Australian Federal Election
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="antipodean" data-cid="593854" data-time="1467600026">
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<p>I don't understand this line of thinking. How else do you analyse and discount policy without putting it on the table?</p>
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<p>As it stands, they've already got a document; the Henry Review.</p>
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<p>He didn't "nick it". The party room voted overwhelmingly to get rid of Abbott.</p>
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<p>Hey antipodean, I agree. The Henry Review is very near and dear to my heart.</p>
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<p>Of course that is how policies should be made, by putting everything on the table, good and bad, and then entering into a robust discussion and ultimately, forming what would hopefully be good policy. I used that as an example as it was the manner in which it was seen to be removing things from the table... The removal was seen to be more of a knee-jerk reaction based on negative press rather than a well considered and thought out process of elimination.</p>
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<p>A perfect example of this is the thought bubble of giving the states the power to tax and generate revenue and how quickly that formed, then the negative press and then the bubble burst, never to be seen again.</p>
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<p>In a previous discussion, I voiced the opinion that in terms of tax reform, the blue print is there well and truly in the Henry Tax review of which I am a big supporter.</p> -
<p>This idiot has two Senate seats now:</p>
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<p>Boiling this whole saga down to one or two issues is a bit silly, really. It's very complex from macro issues (such as tax reform) down to local ones (such as Peter Hendy's lack of work ethic in Eden-Monaro, or Andrew Nikolic's unwillingness to engage with local churches and charities in Bass).</p>
<p> </p>
<p>So here are the two main issues that it all boiled down to:</p>
<p> </p>
<p>1. Malcolm's lack of authenticity. Partly his fault, partly his Party's fault. Malcolm Turnbull had been in the public eye for long enough that when he took the Prime Ministership, most people knew what he stood for. He was the classic wet Liberal, with a strong economic background and a social agenda befitting his urban electorate. But when he compromised his beliefs and squibbed on the tough economic decisions, he appeared spineless, and the electorate began to doubt who he was and what he stood for. The Libs needed to let Malcolm be Malcolm. </p>
<p> </p>
<p>2. A lack of a catch-cry from the Liberals. The 'jobs and growth' message was too weak to rally the troops. There wasn't a signature promise or policy that could cut through, they had nothing to define their approach over the next few years other than to 'stick to the plan'. They promised a moderate company tax cut, but not a huge amount more. Whilst this was a safe, economically responsible approach, they needed to at least make it seem a lot more exciting.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>There is no clear path forward here. Malcolm will be held hostage by his party, which dooms him to failure. </p> -
<p>I see a lot of analysis showing the conservative vote wandered off to other places, leaving the Coalition adrift as it went looking for the votes of centrists. I had advocated for years as a political strategy that you could ignore them while they didn't have an alternative to vote for. Now they've got heaps and the preference flows appear to have damaged the Liberals.</p>
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<p>There's also talk of Bernardi and Co. leaving the Liberals to form their own party and I'd be fucking thrilled if they did.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="mariner4life" data-cid="593846" data-time="1467598025">
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<p>That's an obviously biased view of the whole thing there ronin, i think trying to pin this result on one issue, or one turning point, is a bit disingenuous. </p>
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<p>My opinion is that the Libs swept in at the last election based on the ALP being a disfunctional mess, and a shrewd scare campaign by Abbott. The Libs were then hamstrung a bit by their own rhetoric, and made themselves immediately unpopular by taking a slasher to the budget, which they didn't need to do given the reality of the economic situation. This was followed by a raft of other unpopular decisions, while the ALP did nothing but sit back and watch the polls turn around.</p>
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<p>Repeated poor polling, and some clever appearances by Turnbull (remember him on Q&A being all cool and shit?) turned the tide inside the party, and he nicked the leadership (and immediately cost his party the moral high ground when it came to internal fighting and stability). There was an immediate reversal in the polls, as people expected Turnbull the leader to be the same as Turnbull the cabinet minister. Meanwhile the ALP's "do nothing, say nothing" strategy was immediately swept away. </p>
<p> </p>
<p>What appears to have happened is that there has been enough lead time for all that goodwill to completely erode, the ALP ran an effective campaign, while the Libs have dithered on almost everything for a while now, and here we are. Add in the protest votes away from the major parties, and we have a deadlock. </p>
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<p>To be honest, i think the result reflects the discussion we had last week about both parties being so similar. Because neither stands for much tangibly, it becomes a flat out c heads or tails, and so here we are, at about half and half. I don't think a new election would change much to be honest. Until the parties differentiate themselves with real visions for the future of Australia, i can't see there being much in any future election.</p>
