Le Tour 2018
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@mariner4life said in Le Tour 2018:
Good stage. Pace at the front for the first 100km or so was ridiculous. A protest stops the race. This tour has every thing.
If anyone is planning on having a go, they are starting to run out of time.
Tonight is the night according to the pundits! I think there's an expectation that Froome will try something similar to what he did to win the Giro - ride away from everyone on the first climb.
Not sure it will work this time - because he needs to fragment the chase and everyone will be watching for him.
Might be someone else who makes the big long range attack?
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@chris-b To win a stage like that alone from the start requires not only that you can climb, but that you can descend better than everyone else too. Otherwise all the work on the way up will be destroyed on the way down. I don't see Froome able to do that alone, so he'd need to take a domestique who can descend, and will Sky splinter the team on a long-shot to beat their own man?
Also I reckon Dumoulin will haul in such an attack by sticking to exactly the right pace and not wasting energy on bursts. It's his m.o. and Froome hasn't been able to shake him all race. Thomas will mark Dumoulin, knowing that he sets the best pace. Provided a decent descender goes up behind them, they'd haul in Froome.
Also I'd put money that Alaphillipe and Barguil will attack the first climb. They'll be too knackered to wait till the last and they'll want the early points. Well, Barguil will go, and Alaphillipe will mark him. Others will follow. Too big a group like that and it'll never get away.
So my pick is that everyone will charge out of the gates and it will be a massive sprint from the get-go. Halfway up the second climb it will be leaders only as everyone else won't be able to keep up. The big time gainers will be the best descenders from the second peak.
Roglic to do well. Thomas to beat Dumoulin by 10 seconds and Froome by 30. Bardet and Quintana to fade badly.
Nice thing about precise predictions is that I'm bound to be wrong though. Cycling is like that.
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Is quintana a massive cat or just not that good?
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@mariner4life said in Le Tour 2018:
Is quintana a massive cat or just not that good?
He's bloody frustrating that's for sure. He always looks like he's waiting to pounce but never does.
There's no way that Froome is going to not have a crack. He wants the Giro/TdF double to go with last years TdF/Vuelta.
His problem is that he knows Dumoulin can erase the current deficit between the two on the TT so has to break well clear of him. DuMoulin will just stick to him.I think there is still some hope that Thomas will crack. Sky can't afford to try and engineer a Froome win in case Dumolin comes over the top of him. Classic 'dog with two bones' situation.
Today's stage is an odd one. Grand Prix Grid start so that the leading GC contenders are at the front and their teams will have to jostle forward to reach them and get organised. Also a very short stage apparently designed for attacking.
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Quintana with the stage win. Froome cracked. Looks like Thomas may just have done enough to be wearing yellow into Paris. Although still a lot of riding to go.
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Froome must be due to receive his special midnight package very soon?
Can’t watch this live but have enjoyed watching the highlight package on sky each night. Who would have funked it that something you can do with your kids in the weekend could be so exciting to watch
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@mariner4life said in Le Tour 2018:
Is quintana a massive cat or just not that good?
As usual, my timing was impeccable. Great ride.
Thomas's ride was impressive too, that last attack to leave Doumalan behind was alpha as fuck.
Froome was broken. Giro has taken its toll.
And so one more famous climb, and then the TT. I know the riders are suffering, but why cant the tour be 4 weeks?
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As an aside, i am supplementing my Tour viewing by reading Tyler Hamilton's book again. Best sports book I've ever read.
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@chester-draws Pretty good predictions!
Quintana finally did something that worked. He, Thomas, Dumoulon and Roglic the winners on the day - Froome and Bardet the losers.
So - a flat stage tonight and then one last big mountain stage, before the time trial.
Froome needs a miracle, so it's a good thing they're departing that stage from Lourdes.
I guess the biggest question is how much time Thomas needs to keep Dumoulin at bay in the TT. Froome saying in the papers that the 2 minutes Thomas has is comfortable.
Probably is - though I just had a look at the times at the World Champs last year when Dumoulin killed the field. Of course that wasn't after three weeks of racing. But interesting to note how far down Hamish Bond was after a puncture.
So Thomas can't afford anything much to go wrong - unless he puts more time on Dumoulin in the mountains.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_UCI_Road_World_Championships_–_Men's_time_trial
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Yeah, apart from getting Quintana badly wrong, I was pretty pleased with my guesses. It helps I'm on holiday and watching full coverage of the Tour (and Giro before).
Froome is just suffering from the Tour/Giro double though. Yes good he's good, but it would take Eddie Merckx dominance to do it these days. He'll struggle to hold onto third now -- not that he will much care if he doesn't win.
Dumoulin looks like he might get a Tour/Giro second place. But I think he'll be back next year, and not riding the Giro first. He needs one or two better domestiques though -- he's badly hampered by not having the power of Sky in the hills.
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@scribe said in Le Tour 2018:
@chris-b I wouldn't be surprised if G beats Dumoulin in the TT; he has recent TT form over a v similar course.
Roglic is no TT mug either and could conceivably end up 2nd overall.
Roglic is certainly doing very well. Not quite the edge needed to win but very very good.
This will make things interesting at TLJ as their trial run at having different lead riders at different events looks sound. Now they can pick which course and which support team suits Bennet best and which suits Roglic and target properly.
My understanding, from a GB interview was that he only had a crack at the Giro because they thought at the time everyone else was targeting the TdF/Vuelta again. The Giro line up turned out to be one of the strongest yet.
Both Roglic and GB need better team support on the mountain stages but GB probably needs more help there. -
My theory on today is that the Sky train will control the front and any breakaway will only be from the odd also ran looking to gain a stage win. Hardly any sprinters left and Sagan is still uncertain to start.
The scenario could change if Sagan doesn't start as Kristoff has won this stage before and he could look for a repeat to secure the green jersey lead.
Latour looked completely shot after the climb otherwise I'd peg him for a breakaway crack that Sky would allow.
Astana may challenge Sky and try and position Fugslang up the road but if Sagan starts I would put an Ayrton on Roland having a breakaway crack.