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Nice @Donsteppa
I'm also curious as to why various agencies are backing up all their data to servers in Canada and Europe.
After all, isn't it easy to just fake climate data? NASA corrupted all theirs according to our village idiot Senator Malcolm Roberts.
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I noticed the Mexican President cancelled the meeting with Trump because of Trump's desire to make Mexico pay for the wall. My take on this is the US has big leverage over mexico because - " 84% of Mexican exports by value are delivered to fellow North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) members United States and Canada." (assuming maybe 75% to the US).
I think Mexico is in for a hard few years. This is something sent to me by my friend in North Carolina.
It's not America's job to make things better in Mexico, that's Mexico's job, and if it can't, then the folks there need to have a revolution, either bloodless, hopefully, or not.
The Mexican people have the government they deserve.
They've had years now of narco-killings, with over 100,000 dead, plus billions plundered from their treasury due to corruption, and life just goes on, with a demonstration here and there, and then everyone's ok with everything again, with dirty drinking water, with streets full of potholes, with shuttered businesses, with judges being murdered in broad daylight in affluent neighborhoods.
Many Mexicans' definition of success is to someday be in a position where they can screw over every other Mexican and take what they haven't legally earned.
There's a saying in Mexico, "Si no tranzas, no avanzas." Translation, "If you don't cheat to get ahead, you won't get ahead." That is the dominant mentality for a large portion of the Mexican populace.
There's lots of positive things I can say about Mexicans and Mexican culture, but the fact is there's a dominant culture of compadrismo in Mexico. There are undercurrents of professionalism within Mexico, but they are not the dominant faction. This compadrismo results in an entire nation run by a few competent people and many, many, many incompetent people, usually the relatives or friends of the competent people.
In the U.S., sure, there's favoritism, but to a much larger degree, folks hire the person most competent for the job.
In Mexico, families are much closer than in the U.S., and that's fantastic in many respects, but it has at least one huge negative effect when it comes to hiring.
When one Mexican "makes it" into a good job, be it in the gov't or in the private sector, the first thing he does is recruit his family and friends, all of them, be they competent or not, to work under him.
If you replicate this scenario 1000 times, you get a nation that's barely holding together, kept afloat only thanks to the excess resources created by the dynamic system of the neighbor to the north.
These resources include intellectual capital, hard currency, and jobs, both in the U.S. and in Mexico itself.
In addition to that, Mexico is lucky enough to count on the natural resources of the land, be it ancient Maya ruins and beaches that attract tourists from all over the world or oil in the ground below.
If Mexico didn't have all these resources to continually subsidize its ineptitude, it would be in even worse shape than it is today.
Illegal immigration from Mexico to the U.S. has long been a pressure release valve for Mexico's corrupt ruling class because the very people most likely to protest, to overturn the existing order, the young, the able-bodied, those that want to work for a fair wage instead of a slave wage, those people move to America in search of a better life.
The other option for most of them is to scream at a deaf system.
If that wall is built, illegal immigrants are deported, and legal immigration is tightened, Mexico may experience a revolution which it badly needs. Whether something better replaces it is up for conjecture, but the current Mexican gov't is not meeting the needs of its people.
In the short term, a revolution could cause a refugee crisis, depending on whether it's bloodless or not, but in the long term, once things stabilize and Mexico cleans house, it would be a great thing for both countries, but especially for Mexico.
Sometimes a country needs a good bitch slap to get its act together.
Donald J. Trump is that bitch slap.
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Also, while Mexico has some serious shit going on:
@Frank said in US Politics:
If Mexico didn't have all these resources to continually subsidize its ineptitude, it would be in even worse shape than it is today.
The US has long subsidised a lot of its industries - and bailed them out - leaving many people worse off due to poor practices. The US could in fact be in better shape, economically. So The Donald has a great opportunity there.
those that want to work for a fair wage instead of a slave wage, those people move to America in search of a better life.
This from a country with a minimum wage that can barely meet its living costs. Yeah, its still better than Mexico, but correspondingly more expensive to live. At least the migrants will do the shit jobs, and live a dozen to a house. Then they can just turn to crime when that doesn't work out.
Overall, the US has a heck of a lot of power over Mexico, being their main trading partner. The US has Mexico as their third largest (Canada and China the top two) so its not an insignificant relationship.
