Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels



  • So by this time tomorrow we'll know if we're still in the comp or if we've reverted to1991.

    (Does anyone remember the disbelief of 91 that we could actually lose ?)

    How are we feeling about our chances?

    Earlier in the week the thought of a loss did not even occur. But the odd prediction of an Irish win gives me pause for thought.

    I'm wavering between supremely confident / completely unworried (All Black arrogant), and rocking in the corner sucking my thumb nervous.

    Currently for me me probability of us getting through is about 70:30. So 30% chance of failure. Which is far too high.

    The really big trouble is the consequence of losing ... definitely "catastophic".

    So if you're doing a risk assessment:
    Probability = possible
    Consequence = catastrophic
    Resultant rIsk = "High"

    Where's y'all at? We's confident? We's worried?

    And also you Johnny Foreigner (Irish types and other Quartet finalists) supporting non All Black teams. Where's you at in your QF?



  • For the tournament:

    Should be the favourites, but give them only a 20-25% chance of doing it. I said at the start of the tournament they can win like the Boks in 2007, they need a bit to go their way and the draw open up.

    An Ireland QF means three tough games in three weeks and there is no evidence this side can string together three good performances against top flight opposition and the Lions series and last years EOYT show they probably can't.

    No one else has shown they can either BTW, thus a pretty open tournament.

    For the quarter final:

    Haven't looked forward to a game more than this one since the 2011 semi-final. The history between these two teams (+ Lions) in the past cycle really sets it up well.

    I back the ABs to win this one. If we can score two tries in the first 60 the game should be over and poised for a blowout. If the Irish defence can hold and get into the last quarter with even a one point lead I think we will lose.

    High stakes - can't wait!

    @booboo said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:

    So by this time tomorrow we'll know if we're still in the comp or if we've reverted to1991.

    (Does anyone remember the disbelief of 91 that we could actually lose ?)

    If we lose it's 1999. I did float a theory after the EOYT last year that Hansen ran the risk of being John Hart over twice as long that was summarily blasted by all. But it's hard to see the narrative be anything but Hansen won 2015 on the backs of McCaw/Carter etc, but once they all retired it was three losses to Ireland, can't win a Lions' series, QF exit, got desperate with selections in a RWC year...

    Looking forward there will be a huge question mark over the next coach, captain... even key positions like 7, 10, 15...



  • Frankly, I'm bricking it.

    IMO, Ireland represent a much larger threat than the 2007 French and, given their recent history success against us, a Wallabies-2003-esque "ambush" is on the cards.

    Additionally, I just think there are a few "signs" (some of which are familiar from previous World Cup failures) that tomorrow might not be our day:

    1. weather - will suit them more than us;
    2. best Irish team ever playing for there legacy (effectively, their World Cup Final);
    3. the referee - he's been favouring the team with the ball big time in this tournament, allowing them to hold on longer than usual and clean-out from the side; again, this will suit their ball-retention-based game far more than it will suit our turnover / counter-attack / broken play strengths;
    4. all of the parallels with 2007 that I've already written about on the match thread;
    5. further to point 1 above, Ireland have to win a knockout match one day and they've never been better equipped to do so IMO.

    Call me negative, but my view is that this is a very finely balanced match - Ireland are just not a great match-up for us, style-wise. If I had to put a figure on it, I'd guess we're about 60/40 to win, which is far too tight for my liking.



  • @rotated said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:

    For the tournament:

    Should be the favourites, but give them only a 20-25% chance of doing it. I said at the start of the tournament they can win like the Boks in 2007, they need a bit to go their way and the draw open up.

    An Ireland QF means three tough games in three weeks and there is no evidence this side can string together three good performances against top flight opposition and the Lions series and last years EOYT show they probably can't.

    No one else has shown they can either BTW, thus a pretty open tournament.

    For the quarter final:

    Haven't looked forward to a game more than this one since the 2011 semi-final. The history between these two teams (+ Lions) in the past cycle really sets it up well.

    I back the ABs to win this one. If we can score two tries in the first 60 the game should be over and poised for a blowout. If the Irish defence can hold and get into the last quarter with even a one point lead I think we will lose.

