Coronavirus - Overall



  • @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Donsteppa I'm not concerned about my own risk of dying, I'm more concerned about the vulnerable people and economic fallout from it. What happens to the world economies as they come to a stand still whilst we wait to flatten the curve.

    I'm thinking it's doable - it'll take whatever we can do to get economies through the demand shock/get past it quicker. Everything ranging from individuals buying (perhaps online) - a wider range of goods than the proverbial panic bought bog paper, through to some of the 'get through' government support packages starting to be announced everywhere.

    I think those government interventions will only increase in intensity as things go, especially for service industries, businesses, and their employees where there is no alternative to the flow of people to generate cash.

    That said, I wouldn't like to be in one of the Venezuela's of the world right now. We're all fortunate enough on TSF to be in places with first class health systems and economies........

    In terms of the long term sustainable GDP growth rate the virus shouldn'thave much effect, but the starting point will be a bit lower.

    The cash flow impacts, for say six months, will weed out overgeared companies (watch out P.E.), fragile companies which lease a lot of property, start ups, etc. and will kill the prices of mega multiple growth companies.

    One hopes a lesson will be to dial back on financial and operating leverage. Like a bushfire, it won't be all bad news.

    Perhaps the most challenging impact is on SMEs, many of which have limited cash buffers. In UK, the government is trying to implement in conjunction with the banks schemes which will fund previously solvent firms through the problem. A big issue is how to measure this as they don't want to fund businesses which would have failed anyway.

    IS NZ planning anything similar?

    At this stage there's two main things for business: (from https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/121-billion-support-new-zealanders-and-business)

    • $2.8 billion in business tax changes to free up cashflow, including a provisional tax threshold lift, the reinstatement of building depreciation and writing off interest on the late payment of tax
    • $5.1 billion in wage subsidies for affected businesses in all sectors and regions, available from today, and $126 million in COVID-19 leave and self-isolation support


  • @Victor-Meldrew I think your area is going to be a absolutely smoking it this summer.

    People will get over most of the craze quite quickly, but I suspect there will be aeroplane anxiety for a while yet.

    Somewhere you can drive to will be hugely in demand.



  • @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    Just how fucked will Africa and India be when it breaks out there? Given their population and poverty
    

    Counter-intuitively, Africa is probably better placed than we think. Some of their experience and expertise in controlling infectious diseases (e.g. Ebola and HIV) is probably as good as, if not better, than the West.

    And it is reported that the virus doesn't do well at tempertaures of over 25 degrees C.

    Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    Just how fucked will Africa and India be when it breaks out there? Given their population and poverty
    

    Counter-intuitively, Africa is probably better placed than we think. Some of their experience and expertise in controlling infectious diseases (e.g. Ebola and HIV) is probably as good as, if not better, than the West.

    And it is reported that the virus doesn't do well at tempertaures of over 25 degrees C.

    Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....

    Singapore seems to have coped well.



  • Mrs M's parents are 88 & 84, not in a good way and are self-isolating. Their other daughter, who drops by most days, works as a teacher and is dropping their groceries by the door. No physical contact.

    A nurse used to visit twice a week but that has stopped. The nurse has explained that she's tested negative, but as she visits multiple people, she'd need a test every day and that really isn't practical.

    The NHS had said it's getting in touch to offer tailored advice. We've been told visiting is OK but no physical contact, loads of handwashing and 1.5 m distance, so that will help.

    The thing we really need to work-out is hygiene and washing themselves. Once we get that we could well be OK.



  • @Rembrandt said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    Everyone is getting a lens adjustment to see the world in a different way over the next few weeks. God knows how some of the more pampered fragile folk are going to handle it.

    The thorny issue of trans-gender toilet rights seems to have become pretty passe hasn't it?



  • @Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Donsteppa I'm not concerned about my own risk of dying, I'm more concerned about the vulnerable people and economic fallout from it. What happens to the world economies as they come to a stand still whilst we wait to flatten the curve.

    I'm thinking it's doable - it'll take whatever we can do to get economies through the demand shock/get past it quicker. Everything ranging from individuals buying (perhaps online) - a wider range of goods than the proverbial panic bought bog paper, through to some of the 'get through' government support packages starting to be announced everywhere.

    I think those government interventions will only increase in intensity as things go, especially for service industries, businesses, and their employees where there is no alternative to the flow of people to generate cash.

