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It'll be interesting to see whether Mexico caves or not.
If they dont, I'll wager it's a place to avoid for the next few years - and I don't see how that will help the 'war' on drugs, or help to reduce illegal immigration if it goes off the rails.
The beautiful irony is that poor-to-working classes in many of the areas that supported him might be most affected as it seems to primarily influence consumer goods and will strongly influence border states. E.g., According the Dallas news, Texas imported $84 billion from Mexico in 2015. With a 20 percent tariff, Texas businesses and consumers would have paid an extra $16.8 billion for the same goods and services.
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2017/01/26/trumps-20-percent-tax-mexican-imports-force-us-consumers-pay-wallIf I had to bet, Mexico will fold.
If not, life gets interesting because the last time the US put up tariff barriers like that, we got the Great Depression
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I am cutting my posting in this thread to once a day, max. But it's long. It's long, due to having a real leader in their Whitehouse.
Thanks for the post, Frank.
I still suspect the real number is higher:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/26/hillary-clinton-received-800000-votes-from-nonciti/Adding an import tax is not the right way for Mexico to pay for the wall.
They shouldn't stop the War on Drugs, but rather do it better. Additionally, buidling a wall is one of the measures they will implement to diminish the flow of drugs. Drugs are a terrible thing for society. Over 4 terms of effective Republican leadership, there could be a strong gain in this area (workforce, health of the afflicted citizenry and impact on their loved ones, values).
Also, if there are fewer weapons flowing to Mexico, the cartels will be weakened and there will be an opportunity to be crush them. This is an area Mexico and US could work together more, over time. The post from Frank shows that there are many more areas and gains Mexico can make if leadership gets on board with Trump.America has lost 1 Trillion $ to Mexico in trade defecits since Nafta was signed.
Many of the liberals hold weak views within a leftist Overton Window, continually promoted by MSM and the Establishment.
A list of the Trump accomplishments....not compiled by me, so don't pick through it negatively and expect me to care.
Before taking office:
Trump negotiated with Ford to stay in Kentucky instead of moving to Mexico
Trump negotiated with Carrier to stay in Indiana instead of moving to Mexico
Trump negotiated with SoftBank of Japan to invest $50 billion in the United States
Trump negotiated with U.S. Steel to reinvest$10 billion in the U.S. and rehire laid off workers, creating 10,000 jobs
Trump negotiated with TransLux to move full manufacturing from China back to U.S.
Trump negotiated with Foxconn to invest 7 billion in the US and expand production creating 50,000 jobs
Trump negotiated with IBM to invest $1 billion in the U.S., hire 25,000 U.S. workers, and open 20 tech vocational schools creating 25,000 jobs
Trump negotiated with Tesla, Panasonic to make solar cells in Buffalo, New York...1,500+ jobs...$5 billion Investment
Trump negotiated with Sprint to bring 5,000 jobs back to the U.S. and OneWeb to create 3,000 jobs
Trump negotiated with Ford Cancels $1.6 billion Mexico Plant. Will Expand in Michigan...700 Jobs...$700 million Investment
Trump negotiated with Stanley Black and Decker to Open $35 million plant in US...Jobs number not yet available...$35 million Investment
Trump negotiated with Fiat Chrysler to Invest $1 billion in Michigan and Ohio Link...2,000 Jobs...$1 billion investment
Trump negotiated with Toyota to invest $10 billion in the U.S. over 5 years...Jobs number not yet available...$10 billion investment
Trump negotiated with Amazon to create 100,000 jobs over next 18 months...100,000 Jobs...Investment total not available
Trump negotiated with Lockheed to reduce F35 cost and add 1,800 jobs in Texas...1,800 Jobs...Investment total not available
Trump negotiated with GM to invest $1 billion in the U.S. and create/retain 1,000 jobs...$1 billion investment
Trump negotiated with Hyundai-Kia to invest $3.1 billion in the U.S. over 5 years...Jobs number not available...$3.1 billion investment
Trump negotiated with Walmart to invest $6.8 billion and create 34,000 jobs...$6.8 billion investment
Trump negotiated with Bayer to invest $8 billion in the U.S. after meeting with Trump...3,000 Jobs
Trump negotiated with Kroger plans 2017 expansion adding 10,000 jobs...Investment total not available
Trump negotiated with Toyota to add 400 jobs to Indiana plant....$600 million investment
After taking office:
Trump erased all mentions on the White House web site of “climate change.” He did that within ONE HOUR of taking the oath of office.