    High stakes - can't wait!

    This is true, but it's why the Boks are firming up as strong favourites, in my eyes. Even if Japan push them, it won't be the kind of physically draining QF that all other winners will have faced (there's obviously potential here for England and Wales to have blowouts against their respective opposition - although i think this is unlikely.)



  • @junior said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:

    IMO, Ireland represent a much larger threat than the 2007 French and, given their recent history success against us, a Wallabies-2003-esque "ambush" is on the cards.

    Nah, they will mentally turn up and be 100% focused. Siegementality all week. Just listened to the McCaw 2011 Captain's Cup episode and he mentioned how Hong Kong and then the Brisbane loss to Australia leading into the RWC played a big role in getting them up for that game and taking Australia deadly seriously (moreso than Aus probably deserved to be taken).

    France in 1999 and 2007 and Australia in 2003 all got 50 put on them by the ABs in the lead up to the tournament. Very easy to fall into the trap of being over confident when that has happened. After Dublin and Chicago... different story.



  • @rotated said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:

    @junior said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:

    IMO, Ireland represent a much larger threat than the 2007 French and, given their recent history success against us, a Wallabies-2003-esque "ambush" is on the cards.

    Nah, they will mentally turn up and be 100% focused. Siegementality all week. Just listened to the McCaw 2011 Captain's Cup episode and he mentioned how Hong Kong and then the Brisbane loss to Australia leading into the RWC played a big role in getting them up for that game and taking Australia deadly seriously (moreso than Aus probably deserved to be taken).

    France in 1999 and 2007 and Australia in 2003 all got 50 put on them by the ABs in the lead up to the tournament. Very easy to fall into the trap of being over confident when that has happened. After Dublin and Chicago... different story.

    I don't doubt we'll be taking them seriously, exactly because of the recent history. I just honestly think they might play better than us, whether we are fully up for it or not. I've said elsewhere that the loss last November was as thorough a beating as I've seen an AB team take since 2009 - we played as well as we could and still lost!



  • I've been quite focused on how much we got killed by them last year. So, like the sucker for punishment I am, I had a look online at some of the highlights and it's given me cause for ... optimism.

    Reality is that we have to mix up our backline plays. And I would suggest a huge amount more kicking. If you watch the match, Ireland just stood flat and absorbed. Same as what the Boks did in their match again us. We simply didn't kick enough, get them running backwards.

    I'm not suggesting chips from inside our 22 or anything silly like that (although it would be naive of me to suggest we won't see that at some point), but we simply didn't create space. Simliar to first half vs Boks this year in Welly & England last year at twix.

    If we play a reserved gameplan, we will give ourselves a much higher chance of losing. We've got to chance our arm. The Irish forwards are top notch. And their halves are also strong. But if we can get them going backwards or questioning their defensive lines, then anything could happen.

    70/30 victory for me tomorrow which is still far too tight. But I'm not as nervous as I once was.



  • @junior said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:

    Frankly, I'm bricking it.
    IMO, Ireland represent a much larger threat than the 2007 French and, given their recent history success against us, a Wallabies-2003-esque "ambush" is on the cards.

    Def. agree with this.

    OTOH, they are facing the AB's who are fully aware of 2007, not overconfident and, having lost twice to the Paddies, motivated to win.

    Ireland's game was worked out in the last 6N's and my fear is they have something up their sleeves. That said, the AB's were pretty awesome in Bled 2 and the pool game against SA when they needed to be.



  • Might be famous last words, but I think we win:

    1. The Irish got hammered vs England in the first match of the 6N. I thought it was just being caught out cold first up and that Schmidt would rejig things, and they would be OK. But they were wiped off the park by Wales. And then destroyed again by England (albeit in a warmup game). They looked good vs Scotland and Samoa because those teams were inept.

    2. Maybe Schmidt has been hiding something away...otherwise I see the same tactics and team that have been found wanting in 2019

    It just comes down to whether we hold our nerve...and I think we will. If we get an early lead of more than 10 points, I don't see Ireland coming back.

    We see tomorrow if I'm right or wrong.



