-
@canefan said in US Politics:
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@Godder Perhaps. I'm not discounting any of that.
I just can't believe these numbers. They reek of bullshit. Sorry.
I'm waiting for your rationale as to why. Is it fraud?
No, you are waiting for me to some thing ludicrous so you can laugh at my silliness and put me in the tin foil hat brigade. Thats what you are waiting for.
You're not going to get it, as I'm not arguing any single thing social.
I believe mail in voters will swing towards Biden
I believe Trump has really dug his own grave regarding these claims due to his own behaviour
I believe MSM is 100% against Trump and is unlikely to bother to really investigate any of these claims with analysis.Finally, I believe the sheer scale and direction of these swings means that, in my opinion, Trumps claims deserve investigation. I've outlined why using Pennsylvania as an example.
@canefan said in US Politics:
Then I'm not sure what you are trying to say. You can't believe the swing? Trump led early because they count on the day votes first, and he encouraged his people to vote on the day because he's not afraid of covid19. Urban Democrats appeared to be more fearful of covid19 and large numbers voted by mail, those votes are counted last
Close. I find the sheer scale of the swing extremely suspicious.
Again, probably some truth in your reasoning, although that does seem to buy a bit into the Democrats are smarter than Republicans narrative. In isolation, a narrative which I completely disregard.
-
@MajorRage I don't see you as one of the tin foil gang mate. If there is any question it won't be the media who investigate, it will be the authorities, as it should be. I just think you are looking for something that may not be there
-
@MajorRage so it’s perfectly acceptable and understandable for trump to get these big leads to start with early but not understandable or acceptable for Biden to even up late game? Even with the explanations about mail in votes and urban areas
The only way trunk got the leads I the first place was with the same kinds of factors just the other way around
-
@Kiwiwomble No! Nothing wrong with it.
However, the scale of it is SO large, I think it deserves deeper investigation.
-
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@MajorRage so it’s perfectly acceptable and understandable for trump to get these big leads to start with early but not understandable or acceptable for Biden to even up late game? Even with the explanations about mail in votes and urban areas
The only way trunk got the leads I the first place was with the same kinds of factors just the other way around
If they'd counted the mail in votes first, Biden would have been ahead early only for Trump to roar back into it. Would we be having this conversation if that was the case?
-
@canefan said in US Politics:
@MajorRage I don't see you as one of the tin foil gang mate.
Disappointed, honestly ...
If there is any question it won't be the media who investigate, it will be the authorities, as it should be. I just think you are looking for something that may not be there
If this was opposite, do you think the media would investigate it? I do.
-
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@MajorRage so it’s perfectly acceptable and understandable for trump to get these big leads to start with early but not understandable or acceptable for Biden to even up late game? Even with the explanations about mail in votes and urban areas
The only way trunk got the leads I the first place was with the same kinds of factors just the other way around
If they'd counted the mail in votes first, Biden would have been ahead early only for Trump to roar back into it. Would we be having this conversation if that was the case?
Absolutely, without a doubt. As I've said, my political positions are completely aside here.
-
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@MajorRage I don't see you as one of the tin foil gang mate.
Disappointed, honestly ...
If there is any question it won't be the media who investigate, it will be the authorities, as it should be. I just think you are looking for something that may not be there
If this was opposite, do you think the media would investigate it? I do.
Maybe? Who knows? Who cares though, the media do not judge if wrongdoing has occurred, the authorities do
-
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
Jesus Nick, I know you are and 99% of this board are desperate to see Trump out,
Fuck yes. I think it is hilarious that he's turned into a giant bitch-baby, quite frankly.
-
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble No! Nothing wrong with it.
However, the scale of it is SO large, I think it deserves deeper investigation.
Why don't you question the early leads that Trump had, given the polls?
-
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@MajorRage so it’s perfectly acceptable and understandable for trump to get these big leads to start with early but not understandable or acceptable for Biden to even up late game? Even with the explanations about mail in votes and urban areas
The only way trunk got the leads I the first place was with the same kinds of factors just the other way around
If they'd counted the mail in votes first, Biden would have been ahead early only for Trump to roar back into it. Would we be having this conversation if that was the case?