    That said, I wouldn't like to be in one of the Venezuela's of the world right now. We're all fortunate enough on TSF to be in places with first class health systems and economies........

    In terms of the long term sustainable GDP growth rate the virus shouldn'thave much effect, but the starting point will be a bit lower.

    The cash flow impacts, for say six months, will weed out overgeared companies (watch out P.E.), fragile companies which lease a lot of property, start ups, etc. and will kill the prices of mega multiple growth companies.

    One hopes a lesson will be to dial back on financial and operating leverage. Like a bushfire, it won't be all bad news.

    Perhaps the most challenging impact is on SMEs, many of which have limited cash buffers. In UK, the government is trying to implement in conjunction with the banks schemes which will fund previously solvent firms through the problem. A big issue is how to measure this as they don't want to fund businesses which would have failed anyway.

    IS NZ planning anything similar?

    At this stage there's two main things for business: (from https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/121-billion-support-new-zealanders-and-business)

    • $2.8 billion in business tax changes to free up cashflow, including a provisional tax threshold lift, the reinstatement of building depreciation and writing off interest on the late payment of tax
    • $5.1 billion in wage subsidies for affected businesses in all sectors and regions, available from today, and $126 million in COVID-19 leave and self-isolation support

    Also, the additional money into the economy benefits business because it gets spent, so increased benefits (and the like) help business indirectly as well.



  • This guy talked sense:



  • Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....

    Singapore seems to have coped well.

    Singapore skill level - Asian



  • @Frank said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....

    Singapore seems to have coped well.

    Singapore skill level - Asian

    They did not fuck around by all accounts. They are one of the main asian hubs so got a heavy influx of Chinese travellers so they had a fair amount of ground to make up



  • @Frank said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....

    Singapore seems to have coped well.

    Singapore skill level - Asian

    They have the perfect combination of

    1. A government that is prepared to act fast
    2. A population that will listen to the government without question and do what they say.

    Makes them perfect for this sort of thing. Not so much for many others.



  • Holy shit I just realised Top Gun 2 is likely to be delayed. No movies will be released until this shit is sorted.



  • I'm starting to see a few "Unlike all the greedy people I didn't do a panic shop and now there is nothing left for me" posts on FB.

    Reality sucks when you finally see it.



  • @voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    No source I can quote, a friend who is CEO of a large listed entity got it from a friend he considers reputable. Take it as you will. Stuff seems to change by the hour at the moment anyway right?

    By essential, I take that to mean doctors, pharmacies and supermarkets and very little else.

    This recent announcement could give some weight to that.



  • Steven Cain, Chief Executive Officer, Coles Group announces:

    Recruiting over 5,000 new team members

    “To help us continue to offer the best possible service to customers during this busy time, we are recruiting an additional 5,000 casual team members to join our supermarkets across Australia. This will allow us to serve more customers and replenish shelves faster, while offering employment opportunities for Australians in industries impacted by COVID-19. We’ll be fast-tracking inductions so we can boost the number of team members on the shop floor as quickly as possible.”
    

    How good is that? Well done Coles.



  • Fark me.

    The press here have been banging on for days how Johnson needs to shut down everything, quoting various rent-a-mouths to support their view. Having done that, they are now wanting an urgent re-think as pubs and clubs are suffering from the shut-downs.

    You couldn't make this shit up.



  • @chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    Holy shit I just realised Top Gun 2 is likely to be delayed. No movies will be released until this shit is sorted.

    As an almost teenager my son was enthralled by Top Gun with Tom Cruise and the several other actors who made it such a winner. In recent weeks he mentioned how much he was looking forward to "Top Gun: Maverick".

    I warned him that often the new improved version of things - on film, in music, in life - sometimes fails to capture the magic of the original. I cited my refusal to watch The Magnificent Seven remake and the impossibility of anyone improving on the talented individual excellence of Yul Brynner, Steve McQueen, Eli Wallach, Charles Bronson, Robert Vaughn and James Coburn, or the synergy they brought sixty!! years ago.

    I didn't have the heart to tell him Iceman, at 60, is battling throat cancer and he looks it, just awful.

    Getting old and simultaneously getting crook is ordinary squared.



  • This from a mate of mine in Sweden whom I have had many fierce debates against in the last few years.

    But no joke - our chief epidemiologist actually said closing the schools would have a negative impact on gender equality.

