Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Not sure whether anyone on this thread is still interested in the numbers, but here they are:
It's a worry that three people are in ICU in a critical condition.
My mate reckons the deaths come some time after initial infection so we may see some fatalities from the South Auckland cluster in a few weeks. The most concerning one is the guy who is at North Shore. 30 years old or thereabouts. So much for being a yearly flu and a disease of the elderly
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Not sure whether anyone on this thread is still interested in the numbers, but here they are:
It's a worry that three people are in ICU in a critical condition.
My mate reckons the deaths come some time after initial infection so we may see some fatalities from the South Auckland cluster in a few weeks. The most concerning one is the guy who is at North Shore. 30 years old or thereabouts. So much for being a yearly flu and a disease of the elderly
Who has claimed its a disease of the elderly? (The young and healthy can get it but are likely to recover.)
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@Winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Not sure whether anyone on this thread is still interested in the numbers, but here they are:
It's a worry that three people are in ICU in a critical condition.
My mate reckons the deaths come some time after initial infection so we may see some fatalities from the South Auckland cluster in a few weeks. The most concerning one is the guy who is at North Shore. 30 years old or thereabouts. So much for being a yearly flu and a disease of the elderly
Who has claimed its a disease of the elderly? (The young and healthy can get it but are likely to recover)
Lots of people believe it to be true, all over the world
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Tim still relying on a vaccine to be found to map out our future
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Tim still relying on a vaccine to be found to map out our future
This virus is a no winner. Was talking to my sister in Melbourne this morning, says things are fucking grim. Floods of job losses, friend of hers says psych problems are going up, bad juju all around.
32% contraction in GDP for the USA between April and June
20% in the UK
Less than 3% predicted for Oz and NZ
Whichever strategy you employ there will be pain, and the years of milk and honey have come to a blinding halt
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Auckland Council Chief Economist has today published his latest quarterly review
Few quick(ish) take outs
- Despite thousands of job losses, the economic hit to Auckland and New Zealand from Wave One was smaller than many anticipated.
- At Level 4 lockdown, an estimated 40-48% of work could not be done, and 33-40% of economic activity could not be generated. That was followed by more than two weeks at Level 3 (estimated 20% reduction in economic activity) and almost four weeks of Level 2 (estimated 10% reduction in economic activity).
- Auckland lost more than 20,000 jobs. The unemployment rate probably rose closer to 6% than to the official estimate, which fell in June. Wage subsidies stood between workers and an even more precipitous plunge in employment. With wage subsidies set to come off in September – the right decision although one that would be tough for many –unemployment was set to nudge higher.
- Growth in jobseekers slowed sharply at Level 2.
- GDP fell much less than we anticipated in the March quarter, where a third of economic activity was not possible for a week.
- House prices hit a new seasonally-adjusted peak in June and then July and volumes returned to normal levels.
- Retail trade bounced strongly.
- Air New Zealand and then JetStar added domestic capacity much faster than they themselves appeared to anticipate (where else was anyone who still had a job going to go on holiday?).
- Resource and building consent applications returned to normal levels months ahead of expectations.
- Business confidence improved while remaining at weak levels.
- Our own estimates of unemployment, which we initially thought could rise above 10%, had to be revised down sharply. We were anticipating a peak of 7% before Wave Two, still much worse than before the pandemic, but a lot better than we’d expected.
- Notwithstanding the suspicious headline unemployment figure of 4%, looking under the hood reveals a less rosy picture. The underutilisation rate rose to 10.7% from 9.9% from the same time last year
- Regardless, job losses don’t appear to be as bad as originally anticipated, in large part buffered by the wage subsidy scheme
- Additionally, hours worked fell 10% nationally and the country’s labour force participation rate fell to 69.7 (the lowest since 2016).
- We estimate around $60-$75 million in GDP is lost each day that we are in Level 3. And each day in lockdown means that when we do open up, we do so from a lower level – with higher unemployment and lower GDP as a starting point.
