NPC Div 1 - Final rounds



  • TEAM PLAYED POINTS STILL TO PLAY
    Canterbury 8 35 Harbour (h) Counties (a)
    Taranaki 8 27 Wellington (a) Auckland (h)
    Auckland 8 27 Tasman (h) Taranaki (a)
    Counties 8 25 Otago (a) Canterbury (h)
    Tasman 7 22 Auckland (a) Harbour (a) Southland (h)
    Waikato 8 20 Hawkes Bay (h) Wellington (a)
    Hawke's Bay 8 14 Waikato (a) BOP (h)

    Semi Finals

    Some big games left amongst the the contenders (home team first):
    Auckland vs Tasman
    Counties vs Canterbury
    Taranaki vs Auckland

    Auckland with the hardest run in
    Tasman can make up the most ground
    Waikato need a bit of luck with other results


    Relegation

    Waikato vs Hawkes Bay has become an important match after the Taniwha result. Waikato could get passed by HB in the final round if they drop this one

    Technically Tasman could still drop but they just need a couple of bonus points to be safe.



  • Auckland-Taranaki should probably be added to the big games among the contenders (I expect that's a typo).

    Auckland has suddenly found some ominous form and I'm highly pessimistic about Tasman's (who have managed to play well only in 30 minute bursts) chances against them. I think we're going to get humped.

    Given the short turnarounds we have it wouldn't be entirely stupid to name a weakened team against them (i.e. rest Marty Banks) and target 10 points from the Harbour/Southland combo. That would give us 32 points, which is my target and I reckon will be enough to make the top 4. Counties would have to beat Canterbury to get past that and Taranaki would need at least a point from Auckland. Failures to rack up 4 try bonus points has been a bit of a killer - though on the plus side we've won a raft of close games.

    In fact, Canterbury might struggle in the play-offs against Auckland on current form. I hope Hansen isn't going to make a farce of all that has gone before by releasing a slew of ABs to play in the play-offs.

    Hadn't really considered that Hawkes Bay might still save themselves - but, if they beat Waikato then I'd rather play BoP than Wellington.

    And..to round out my comments on NPC ....congratulations to Northland! 🙂



  • @Chris-B. said in NPC Div 1 - Final rounds:

    Auckland-Taranaki should probably be added to the big games among the contenders (I expect that's a typo)

    Yeah it was a typo. Thanks



  • @Duluth said in NPC Div 1 - Final rounds:

    Auckland with the hardest run in

    Actually looking at this again... the Taranaki run in is just as hard as Aucklands. Wellington is in good form now



  • The losses to Waikato and Counties could cost us. Hopefully that Otago performance will kickstart our season.



  • Team Points Last Game Points Difference
    Canterbury 40 Counties (away) +190
    Taranaki 32 Auckland (home) +76
    Counties Man 29 Canterbury (home) +38
    Auckland 28 Taranaki (away) +36
    Tasman 27 NH(away) and Southland (home) +16
    Waikato 25 Wellington (away) + 6
    Hawke's Bay 14 BOP (home) -130

    Canterbury will finish first
    Hawkes Bay will be relegated

    Matches involving the semi final contenders

    Date Match Venue
    12-Oct North Harbour v Tasman Albany
    13-Oct Taranaki v Auckland New Plymouth
    15-Oct Counties Manukau v Canterbury Pukekohe
    15-Oct Wellington v Waikato Wellington
    16-Oct Tasman v Southland Nelson

    You'd expect Tasman to beat North Harbour and Southland
    Waikato fans will be happy that Wellingtons form has dropped off so much



  • I'll be cheering for Naki over Auckland by the look of things.



  • @Crucial

    and Wellington over Waikato (assuming Counties doesn't beat Canterbury)



  • @Duluth said in NPC Div 1 - Final rounds:

    @Crucial

    and Wellington over Waikato (assuming Counties doesn't beat Canterbury)

    Touch wood, I can't see Waikato getting 5 pts off Welly and if they get 4 we should still beat them on count back

    What are the count back rules again? I saw someone post them a while back.



  • @Crucial

    I think its points difference? Couldn't find it on the NPC website though



  • Found it....

    the winner of the round robin match between the two provinces
    highest overall points difference
    highest number of tries scored
    highest number of points scored
    a coin toss

    CM beat both Waikato and Auck (although very unlikely a tie break will be needed against Auck). Lost to Tasman (again unlikely tie break required)

    CMs first option is to win, then just to pick up Bps, then to hope for Naki to beat Auck and Auck to get a max of 1 point.

    I see last place going to CM or Auck. Waikato an outsider.

    If CM take fourth place they will play Canterbury again



  • @Crucial said in NPC Div 1 - Final rounds:

    @Duluth said in NPC Div 1 - Final rounds:

    @Crucial

    and Wellington over Waikato (assuming Counties doesn't beat Canterbury)

    Touch wood, I can't see Waikato getting 5 pts off Welly and if they get 4 we should still beat them on count back

    What are the count back rules again? I saw someone post them a while back.

