Coronavirus - Overall
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It was coming back in at some stage. You're prepared for it now. Roll with it.
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Snowy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Snowy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I'm really starting to believe that we should have just let it happen. Worldwide.
Says the psychopath.
If you believe that, yeah, sure.
serial killer joke here?
The question is, how do we deal with this if no vaccine gets found. Elimination will be damn near impossible, and recessions and economic poor performance kill people too. It's pretty scary
All pandemics end with herd immunity. Vaccines just help to get there more quickly.
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Snowy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
If you are stupid enough to let people in, then the whole lock down was pointless.Letting people in to managed isolation/quarantine is fine.
Letting people out for compassionate leave is both right and appropraite - for the right cases, and with the right travel requirements is fine.
We were late to the first one, and then have swung from 'no compassionate leave even though we have allowed it' to 'whatever, go for it', back to 'no compassionate leave'.
Quarantine has one farking job. One job. FFS, I'm ropable. As for teh person who (it appears) MAY HAVE HAD SYMPTOMS, I have no words
Quarantine is absolute. No exceptions, I'm afraid.
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@Godder said in Coronavirus - Overall:
An interactive from NY Times on excess mortality in various countries and cities around the world.
Although it sounds harsh to observe it, there's one quite significant difference which such a comparison doesn't allow for.
Which is that CV mainly affects people who aren't that healthy. In contrast, Spanish flu mainly affected the young, and perversely turned a (relatively) blind eye to the elderly.
So if one looks at the years of life lost, the impact of CV is far, far lower than one might glean from a casual read of the article.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Godder said in Coronavirus - Overall:
An interactive from NY Times on excess mortality in various countries and cities around the world.
Although it sounds harsh to observe it, there's one quite significant difference which such a comparison doesn't allow for.
Which is that CV mainly affects people who aren't that healthy. In contrast, Spanish flu mainly affected the young, and perversely turned a (relatively) blind eye to the elderly.
So if one looks at the years of life lost, the impact of CV is far, far lower than one might glean from a casual read of the article.
The Spanish Flu is definitely worse on current numbers which is noted in the article, but CV is still very bad news.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Snowy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
If you are stupid enough to let people in, then the whole lock down was pointless.Letting people in to managed isolation/quarantine is fine.
Letting people out for compassionate leave is both right and appropraite - for the right cases, and with the right travel requirements is fine.
We were late to the first one, and then have swung from 'no compassionate leave even though we have allowed it' to 'whatever, go for it', back to 'no compassionate leave'.
Quarantine has one farking job. One job. FFS, I'm ropable. As for teh person who (it appears) MAY HAVE HAD SYMPTOMS, I have no words
Quarantine is absolute. No exceptions, I'm afraid.
So, they have both quarantine and managed isolation. You're probably right about quarantine - if you have symptoms, that's where you are.
Managed isolation though, the courts have ruled that you the compassionate exemptions are reasonable provided you can do it safely. It's the second bit that seemed a bit off to me here - this wasn't a single person visiting a dying relative, this was two people driving across the country together.
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Snowy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Snowy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I'm really starting to believe that we should have just let it happen. Worldwide.
Says the psychopath.
If you believe that, yeah, sure.
serial killer joke here?
The question is, how do we deal with this if no vaccine gets found. Elimination will be damn near impossible, and recessions and economic poor performance kill people too. It's pretty scary
Do what we have for every year up until now.
But protect the vulnerable (that Sweden didn't do). And strongly advice (maybe back it up with fines etc) sick people to stay at home. Rather than going to work etc and spreading it around as was done in previous years.
Unfortunately Western Govts have moved from one bullshit extreme (where sick people went to work are were applauded for it etc) to another one. Where economies have been destroyed.
And what I'd like to see is TOTAL deaths by country for the Jan to May period compared to say the last 10 years. And see how it looks. Rather than just recording Covid deaths
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I think there will be a vaccine that will confer 99.99% of people immunity. The idea that there won't seems remarkably pessimistic considering what we know about other flu vaccines and the fact many (most?) infected people have developed antibodies for COVID without life-threatening symptoms. Combine that with enormous financial incentive for the vaccine and it amazes me some people are so negative. It seems to be a combination of hardline permanent lockdown advocates and their polar opposite, the herd immunity advocates.
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@mofitzy_ said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I think there will be a vaccine that will confer 99.99% of people immunity. The idea that there won't seems remarkably pessimistic considering what we know about other flu vaccines and the fact many (most?) infected people have developed antibodies for COVID without life-threatening symptoms. Combine that with enormous financial incentive for the vaccine and it amazes me some people are so negative. It seems to be a combination of hardline permanent lockdown advocates and their polar opposite, the herd immunity advocates.
99.99% immunity. No flu vaccine has come even close to achieving this yet.
In fact we have had vaccines for over 50 years (including yearly flu vaccines) and yet here we are. A new type of flu arrives and the whole country is closed down -
@Winger
Ok, my % estimates are off (real effectiveness is closer to 70% - although this doesn't include the less serious symptoms and transmission of those who are still infected) but there are many strains of flu that can be vaccinated against, the problem is new strains occur evolve and/or jump species BUT mutations only occur if the virus is allowed to spread. So a combination of vaccination, testing and border control should allow us to return to normal - in my opinion. Maybe I am too optimistic but vaccines have effectivle wiped out many serious diseases and surely the technology for creating new vaccines and other treatments is always improving. -
@Winger said in Coronavirus - Overall:
But protect the vulnerable (that Sweden didn't do). And strongly advice (maybe back it up with fines etc) sick people to stay at home. Rather than going to work etc and spreading it around as was done in previous years.
By the time you're sick, you've been shedding virus for a few days. That's the thing that is different about this compared to SARS or MERS. Those were controlled by temp measurements as you didn't infect until you had symptoms. Not the case here.
Under your model, the virus gets into the community and probably gets away from us if we don't do something (like lifting restrictions/controls). It's damn scary.
You're right about vaccines though - I'm not a biologist, but understand this is the same family as FLU/AIDS; neither of which have effective vaccines. The Flue vaccine hits a few major flu strains, and maybe reduces the intensity, but it aint' a silver bullet.
And that, fundamentally is the question. What does the future look like if there is no vaccine? How do we return to some kind of normal?
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@nzzp we need drugs that stop people dying, then the world will normalize. Influenza used to kill you because the fever couldn't be controlled. These days paracetamol is an easy way to minimise the symptoms, the death rate compared to 1918 is tiny. Dexamethasone might be an example of the first drug that is proven to do this. Here's hoping
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7.5 billion people on earth. Perhaps we should just let it do its thing.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
7.5 billion people on earth. Perhaps we should just let it do its thing.
Awful as that sounds, nature does have a way of balancing populations out.
Economically, aging is an issue anyway so make of that what you will too.
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@Snowy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
7.5 billion people on earth. Perhaps we should just let it do its thing.
Awful as that sounds, nature does have a way of balancing populations out.
Economically, aging is an issue anyway so make of that what you will too.
the Earth's population has been rocketing ahead the last 6 months. Covid isn't even making a scratch, let alone a dent.
However the rules of modern society are, no one must ever die (in our county), and there is always somebody to blame. And so you end up where we are
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@mariner4life True, and Covid won't.
I understand the sentiment though. There are just too many people. Maybe the Chinese can come up with something better?
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@Snowy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mariner4life True, and Covid won't.
I understand the sentiment though. There are just too many people. Maybe the Chinese can come up with something better?
If them and the Indians keep beating each other to death, perhaps a third of the problem will take care of itself?