Trump issued an Executive order to “ease the burden of Obamacare”
Trump returned the bust of Winston Churchill to the oval office
Trump withdrew America from the TPP treaty
Trump erased all Spanish language from the White House web site. It is now “English Only.”
Trump issued an Executive order starting the construction of “THE WALL.”
Trump issued an Executive order banning funding to foreign pro-abortion groups
Trumps new Secretary of Defense James ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis took the fight to ISIS by bombing them 31 times on his first day as the new Secretary of Defense
Trump announced temporary ban on refugees from Syria and Middle Eastern war zones
Trump imposed a media blackout at the Environmental Protection Agency and barred staff from awarding new contracts or grants
Trump announced a ban on visas from dangerous Muslim-majority countries with inadequate screening
Trump announced the end of “Sanctuary cities” and the defunding of federal funds for any city that chooses to continue breaking the law
Trump announced the hiring of 10,000 new border agents
Trump signed an Executive order demanding the Secretary of Homeland Security publish a weekly list of violent crimes committed by illegal aliens
Trump signed an Executive order freezing the hiring of non-essential federal employees
Trump said out loud the words “radical Islamic terrorism.”
Trump stopped payment on Obama’s final hour giveaway of $220 million to the Palestinian Authority
Trump used Executive orders to give the go-ahead to the long-stalled Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines
Trump got the State Department’s entire senior management team to resign in frustration.
Trump announced his intention to withdraw From Climate & Environmental Accords Along With UN Funding Cuts of 40%
Trump tweeted “Ungrateful TRAITOR Chelsea Manning, who should never have been released from prison, is now calling President Obama a weak leader. Terrible!”
Trump announced he’ll begin a major investigation into voter fraud in the 2016 election
Trump got the chief of the Border Patrol to leave the agency in frustration at having to actually do his job!
State Dept. Arms Control chief fired while on airplane by Trump, told to turn around and fly back!
Miami-Dade mayor orders jails to comply with Trump crackdown on ‘sanctuary’ counties -
This "journalist" writes for the Atlantic.
There was also a fake news story by the Washington Post concerning State Dept firings, but these are becoming so common-place its getting boring. I watched CNN today and could see how they crafted the segment for maximum ridicule of Trump. It's war.
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@Wairau said in US Politics:
I still suspect the real number is higher:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/26/hillary-clinton-received-800000-votes-from-nonciti/I hope you read more than just the attention grabbing headline? Like this part about the accuracy of the survey and extrapolation. Oh, and the fact that the survey was regarding the 2008 election so the headline claim is a guess based on a wide range of possible results from a different set of data to the one they refer to. But, it's totally credible.
"Three professors at Old Dominion University — Mr. Richman, Gulshan A. Chattha and David C. Earnest — took these answers, did further research and extrapolated that of a 19.4 million estimate of adult noncitizens, about 620,000 were illegally registered to vote in the 2008 presidential election. Using other measuring tools, they said, the actual number of noncitizen voters could be as low as 38,000 and as high as 2.8 million."
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Now go through that list & get rid of the ones that aren't really an "acheivement" - eg gagging departments while this -
Trump tweeted “Ungrateful TRAITOR
Is an acheivement? Really? That's genuinely what you regard as a presidential level "acheivment"? to tweet. Cause Obama went on the Daily Show a couple of times, thats a bit above that surely? You know, if thats an "acheivement"
Then go through & get rid of the ones - especially in the case of factories, where the plans were in place 1 year ago & just "reannounced" and ones like Foxcon -
“There is such a plan, but it is not a promise. It is a wish,” Foxconn’s chief executive officer, Terry Gou, told reporters on Sunday. Gou added that he wanted guarantees of inexpensive land and electricity before the company made its investment and warned against US protectionism, according to Reuters.
