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@nostrildamus I don't blame you for holding any of these opinions. They are pretty much so what the "free" press is writing about continuously. It's much easier to write something negative about Brexit which will sell you more papers than it is to write something positive. The unpopular decision won right? But hang on .. how come it's then the popular decision? And that is crux of the matter. The "have-nots" were rather sick of being told what was good for them by the "haves".
Here is some positive observations from living here for 3.5 years though all this
- The end of free immigration is huge & is wanted. Citizens of wealthy Euro countries are envious
- The London financial system has very little to worry about. It will lose Italians/French to Italy/France but not much else. European banking laws & regulations are incredibly inhibitive and actively push against an entreprenaurial approach to finance.
- London fintech is exploding. Like silicon valley levels. There is a still a direct avenue for the young, smart, British entreprenaurs to follow
- London commuter house prices are up 10-15% year on year. Demand from the pandemic has been nuts.
- The Brexit deal is pretty good as it keeps free trade on the table & enables the UK to make it's own laws where it finds the EU one's inhibitive
And here's some negatives
- The country is politically bitterly divided with Brexit and Boris handling of the Pandemic
- The NHS is struggling to cope with the pandemic and struggling to get the staff it needs and keep them healthy
- London apartments (of which thousands have been built) are struggling to sell and rents have dropped substantially
- Brexit deal is pretty crap as it sold out the fisheries and ultimately makes the same relationship with the EU much harder to implement & trade with
- The UK will struggle to remain together as Scotland looks to follow it's own path.
So here's a question. As you read about the current situation in the UK, are you more likely to see things written from List A or List B?
I'm not entirely sure I'm quite here yet, but I am reminded of Ed Harris fine quote from Apollo 13 ...
"With all due respect Sir, I believe this is going to be our finest hour"
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@nostrildamus I don't blame you for holding any of these opinions. They are pretty much so what the "free" press is writing about continuously. It's much easier to write something negative about Brexit which will sell you more papers than it is to write something positive. The unpopular decision won right? But hang on .. how come it's then the popular decision? And that is crux of the matter. The "have-nots" were rather sick of being told what was good for them by the "haves".
Here is some positive observations from living here for 3.5 years though all this
- The end of free immigration is huge & is wanted. Citizens of wealthy Euro countries are envious
- The London financial system has very little to worry about. It will lose Italians/French to Italy/France but not much else. European banking laws & regulations are incredibly inhibitive and actively push against an entreprenaurial approach to finance.
- London fintech is exploding. Like silicon valley levels. There is a still a direct avenue for the young, smart, British entreprenaurs to follow
- London commuter house prices are up 10-15% year on year. Demand from the pandemic has been nuts.
- The Brexit deal is pretty good as it keeps free trade on the table & enables the UK to make it's own laws where it finds the EU one's inhibitive
And here's some negatives
- The country is politically bitterly divided with Brexit and Boris handling of the Pandemic
- The NHS is struggling to cope with the pandemic and struggling to get the staff it needs and keep them healthy
- London apartments (of which thousands have been built) are struggling to sell and rents have dropped substantially
- Brexit deal is pretty crap as it sold out the fisheries and ultimately makes the same relationship with the EU much harder to implement & trade with
- The UK will struggle to remain together as Scotland looks to follow it's own path.
So here's a question. As you read about the current situation in the UK, are you more likely to see things written from List A or List B?
I'm not entirely sure I'm quite here yet, but I am reminded of Ed Harris fine quote from Apollo 13 ...
"With all due respect Sir, I believe this is going to be our finest hour"
Possibly the key measure of the economic success of Brexit will be the ability (or not) for UK to cut a trade deal with US.
Free win if it can offer US routes to substitute its exports to UK for existing EU ones, whilst UK exports gain access to US markets.
At least that's the theory!
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@MajorRage that's a really good pro and contra list and yes I have read much more from/of the negatives I'll try to get more of a spectrum.
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@nostrildamus said in Brexit:
I still have a personal interest in the EU because it has had a major success that no one talks about (peace since WWII)
I know the EU likes to take credit for this (they once claimed credit for the NHS after all) but pretty sure NATO and a common enemy had a lot more to do with it. French/UK military cooperation is very deep and has actually got closer in the last 2-3 years. Co-operation on defence isn't going to change - the UK's new fighter project has EU countries (Italy & Sweden) as partners.
And what is left for the UK is internal division, a confused border with Ireland (or has that been sorted)
Ireland has always been a unique situation and the Troubles were sorted out by the UK and Ireland directly with help from the US. The EU had nothing much to do with it, in reality. North and South will muddle along as they've always done.
and courting by a group of rather large sharks far more ferocious than the EU in the art and war of trade deals.
There's risks and opportunities. The UK has an opportunity to become a bit more like Canada and Australia - who have Free Trade access to markets EU business don't, like Asia, China & India. Staying with the EU has risks as it seems to have problem with FTAs and there's a real risk of it getting left behind and shut out of growing markets - scotch whisky being a case in point.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
@nostrildamus said in Brexit:
I still have a personal interest in the EU because it has had a major success that no one talks about (peace since WWII)
I know the EU likes to take credit for this (they once claimed credit for the NHS after all) but pretty sure NATO and a common enemy had a lot more to do with it. French/UK military cooperation is very deep and has actually got closer in the last 2-3 years. Co-operation on defence isn't going to change - the UK's new fighter project has EU countries (Italy & Sweden) as partners.
