Rough tips and other bets...
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Good read that but couldn't work out why neither had SWR in their top 4 until got through the write up and noted it was from a punters perspective with $4.60 being too short. I'm on at $9.50 and $9 futures so happy about that in terms of value. Still need to win of course but I reckon SWR will be very hard to beat regardless of track conditions. Great draw, maps well.
This is really going to be some race and I expect it to be run at a real clip too. Can't wait
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@infidel said in Rough tips and other bets...:
I'm having a crack at Salsamor in the Caulfield Guineas.
W D Gatland is a part owner.
Not a bad option at all mate. May have a small play there too thanks.
I also like the look of another NZ horse in Summer Passage. Backed last start at odds and it ran pretty well. Hasn't run over this distance before but actually feel its pretty well suited.Edit- summer passage scratched
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Was super impressed with Jasmine's ride. Never panicked even though she missed the kick.
She came in after and said she had 'a full horse' across the line in that he had a lot left in him if needed. That was really pleasing considering the work to get to the front.
Race here:
Click on Video tab.
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@infidel said in Rough tips and other bets...:
Great ride and win, didn't touch the whip once and plenty in reserve as you say.
Don't think you'll be getting $5 next start, might get some offers from HK?
Yes and Australia I imagine.
We won't sell to Macau as they don't have the 'end of racing career' agreement that Hong Kong has with NZ and Australia in that all horses purchased must be returned to NZ/Aus at end of career and rehomed rather than being put down.
Ricky Baker is a sweet horse. He will just come up to you in the paddock and bury his head into you to get a cuddle and scratch. Very relaxed too. He was asleep in the stalls until getting ready to race
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Galaxy Miss steps up to the mile on Saturday. I have no idea how she will go
She hasn't won sprint races because she is quick but because she is tough. I think if she can get a stress free trip she will be the tougher to fight against at the end. Maybe she will surprise.
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All good with the 1 week backup?
Waiting to see the odds for Hermanito (brother of chocante) for race 8 tomorrow at Hawera. First run was impressive and I'd quite like a bit more.
A few others I like the look of this weekend are:
Randwick race 5 - Oklahoma girl (great record over the distance)
Randwick race 10 - Machinegun jubs (great first up record. Conditions should suit)
Caulfield race 10 - Supercash (maps well and good first up record)Also keen to see how Desert Lashes goes this week at Caulfied. Was 8 wins outta 8 first 8 runs and really only knows one way and that's from the front. Had a decent spell after a hamstring injury and ran a good 2nd 2 weeks back. First time at caulfield and up against legless veuve and miss gunpowder so quite a challenge but wouldnt be surprised to see it go like a rocket from the gate again and just hold on.
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Pretty tough day yesterday saved by supercash in the last. Had it as a single along with a small multi with redzel and machinegun jubs which along with another horse and jock got stuck in the gate. Ended up being declared a non runner so multi paid out (as win double) and single bet on jubs refunded. So ended up ok
Everest was awesome. Lost a bit on she will Reign but odds allowed a couple of other bets which were on redzel and had a crack at a couple of tris which missed.
Cranbourne cup today and Lizzie Lamour should have enough to get up there. Better horse than these just a tad unlucky which has shown in the poor barrier draw but I’m still having a crack
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Happy with Galaxy Miss over 1600, she can win next up with the right jockey. Unfortunately the jock did the exact opposite to what was asked. Still, it will only be once.
Have Toodaloo running at Te Aroha on Wednesday and Tattyboglar on Saturday and potentially Ricky Baker on Sunday at Hawkes Bay
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SO whos on what for the caulfield cup?
Struggling as it appears I like half the bloody field
I straight up like Bonneval - I think the odds at $9.50 are well over and great value. Was never really planned to win last race and the previous wins were not expected / targetted either but very good runs hence being fav last start. Aim is to peak for this race to last weeks run isnt that bad as a lead in. Has been vetted all ok this week and Baker seems pretty happy. Not well drawn but shouldnt matter over this distance as will settle in back 1/3 of the field anyway.
Wouldnt be suprised to see Jon Snow shoot to the front and lead and if race goes his way could hold on for a win.
Humidor hard to disregard. Was ok in the Turnball. Gave Hartnell windburn in the Makybe Diva. Again great odds and TAB also offering $4 for any of the kiwi horses to win (so Humidor, Jon Snow or Bonneval). Big risk though is Johannes Vermeer which is being heavily backed after last weeks run. Also like Marmelo at odds but probably a run to soon to win - could be a good bet for the Melbourne Cup.
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Interesting factoid, provided by NZTR CEO Bernard Saundry in his email newsletter this week:
[...]
"The Melbourne Cup has become one of the world’s most successful sporting brands and this is illustrated by its impact in New Zealand, with the Flemington feature attracting almost ten times as much turnover as any single domestic race.
"The total turnover on Melbourne Cup day, including sports betting, is around $20 million, making it by far the biggest betting day of the year. This is a significant figure and gives the industry a wonderful chance to interact with new or mostly inactive punters.
"So it has been encouraging to see the innovative spring marketing campaign launched by the NZ Racing Board, which aims to persuade once a year Melbourne Cup punters to become more regular customers. It is also designed to make it easier for newcomers to understand racing jargon, which can be a barrier to attracting new punters.
"Domestic racing turnover has been static in recent years and it is vital that we get more New Zealanders betting on New Zealand racing." [...]
Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas
LOVERACING.NZ - New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing