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<p>Of course, this is all just the opinion of a very casual observer. </p>
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<p>M4L, your opinion and mine are actually aligned and your analysis of the Rudd and Abbott era's and the election is spot on. Turnbull and Shorten were two slices of white bread with very little seperating them.</p>
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<p>If you read what I wrote, at no point did I say there was a single issue or a single turning point that resulted in this election outcome for Turnbull. Very clearly in anything like this there are always a large number of issues which are compounded and any number of turning points and these things will always be a result of many factors.</p>
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<p>I just used two examples which aligned closely to when the polls started turning and Malcolm started to lose his shine.</p>
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<p>But I firmly believe that one of the most important issues and factors in his downslide was the fact that he was hamstrung right from the moment he took the job as PM and that he was unable to put forward more progressive policy due to the undue influence of the hard right.</p>
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<p>I do believe that he would have done better in the polls by delivering on the promise of a <span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);font-family:Arial, sans-serif;">moderate, centrist and more inclusive government which is what he promised on the night he was crowned PM.</span></p> -
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<p><strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:arial, sans-serif;">Such a patronising and condescending prick but one so ill-informed and bereft of any real analysis.</span></span></strong></p>
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<p><span style="font-size:10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:arial, sans-serif;">I’ll remind you that you were the one that first starting crapping on about concentration camps and the Gestapo. You want a logical and well-informed debate then stop writing shit like that. </span></span></p>
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<p><strong><span style="font-size:10.5pt;"><span style="font-family:arial, sans-serif;">You ignore anything reasonable and focus on things which are pure hypotheticals such as "</span></span></strong><span style="font-size:medium;"><strong><span style="font-family:helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);">Where in the electorate would he have found the voters to allow him to win in a canter?"</span></span></strong></span></p>
<p><span style="font-size:medium;"><strong><span style="font-family:helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);">You fail to read and comprehend a single idea that might appose your own tiny little narrow view of the world. And the only person who has said anything about Turnbull winning in a canter is you.</span></span></strong></span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-family:helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);"><span style="font-size:medium;">How about you put up or shut the fuck up... As Nick asked "<em><span style="font-family:helvetica, sans-serif;">Maybe you can tell me which seats Malcolm lost with his lack of leadership, and why? Frame your answer in the context of the Liberals only having that many seats to start with because Rudd was an even bigger flying fuckup than Tony Abbott.</span></em></span>"</span></span></strong></p>
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<p><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);">Are you unable to read? Nick made the initial claim about Turnbull winning in a canter. So, he made the claim, I asked him to back it up. He hasn’t and neither have you. I didn’t notice that comment from Nick, but I’ll simply make reference to the seats that were lost that should have been safe holds. Now I’m still waiting to find out where these easily won seats were. </span></span></span></p>
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<p><strong><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:'times new roman';">Nick and I have put forward the point that where Malcolm has suffered is losing the "middle, swinging vote" of the electorate.</span></span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:'times new roman';">As an example, If he had introduced policies that better aligned with his own views and that of the majority of the electorte to make advances on issues <em>such</em> as "Mariage Equality" and "Global Warming". This would have helped to keep some of the good will and sentiment that was clearly there in spades when he first took over the mantle from Abbott.</span></span></strong></p>
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<p><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:'times new roman';"> “Middle swinging vote� That’s a good one. You honestly think those are decisive, vote-winning issues? Well yes they may be in the inner city, but they’ll go Greens anyway. You think your average family out in the burbs struggling with work and the mortgage lose sleep over gay marriage and climate change? </span></span></p>