This is not the first time Gou has said he wanted to build a facility in the US. In 2013, Foxconn promised to invest “over $30m to build a high-tech manufacturing facility” in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, according to a Bloomberg report. The plant never materialized.
And you are left with "Trump moved a statue"
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@Crucial said in US Politics:
@Wairau said in US Politics:
I still suspect the real number is higher:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/26/hillary-clinton-received-800000-votes-from-nonciti/I hope you read more than just the attention grabbing headline? Like this part about the accuracy of the survey and extrapolation. Oh, and the fact that the survey was regarding the 2008 election so the headline claim is a guess based on a wide range of possible results from a different set of data to the one they refer to. But, it's totally credible.
"Three professors at Old Dominion University — Mr. Richman, Gulshan A. Chattha and David C. Earnest — took these answers, did further research and extrapolated that of a 19.4 million estimate of adult noncitizens, about 620,000 were illegally registered to vote in the 2008 presidential election. Using other measuring tools, they said, the actual number of noncitizen voters could be as low as 38,000 and as high as 2.8 million."
Hold on? Didn't I link to the study showing that was bullshit above?
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@gt12 said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@Wairau said in US Politics:
I still suspect the real number is higher:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/26/hillary-clinton-received-800000-votes-from-nonciti/I hope you read more than just the attention grabbing headline? Like this part about the accuracy of the survey and extrapolation. Oh, and the fact that the survey was regarding the 2008 election so the headline claim is a guess based on a wide range of possible results from a different set of data to the one they refer to. But, it's totally credible.
"Three professors at Old Dominion University — Mr. Richman, Gulshan A. Chattha and David C. Earnest — took these answers, did further research and extrapolated that of a 19.4 million estimate of adult noncitizens, about 620,000 were illegally registered to vote in the 2008 presidential election. Using other measuring tools, they said, the actual number of noncitizen voters could be as low as 38,000 and as high as 2.8 million."
Hold on? Didn't I link to the study showing that was bullshit above?
???
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Speaking of which, in addition to Bannon & Ivanka -
Jared & Spicer are registered to vote in 2 states too...
#drainthesweamp....
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@gollum said in US Politics:
Speaking of which, in addition to Bannon & Ivanka -
Jared & Spicer are registered to vote in 2 states too...
#drainthesweamp....
I really don't care about how many Trumpies are registered in two states. The stupid part is referring to a flawed enrollment system as fraud. Yes, there are technical illegalities (just as there are in most democratic elections) but calling them all 'fraud' is plain stupid.
If there is a genuine problem that illegal voting is causing problems with results then evidence it and fix it by all means, but is has to be non-partisan.
This is more about ego and claims about Trump's presidency being by default due to the popular vote.
The last administration went some way to actually fix the issue with stronger ID requirements in place for any new voters. The obvious next step is to find a way to clean up existing registrations. -
I agree, its in reply to the Pro Trumps too stupid to realize being registerred in 2 states is not illegal & holding it up as an example of fraud. Saying "thats not actually illegal" doesn't work, so saying "the people you adore are actually doing it too" maybe works instead.
Nothing done by Ivanka etc is fraud, just as it wasn't fraud when anyone else did it.
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I may be wrong, but isn't this the study that was being referred to? It was shit science, and shown to be. Using those numbers for prediction is even shitter science.
There has been one study published which has claimed non-citizens have swayed elections, although the dataset used was questioned by the people who actually collected it (i.e., the study used other researchers' data), and they then refuted the findings in a following paper, where they explained that Richman was trying to extrapolate from a very small fraction of respondents to the survey, even these very small amounts of measurement error could cause major problems for his analysis. To get a more valid estimate of non-citizen voting, we can look at the 85 respondents who said that they were non-citizens in both waves of the survey. Since this group answered the question the same way twice, we can be much more confident that they really are non-citizens. Among these 85 respondents, zero were matched to a valid vote record in 2010..
