Coronavirus - Australia
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some of the shit coming out is unbelievable
the NT are closing their borders for 18 fucking months!!!!
I am very close to cancelling my accomodation in Sydney for New Years because that is looking dicey as hell.
We're all in this together my ass.
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@mariner4life I was supposed to be on the bike as of this Saturday into Qld, SA, NT and WA.
I'm not even pretending that's going ahead now. This is cooperative federalism...
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life I was supposed to be on the bike as of this Saturday into Qld, SA, NT and WA.
I'm not even pretending that's going ahead now. This is cooperative federalism...
it's keeping families apart. This country has a huge amount of FIFO workers who cannot get home now.
People can't visit relatives. You can't do business. It's infuriating. And to think there is no end in sight...
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I understand the State's closing their borders.
M4L - does FNQ have the health system to deal with an influx of virus-ridden retirees? I'm not sure it does. Likewise coastal communities in NSW.
As it stands it might be better to have a smaller intrastate travel market than no market at all.
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@antipodean we had to cancel a long weekend and that was gutting enough, cant imagine having to cancel what i imagine was a much longer and more planned out trip
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I understand the State's closing their borders.
M4L - does FNQ have the health system to deal with an influx of virus-ridden retirees? I'm not sure it does. Likewise coastal communities in NSW.
As it stands it might be better to have a smaller intrastate travel market than no market at all.
what influx? from where?
We have 2 hospitals. In 18 months we will have, 2 hospitals. Are we saying no one come to Cairns ever?
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I understand the State's closing their borders.
M4L - does FNQ have the health system to deal with an influx of virus-ridden retirees? I'm not sure it does. Likewise coastal communities in NSW.
As it stands it might be better to have a smaller intrastate travel market than no market at all.
what influx? from where?
We have 2 hospitals. In 18 months we will have, 2 hospitals. Are we saying no one come to Cairns ever?
No, but if the virus spreads through Sydney and borders are open, isn't there a risk of it coming into the community?
Then you have the residents plus the grey nomads and holiday makers, and once they get it it's not like they can get on a plane home.
Influx probably wasn't the right term to use, but holiday/retiree spots are certainly a bit vulnerable...
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life I was supposed to be on the bike as of this Saturday into Qld, SA, NT and WA.
I'm not even pretending that's going ahead now. This is cooperative federalism...
it's keeping families apart. This country has a huge amount of FIFO workers who cannot get home now.
I'm thankful I got to Qld when I did. It had a been a year since I was last there and it's looking increasingly uncertain when I can go back.
People can't visit relatives. You can't do business. It's infuriating. And to think there is no end in sight...
All because 0.085% of the population as of yesterday had a virus and 0.001% had died from it. Over seven months...
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I understand the State's closing their borders.
M4L - does FNQ have the health system to deal with an influx of virus-ridden retirees? I'm not sure it does. Likewise coastal communities in NSW.
As it stands it might be better to have a smaller intrastate travel market than no market at all.
what influx? from where?
We have 2 hospitals. In 18 months we will have, 2 hospitals. Are we saying no one come to Cairns ever?
No, but if the virus spreads through Sydney and borders are open, isn't there a risk of it coming into the community?
Then you have the residents plus the grey nomads and holiday makers, and once they get it it's not like they can get on a plane home.
Influx probably wasn't the right term to use, but holiday/retiree spots are certainly a bit vulnerable...
i get your point, but there is such thing as risk/return.
right now, according to the worldometer stats that have proved pretty reliable, Australia has 55 people listed as serious/critical. This is despite the "explosion" over the past month. 55. In the country. At the start of this we had what, 4,000 ICU beds? I thought we were supposed to be building capacity over this time, what do we have now? What is our new capability?
NSW is recording what, up to 20 new cases (not deaths, not serious, critical health issues, cases) per day. And yet for all of this, the borders are closed for the foreseeable future. How many people live in NSW?
The situation in Auckland today should be a wake-up call, this thing is here, it's in teh community, and getting completely rid of it is impossible. I fear that the opposite lesson will be learned, and governments drunk on the polling of fear with elections coming up, will double down on restrictions.
Believe it or not, i am not advocating open slather. And i am not even coming at this from a tourism angle (i am waaay past that). But i am sick of politicians and health officers who can't see past the end of their nose (or the next election) making damaging decisions and never, ever being called upon to discuss end dates, or a plan for the future.
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@mariner4life I agree with all of that.
It's clearly a delicate balance. Especially for the travel industry. Things are too conservative at the moment, but there's also a relationship between consumer confidence and the spread of the virus. If borders were open, how many people would be having a weekend in Melbourne?
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life I agree with all of that.
It's clearly a delicate balance. Especially for the travel industry. Things are too conservative at the moment, but there's also a relationship between consumer confidence and the spread of the virus. If borders were open, how many people would be having a weekend in Melbourne?
because, if social media is anything to go by, people equate getting Covid with ending up unconscious in ICU
What are the actual risks? If 50,000 people caught it, how many would end up in ICU?
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@mariner4life supposedly 1%...?
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@mariner4life for me personally, im not too worried about catching it....but i would be mortified if i spread it and someone did end up in ICU
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life I agree with all of that.
It's clearly a delicate balance. Especially for the travel industry. Things are too conservative at the moment, but there's also a relationship between consumer confidence and the spread of the virus. If borders were open, how many people would be having a weekend in Melbourne?
because, if social media is anything to go by, people equate getting Covid with ending up unconscious in ICU
What are the actual risks? If 50,000 people caught it, how many would end up in ICU?
The real challenge is that we don't seem to really know the fatality rate, or how this spreads, and how long it's viable on surfaces, and so on. There has been a major shift in NZ from 'masks don't help' to 'masks should be mandatory'. I don't know what evidence that is based on, but it's sliding under the radar a bit. I don't think it's wrong, but it's like the shift from 'flatten the curve' to 'eliminate'; has a big effect on how we're trying to respond.
There seem to be three options
- Eliminate (and pray for a vaccine)
- Mitigate with social distancing and other simple actions (flatten the curve)
- Tolerate and live with it (Sweden)
the issue is that without good data, no-one can compare the risks. If fatality rates are 1%, hospitalisation is 3% and everyone gets the virus, then option 3 looks dead in the water. However, if you start looking at 0.1% deaths, 0.5% hospitalisation and herd immunity around 50% it's a totally different risk discussion. The problem is we just don't know (still!), and we can't see excess mortality. Sweden and USA are good examples of how important implementation is.
Also, I'm really nervous that people won't be nearly as compliant this time around. We may wind up in Option 2 or 3 through the actions of people who just don't care, and that will really annoy me.
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@taniwharugby that's a really high number - if it's 5% then eliminate is the only viable strategy. What's the source of that?
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@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life for me personally, im not too worried about catching it....but i would be mortified if i spread it and someone did end up in ICU
I'm in the strange limbo of being incredibly blasé about catching it, and taking considerable steps to ensure no one else gets it. I've been WFH since this all started and only leaving to go shopping or footy training.
My patience is wearing thin.