- The Auckland median house price is defying all odds, retaining its strength. Prices in July set a new record in seasonally-adjusted terms. Interestingly, the number of homes sold in July was up an incredible 30% from July 2019, and 23% compared to June 2019. The recent strength means we have revised our price expectations. We still expect them to come off their highs, but by less than 5% as wage subsidies end and mortgage holidays wrap up, now extended to March 2021.
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Hi, been a many year stalker because of the great rugby detail I can get while living in the US. Played Prem rugby in Wellington - Rep rugby for Poverty Bay (means I was an average player).
The only reason I'm speaking up now is that it concerns me that lack of information pits us Kiwis against each other, I call home every week and am hoping to be home soon. Live in California, and have been in lockdown coming up to 6 months.
I see a lot of anxiety back home which is understandable, once you understand the impact of the virus (we have over 600k confirmed) I hope that you'd ask the same question I'm asking, the virus will not cease to exist. I'm hopeful the current outbreak in NZ can be contained, I pray that you don't need to go through this. What next? the virus will never be contained, vaccination will never be 100% effective. Has the flu back home been eradicated because of the lockdowns?
Here are the stats of the age group impact of this virus against the flu based on age groups - my mum is now in her 80s, I don't want her to die! even she's against stopping us from living, eradication is impossible, we need to ask those that are locking our country down and destroying people's lives (not their lives, their income), how will we get out of this? Stats of Covid for the US rated against the flu below (I'm in one of the higher risk groups, I know the risk and take it every day I walk outside).
Kia Kaha
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@ngatiporoukiwi welcome! The important stuff... when did you play in Welly? We may have crossed paths...
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So the mother of the whanau that ran from quarantine in Hamilton got some jail time...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12360207
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of the 12 new ones, 7 were at the border
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder the bar is set soooo much lower in other countries like the UK and US. We are doing so much better than them should not be justification for letting big screw ups slide here
But whose bar should we be set against? I don't think any countries have not suffered massive screw ups, we just have a western centred press. (Also not saying the screw ups shouldn't happen, they shouldn't and the govt and Ministries who F-up are fair game to cop the flack for it, but from the outside looking in you'd think NZ was the only country to screw up going by the melt down in this place :face_with_stuck-out_tongue_winking_eye: ).
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@Godder sorry I find that article almost as spurious as what Winger posts.
The fact that he is a Professor is irrelevant. He has no more knowledge of the corona virus than any other interested Kiwi. A lecturer in Political Science indeed. No wonder he comes across as an apologist for the government. I have never come across an academic pol scientist in NZ who wasn't left leaning.
The whole tone of the opinion piece is how dare you criticise the govt. Look at wat a great job they've done while suggesting it is highly probably that the Akl cluster originated through some contaminated frozen meat. Where the reality is, based on everything I have read, that is highly improbable that this will be the vector. Yes it can survive frozen in a lab but the only other documented case of this form of transmission is from China.
The maintenance workers surface contamination is already incredibly rare. It stretches credulity to imagine we could have been hit by lightening twice. Far more likely IMO that someone fucked up at Akl Airport. For which the Govt should be held accountable.
You could just as easily argue that the govt has been given an incredibly soft ride by both the general population and the press.
edit Thanks @booboo
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confirmed Auckland will still move out of L3 at midnight tonight...yet there are still some wanting L3 to be extended.
The issue with those calling for an extension, really have nothing to lose if it gets pushed out, thier jobs and livelihoods dont really seem to be at risk.
As most keep saying, we need a better plan on how we can go about our lives WITH Covid as relying on a vaccine is not really a plan
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
confirmed Auckland will still move out of L3 at midnight tonight...yet there are still some wanting L3 to be extended.
The issue with those calling for an extension, really have nothing to lose if it gets pushed out, thier jobs and livelihoods dont really seem to be at risk.
As most keep saying, we need a better plan on how we can go about our lives WITH Covid as relying on a vaccine is not really a plan
Business, life as we know it can't be compared to 2019 and before. Precautions are one thing and I'm okay with that. But they do need to strike a balance and be wary of heaping more financial pain (and all the other fallout that goes with it) going forward. Epidemiologists may be correct with their modelling. But the government or the universities don't turn their wages off when they go into lockdown