Coronavirus - New Zealand
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This is a good article which shows the incredible harm that will be caused by this recession.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120996640/coronavirus-redundancy-hammers-mental-and-physical-health
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback mental health is going to be a massive issue, if it wasn't already.
I met with one of my clients the day of the lockdown announcement and he was pretty down, I caught up with him last week (Not in person obviously) and was good to hear he was pretty up beat. L3 sees him still only able to operate in a limited capacity though.
I have been lucky that this has not impacted me financially (yet) but plenty of my clients have been and will be affected in the short term and longer.
I have one who bought a multi-million dollar construction business late last year that had been going along strongly, I imagine he will be shitting bricks right now.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback mental health is going to be a massive issue, if it wasn't already.
I met with one of my clients the day of the lockdown announcement and he was pretty down, I caught up with him last week (Not in person obviously) and was good to hear he was pretty up beat. L3 sees him still only able to operate in a limited capacity though.
I have been lucky that this has not impacted me financially (yet) but plenty of my clients have been and will be affected in the short term and longer.
I have one who bought a multi-million dollar construction business late last year that had been going along strongly, I imagine he will be shitting bricks right now.
I remembering you discussing your own personal experience with redundancy. As we are aware it is far more than just numbers on an economic report. These saying that lives should come first don't really understand what lives are IMO
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback i have accepted we are where we are, whether I agree with it or not, as stressing about wrong decisions does no one any good.
My redundancy experience has put us in a position to better deal with it I think, particularly mentally as I didn't deal with the redundancy well (In myself, I didn't hurt anyone, but my wife was worried about my mental wellbeing) but I know there are plenty who won't have the ability to deal with it...they will hurt others, be it physically or mentally, and that will have a knock on effect similar to the passing of a virus.
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 3 lets more people go to work, but it's hardly a huge improvement on level 4 in terms of the cage doors opening.
However, in good news, apparently, not only is our curve flattening, it's exponentially reducing - halving every 5 days. At this rate, we are probably looking at a total of 6-8 weeks at levels 3&4 (so another 2-4 weeks) and then back to level 2.
The rest of the world is rightly envious of that, because they're generally looking at months of the equivalent of level 3+. 4 weeks seems a bit early to be rolling out the civil liberties flag - human rights and civil liberties are critically important to the NZ democracy, but the most important right is the right to life because the rest are not much use to dead people.
And a cratered economy is a damn sight harder on people on the other side.
This is exactly the sort of scare mongering that drove that poll result.
The original justification for this lockdown was not to eliminate the disease but to prevent our health system from being overwhelmed. That has been achieved and over the last four weeks process and capacity has been added to help even more with that.
So let’s move down the levels fast, test appropriately, contain regional reoccurrence, and get back to normalise life.
Even today Cindy was downplaying the huge impact this is having on the economy. “Doing in tough” is not even close to what’s coming IMO.
I think when level 4 started we didn't think it would be as successful as it has been. Now we have a chance to actually eliminate this from New Zealand. The worst thing we could do would be to go down the levels quickly and have it spread. Then you go back to level 4 or have unfettered community transmission and what we have done so far will be for nothing. We have the chance to get back to "normal" in NZ and we should take that if possible.
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@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 3 lets more people go to work, but it's hardly a huge improvement on level 4 in terms of the cage doors opening.
However, in good news, apparently, not only is our curve flattening, it's exponentially reducing - halving every 5 days. At this rate, we are probably looking at a total of 6-8 weeks at levels 3&4 (so another 2-4 weeks) and then back to level 2.
The rest of the world is rightly envious of that, because they're generally looking at months of the equivalent of level 3+. 4 weeks seems a bit early to be rolling out the civil liberties flag - human rights and civil liberties are critically important to the NZ democracy, but the most important right is the right to life because the rest are not much use to dead people.
And a cratered economy is a damn sight harder on people on the other side.
This is exactly the sort of scare mongering that drove that poll result.
The original justification for this lockdown was not to eliminate the disease but to prevent our health system from being overwhelmed. That has been achieved and over the last four weeks process and capacity has been added to help even more with that.
So let’s move down the levels fast, test appropriately, contain regional reoccurrence, and get back to normalise life.
Even today Cindy was downplaying the huge impact this is having on the economy. “Doing in tough” is not even close to what’s coming IMO.