And what is left for the UK is internal division, a confused border with Ireland (or has that been sorted)
Ireland has always been a unique situation and the Troubles were sorted out by the UK and Ireland directly with help from the US. The EU had nothing much to do with it, in reality. North and South will muddle along as they've always done.
and courting by a group of rather large sharks far more ferocious than the EU in the art and war of trade deals.
There's risks and opportunities. The UK has an opportunity to become a bit more like Canada and Australia - who have Free Trade access to markets EU business don't, like Asia, China & India. Staying with the EU has risks as it seems to have problem with FTAs and there's a real risk of it getting left behind and shut out of growing markets - scotch whisky being a case in point.
No trade expert, but one challenge would be trying to do a deal on manufactured goods with a regime where environmental and labour laws are negligible or routinely ignored -- India/China.
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No trade expert, but one challenge would be trying to do a deal on manufactured goods with a regime where environmental and labour laws are negligible or routinely ignored -- India/China.
NZ, Oz, Canada, Japan and a host of other countries don't have a problem.
If the EU wants to shackle its exporters competing in world markets to prove how progressive and virtuous they are, then so be it. But they should be prepared to become relatively poorer as a result.
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@Victor-Meldrew one point of dissent:
2012 Nobel Peace Prize.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
No trade expert, but one challenge would be trying to do a deal on manufactured goods with a regime where environmental and labour laws are negligible or routinely ignored -- India/China.
NZ, Oz, Canada, Japan and a host of other countries don't have a problem.
If the EU wants to shackle its exporters competing in world markets to prove how progressive and virtuous they are, then so be it. But they should be prepared to become relatively poorer as a result.
That is certainly trade orthodoxy. But if such agreements lead to substantial job losses as e.g. Chinese imports replace Northern jobs, the net is more of the population reliant on social welfare.
As a consequence, I'm not opposed to tariffs being set at a level which protects economies with decent social welfare, environmental and labour laws. WTO levels too low. I'm all for carbon border taxes.
EU has many areas, in particular agricultural, where the tariffs are ludicrously high, which just leads to very poor resouce allocation and economic stagnation.
Rather hoping that Brexit will enable UK to position itself in an intermediate spot. Has just signed FTAs with Japan, Canada and South Korea, with US the whale...
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That is certainly trade orthodoxy. But if such agreements lead to substantial job losses as e.g. Chinese imports replace Northern jobs, the net is more of the population reliant on social welfare.
It's going to happen anyway, so be prepared to compete . No point in protecting all those highly paid jobs producing those shiny BMW's when your export markets slap quotas on your goods in retaliation.
As a consequence, I'm not opposed to tariffs being set at a level which protects economies with decent social welfare, environmental and labour laws. WTO levels too low. I'm all for carbon border taxes.
Needs to be managed carefully, for sure. A short-term measure while you address the need to become competitive.
EU has many areas, in particular agricultural, where the tariffs are ludicrously high, which just leads to very poor resouce allocation and economic stagnation
Classic symbol of the EU thinking it's some emergent global economic super-power when there's a real danger of it being left behind. There's very, very few leading edge industries in the EU compared to the US, China or Japan.
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Well, thank fuck that's finally over.
Brexit: MPs overwhelmingly back post-Brexit deal with EU
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
Well, thank fuck that's finally over.
Brexit: MPs overwhelmingly back post-Brexit deal with EU
I’ve noticed quite a few pieces in [Remoaner] mainstream press saying negotiation will continue ad infinitum.
Move on!
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Davidson right on top.
She’s either delusional or a barefaced liar. Scotland is a mendicant state.
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Davidson right on top.
She’s either delusional or a barefaced liar. Scotland is a mendicant state.
The second statement is most definitely true. The first is more apposite for Sturgeon in this instance.
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Davidson right on top.
She’s either delusional or a barefaced liar. Scotland is a mendicant state.
I think she strongly believes in Scotland out of UK and strongly wants it back in the EU. Believes so much she cares none for the logistics and what is required.
And then she takes view in Farage facing the same and achieving his desired goal.
So who knows where this will go.
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Tried to placed an order today with a German-based company I often buy stuff from - about £200-£400 a year. Couldn't place the order and was presented with a statement that said " We no longer export to countries outside of the EU".
Ordered from the US instead. Kinda sums up the problems the EU has.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
Tried to placed an order today with a German-based company I often buy stuff from - about £200-£400 a year. Couldn't place the order and was presented with a statement that said " We no longer export to countries outside of the EU".
Ordered from the US instead. Kinda sums ups up the problems the EU has.
EU share of world GDP has halved snce 1980. King Canute strategy.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
Tried to placed an order today with a German-based company I often buy stuff from - about £200-£400 a year. Couldn't place the order and was presented with a statement that said " We no longer export to countries outside of the EU".
Ordered from the US instead. Kinda sums ups up the problems the EU has.
EU share of world GDP has halved snce 1980. King Canute strategy.
Though that says more about how much China has expanded than anything else. Still, agree re the Cnut simile.
Sadly.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
Tried to placed an order today with a German-based company I often buy stuff from - about £200-£400 a year. Couldn't place the order and was presented with a statement that said " We no longer export to countries outside of the EU".
Ordered from the US instead. Kinda sums ups up the problems the EU has.
EU share of world GDP has halved snce 1980. King Canute strategy.
Though that says more about how much China has expanded than anything else. Still, agree re the Cnut simile.
Sadly.
The Ambrose Evans-Pritchard piece in yesterday's Torygraph is worth a read.
Brexit