Coronavirus - Overall
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@voodoo It will be interesting to see the GDP figures over the next few quarters and of course how things bounce back or not. The figures in the UK have been and are expected to be brutal. But as @mariner4life says, too early to draw any real conclusions.
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@Catogrande yeah totally it will. Obvs everyone will be hit by tourism activity, and there will be a million other factors to look at (as you said above). It'll be the breakdown that'll be most interesting, domestic consumer spending, performance of small businesses, employment data etc
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It's a pointless exercise while nations are still grappling with the problem. Look at Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, etc. The pattern can change quickly for those that believe that they've dealt with it.
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I have read quite a lot of analysis on the Swedish 'experiment' and yeah there's the usual caveats about still early, I think it is fair to say they fucked up badly. As pointed out there death rate is much higher than their Scandi neighbours but tellingly their economy is faring no better. GDP unemployment etc all in line with Denmark Norway and Finland.
So the strategy was protect the economy and develop herd immunity but they haven't protected the economy, still way off herd immunity and they have suffered much higher fatalities. No matter how you dress it up that's a pretty epic fail.
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@dogmeat where are you getting the updated economic figures from? Government debt levels will be interesting to see, taken in conjunction with GDP, to see where each economy has been propped up and to forecast how long any recovery will take.
This is from a few weeks ago but indictated Sweden was faring much better economically than others.
As for herd immunity, I think that was also a bit far fetched. It was always about protecting the vulnerable while allowing others to make sensible decisions and carry on as normally as was possible.
I don't think it is fair to call it an experiment - many accounts say that the world's governments and scientists all agreed that the "Swedish approach" was the way to go pre-Covid, then panicked when it came time to actually go that route. Hard to verify that, but it wouldn't surprise me.
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@voodoo I honestly can't remember where I read it might have been wehatesweden.com.fi
Seriously it was a couple of weeks ago - read similar reports from a number of sources - presumably all based on the same material. Did quote Swedish govt sources though who said economically they had not done as well as expected. From memory it was because they are so interconnected with the rest of Europe which was shut. Had no one to sell to and also supply chain issues. Plus their own population were staying home as well - too nervous to venture out. So businesses suffered almost as badly as if they were closed.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
As for herd immunity, I think that was also a bit far fetched. It was always about protecting the vulnerable while allowing others to make sensible decisions and carry on as normally as was possible.
Agreed - but the argument always returns to a false binary.
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there seem differing reports on thier economy
TBH I think using GDP as a measure of success/failure is mis-leading, given pretty much the world is battling with the virus, it is going to impact the worlds economy and all those who trade with other nations are going to be affected by downturns all over the show.
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I'm starting to get a bit pessimistic about the whole thing. I am struggling to see how countries start to re-engage with each other, especially Australasia. We will re-enter the Northern winter soon, and things will kick off again.
At first i was hopeful if international travel by July next year. I'm now thinking at best a couple of "bubbles" by then.
I can't see how Governments find an end point, they've been painted in to a corner.
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@mariner4life yeah aint much a picture anyone can paint right now, all we can hope is one or 2 of these vaccine trials work and doses are able to be rolled out pretty quickly.
My mother-in-law had returned to Scotland weeks before we went into lockdown, she usually comes over every other year, so Christmas 2021 is looking sketchy at present.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mariner4life yeah aint much a picture anyone can paint right now, all we can hope is one or 2 of these vaccine trials work and doses are able to be rolled out pretty quickly.
My mother-in-law had returned to Scotland weeks before we went into lockdown, she usually comes over every other year, so Christmas 2021 is looking sketchy at present.
vaccines in a quantity that make a difference are surely at least 18 months away. that is an extraordinarily long time to isolate ourselves
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
accines in a quantity that make a difference are surely at least 18 months away
well I'm erring on the side of miracle, and hoping these trials we heard about earlier this week are the nuts and due to collaboration (or Russians stealing recipe) it can be rolled out worldwide by the new year!
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
accines in a quantity that make a difference are surely at least 18 months away
well I'm erring on the side of miracle, and hoping these trials we heard about earlier this week are the nuts and due to collaboration (or Russians stealing recipe) it can be rolled out worldwide by the new year!
oh, so you are in an Australasian federal government then
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
well I'm erring on the side of miracle
welcome to plan A in my industry.
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@antipodean just gots to have faith brother!
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I'm starting to get a bit pessimistic about the whole thing. I am struggling to see how countries start to re-engage with each other, especially Australasia. We will re-enter the Northern winter soon, and things will kick off again.
At first i was hopeful if international travel by July next year. I'm now thinking at best a couple of "bubbles" by then.
I can't see how Governments find an end point, they've been painted in to a corner.
It would be nice to see or broadcast some " living with covid" ideas and strategies, and open up that possible solution. I'm sure someone somewhere is formulating preliminary scenarios.
That doesn't scare enough people for the media to explore though...
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Not hearing too much recently about the success story that is Sweden. No lockdown, economy keeping going etc. I wonder why? Just looked on the Worldometer site and (accepting that national comparisons are not everything), the deaths per 1M of population is around 558 whereas the other Scandi nations are all much lower. Finland below 90. Looks like the Swedish health expert who came out and said they got it wrong was spot on.
Edit: Norway and Finland below 60.
Sweden said they made a mistake by not protecting the vulnerable. But two options are
- Destroy the economy with a complete lock-down or
- Protect the vulnerable with strict measures plus sensible limited rules to protect everyone else (eg sick must stay at home, temperature readers etc) but let the rest get on with life
Options two seems the better one but sadly we seem to have nanny state leaders in the West now who are incapable of doing a sensible risk cost assessment. Edit And a public that in general support this. Until this changes this crap will continue
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mariner4life yeah aint much a picture anyone can paint right now, all we can hope is one or 2 of these vaccine trials work and doses are able to be rolled out pretty quickly.
My mother-in-law had returned to Scotland weeks before we went into lockdown, she usually comes over every other year, so Christmas 2021 is looking sketchy at present.
You have a lot of faith in vaccines. Yet we've had lots of vaccines (including a flu vaccine) for over 40 years and what happened.
Maybe boosting our in-built immune system may produce much better results. Like using vitamin C etc. Or doing what Trump did. It won't be recommended though because money