    Of course I'm now like

    alt text



  • Kind of jarring, sitting on a plane bound for Australia, seeing people wearing masks but happy to be barefoot 🤢



  • Day 4 of lock down here in France. As the Parisians haven't been taking it seriously they are now fining people caught out without a good reason. There is a form you need to fill out and have with you.

    The UK strategy seems very odd to us here in France as presently half the ICU beds in France are occupied with cases of people under the age of 60. Now that may be because they are using them longer as they are responding to treatment. But the fact remains if they run out and you get a bad case being young won't save you if there is no ICU bed to treat you in.

    People have also started silly shopping here now as well.

    We have chossen to isolate in our place in the countryside. More space for the kids and easier to keep away from others. So far the only downside is the internet sucks here so working is not the easiest.



  • @mooshld As long as you can still Fern it'll be fine 😀



  • @mooshld said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    The UK strategy seems very odd to us here in France as presently half the ICU beds in France are occupied with cases of people under the age of 60.

    It's pretty much the same as Holland's approach. They are keeping the schools open here as the science shows closing them now will impact health workers (the NHS is very staff-heavy) and increase the infection rate as kids visit grandparents etc.

    The whole strategy is geared towards preparing for the peak expected in late April. All non-urgent operations are being cancelled from 15 April, and beds being converted to ICU.

    Some of the stats seem pretty impressive. Last week the NHS has 5,000 ventilators - within 3 weeks they will have 25,000 (multiple companies are producing 3D printed parts and the likes of BAE, Jaguar & Vauxhall are running assembly lines) ICU beds will have gone from 4,000 to 10,000 as wards are converted. There obviously been loads of stuff going on in the background.



  • @Victor-Meldrew Yep, the more that comes out, the more I'm quite impressed.

    Jury is still a long way out though on if this strategy works or not ...



  • @MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Victor-Meldrew Yep, the more that comes out, the more I'm quite impressed.

    Jury is still a long way out though on if this strategy works or not ...

    Agreed, I'm feeling somewhat more confident in them now with this current press conference. Shocking rise in cases though... Almost 2000 now. I'd love more data on range of symptoms, how many of those were serious cases etc.



  • @Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Donsteppa I'm not concerned about my own risk of dying, I'm more concerned about the vulnerable people and economic fallout from it. What happens to the world economies as they come to a stand still whilst we wait to flatten the curve.

    I'm thinking it's doable - it'll take whatever we can do to get economies through the demand shock/get past it quicker. Everything ranging from individuals buying (perhaps online) - a wider range of goods than the proverbial panic bought bog paper, through to some of the 'get through' government support packages starting to be announced everywhere.

    I think those government interventions will only increase in intensity as things go, especially for service industries, businesses, and their employees where there is no alternative to the flow of people to generate cash.

    That said, I wouldn't like to be in one of the Venezuela's of the world right now. We're all fortunate enough on TSF to be in places with first class health systems and economies........

    In terms of the long term sustainable GDP growth rate the virus shouldn'thave much effect, but the starting point will be a bit lower.

    The cash flow impacts, for say six months, will weed out overgeared companies (watch out P.E.), fragile companies which lease a lot of property, start ups, etc. and will kill the prices of mega multiple growth companies.

    One hopes a lesson will be to dial back on financial and operating leverage. Like a bushfire, it won't be all bad news.

    Perhaps the most challenging impact is on SMEs, many of which have limited cash buffers. In UK, the government is trying to implement in conjunction with the banks schemes which will fund previously solvent firms through the problem. A big issue is how to measure this as they don't want to fund businesses which would have failed anyway.

    IS NZ planning anything similar?

    At this stage there's two main things for business: (from https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/121-billion-support-new-zealanders-and-business)

    • $2.8 billion in business tax changes to free up cashflow, including a provisional tax threshold lift, the reinstatement of building depreciation and writing off interest on the late payment of tax
    • $5.1 billion in wage subsidies for affected businesses in all sectors and regions, available from today, and $126 million in COVID-19 leave and self-isolation support

    UK has gone nuclear today in support of businesses. Pretty impressive. £25k each for individual businesses, £330 billion loan guarantees.



  • @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    UK has gone nuclear today in support of businesses. Pretty impressive. £25k each for individual businesses, £330 billion loan guarantees.

    And some media commentators are complaining business will have to wait a whole week to get access to the money. Jesus wept

    Hate to sound like a broken record, but some of the media are coming across as fruitcakes. Robert Peston, an alleged economics commentator, didn't seem to know the difference between a loan and a grant and was more interested in the thorny matter of BoJo's dad going to a pub.



