel in the ABC with a clickbait headline that "young people are going to die". Not so far they haven't so stop criticising young people from making logical choices - they're fine but the measures we're taking are heavily swayed to the generations that have had the deck loaded for them all their lives.
There's a growing body of evidence that while most young people are fine, in some cases it can lead to chronic fatigue, heart problems and other lifelong issues.
The idea that it just hurts oldies and the rest of us are 'fine' is not true at all.
Did I say "hurts" or did I say die?
And outliers with comorbidities are going to suffer regardless. Public health policy shouldn't be run by outliers.
Thanks for the bolding, it really helps make your point. Strong!
Well since you failed to deal with what I actually said the first time I thought it might help.
Public policy shouldn't be run by outliers, but with a full picture of risks to all ages. Lifelong effects to some affected people (without comorbidities, I might add) is clearly a part of that.
So we're agreed it shouldn't be run by outliers. Great. Now it's a simple discussion about risk benefit. Some old people dying, a few people with complications and millions out of work, hundreds of billions added to public debt, tens of thousands of businesses failing etc.
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@antipodean Why? We've done this before. I fundamentally disagree with the idea we could have avoided the debt and the unemployment.
Do you think the Melbourne lockdown should end?
I genuinely think there's a direct link between consumer confidence and the spread of the virus. If there were no lockdowns and the disease spread, do you really think people would still eat at restaurants, or go on flights, or go to footy games?
Sure a few might, but most wouldn't. They'd go into a kind of self-imposed lockdown. So you'd get the same result, with or without Government action.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean Why? We've done this before. I fundamentally disagree with the idea we could have avoided the debt and the unemployment.
Yet again you make it a binary issue; "either or". It's not.
What the policy response has shown is that the first round of restrictions in Victoria didn't achieve their stated aim if they have to do it again, let alone apply a harsher regime the second time. If you bought time to add health care capacity, why is it necessary now?
Why is it necessary to impact people in such a manner when they bear almost no risk? For a relatively small pandemic by historical standards; first recorded case on Australia Day and we've added 188 deaths as of yesterday since the first recorded at the beginning of March. Meanwhile creating the deepest economic recession since the 1930s.
Restaurants and cafes, etc. could have stayed open catering to the customers that still wanted to frequent them, obeying social distancing. That alone negates the hypothesis that the same result would've been realised.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean Why? We've done this before. I fundamentally disagree with the idea we could have avoided the debt and the unemployment.
Yet again you make it a binary issue; "either or". It's not.
What the policy response has shown is that the first round of restrictions in Victoria didn't achieve their stated aim if they have to do it again, let alone apply a harsher regime the second time. If you bought time to add health care capacity, why is it necessary now?
Why is it necessary to impact people in such a manner when they bear almost no risk? For a relatively small pandemic by historical standards; first recorded case on Australia Day and we've added 188 deaths as of yesterday since the first recorded at the beginning of March. Meanwhile creating the deepest economic recession since the 1930s.
Restaurants and cafes, etc. could have stayed open catering to the customers that still wanted to frequent them, obeying social distancing. That alone negates the hypothesis that the same result would've been realised.
The first lockdown wasn't just about buying time to add healthcare capacity, though. It was about reducing the virus numbers as well. The success of that second measure made it the clear choice of policy makers to implement again when the virus came back (through a policy failure in the quarantine hotels).
And yes it's been relatively small in Australia so far, but clearly it can get a lot worse if it spreads. If other countries had outbreaks only on our scale then it would be an entirely different debate.
Even if you allowed restaurants and cafes to remain open, in a mass outbreak where the disease was spread primarily in indoor venues, they would still suffer massively with their doors open. Run on tight margins at the best of times, many would still fail.
If NSW gets to 200+ cases a day but say 'restaurants are still open', I certainly wouldn't be going down to the local for a feed with my mates. And I think the vast majority of people would be like me.
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- The first policy response was based on flawed modelling.
- The majority of the cases were acquired OS.
- Time to build capacity:
“In about a month from now there will be changes to the baseline restrictions that we put in place a few weeks ago,” Morrison said in a press conference, adding that three benchmarks would need to be met before that occurred. “When we have in place the broader testing regime surveillance, the automated contract regime in place, and we have scaled out our capacity to respond to outbreaks, that is what we are looking to do in the next four weeks.
- So that clearly hasn't come to pass in Victoria.
- We weren't affected like other countries for the Spanish Flu either.
- 0.06% of the country is a confirmed case after more than six months.
- 0.0007% of the country has died from Covid-19
- People can make their own choices about whether they bunker down with 800 rolls of toilet paper or go out.
- Businesses can decide if and how they'll adopt to respond to demand.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
- People can make their own choices about whether they bunker down with 800 rolls of toilet paper or go out.
- Businesses can decide if and how they'll adopt to respond to demand.
OK, but can't you see the possibility that most people will bunker down, and said economic ruin would still be realised?