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@JC @MajorRage Chur.
I'll buy some union jack's to hang out the upstairs windows instead.
Probably best. My advice - that I’m well aware you didn’t ask for- is don’t play the FX markets unless you have deep pockets and are prepared to write off your stake. Pros have access to analysis that includes modelling of the other players in the market (what Keynes called “guess[ing] better than the crowd how the crowd will behave.”) And yet ultimately they’re still guessing so they hedge their positions, which is pretty hard for the likes of us to do in an ad hoc way. But if you’re not analysing and hedging you’re just gambling, so put it on one of @Hooroo ’s horses instead
True. But the best trading Hedge Funds on the planet will generally get 52-55% success rate with trades. So reality is they don’t know shit either!!!
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@JC @MajorRage Chur.
I'll buy some union jack's to hang out the upstairs windows instead.
Probably best. My advice - that I’m well aware you didn’t ask for- is don’t play the FX markets unless you have deep pockets and are prepared to write off your stake. Pros have access to analysis that includes modelling of the other players in the market (what Keynes called “guess[ing] better than the crowd how the crowd will behave.”) And yet ultimately they’re still guessing so they hedge their positions, which is pretty hard for the likes of us to do in an ad hoc way. But if you’re not analysing and hedging you’re just gambling, so put it on one of @Hooroo ’s horses instead
Polly grey is 10 from 14 win or place so it sounds as though you are right. 2019/2020 has her 5/5 win/place so that is really good
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@taniwharugby said in Brexit:
@Hooroo when is she running again?
All going to plan, 22nd of Feb is her first start. Horses are great at not sticking to plans though
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@JC @MajorRage Chur.
I'll buy some union jack's to hang out the upstairs windows instead.
Probably best. My advice - that I’m well aware you didn’t ask for- is don’t play the FX markets unless you have deep pockets and are prepared to write off your stake. Pros have access to analysis that includes modelling of the other players in the market (what Keynes called “guess[ing] better than the crowd how the crowd will behave.”) And yet ultimately they’re still guessing so they hedge their positions, which is pretty hard for the likes of us to do in an ad hoc way. But if you’re not analysing and hedging you’re just gambling, so put it on one of @Hooroo ’s horses instead
Polly grey is 10 from 14 win or place so it sounds as though you are right. 2019/2020 has her 5/5 win/place so that is really good
Noted. Investment opportunity right there!
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A colleague of my wife's at a major UK law firm posted on fb on Brexit day:
"I don't mean to sound harsh, but if you are over 65 and voted for Brexit and are today attending a leaving party, I hope you die".
UK people have lost their mind over this.
Culture wars.
The "Liberal Metropolitan Elite" v "Populism". The former can't understand why the latter vote the way they do and call them xenophobic, thick, easily duped and racist (Brexit) - or "deplorables" for voting for Trump.
As the "Liberal Metropolitan Elite" pay for the majority of public services and their approach held sway for decades, they probably feel aggrieved at their loss of influence and perceived lack of gratitude from "the populists"
Gonna get worse before it gets better, I reckon.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
Reports today that Barnier has told opposition MPs that EU would be receptive to one to two year transition extension.
You would think that this sort of thing would be a pragmatic decision to make wouldn't you?
It depends on how much UK would have to pay into the colossal budgets EU have set aside to help other nations after they were so pitiful to Italy & Spain.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
Reports today that Barnier has told opposition MPs that EU would be receptive to one to two year transition extension.
You would think that this sort of thing would be a pragmatic decision to make wouldn't you?
It depends on how much UK would have to pay into the colossal budgets EU have set aside to help other nations after they were so pitiful to Italy & Spain.
Reading between the lines, there is a huge bill attached to extension.
But I have no doubt a deal will be done by 31 December. But the special of the day rather than the gourmet menu.
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I'm surprised by the EU's approach to the talks.
They have taken a position on a trade deal much different from before and seem to be trying to push for an extension rather than an outline of a deal.
Perhaps when Coronavirus has eased more sensible EU leaders might force Barnier & co. to become more willing to negotiate.
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A colleague of my wife's at a major UK law firm posted on fb on Brexit day:
"I don't mean to sound harsh, but if you are over 65 and voted for Brexit and are today attending a leaving party, I hope you die".
UK people have lost their mind over this.