What I'd find interesting is if the US called a halt to the War on Drugs - probably the most ineffectual PR stunt ever pulled - and let the cartels in Mexico just die a natural death once the money dries up.
Reckon Trump could save a shitload of money that way. Maybe even put all those DEA guys on border watch.
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It'll be interesting to see whether Mexico caves or not.
If they dont, I'll wager it's a place to avoid for the next few years - and I don't see how that will help the 'war' on drugs, or help to reduce illegal immigration if it goes off the rails.
The beautiful irony is that poor-to-working classes in many of the areas that supported him might be most affected as it seems to primarily influence consumer goods and will strongly influence border states. E.g., According the Dallas news, Texas imported $84 billion from Mexico in 2015. With a 20 percent tariff, Texas businesses and consumers would have paid an extra $16.8 billion for the same goods and services.
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2017/01/26/trumps-20-percent-tax-mexican-imports-force-us-consumers-pay-wallIf I had to bet, Mexico will fold.
If not, life gets interesting because the last time the US put up tariff barriers like that, we got the Great Depression
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I am cutting my posting in this thread to once a day, max. But it's long. It's long, due to having a real leader in their Whitehouse.
Thanks for the post, Frank.
I still suspect the real number is higher:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/26/hillary-clinton-received-800000-votes-from-nonciti/Adding an import tax is not the right way for Mexico to pay for the wall.
They shouldn't stop the War on Drugs, but rather do it better. Additionally, buidling a wall is one of the measures they will implement to diminish the flow of drugs. Drugs are a terrible thing for society. Over 4 terms of effective Republican leadership, there could be a strong gain in this area (workforce, health of the afflicted citizenry and impact on their loved ones, values).
Also, if there are fewer weapons flowing to Mexico, the cartels will be weakened and there will be an opportunity to be crush them. This is an area Mexico and US could work together more, over time. The post from Frank shows that there are many more areas and gains Mexico can make if leadership gets on board with Trump.America has lost 1 Trillion $ to Mexico in trade defecits since Nafta was signed.
Many of the liberals hold weak views within a leftist Overton Window, continually promoted by MSM and the Establishment.
A list of the Trump accomplishments....not compiled by me, so don't pick through it negatively and expect me to care.
Before taking office:
Trump negotiated with Ford to stay in Kentucky instead of moving to Mexico
Trump negotiated with Carrier to stay in Indiana instead of moving to Mexico
Trump negotiated with SoftBank of Japan to invest $50 billion in the United States
Trump negotiated with U.S. Steel to reinvest$10 billion in the U.S. and rehire laid off workers, creating 10,000 jobs
Trump negotiated with TransLux to move full manufacturing from China back to U.S.
Trump negotiated with Foxconn to invest 7 billion in the US and expand production creating 50,000 jobs
Trump negotiated with IBM to invest $1 billion in the U.S., hire 25,000 U.S. workers, and open 20 tech vocational schools creating 25,000 jobs
Trump negotiated with Tesla, Panasonic to make solar cells in Buffalo, New York...1,500+ jobs...$5 billion Investment
Trump negotiated with Sprint to bring 5,000 jobs back to the U.S. and OneWeb to create 3,000 jobs
Trump negotiated with Ford Cancels $1.6 billion Mexico Plant. Will Expand in Michigan...700 Jobs...$700 million Investment
Trump negotiated with Stanley Black and Decker to Open $35 million plant in US...Jobs number not yet available...$35 million Investment
Trump negotiated with Fiat Chrysler to Invest $1 billion in Michigan and Ohio Link...2,000 Jobs...$1 billion investment
Trump negotiated with Toyota to invest $10 billion in the U.S. over 5 years...Jobs number not yet available...$10 billion investment
Trump negotiated with Amazon to create 100,000 jobs over next 18 months...100,000 Jobs...Investment total not available
Trump negotiated with Lockheed to reduce F35 cost and add 1,800 jobs in Texas...1,800 Jobs...Investment total not available
Trump negotiated with GM to invest $1 billion in the U.S. and create/retain 1,000 jobs...$1 billion investment
Trump negotiated with Hyundai-Kia to invest $3.1 billion in the U.S. over 5 years...Jobs number not available...$3.1 billion investment
Trump negotiated with Walmart to invest $6.8 billion and create 34,000 jobs...$6.8 billion investment
Trump negotiated with Bayer to invest $8 billion in the U.S. after meeting with Trump...3,000 Jobs
Trump negotiated with Kroger plans 2017 expansion adding 10,000 jobs...Investment total not available
Trump negotiated with Toyota to add 400 jobs to Indiana plant....$600 million investment
After taking office:
Trump erased all mentions on the White House web site of “climate change.” He did that within ONE HOUR of taking the oath of office.