Absolutely, without a doubt. As I've said, my political positions are completely aside here.
I just think it is down to the vagaries of the electoral process and the high numbers of votes with the covid19 backdrop. I can't believe that there has been some major swindle here, I mean the Dems could barely get organised enough to put up a living breathing candidate...
-
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble No! Nothing wrong with it.
However, the scale of it is SO large, I think it deserves deeper investigation.
Have any gone form a big lead for trump to a big win for Biden? Havent they all just got close with slight leads here and there?
If anything I though Biden looked comfortable in Ohio early but that swung back
-
AP do projections based on analysis and reports from officials, and everyone trusts them.
Can they accurately predict total voter numbers ahead of time?
Do they list percentage won of that total voter number or are they using what has been counted?Because I'm looking at the AP data fed via Google, and they're using all their percentages against counted votes only.
So at any point where a candidate had a 10% lead (counted) in a state with 64% counted, the second place would "only" need 59% of the remaining vote to overtake them on a simple (1 vote) majority.
Hardly a stretch. At other counted totals:
50% counted - second place only needs 55%
60% counted - 57.5%
70% counted - 61.7%
80% counted - 70%
85% counted - 78.34%Now if Biden is pulling 80% of mail ballots in some counties (as reported above) then he could effectively be losing by 10% split on counted votes and still come back.
-
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble No! Nothing wrong with it.
However, the scale of it is SO large, I think it deserves deeper investigation.
Have any gone form a big lead for trump to a big win for Biden? Havent they all just got close with slight leads here and there?
If anything I though Biden looked comfortable in Ohio early but that swung back
The other question is around whether all states are using the same procedure to report polling stations and mail ballots - I believe they're all a little quirky in how their electoral commissions run things.
-
There is plenty of room for mischief to have occurred in the postal votes.
Lots of stuff on internet out there, probably fake news.
But not beyond wit of man to assume that democrats may have taken a few short cuts here and there.
This may not be over until UK comes out of lockdown!
-
@NTA said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble No! Nothing wrong with it.
However, the scale of it is SO large, I think it deserves deeper investigation.
Have any gone form a big lead for trump to a big win for Biden? Havent they all just got close with slight leads here and there?
If anything I though Biden looked comfortable in Ohio early but that swung back
The other question is around whether all states are using the same procedure to report polling stations and mail ballots - I believe they're all a little quirky in how their electoral commissions run things.
They all do things differently don't they? State loyalties come first so standardisation is basically impossible
-
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@MajorRage said in US Politics:
@barbarian said in US Politics:
@MajorRage But if they counted the postal votes first, the reverse would be true: Biden would have a lead of 7-800k and then Trump would work that down. It's what happened in Florida (on a slightly smaller scale) but nobody is questioning that...
Rubbish. I'm questioning everything. I'm not closing my mind to there being no substance is Trump's claims.
Trump lead by 10% with 64% of the vote counted. So he was 37/27 up, which means a 57% pro Trump. For Biden to get this back, he needs to be at least 23/13 of the other 36% ... that's 64%, or a change of over 20% in voting patterns.
That's unfathomable.
Nothing is impossible in this pandemic year. Search your mind. The obvious answer is probably the right answer
To requote myself above, the most obvious answer is the one the MSM have been pushing, the one that everybody said would happen, right?
I'm not suspicious that postal votes are more in favour of Biden, not at all. I'm extremely suspicious of the sheer scale of this. It's absolutely insane, and is undoubtedly worthy of deeper dive.
American experts have been writing very recently about the growing no accelerating political gap between city and country so no, it is not that weird to understand.
I assume you have travelled through both the coasts and the rust belt and midwest?
Not the same thing at all. -
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
Can you imagine if the republicans dropped him next time and he ran as an independent
have you noticed some are already splintering?
And fox news really infuriated the Trump camp.
Watch the Murdoch rats jump platforms if they sniff impending collapse.. -
@nostrildamus don jr not helping that, made a couple of jabs about how the trump team have done all this them selves etc
US Politics