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<p><strong><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:'times new roman';">And projecting... well then I was in very good company as the polling very clearly showed that there was a huge upswell of posititive sentiment when Abbott was deposed and Malcolm came into power. And why do you think that was?</span></span></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-size:medium;"><strong><span style="font-family:'times new roman';">It was because the greater populous was sick and tired of the negative politics and rampant right wing ideology from Abbott and his right-tard cronies which was very clearly demonstrated in the hugely unpopular 2014 budget. The greater populous very clearly wanted </span></strong></span><strong><span style="font-family:arial, sans-serif;"><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);">a government that was more moderate, centrist and more inclusive. That is not me saything this but the great majority of political commentators.</span></span></strong></p>
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<p><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:arial, sans-serif;"><span style="color:rgb(40,40,40);">Abbott became a joke, a parody. He had a tin-ear and refused to change. He acknowledges this himself. In terms of him being some kind of rightwing zealot, that’s just you projecting again. PPL for example was most definitely not a rightwing policy. Balancing the budget is hardly an extreme position either and is apparently advocated by both parties. People were just embarrassed by him not because they were terrified of him and his rightwing marauders. </span></span></span></p>
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<p><strong><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:'times new roman';">Now both these, Marriage Equality and Global Warming, may not be big issues in QLD but (and putting aside yet another attempt at being condescending) it is NOT just the latte set who find both of these issues to be very important! Polling shows very clearly that the majority of Australians support Marriage Equality and again, a majority want something done to address global warming and not just token BS that both sides seem to be offering.</span></span></strong></p>
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<p><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:'times new roman';">Yes people will answer that they want something done when asked about these issues, but they are not hot-button election issues that will ultimately decide an election. The carbon tax for instance was hugely unpopular. I refer to my comment above the average family and what their actual concerns are. </span></span></p>
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<p><strong><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:'times new roman';">But he was NOT able to make such changes to important policies because of the backroom deals made with his parties hard right! He had no room to move as he was fenced in by those on the far right of his party.</span></span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:'times new roman';">Other areas affected by hard right influence can be found on education and health. It's clear that on both these key topics, they were beated by Labour (and sure, that did include the whole libs to privatise medicare bs). I also think the whole policy to give tax breaks to the big multinationals was also stupid and again, Labour beat them up on this and gained a lot of mileage from it.</span></span></strong></p>
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<p><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:'times new roman';">The LNP always get smashed by Labour on health and education. The unions fanatically support them and, as mentioned above, IMHO the media doesn’t do enough to call them out on their scare campaigns. I’m not sure where the hard right messed up health and education apart from trying to work out how to pay for it all down the track. Extremist bastards.</span></span></p>
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<p><strong><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:'times new roman';">And this is why the big swing to the minors and independants who better represent the varying views held by parts of the population - look at the resurgence of someone who should really be dead and buried but instead we now have to put up with 3 or more years of that stupid, ignorant, nasally voiced red headed moron!</span></span></strong></p>
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<p><span style="font-size:medium;"><span style="font-family:'times new roman';">Maybe people would have been less likely to vote for the minor and micro parties if the large parties had shown competent and clear leadership and policies? Just a thought.</span></span></p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="barbarian" data-cid="593869" data-time="1467601268">
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<p>Boiling this whole saga down to one or two issues is a bit silly, really. It's very complex from macro issues (such as tax reform) down to local ones (such as Peter Hendy's lack of work ethic in Eden-Monaro, or Andrew Nikolic's unwillingness to engage with local churches and charities in Bass).</p>
<p> </p>
<p>So here are the two main issues that it all boiled down to:</p>
<p> </p>
<p>1. Malcolm's lack of authenticity. Partly his fault, partly his Party's fault. Malcolm Turnbull had been in the public eye for long enough that when he took the Prime Ministership, most people knew what he stood for. He was the classic wet Liberal, with a strong economic background and a social agenda befitting his urban electorate. But when he compromised his beliefs and squibbed on the tough economic decisions, he appeared spineless, and the electorate began to doubt who he was and what he stood for. The Libs needed to let Malcolm be Malcolm. </p>
<p> </p>
<p>2. A lack of a catch-cry from the Liberals. The 'jobs and growth' message was too weak to rally the troops. There wasn't a signature promise or policy that could cut through, they had nothing to define their approach over the next few years other than to 'stick to the plan'. They promised a moderate company tax cut, but not a huge amount more. Whilst this was a safe, economically responsible approach, they needed to at least make it seem a lot more exciting.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>There is no clear path forward here. Malcolm will be held hostage by his party, which dooms him to failure. </p>