Trump issued an Executive order to “ease the burden of Obamacare”
Trump returned the bust of Winston Churchill to the oval office
Trump withdrew America from the TPP treaty
Trump erased all Spanish language from the White House web site. It is now “English Only.”
Trump issued an Executive order starting the construction of “THE WALL.”
Trump issued an Executive order banning funding to foreign pro-abortion groups
Trumps new Secretary of Defense James ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis took the fight to ISIS by bombing them 31 times on his first day as the new Secretary of Defense
Trump announced temporary ban on refugees from Syria and Middle Eastern war zones
Trump imposed a media blackout at the Environmental Protection Agency and barred staff from awarding new contracts or grants
Trump announced a ban on visas from dangerous Muslim-majority countries with inadequate screening
Trump announced the end of “Sanctuary cities” and the defunding of federal funds for any city that chooses to continue breaking the law
Trump announced the hiring of 10,000 new border agents
Trump signed an Executive order demanding the Secretary of Homeland Security publish a weekly list of violent crimes committed by illegal aliens
Trump signed an Executive order freezing the hiring of non-essential federal employees
Trump said out loud the words “radical Islamic terrorism.”
Trump stopped payment on Obama’s final hour giveaway of $220 million to the Palestinian Authority
Trump used Executive orders to give the go-ahead to the long-stalled Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines
Trump got the State Department’s entire senior management team to resign in frustration.
Trump announced his intention to withdraw From Climate & Environmental Accords Along With UN Funding Cuts of 40%
Trump tweeted “Ungrateful TRAITOR Chelsea Manning, who should never have been released from prison, is now calling President Obama a weak leader. Terrible!”
Trump announced he’ll begin a major investigation into voter fraud in the 2016 election
Trump got the chief of the Border Patrol to leave the agency in frustration at having to actually do his job!
State Dept. Arms Control chief fired while on airplane by Trump, told to turn around and fly back!
Miami-Dade mayor orders jails to comply with Trump crackdown on ‘sanctuary’ counties -
This "journalist" writes for the Atlantic.
There was also a fake news story by the Washington Post concerning State Dept firings, but these are becoming so common-place its getting boring. I watched CNN today and could see how they crafted the segment for maximum ridicule of Trump. It's war.
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@Wairau said in US Politics:
I still suspect the real number is higher:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/26/hillary-clinton-received-800000-votes-from-nonciti/I hope you read more than just the attention grabbing headline? Like this part about the accuracy of the survey and extrapolation. Oh, and the fact that the survey was regarding the 2008 election so the headline claim is a guess based on a wide range of possible results from a different set of data to the one they refer to. But, it's totally credible.
"Three professors at Old Dominion University — Mr. Richman, Gulshan A. Chattha and David C. Earnest — took these answers, did further research and extrapolated that of a 19.4 million estimate of adult noncitizens, about 620,000 were illegally registered to vote in the 2008 presidential election. Using other measuring tools, they said, the actual number of noncitizen voters could be as low as 38,000 and as high as 2.8 million."
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Now go through that list & get rid of the ones that aren't really an "acheivement" - eg gagging departments while this -
Trump tweeted “Ungrateful TRAITOR
Is an acheivement? Really? That's genuinely what you regard as a presidential level "acheivment"? to tweet. Cause Obama went on the Daily Show a couple of times, thats a bit above that surely? You know, if thats an "acheivement"
Then go through & get rid of the ones - especially in the case of factories, where the plans were in place 1 year ago & just "reannounced" and ones like Foxcon -
“There is such a plan, but it is not a promise. It is a wish,” Foxconn’s chief executive officer, Terry Gou, told reporters on Sunday. Gou added that he wanted guarantees of inexpensive land and electricity before the company made its investment and warned against US protectionism, according to Reuters.
This is not the first time Gou has said he wanted to build a facility in the US. In 2013, Foxconn promised to invest “over $30m to build a high-tech manufacturing facility” in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, according to a Bloomberg report. The plant never materialized.