  • I think we may also have some tricks in the bag that we will oull out. Shag has said that Schmidt is known for his anaysis, and that the ABs may have been able to throw him off the scent maybe by using some moves, putting them away, and pulling out a whole new set (in short uncorking 1 x powder keg). I think we need to start well, if we can, I'd love us to blow Ireland off th park by flooding as many channels as we can with men who won't lie down and keep getting back up for more. We need Ireland to feel like they are facing 100 men not 15. Get into their psyche and live there. Make them eat dirt the green buggers!



  • Yeah - this is a much better prepared AB team than has played against Ireland in the last wee while - with quite a few different styles of play than they'll have seen. They'll have to play out of their skin to beat the ABs, so if we lose then bloody well done.

    alt text

    Gaan dry powder.



  • Irish win last year was the worst thing that could have happened for them in terms.s of this match.

    If it was just Chicago it could easily have been written off as being unprepared, playing people out of position, even a bit of arrogance...but them winning again in Dublin, and the manner with which they won meant Hansen and Co were on notice there was a new force in World Rugby and they did things differently so we needed to find a way to beat the way they play, particularly the disciplined rush defence (although the signs were there post-Lions things were needing to change)

    We have been average at best in a number of games for a while, but as some analysts have shown, we have been playing differently, with mixed success...but things are slowly falling into place.

    Injuries have impacted the coaches decisions around who plays and where, which has also hindered their ability to bed in the new style as they would like without showing their hand too early.

    I think if we click tonight, we will win and win well, but if we take 15 or 20 to get into the game tonight and pressure starts to mount we could be in trouble.



  • @taniwharugby said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:

    I think if we click tonight, we will win and win well, but if we take 15 or 20 to get into the game tonight and pressure starts to mount we could be in trouble.

    losing the warmup against Italy was significant. there's nothing like real game time, and missing the chance to play was a downer for us. We could be rusty going in.

    I think we'll get some points (20+), and can't see Ireland getting there... but ya just never know in knockouts. Cards could decide it 😞



  • @nzzp said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:

    losing the warmup against Italy

    C'mon, it was a draw 🤣



  • @taniwharugby well played sir, well played



  • Great days these ones.

    Walking around all excited and buoyed by the thought of that 10 minutes of the bok game and knowing that 20 minutes of that will "get her done". The joy you know you're going to get when we push the lead beyond two converted tries

    Then a dreadful thought sidles into the mind and you know what it feels like to lose these ones. The abject darkness of the weeks and months to follow. That bitter feeling as the tournament progresses without you and you try to convince yourself that watching the other team's games ensures you are a true rugby fan. But the disbelief and darkness make you sigh a hundred times a day.

    AB's by 14

    Have a great day everyone!

    Savour it



  • @Siam wasnt it after the Dublin match Hansen spoke of the stone under the beach towel...I expect losing this will be a boulder on the beach towel...while it shouldn't, losing tonight will affect Hansens 'legacy'



  • @taniwharugby said in Risk Analysis / Confidence Levels:

    @Siam wasnt it after the Dublin match Hansen spoke of the stone under the beach towel...I expect losing this will be a boulder on the beach towel...while it shouldn't, losing tonight will affect Hansens 'legacy'

    We might look back on the loss in Dublin as one of the best things to happen to us if we go on to beat Ireland and ultimately win the cup. We have real motivation tonight and the game plan is coming to fruition. Meanwhile they have not been great for a while. I hope its payback time 2015 QF styles



  • To stay on topic for once - I am both nervous and quietly confident. A card could screw either team and ruin the whole match. Fortunately Nigel is pretty level headed so it is up to the players to behave.

    Completely different styles of play too, with Japan showing that we might be on the right track to beating Ireland along with the team that Hansen has selected.

    I am going to buy more beer now as I don't think that 6 doz is going to get me through the rest of the day until the match. Getting quite tense already.



  • I give it 60ish to 40ish in our favour.
    Favouritism is more from Ireland's 2019 decline rather than any rise from us, but there are at least some encouraging signs of adjustment.

    As for consequence, nothing much imo. Coach and captain at the end of their careers anyway. Although a quarter final exit is much more stinging than a semi or final exit.

    This will be a hard cup to win.


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