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Thanks @gt12 I had missed that earlier.
It just read to me like an academic exercise from a political studies dept to create debate among students about validity and the use of surveys. Totally valid thing to do if that is correct.
Totally invalid thing to use as support to create a headline.
I don't think anyone is arguing that there isn't 'illegal' voting. It stands to reason that there is, especially given the flawed registration system in the past establishing voters that shouldn't be entitled to vote.
The argument is whether it is correct to claim 'fraud' and create a perception of either organised illegal voting or illegal voting that has a material effect favouring one party over another.
By the way, surely if you aren't claiming some kind of organised illegality then the 'illegals' that have voted are no different to other voters in that they have a choice and any candidate can make their case for that vote?
If all of these 'illegal' votes were somehow able to be identified and tallied I actually suspect that the most likely material effect was in Florida. -
I think it's really clear that non-eligible people can get on the roles, so as pretty much everyone here agrees, the US should try to change the electoral registration/role system. The problem, as has also been discussed, is that such measures affect poorer, older, and 'diverse' populations to a pretty strong degree. I think we've already discussed that and agreed that something needs to be done - but how to do it fairly? I dunno. I think the SJW Dems in the states aren't up for the discussion as much as the Alt-right GOPS.
The things which doesn't have much real evidence so far is that illegals - as a voting bloc - are actually a problem at all. Given that it is a deportable offense to vote if non-eligible (and a reason for green card holders to be kicked out, even if they were incorrectly told that they could vote - see link many posts above) then there needs to be some serious data to show that illegals voted in any substantial way - I'm yet to be convinced of that.
Either way, I'm pleased to be a kiwi. As a basic rule I'm a non-labor voter, but I'm happy to listen to their ideas and agree with them ahead of Nationals. We're lucky that politics in NZ is basically about fiscal policy, law and order, eduction etc. I think we're also lucky to not have a president, but now I'm taking things off topic.
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As for changing the system, there has been progress in this area already, for new voters.
The 'Help America Vote Act' of 2002 (George W) set this in place for new voters. It goes a long way to address tightening registration and providing ways for as many voters as possible to prove ID.Public'Law'Citation:'107'PL'252
! Who is considered to be a first time voter according to HAVA to require ID?
o Registering to vote by mail
o Did not vote in a previous Federal election
Federal elections are elections for President, Vice President, US Congress, US
Senate
Federal elections include general, special, primary and run!off elections for the
offices of President, Vice President, US Congress and US Senate
o Voters who have never voted in their county of residence in a Federal election
! Voter ID Requirements for voter registration by any means
o When citizens register to vote, they must provide ONE of the following:
Current and valid driver’s license
Current and valid State ID
o If an individual has neither a driver’s license nor State ID, the person must provide:
The last 4 digits of his/her Social Security Number
o If an individual does NOT have a Social Security Number
The state must provide a unique voter ID number to complete the individual’s
voter registration
! Voter ID requirements for voter registration for the first time by mail
o Voter has to provide ID prior to a Federal election
o This applies to individuals who registered to vote on or after January 1, 2003
o The individual has to provide ONE of the following when registering to vote by mail:
A copy of current and valid photo ID
A copy of current non!photo ID that shows the individual’s name and address
• Utility bill
• Bank statement
• Government check
• Paycheck
• Government document -
This site shows state by state what ID requirements are.
The problem with both this, and the new voter requirements above is that there is no obligatory check on 'right to vote'. This is actually common with many other countries and isn't simply a US 'issue'
The perceived issue is the number of 'illegals' and the assumption that they will vote as a bloc against any candidate looking to clamp down on their continued residency.
The only real way to deal with the 'problem' is to remove the non-citizens from the country entirely. Easier said than done as, if you can't identify whether someone is a citizen when they go to vote, how do you identify them when going about their daily business?
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Saw this today. Funny.
Executive orders look like strange things to deal with. On one hand, it might help you get around obstacles from the opposition. On the other, they're not worth much if the next president disagrees with them.
There is a summary by President here:
Trump has hit the ground running: 11 in the first week!
US Politics