And you are left with "Trump moved a statue"
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@Crucial said in US Politics:
@Wairau said in US Politics:
I still suspect the real number is higher:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/26/hillary-clinton-received-800000-votes-from-nonciti/I hope you read more than just the attention grabbing headline? Like this part about the accuracy of the survey and extrapolation. Oh, and the fact that the survey was regarding the 2008 election so the headline claim is a guess based on a wide range of possible results from a different set of data to the one they refer to. But, it's totally credible.
"Three professors at Old Dominion University — Mr. Richman, Gulshan A. Chattha and David C. Earnest — took these answers, did further research and extrapolated that of a 19.4 million estimate of adult noncitizens, about 620,000 were illegally registered to vote in the 2008 presidential election. Using other measuring tools, they said, the actual number of noncitizen voters could be as low as 38,000 and as high as 2.8 million."
Hold on? Didn't I link to the study showing that was bullshit above?
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@gt12 said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@Wairau said in US Politics:
I still suspect the real number is higher:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/26/hillary-clinton-received-800000-votes-from-nonciti/I hope you read more than just the attention grabbing headline? Like this part about the accuracy of the survey and extrapolation. Oh, and the fact that the survey was regarding the 2008 election so the headline claim is a guess based on a wide range of possible results from a different set of data to the one they refer to. But, it's totally credible.
"Three professors at Old Dominion University — Mr. Richman, Gulshan A. Chattha and David C. Earnest — took these answers, did further research and extrapolated that of a 19.4 million estimate of adult noncitizens, about 620,000 were illegally registered to vote in the 2008 presidential election. Using other measuring tools, they said, the actual number of noncitizen voters could be as low as 38,000 and as high as 2.8 million."
Hold on? Didn't I link to the study showing that was bullshit above?
???
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Speaking of which, in addition to Bannon & Ivanka -
Jared & Spicer are registered to vote in 2 states too...
#drainthesweamp....
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@gollum said in US Politics:
Speaking of which, in addition to Bannon & Ivanka -
Jared & Spicer are registered to vote in 2 states too...
#drainthesweamp....
I really don't care about how many Trumpies are registered in two states. The stupid part is referring to a flawed enrollment system as fraud. Yes, there are technical illegalities (just as there are in most democratic elections) but calling them all 'fraud' is plain stupid.
If there is a genuine problem that illegal voting is causing problems with results then evidence it and fix it by all means, but is has to be non-partisan.
This is more about ego and claims about Trump's presidency being by default due to the popular vote.
The last administration went some way to actually fix the issue with stronger ID requirements in place for any new voters. The obvious next step is to find a way to clean up existing registrations. -
I agree, its in reply to the Pro Trumps too stupid to realize being registerred in 2 states is not illegal & holding it up as an example of fraud. Saying "thats not actually illegal" doesn't work, so saying "the people you adore are actually doing it too" maybe works instead.
Nothing done by Ivanka etc is fraud, just as it wasn't fraud when anyone else did it.
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I may be wrong, but isn't this the study that was being referred to? It was shit science, and shown to be. Using those numbers for prediction is even shitter science.
There has been one study published which has claimed non-citizens have swayed elections, although the dataset used was questioned by the people who actually collected it (i.e., the study used other researchers' data), and they then refuted the findings in a following paper, where they explained that Richman was trying to extrapolate from a very small fraction of respondents to the survey, even these very small amounts of measurement error could cause major problems for his analysis. To get a more valid estimate of non-citizen voting, we can look at the 85 respondents who said that they were non-citizens in both waves of the survey. Since this group answered the question the same way twice, we can be much more confident that they really are non-citizens. Among these 85 respondents, zero were matched to a valid vote record in 2010..
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Thanks @gt12 I had missed that earlier.
It just read to me like an academic exercise from a political studies dept to create debate among students about validity and the use of surveys. Totally valid thing to do if that is correct.
Totally invalid thing to use as support to create a headline.
I don't think anyone is arguing that there isn't 'illegal' voting. It stands to reason that there is, especially given the flawed registration system in the past establishing voters that shouldn't be entitled to vote.
The argument is whether it is correct to claim 'fraud' and create a perception of either organised illegal voting or illegal voting that has a material effect favouring one party over another.
By the way, surely if you aren't claiming some kind of organised illegality then the 'illegals' that have voted are no different to other voters in that they have a choice and any candidate can make their case for that vote?
If all of these 'illegal' votes were somehow able to be identified and tallied I actually suspect that the most likely material effect was in Florida.
US Politics