Coronavirus - Australia
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@taniwharugby that's a really high number - if it's 5% then eliminate is the only viable strategy. What's the source of that?
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@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life for me personally, im not too worried about catching it....but i would be mortified if i spread it and someone did end up in ICU
I'm in the strange limbo of being incredibly blasé about catching it, and taking considerable steps to ensure no one else gets it. I've been WFH since this all started and only leaving to go shopping or footy training.
My patience is wearing thin.
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@antipodean sounds very similar to us, we've generally only gone out for food or exercise since March, went once for breakfast when things briefly eased...didn't feel right so didn't again, agreed it is getting old but i think thats also why the most recent restrictions didn't change life for us much
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Australia:
The real challenge is that we don't seem to really know the fatality rate, or how this spreads, and how long it's viable on surfaces, and so on.
My understanding is they do know how long the virus lives on different surfaces.
As for fatality rate the testing numbers in each jurisdiction are:
And the confirmed deaths/ cases is 1.52%
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Australia:
The real challenge is that we don't seem to really know the fatality rate, or how this spreads, and how long it's viable on surfaces, and so on.
My understanding is they do know how long the virus lives on different surfaces.
Do you have a link? I'm genuinely interested, as if it is known, it doesn't seem to be communicated widely. Last time around some people advocated for disinfecting your groceries - although apparently there are no known cases of transference like that.
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@nzzp from the ABC reporting:
A widely accepted study in the New England Journal of Medicine published in March is still considered to provide the best evidence of how long coronavirus can last on different types of surfaces.
Under experimental conditions it found:
- The virus could still be detected on stainless steel and plastic after 72 hours
- No viable SARS-CoV-2 could be detected on a cardboard surface after 24 hours
- No viable SARS-CoV-2 could be detected on a copper surface after four hours
There is no current evidence that anyone has become infected by ingesting the virus in, or on, food or drink.
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There are some outliers that bump that world figure
In aus the mortality to cases looks like 1.5%
While the current ICU figures to current cases is about .6%Considering the time and resources thrown at this thing, why don't we have good dats?
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
There are some outliers that bump that world figure
In aus the mortality to cases looks like 1.5%
While the current ICU figures to current cases is about .6%Considering the time and resources thrown at this thing, why don't we have good dats?
Yeah, best to dig down one more level and look at western democracies with decent testing and honest statistics.
Edit. No, don't do that. I just did. It is surprisingly bad.
Not trolling, I genuinely thought I'd see 1% stats.But. Death rates on 'Closed Cases'.
USA - 6% - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
UK - no data
Italy - 15% - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
France - 27% - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
Spain - no data
Sweden - no data
Belgium - 36% - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/belgium/
Australia - 3% https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/
Austria - 3% - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/austria/ -
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
All because 0.085% of the population as of yesterday had a virus and 0.001% had died from it. Over seven months...
I wonder if that is 'died from it' or 'died with it'.
My partners grandmother has just been diagnosed with it. She is 98 years old, with a heart condition, severe dementia and a current UTI. She caught it because she had a violent turn in the nursing home breaking PPE equipment and wandering into a covid patients room. She was taken to hospital initially but after diagnosis returned to the home.
If she dies in the next month I assume that will be chalked up as a covid death..but what if she fights it off and dies in a few months time? Sucks that she likely has to die alone.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life I agree with all of that.
It's clearly a delicate balance. Especially for the travel industry. Things are too conservative at the moment, but there's also a relationship between consumer confidence and the spread of the virus. If borders were open, how many people would be having a weekend in Melbourne?
because, if social media is anything to go by, people equate getting Covid with ending up unconscious in ICU
What are the actual risks? If 50,000 people caught it, how many would end up in ICU?
I am not really worried about catching it, but like Kiwiwomble I'm shit scared of passing it on to my parents/in-laws. That's what would prevent me from going to Melbourne at the moment.
The (at times) asymptomatic nature of this virus is what makes it such a pain in the arse to manage. If I knew I had it then I could take steps to ensure I didn't pass it on, but at my age there's a decent chance I might not know. That ramps the risks right up.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@nzzp from the ABC reporting:
A widely accepted study in the New England Journal of Medicine published in March is still considered to provide the best evidence of how long coronavirus can last on different types of surfaces.
Thanks for that.
That study is from March, which is pretty old in C19 terms. I'm surprised there isn't more out there given how widespread this is. I'm also really interested in what it means in the real world, which was why I kinda liked this quote from your article:
There is still no evidence in any COVID-19 studies that anyone has contracted the virus from a surface alone.The whole study if anyone is interested - it's really really short (700 words and a figure), and freely accessible by the look.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973By now I'd have expected to see the effect of heat and cold on the virus half-life, and indications of the level of virus loading to be worried about. Does this mean that infection is really only a concern if you inhale the virus, or rub your eyes or nose? @tim do you know much about this? That sort of info would also provide confidence about whether businesses really need to 'deep clean' or just leave a workstation for 24 hours (or 72 hours).
anyhoo, hopefully there's lots more information out there we just aren't seeing at the moment
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@nzzp It can only enter your body through nose mouth or eyes so yes is the answer to your question.
I did some research on the half life of the virus as I have (and had during last time) staff making deliveries and collections to / from hospitals. The key is how much viable virus remains not that it can still be detected. At the time I was concerned as we were reading 3-4 days etc which would have made things difficult but talking to virologists at a couple of local hospitals it seems on most surfaces the half life is pretty short and so the amount of viable virus reduces very rapidly. @tim will know better but in general terms it seemed the harder the surface the longer it remains in viable quantities.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Australia:
in general terms it seemed the harder the surface the longer it remains in viable quantities.
is this the wrong forum for a dick joke?
Thanks fella- seemed to be what I'd heard. I am still somewhat surprised how little we seem to know about some of the risks/durations
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Australia:
in general terms it seemed the harder the surface the longer it remains in viable quantities.
is this the wrong forum for a dick joke?
Thanks fella- seemed to be what I'd heard. I am still somewhat surprised how little we seem to know about some of the risks/durations
every thread is perfect for a dick joke
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The NT Chief Minister Michael Gunner is a classic. They’ve managed the virus pretty well and then eased restrictions, opened borders to WA, SA etc but you would think he was the Victorian Premier the way he was talking today. The panic in his voice was remarkable.
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278 in vic today, every little drop helps
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@Kiwiwomble said in Coronavirus - Australia:
278 in vic today, every little drop helps
which is what I say as I open another bottle of wine
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Australia:
but in general terms it seemed the harder the surface the longer it remains in viable quantities.
Which is what makes this somewhat puzzling:
"The virus could still be detected on stainless steel and plastic after 72 hours
No viable SARS-CoV-2 could be detected on a cardboard surface after 24 hours
No viable SARS-CoV-2 could be detected on a copper surface after four hours"Copper is a soft metal but surely harder than cardboard. Does it react somehow?