The UK legal profession are 95% remain, and anyone whom they meet and who confesses to be leave is treated like a retard.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
I'm surprised by the EU's approach to the talks.
They have taken a position on a trade deal much different from before and seem to be trying to push for an extension rather than an outline of a deal.
Perhaps when Coronavirus has eased more sensible EU leaders might force Barnier & co. to become more willing to negotiate.
My hunch is some at EU thought that with help from UK Civil Service UK could be bounced into extension. Hence a maximalist approach to hold back cards for a two year negotiation.
Some reports that Barnier's prepared to row back on fishing to try and get some movement from UK.
My read is that UK will deal on level playing field non-regression, but wants state aid carved out.
Perhaps biggest hurdle is agreeing a dispute resolution arrangement. Any EU standards would have to be arbitrated by ECJ. But if generalist approach then some form of independent arbitration could work, a la Canadian trade agreement.
UK will have to throw some fishbones to get the services access/accreditations it craves.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
I'm surprised by the EU's approach to the talks.
They have taken a position on a trade deal much different from before and seem to be trying to push for an extension rather than an outline of a deal.
Perhaps when Coronavirus has eased more sensible EU leaders might force Barnier & co. to become more willing to negotiate.
My hunch is some at EU thought that with help from UK Civil Service UK could be bounced into extension. Hence a maximilist approach to hold back cards for a two year negotiation.
Some reports that Barnier's prepared to row back on fishing to try and get some movement from UK.
My read is that UK will deal on level playing field non-regression, but wants state aid carved out.
Perhaps biggest hurdle is agreeing a dispute resolution arrangement. Any EU standards would have to be arbitrated by ECJ. But if generalist approach then some form of independent arbitration could work, a la Canadian trade agreement.
UK will have to throw some fishbones to get the services access/accreditations it craves.
Sense the UK is going to play hard-ball on fishing. They are happy to have an annually-agreed quota but may agree a 2-3 transition period quota. Lots of talk in these parts of a really big increase in fisheries protection manpower & vessels.
On trade, I'm interested in the way the current govt uses Oz as a model. So I think we'll either have a Canada-style deal or maybe no deal at all.
Frankly, I don't think the EU gets it. Perhaps when Covid calms down and it's clear the UK really is walking away in June, they might get serious
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - UK:
I'm surprised by the EU's approach to the talks.
They have taken a position on a trade deal much different from before and seem to be trying to push for an extension rather than an outline of a deal.
Perhaps when Coronavirus has eased more sensible EU leaders might force Barnier & co. to become more willing to negotiate.
My hunch is some at EU thought that with help from UK Civil Service UK could be bounced into extension. Hence a maximalist approach to hold back cards for a two year negotiation.
Some reports that Barnier's prepared to row back on fishing to try and get some movement from UK.
My read is that UK will deal on level playing field non-regression, but wants state aid carved out.
Perhaps biggest hurdle is agreeing a dispute resolution arrangement. Any EU standards would have to be arbitrated by ECJ. But if generalist approach then some form of independent arbitration could work, a la Canadian trade agreement.
UK will have to throw some fishbones to get the services access/accreditations it craves.
Sense the UK is going to play hard-ball on fishing. They are happy to have an annually-agreed quota but may agree a 2-3 transition period quota. Lots of talk in these parts of a really big increase in fisheries protection manpower & vessels.
On trade, I'm interested in the way the current govt uses Oz as a model. So I think we'll either have a Canada-style deal or maybe no deal at all.
Frankly, I don't think the EU gets it. Perhaps when Covid calms down and it's clear the UK really is walking away in June, they might get serious
UK won't accept a 20 year fishing deal, such as represented by EU current mandate.
But UK fishing less than 1% GDP. Of UK caught fish 80% exported to EU, etc.. And of fish eaten in UK 80% imported from EU etc..
So UK will throw EU bones on this. It is a huge issue for the fishing eight EU countries, and ought to buy a decent amount of goodwill for other areas.
Canada style deal will work for EU on goods, but UK will have to accept no regression on the level of standards in place at end of transition.
I don't believe there are any good services precedents. Massive area for UK and it's seeking passporting and accreditations as is. In my view that will have a significant cost. Trickiest area may be that UK will want equivalence rather than adhering to EU standards, which would need to be adjudicated by ECJ.
So some progress until 30 June, but when transition not extended then it will get serious real quick.
Brexit