  • @MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @Victor-Meldrew Yep, the more that comes out, the more I'm quite impressed.

    Read today that automotive paint shops and engine assembly areas have the same sterile conditions needed to assemble medical equipment.



  • The response just simply seems to be more pragmatic, thoughtful and a view on the bigger picture - i.e, closing schools takes away a large percentage of NHS staff.

    Still cautious though, this could be the biggest fuck up ever!



  • @Frank My brother lives in Singapore. When shit like this happens there's something to be said for an autocratic leader (as long as they get it right)

    Few things also helped. Although its a hub incoming visitor numbers plummeted. He said the streets are deserted. Also the expats largely fled a month ago - two guys in his office went back to northern Italy to avoid the virus...

    However things aren't looking so rosy for Singapore today after Malaysia closed the border. They just lost 10% of the workforce and the shelves in the food shops are empty



  • @Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    UK has gone nuclear today in support of businesses. Pretty impressive. £25k each for individual businesses, £330 billion loan guarantees.

    And some media commentators are complaining business will have to wait a whole week to get access to the money. Jesus wept

    Hate to sound like a broken record, but some of the media are coming across as fruitcakes. Robert Peston, an alleged economics commentator, didn't seem to know the difference between a loan and a grant and was more interested in the thorny matter of BoJo's dad going to a pub.

    They were laying into him on old Stan wanting to go the pub wern't they ... Press also made a comment about him saying "last gasp attempts" or something along the lines, poor choice of words I agree but they should be focusing on the good. I'm sick of the same stories every day, I want to hear some of the progress being made... Stories of hope etc.... Feck I'm hormonal.



  • @R-L said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    . Press also made a comment about him saying "last gasp attempts" or something along the lines, poor choice of words

    Like it's really important that BoJo be pulled up on his choice of words when he's leading an effort to keep deaths down to the lower end of a 20,000 to 200,000 body count range in an unprecedented pandemic.

    Most of the media asked sensible, probing questions and did their job well. Others still need to realize the world has changed just a touch in the last two week



  • So is the UK following through with this Herd plan or going the way of most other countries with a ‘normal’ strategy?



  • @Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    So is the UK following through with this Herd plan or going the way of most other countries with a ‘normal’ strategy?

    There really never was a Herd plan different to "normal" countries to follow thru on. The plan's been to time interventions to reduce the peak so deaths can be reduced to a minimum - pretty much what the likes of Holland, Japan, Finland, etc are doing.

    As BoJo's advisers have said, group immunity will build as people gradually catch the disease and recover. If you don't do this and lock everything down, their view is the disease will simply resurface.



  • I thought here was no proof yet of any “immunity” after catching it?
    It’s not like we are all immune to the flu as different strains pop up as long as it is around.
    It would be great if immunity happens though.



  • @Crucial Immunity to that current strain. I think there was some evidence of at least one additional strain but in these early stages thats far from verified. It is however impossible to avoid for a year without destroying your country so best bet is getting that immunity.



  • My local this morning. Less people, more orderly queue, a couple angry queue jumpers sent to the back of the line. Announcement at the start that there was still no TP/sugar/tissues and that meat limit was 1 per customer. (Sounds like a recipe for virus transmission to me)

    There was this one old dear, in her dressing gown away from the line in one of those walkers you can sit down in. Looked like she was sobbing. I wandered over, "Do you need a hand dear?".

    think bogan af voice with no trace of sobbing "Yeah just want some drink and smokes"
    Staff member comes over, said they were going to sort her out after the queue ended.



  • @Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    Robert Peston, an alleged economics commentator,

    That's Robert Peston, an alleged economics commentator, Complete piston wristed gibbon.



  • @MajorRage said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    The response just simply seems to be more pragmatic, thoughtful and a view on the bigger picture - i.e, closing schools takes away a large percentage of NHS staff.

    Still cautious though, this could be the biggest fuck up ever!

    The thing is we just don't know which is the better response. This could backfire on Boris but it could also cement his longed for place in posterity. If this things goes well for us he will be PM for some time to come I reckon.



  • You guys living in the UK must be longing for quieter times, before Brexit, Megxit and now Covid 19 made things ‘interesting’..



  • @Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:

    You guys living in the UK must be longing for quieter times, before Brexit, Megxit and now Covid 19 made things ‘interesting’..

    Megxit? Really? Do you think any ferner was put out by Megxit??


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