Coronavirus - Australia
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Time for what?
Expanding emergency departments, training ICU nurses, buying more ventilators/PPE, researching treatment methods, etc etc etc
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Time for what?
Expanding emergency departments, training ICU nurses, buying more ventilators/PPE, researching treatment methods, etc etc etc
For the impending Italypocalypse.
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Doesn't it give them the cover to lift some of the restrictions though? They can be comfortable with a continued outbreak because we've got the capacity to handle it.
If the worst case scenarios look better (because of greater ICU capacity) then surely that's a good thing?
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Because they won't be able to build the capacity required for the worst case scenario within the time frame stated. They freely admitted less than 10% of cases are from community transmission, more than half came from overseas travellers and yet Prof Murphy is reported saying the following:
"It's too early to tell on the trend data at the moment, but in the next week or 10 days we'll have much better trend data. "The data is still confounded by the noise of the international travellers. Once that's out of the system, we'll get a much better picture."
Noise is more than half the cases.
This is the trend:
So ruin Easter, fine. But to be still going on about six months is astonishing. Nowhere else has yet had an outbreak after a decline like ours.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Because they won't be able to build the capacity required for the worst case scenario within the time frame stated. They freely admitted less than 10% of cases are from community transmission, more than half came from overseas travellers and yet Prof Murphy is reported saying the following:
"It's too early to tell on the trend data at the moment, but in the next week or 10 days we'll have much better trend data. "The data is still confounded by the noise of the international travellers. Once that's out of the system, we'll get a much better picture."
Noise is more than half the cases.
This is the trend:
So ruin Easter, fine. But to be still going on about six months is astonishing. Nowhere else has yet had an outbreak after a decline like ours.
Who else has had a decline like ours?
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Question. Is there any data on how many passengers on board the Ruby Princess got the disease, and how many have died?
I ask because our 50th death (not somefhing to celebrate) was 62yo woman off RP. Made me wonder the rate of fatalities from those on board.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Because they won't be able to build the capacity required for the worst case scenario within the time frame stated.
No, but with every passing week we become better equipped to handle worse and worse scenarios.
And in regards to your last point, surely we're not in a position to argue on precedent with this. We're all in such unchartered territory. Nowhere else has had an outbreak after a decline, but in cricket parlance we're just after lunch on day 1.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Because they won't be able to build the capacity required for the worst case scenario within the time frame stated.
No, but with every passing week we become better equipped to handle worse and worse scenarios.
And in regards to your last point, surely we're not in a position to argue on precedent with this. We're all in such unchartered territory. Nowhere else has had an outbreak after a decline, but in cricket parlance we're just after lunch on day 1.
Japan?
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@Rapido said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Because they won't be able to build the capacity required for the worst case scenario within the time frame stated.
No, but with every passing week we become better equipped to handle worse and worse scenarios.
And in regards to your last point, surely we're not in a position to argue on precedent with this. We're all in such unchartered territory. Nowhere else has had an outbreak after a decline, but in cricket parlance we're just after lunch on day 1.
Japan?
Actually, not really. To answer my own question.
Their trajectory is more a suddenish bulge after a period of effective low containment.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Because they won't be able to build the capacity required for the worst case scenario within the time frame stated.
No, but with every passing week we become better equipped to handle worse and worse scenarios.
You realise that's not an argument when it becomes clear worse and worse scenarios aren't supported by available data? Particularly when they admit these scenarios aren't based on Australian data and outcomes don't match the models.
And in regards to your last point, surely we're not in a position to argue on precedent with this. We're all in such unchartered territory. Nowhere else has had an outbreak after a decline, but in cricket parlance we're just after lunch on day 1.
And despite fears the Covid Eleven would bat once scoring a new WR, they seem to be eight down for 50 odd.
Easter's ruined, let's not compound the error and make the cure worse than the disease.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
You realise that's not an argument when it becomes clear worse and worse scenarios aren't supported by available data? Particularly when they admit these scenarios aren't based on Australian data and outcomes don't match the models.
Yes, because we have virtually no data on this. We don't know how it will respond to a loosening of restrictions.
I realise we've gone back-and-forth over this for some time but I still don't quite understand how you condemn Government for erring on the side of caution when you see the carnage that is taking place in the US, UK, France, Italy etc.
I am sure we will see a loosening of restrictions soon enough, but I believe the consequences of going too early could be dire.
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What's the quote? "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence".
Things are going generally well. I'm happy to keep them going generally well for another 3 weeks with regular reviews, then appropriate statements first week of May.
Testing needs uplift though to support removal of restrictions, as well as monitoring and logical levels of isolation for people in the "recovery" category.
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This isn't caution. We're almost two and a half months from our first case.
@NTA said in Coronavirus - Australia:
What's the quote? "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence".
This isn't an absence of evidence. We have data and a compelling testing regime.
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Interesting update in the ACT. Still no cases of community transmission which some commentators are putting down to our urban density and ease of WFH arrangements for a greater proportion of the working population. Increased testing to cover people who present with complaints but aren't displaying covid 19 related symptoms. Half of all cases have recovered and of the five in ICU, four are on ventilator.
Chief police taking a very liberal approach of informing the community about expectations and pointing out once you're over the border in NSW, you're going to have difficulty explaining your essential travel with ACT plates and a caravan heading towards the Kings Highway.
If NSW was competent we wouldn't be effectively landlocked.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
If NSW was competent we wouldn't be effectively landlocked.
Fuck mate. You chose Canberra.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
If NSW was competent we wouldn't be effectively landlocked.
TBF, If NSW was competent they would have implemented measures you complain about most days.
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@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
If NSW was competent we wouldn't be effectively landlocked.
TBF, If NSW was competent they would have implemented measures you complain about most days.
Well that's bullshit.
They would've implemented enforced isolation for confirmed returning OS visitors and kept the Ruby Princess as a floating incubation. That's largely where the panic stemmed from. Now we're all suffering as a result.
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@NTA said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
If NSW was competent we wouldn't be effectively landlocked.
Fuck mate. You chose Canberra.
Work...
Apart from the wind and isolation, it's excellent. A police force pretty much the opposite of the People's Democratic Republic of Victoria. Large open spaces. 15min commutes. A clown show every few months when parliament sits.