Exodus 2017
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@Billy-Tell what I meant was that in an ideal world, while these guys are no longer a big part in the ABs, they stick around playing their part at the lower levels.
Next year Dagg will likely have NMS and Ioane pressing claims for the 14 jersey, leaving Savea and Naholo to scrap it out for the 11 spot, although the thought of say NMS & Naholo/Savea on the wings think it leaves us exposed to an aerial attack.
Maybe Dagg can play 11 if NMS gets back to top form for the other wing?
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If you have to let one go it's Ben Smith just based on age and projecting out to the next RWC. To make it to 2019 anywhere close to his current form would be unprecedented.
The value of proven elite depth at 10 is more attractive to me than either of the other two. It also gives you the option of moving Beauden back to 15 if the Smith hole cannot be filled.
Also who knows how the game will develop over the next 3 years - Cruden provides a nice hedge.
Dagg will likely come the cheapest of the three simply because he seems the least interested in leaving (could have left for the cash after RWC omission and didn't) so I suspect like Jane he will be retained longer than necessary simply because he is willing to come in at a reduced rate.
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Losing Smith would be a disaster IMO.
He is one of the first names on the team sheet.
I don't see how being 33 means he will be past it. His game isn't based on top end speed or power and he is pretty solid when it comes to injuries.Losing Cruden and Dagg wouldn't be ideal but there is cover there.
Hipefully we don't see a mini exodus after the Lions. May dent our RWC hopes a little.
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The Lions series will be a big incentive for a lot of the AB veterans. I'm sure NZR would have liked to have contracted their best players until 2019 to have some security leading into the next RWC.
For the 3 players mentioned, and others whose contract expires in 2017, I don't think it's any coincidence that is linked to being available for the Lions and then having more leverage when negotiating a new contract. Or having the option to head up north. But as Sorenson said, if it's only about the money then NZR can't compete.
I think Cruden is the most likely to go. With Smith and Dagg, Dagg's decision may be dependent on Smith's because if BFA leaves Dagg would be the best option at FB. What Hansen won't want is a repeat of 1990 with Gallagher and Ridge.
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@pukunui said in Exodus 2017:
Losing Smith would be a disaster IMO.
He is one of the first names on the team sheet.If you had have asked me in 2012 to bet the farm on one player making it to the 2015 RWC squad I would have bet Dagg - based on age/form/talent. That didn't pan out.
Players fall off, and quick, before him Mils looked one of our best in 2009 (admittedly there wasn't much competition) and the next year he turned up off the pace in the shadow of Dagg.
We are almost certainly going to get an infusion of back talent over the next three years that need to be accommodated J.Barrett, R.Ioane, D.MacKenzie we know about, NMS will return. There will be others.
At this point in the 2011 cycle Dagg was unknown, Jane and Kahui were on the very periphery of the squad and SBW was in France.
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@rotated said in Exodus 2017:
@pukunui said in Exodus 2017:
Losing Smith would be a disaster IMO.
He is one of the first names on the team sheet.If you had have asked me in 2012 to bet the farm on one player making it to the 2015 RWC squad I would have bet Dagg - based on age/form/talent. That didn't pan out.
Players fall off, and quick, before him Mils looked one of our best in 2009 (admittedly there wasn't much competition) and the next year he turned up off the pace in the shadow of Dagg.
We are almost certainly going to get an infusion of back talent over the next three years that need to be accommodated J.Barrett, R.Ioane, D.MacKenzie we know about, NMS will return. There will be others.
At this point in the 2011 cycle Dagg was unknown, Jane and Kahui were on the very periphery of the squad and SBW was in France.
Similarly guys like Mccaw, Carter, Kaino, Mealamu, Nonu, Smith and Woodcock were written off countless times but most of them were huge at RWC 2015.
I just think Smith's strongest attributes aren't the sorts of things that are affected by age so much. -
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Irish papers full of Ben Smith to Munster for €750k a season today but I can't see it for a couple of reasons.
Firstly even if we could afford that which I doubt, he could comfortably earn double that amount and more in France. We're a long way from where we once were financially.
Secondly, of all the areas Munster could do with a world class operator (hooker, lock, maybe even outhalf), the back 3 feels like the last of them.
Smith is one of my favourite players in the world and it would be a signing as exciting as Howlett was. But we have Zebo, Earls and Conway in that back 3 with a huge prospect in Darren Sweetnam and another good chance in Ronan O'Mahony.
With all the work Nucifora is doing, I can't see him allowing us sign a world class fullback/winger to stand in the way of their progression.
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@Bovidae said in Exodus 2017:
I think Cruden is the most likely to go. With Smith and Dagg, Dagg's decision may be dependent on Smith's because if BFA leaves Dagg would be the best option at FB. What Hansen won't want is a repeat of 1990 with Gallagher and Ridge.
Gallagher & Ridge going was bad, but it was more that Botica, Crossan & Halligan went too... we went from worlds best fullback to 6th choice NZer in about 6 months
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@gollum said in Exodus 2017:
@Bovidae said in Exodus 2017:
I think Cruden is the most likely to go. With Smith and Dagg, Dagg's decision may be dependent on Smith's because if BFA leaves Dagg would be the best option at FB. What Hansen won't want is a repeat of 1990 with Gallagher and Ridge.