    Posted on the ITM Cup website last year:

    Tie break rules:
    In case two teams are tied on competition points after round robin, here's what happens:
    i) The winner of the round robin match between the two sides has the higher position
    ii) If they didn't play a round robin match, then it goes to points difference  
    
    If three (or more) teams are tied on competition points, here's what happens:
    i) The team that has earned the most competition points against the other teams has the higher position
    ii) If there's still a tie, it goes to points difference
    
    Should teams still be tied after looking at previous results and points difference, then here's how the tie gets broken:
    i) The team with the most tries across the competition has the higher position
    ii) If tries scored across the competition is the same,  then the team with the most points goes ahead
     
    And if that doesn't work: it comes down to the toss of a coin!
    

    http://mitre10cup.co.nz/News/28264/itm-cup-tie-breaks-and-cheer-guide



  • @Duluth said in NPC Div 1 - Final rounds:

    You'd expect Tasman to beat North Harbour and Southland
    Waikato fans will be happy that Wellingtons form has dropped off so much

    Wouldn't want to take anything for granted in this competition, but I'm pretty hopeful of Tasman winning those two games (Harbour has been a problem team for us in the past). Getting a bonus point from both is really the key - if we pick up 10 points then we get a home semi.



  • @Chris-B. said in NPC Div 1 - Final rounds:

    @Duluth said in NPC Div 1 - Final rounds:

    You'd expect Tasman to beat North Harbour and Southland
    Waikato fans will be happy that Wellingtons form has dropped off so much

    Wouldn't want to take anything for granted in this competition, but I'm pretty hopeful of Tasman winning those two games (Harbour has been a problem team for us in the past). Getting a bonus point from both is really the key - if we pick up 10 points then we get a home semi.

    Well you were right about Harbour. No 10 points now



  • Just realised CM have a sniff at at home semi now.
    Slightly less unlikely than before.



  • This Auckland/Naki game has the hallmarks of being a real spoiler. Lots of tries, close game.

    Come on Naki!



  • Naki get their fourth try and one more point on the table.



  • Now Auckland get their fourth. 1 more point on the table and the lead in the match.

    Fucken Naki. That loss at the death to them in round 5 is coming back at us like a bad kebab.



  • Yes. On the death stroke. (always had faith in you Naki 😉 )

    Apologies if these last posts should have been on a match thread but I couldn't find it and the outcome of this match had a big bearing on standings.



  • Auckland out of the playoffs.... hahahahahaha



  • @SammyC If you guys lose to Counties which I'm sure you will for good measure.



  • @SammyC said in NPC Div 1 - Final rounds:

    Auckland out of the playoffs.... hahahahahaha

    Not yet, although you wouldn't bet on Tasman losing to Southland.



  • Yeah.. Auckland isn't out of the playoffs yet..
    Tbh, I was hoping they would miss out.. so we can get a new coach



  • @mimic Lol even if we do go through we're only gonna lose to Canterbury anyway. Having said that it was a much better effort tonight. Scrum was much better this week, unfortunately we didn't have a clue on how to stop the rolling maul which was all Taranaki really had.



  • At present the three way tie rule is in effect.
    I think from points earned against each other the order is Tasman, CM, Aucland

    So I make it currently

    Cant 40 (CM to play) - 1st and will stay first
    Taranaki 37 - 2nd and will stay second
    Tasman 29 - Southland to play
    CM 29 (Cant to play) - 4th but can end up 3rd if they pick up more than Tasman
    Auck 29 - gone



  • Actually just realised that if Waikato get 5 points against Wellington they get into this shitfight as well with 4 teams on 29 which could change the picture as it is points gained against the others not win/loss record.

    Need to work that one out



  • @Crucial Auckland go to 30 after that match as we got 2 bonus points.



  • OK so in the unlike event of Tasman, CM, Waikato and Auckland all finishing on 29 the order (table points scored against the other three teams) is

    Tasman (13)
    CM (11)
    Waikato (7)
    Auck (4)

    The CM v Canterbury game is not quite a dead rubber but with both team likely to face each other (Tasman have the easier last game), how much do they show in this one?

    My guess is that whoever gets out to a lead early will take the game as the other team then brings in the reserves for game time..

    CM will probably keep Manu, Elliot and Tony Pulu on to help with match fitness though.



  • After all of that I hadn't factored in the close loss BP for Auckland, they are actually on 30 so all my reckoning was a waste of time

    It now stands

    Cant 40 (CM to play) - 1st and will stay first
    Taranaki 37 - 2nd and will stay second
    Auck 30 - 3rd but need either of CM or Tasman to collect 0 points in their final games
    Tasman 29 - Southland to play
    CM 29 (Cant to play) - 5th but can end up 3rd if they pick up more than Tasman

    Auckland lose in any tie break so they are out if CM and Tasman pick up a minimum of 1 pt each.



  • So Waikato's win over Welly (fuck they have been far worse than they should be, almost as bad as Auckland) have taken them into provisional fourth place waiting on the Tasman v Southland game and Auckland are gone burger

    Tasman only need one point to get into the semis and five points to go to third place.

    Not sure who they would prefer to play out of Naki and Canterbury but they may get to make a choice during the game.

    I think CM would prefer Naki

    If Tasman get through I can see any of the semi finalists making the finals which is good from a competition viewpoint.



  • Pretty sure Tasman would prefer the Naki, since we beat them in round robin, but got thumped by Canterbury. They just starved us of the ball and we'd need Pari Pari Parkinson to be a lineout revelation to stop that happening again. Unfortunately, home advantage seems to be pretty important in this competition.

    Are you sure Tasman actually goes through if there's a three way tie? If we tie with either Waikato or Auckland we go through because we've beaten both, but in a three way tie the first tiebreaker I saw earlier was points difference - which would be Auckland - which would be ludicrous (they don't go through if tied with either Waikato or Tasman, but do if tied with both), but not beyond the realms of possibility.

    Surely we can beat Southland! 🙂



  • In a three way tie it's table points gained against the other tied teams.



  • @Crucial said in NPC Div 1 - Final rounds:

    In a three way tie it's table points gained against the other tied teams.

    I'll take that...in case I need to! 🙂


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