I think when level 4 started we didn't think it would be as successful as it has been. Now we have a chance to actually eliminate this from New Zealand. The worst thing we could do would be to go down the levels quickly and have it spread. Then you go back to level 4 or have unfettered community transmission and what we have done so far will be for nothing. We have the chance to get back to "normal" in NZ and we should take that if possible.
What a giant leap you make to get from our current 10 cases per day to "unfettered community transmission". We are destroying our economy, and the livelihood of thousands of people, for something that has 18 people in hospital.
It's just absurd.
As it stands, we could return to some semblance of "normal life" in NZ right now. We should be at L3 immediately, where there is next to no extra risk given how tight it is.
L2 should be right around the corner if the data continues on this trajectory.
This BS about elimination and effective contact tracing does my head in. Why do we need to have the "gold standard" / 100% success rate for this? We have no drain on our hospitals. This disease doesn't have some 20% fatality rate on the otherwise-healthy. Do we know where every flu patient has been every year, do we get stressed that they may have visited a rest home or a workplace or a school? Are people asked to keep diaries in case they catch it?
We just dont need to eliminate this thing in NZ. Its a totally unnecessary goal, and it's doing significantly more harm than good right now.
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@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It would be borderline criminal to extend this lockdown.
That’s getting a bit carried away.
Criminal?Fucking really?
Level headed poster, right there
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You're ticking a lot of boxes you old fluffybunny, so maybe a double win?
Okay too much...
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@Tim wow, he really is a canny old bastard isn’t he.
“ "The secret is that we keep a sense of balance," Peters said.
"In other words it would be of no value if we save a lot of Covid people in our approach - and yet during it we've got all sorts of things like depression, suicide, breakdowns and a whole lot of other social things having far greater social damage."In the end the only thing that's going to save lives, isn't just medical expertise - but an economy that's capable of providing the utilities to face the crisis."
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Did he just box cabinet into a decision?
Basically making it look like they are only listening to Bloomfield if they vote for an extension? And torpedoing the economy?
I read it as foreshadowing a move to L3
But I could well be just seeing what I want to see...
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more signs the pick'n'mix coalition aint a box of fluffies?
INteresting timing though given he has been on Breakfast a few times in the past week or so, and hasnt walked that path...
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
more signs the pick'n'mix coalition aint a box of fluffies?
INteresting timing though given he has been on Breakfast a few times in the past week or so, and hasnt walked that path...
Or before an election trying to show he’s the grown up in the room?
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 3 lets more people go to work, but it's hardly a huge improvement on level 4 in terms of the cage doors opening.
However, in good news, apparently, not only is our curve flattening, it's exponentially reducing - halving every 5 days. At this rate, we are probably looking at a total of 6-8 weeks at levels 3&4 (so another 2-4 weeks) and then back to level 2.
The rest of the world is rightly envious of that, because they're generally looking at months of the equivalent of level 3+. 4 weeks seems a bit early to be rolling out the civil liberties flag - human rights and civil liberties are critically important to the NZ democracy, but the most important right is the right to life because the rest are not much use to dead people.
And a cratered economy is a damn sight harder on people on the other side.
This is exactly the sort of scare mongering that drove that poll result.
The original justification for this lockdown was not to eliminate the disease but to prevent our health system from being overwhelmed. That has been achieved and over the last four weeks process and capacity has been added to help even more with that.
So let’s move down the levels fast, test appropriately, contain regional reoccurrence, and get back to normalise life.
Even today Cindy was downplaying the huge impact this is having on the economy. “Doing in tough” is not even close to what’s coming IMO.
I think when level 4 started we didn't think it would be as successful as it has been. Now we have a chance to actually eliminate this from New Zealand. The worst thing we could do would be to go down the levels quickly and have it spread. Then you go back to level 4 or have unfettered community transmission and what we have done so far will be for nothing. We have the chance to get back to "normal" in NZ and we should take that if possible.
What a giant leap you make to get from our current 10 cases per day to "unfettered community transmission". We are destroying our economy, and the livelihood of thousands of people, for something that has 18 people in hospital.
It's just absurd.
As it stands, we could return to some semblance of "normal life" in NZ right now. We should be at L3 immediately, where there is next to no extra risk given how tight it is.
L2 should be right around the corner if the data continues on this trajectory.
This BS about elimination and effective contact tracing does my head in. Why do we need to have the "gold standard" / 100% success rate for this? We have no drain on our hospitals. This disease doesn't have some 20% fatality rate on the otherwise-healthy. Do we know where every flu patient has been every year, do we get stressed that they may have visited a rest home or a workplace or a school? Are people asked to keep diaries in case they catch it?