Gallagher & Ridge going was bad, but it was more that Botica, Crossan & Halligan went too... we went from worlds best fullback to 6th choice NZer in about 6 months
So let's apply that scenario now for arguments sake.
We lose BFA and Dagg. Our next best fullback option is BB but he would prefer to play 10. Next cabs are who? DMac? .....NMS? The cupboard is pretty bare and it somewhat surprises me that they took the collective eye off the position for so long without working on backups.
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Is Nanai tied to Samoa?
Given the key is to be able to catch a bomb I think that rules out NMS, maybe even Dmac given his height. Tho' he has a better jump than NMS
I think they would lean towards Barrett, same way Frano became a 15 option.
Its a tough position to develop in Super rugby - bit like 7 & 13 in that what works there in Super does not directly translate to Test rugby, so players often get to the top in Super sides despite being very unsuited to tests.
Edit.. when is Charles Piatau back?
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@gollum said in Exodus 2017:
Charles Piatau
He'll be available at the end of the 2017/2018 season.
So some time in May 2018.
That's if he doesn't re-sign with another club.I feel like he'll be an important addition to the World Cup squad considering we seem to have a few aging players without a lot of experienced guys behind them.
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@gollum My point was more that Ridge only signed for Manly as he knew Gallagher was always going to be selected in the ABs ahead of him. And then Kipper signed for Leeds.
As Smith and Dagg are good mates I hope they're talking to eachother about their future plans.
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@munstergreen said in Exodus 2017:
With all the work Nucifora is doing, I can't see him allowing us sign a world class fullback/winger to stand in the way of their progression.
It really is the twilight zone up there where Nucifora, Lam and to a lesser extent Anscombe are respected as slick operators.
Smith has utility value, so wouldn't necessarily be seen as a pure fullback. The trend of many of the more successful teams has been two play a hybrid fullback/wing type player in the 14 jerseys anyway.
Apparently good in the sheds, leadership etc - plus his key skills are not going to diminish quickly with age.
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@Crucial said in Exodus 2017:
@gollum said in Exodus 2017:
@Bovidae said in Exodus 2017:
I think Cruden is the most likely to go. With Smith and Dagg, Dagg's decision may be dependent on Smith's because if BFA leaves Dagg would be the best option at FB. What Hansen won't want is a repeat of 1990 with Gallagher and Ridge.
Gallagher & Ridge going was bad, but it was more that Botica, Crossan & Halligan went too... we went from worlds best fullback to 6th choice NZer in about 6 months
So let's apply that scenario now for arguments sake.
We lose BFA and Dagg. Our next best fullback option is BB but he would prefer to play 10. Next cabs are who? DMac? .....NMS? The cupboard is pretty bare and it somewhat surprises me that they took the collective eye off the position for so long without working on backups.
they what? took their eye off what? They have Smith (who is seemingly always available) and Dagg, 2 genuinely world class players in the position. And behind them you have Barrett as a very capable back-up. Add to that they bought in the next best performing Super rugby fullback to get test experience. But they haven't done enough? Just how far down the food chain do you expect them to go, while at the same time winning every test, which we also want? There are 5 fulltime, professional starting fullbacks in the country, 3 of them played tests this year. That's a winger-esque comment Crucial, you are better than that.
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@mariner4life there was similar debate about 2011/2012 around DC, being critical of the issues that arose in the 2011 RWC at 10....was very funny, we were down to using our 5th 10 then (Weepu played at 10 at some point IIRC - DC, Slade, Cruden, Donald, Weepu) and yet somehow the coaches shoulda had the foresight to develop more depth.
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@taniwharugby said in Exodus 2017:
@mariner4life there was similar debate about 2011/2012 around DC, being critical of the issues that arose in the 2011 RWC at 10....was very funny, we were down to using our 5th 10 then (Weepu played at 10 at some point IIRC - DC, Slade, Cruden, Donald, Weepu) and yet somehow the coaches shoulda had the foresight to develop more depth.
I thought they got a lot of praise at the time for having blooded those guys (Donald, Cruden) and not axed them so brutally they left or were unselectable?
Literally the opposite to the way Deans & Mitch handled Merts & Cullen which then bit us in the arse at the 2003 WC.
Same way Joe Rokocoko has spent a lot of time playing centre up north, and been surprisingly good.
OH! that just reminded me of a thing I read in the Sunday Times re the pillaging of Fiji in France & this bit stood out -
Ryan says. So when the opportunity arises to go abroad, the players see it as their right to take it, to bring financial help to their communities. That is why there are about 165 Fijian players in France alone. “A percentage of them come and fail,” Ryan explains, “and generally it’s because of a cowboy agent who signed them and left them, they don’t get help, they are drinking too much, they are getting lonely. . .”
There is a strong Islander community, though. If Joe Rokocoko, who is at Racing 92, for instance, or Akapusi Qera, the captain who is at Montpellier, hear of players in trouble, they try to help them out. “They are the unofficial guardians,” Ryan says. “That is part of Pacific Island culture.”
For anyone who ever slagged of Joe's workrate, give yourself a neckroll.