We just dont need to eliminate this thing in NZ. Its a totally unnecessary goal, and it's doing significantly more harm than good right now.
It's not absurd. This started in China from one person getting infected towards the end of last year. In 5 months, it has infected at least two million people all around the world. It is not impossible that 10 cases per day can turn into hundreds and then thousands. It has literally happened like that in other countries around the world.
This is not the flu - we know it is at least six times as deadly. This has killed half as many people in a month in the US compared to what the flu does in a whole year and that it with all the measures that have been put in place.
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 at all costs? There is no balance in these elimination conversations.
No. Not at all costs. However, the cost of going down a level too early will be catastrophic. If we go down to level 3 one week too early, then we might have to spend another 4-5 weeks at level 4. If we go down to level 4 at the right time, we will never have to go back up again.
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@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@hydro11 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Level 3 lets more people go to work, but it's hardly a huge improvement on level 4 in terms of the cage doors opening.
However, in good news, apparently, not only is our curve flattening, it's exponentially reducing - halving every 5 days. At this rate, we are probably looking at a total of 6-8 weeks at levels 3&4 (so another 2-4 weeks) and then back to level 2.
The rest of the world is rightly envious of that, because they're generally looking at months of the equivalent of level 3+. 4 weeks seems a bit early to be rolling out the civil liberties flag - human rights and civil liberties are critically important to the NZ democracy, but the most important right is the right to life because the rest are not much use to dead people.
And a cratered economy is a damn sight harder on people on the other side.
This is exactly the sort of scare mongering that drove that poll result.
The original justification for this lockdown was not to eliminate the disease but to prevent our health system from being overwhelmed. That has been achieved and over the last four weeks process and capacity has been added to help even more with that.
So let’s move down the levels fast, test appropriately, contain regional reoccurrence, and get back to normalise life.
Even today Cindy was downplaying the huge impact this is having on the economy. “Doing in tough” is not even close to what’s coming IMO.
I think when level 4 started we didn't think it would be as successful as it has been. Now we have a chance to actually eliminate this from New Zealand. The worst thing we could do would be to go down the levels quickly and have it spread. Then you go back to level 4 or have unfettered community transmission and what we have done so far will be for nothing. We have the chance to get back to "normal" in NZ and we should take that if possible.
What a giant leap you make to get from our current 10 cases per day to "unfettered community transmission". We are destroying our economy, and the livelihood of thousands of people, for something that has 18 people in hospital.
It's just absurd.
As it stands, we could return to some semblance of "normal life" in NZ right now. We should be at L3 immediately, where there is next to no extra risk given how tight it is.
L2 should be right around the corner if the data continues on this trajectory.
This BS about elimination and effective contact tracing does my head in. Why do we need to have the "gold standard" / 100% success rate for this? We have no drain on our hospitals. This disease doesn't have some 20% fatality rate on the otherwise-healthy. Do we know where every flu patient has been every year, do we get stressed that they may have visited a rest home or a workplace or a school? Are people asked to keep diaries in case they catch it?
We just dont need to eliminate this thing in NZ. Its a totally unnecessary goal, and it's doing significantly more harm than good right now.
It's not absurd. This started in China from one person getting infected towards the end of last year. In 5 months, it has infected at least two million people all around the world. It is not impossible that 10 cases per day can turn into hundreds and then thousands. It has literally happened like that in other countries around the world.
This is not the flu - we know it is at least six times as deadly. This has killed half as many people in a month in the US compared to what the flu does in a whole year and that it with all the measures that have been put in place.
You're missing the point that every country is not the same. NZ had massive advantages. Late to get it, lots of global data, spread out population, not much multi-gen living, island nation etc. What the right response for Italy is/was, is not necessarily what is right for NZ. We had so many advantages, and we are squandering them.
As for the US and the stats, I agree that this isn't just the flu (yet). It appears much more virulent . But I don't believe it's 6x more deadly. We have (unfortunately) seen a lot of deaths, but the fact remains that they have overwhelmingly been those who are elderly and ill . And its certainly come in a rush, and has caused a massive issue for hospital systems that are stretched.
But we have 18 people in hospital in NZ. 18!!! We can care for these people. Yes, those numbers may go up if we discontinue social distancing, but no-one is adcocating that as yet.
I was not against the Lock down initially because we had limited data and lots of unknowns. We now have a lot of data, and proper handle on where NZ is. Continued shutdown of the economy is IMO pointless and massively harmful.