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<p>Turnbull's biggest strength when he came in was that he gave the appearance of someone who was in control and who knew his stuff. He was a self-made multi-millionaire who was an economics wiz and someone who could be trusted to steer the ship. But that carefully crafted persona deteriorated rapidly when he actually had to make decisions, particularly about the economy. He came across as indecisive and clueless. Not exactly qualities you want in the guy whose supposed strength is the economy. In less tougher times, he might have got away with focusing on social issues like gay marriage and climate change. But not in this economic climate. What was needed was strong leadership and he failed to provide that. His party can't be absolved of all blame. I've heard them be referred to as the Howard B team. But the performance of a party's leader is hugely important in Australian politics and Turnbull just wasn't up to the job.</p> -
<p>I have a theory about the senate, and how the cards have fallen. The reforms to above the line voting have played a huge part IMO.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Previously, all you had to do was put a ‘1’ above the line, which was what 95% of people did. They found their party of choice, and gave them the nod. For most, that was one of the bigger parties- Liberals/Labor/Greens/Democrats, even Palmer United or Family First.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>You looked for that one party, and didn’t really have to pay much attention to the rest of the ballot. That occasionally led to crazy results, with preferences going every which way and landing with the Muirs, Madigans and Leijonhelms of the world.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Now you have to rank at least 6 candidates. So, like me, most people found their one or two parties, and then maybe an obvious third (like Xenophon). And then they scanned the ballot to find another party worth a vote… and found slim fucking pickings. It’s a cast of crazies, or single-issue parties you have no idea about.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>So instead of giving a vote to a random party (the Secular Party, or the Science Party etc), I think people opted for known substances. Which is why a large amount of votes went to Pauline Hanson, Derryn Hinch and Jackie Lambie. They weren’t necessarily the best options on the ballot, but people at least knew what they stood for. And when people were looking for their 4<sup>th</sup>, 5<sup>th</sup> and 6<sup>th</sup> party I think that counted for a lot.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>So instead of getting a cast of randoms, we get these guys. On the downside, some of them are a bit out there. But at least we know who they are and what they stand for, unlike Muir/Lambie/Madigan etc, who were complete wildcards.</p> -
<p>that fact that people know what Hanson stands for, and <em>still</em> vote for her and her cast of cretins is fucking worse in my opinion. At least the Asians are safe from her red-headed wrath this time. </p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="mariner4life" data-cid="593840" data-time="1467595578">
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<p>Did you guys hear about the text message made to look like it was from Medicare? Anyone get it? What do you reckon? </p>
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<p>Feds are looking into it apparently.</p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="mariner4life" data-cid="593897" data-time="1467609756">
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<p>that fact that people know what Hanson stands for, and <em>still</em> vote for her and her cast of cretins is fucking worse in my opinion. At least the Asians are safe from her red-headed wrath this time. </p>
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<p>Bigger fish to fry... in her fish shop.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>But in good news, I've heard she wants to repeal the Racial Discrimination Act. So rangas are back in the fucking sights!</p>
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<p><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.betootaadvocate.com/uncategorized/even-pop-thinks-some-of-the-shit-pauline-hanson-says-is-pretty-crook/'>http://www.betootaadvocate.com/uncategorized/even-pop-thinks-some-of-the-shit-pauline-hanson-says-is-pretty-crook/</a></p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote"><br><span style="font-size:18px;"><strong>Even Pop Thinks Some Of The Shit Pauline Hanson Says Is Pretty Crook</strong></span>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span style="font-weight:700;">CLANCY OVERELL | </span><em>E</em><em>ditor</em> | <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://betootaadvocate.com/'>Contact</a></p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">The extended family of Paul Abernathy (77) say that they were stunned to hear their casually racist grandfather condemn the popular Queensland senate candidate Pauline Hanson this morning.</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span style="text-align:center;">"Jeez you know things are pretty messy when there is someone ‘too racist’ for our Pop†says grandson Michael (27).</span></p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">“He’s usually the first to crack uncomfortable racist jokes and ask telemarketers where they are calling from… But I think he’s genuinely concerned about Hanson getting into the senate,â€</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">In the wake of a chaotic election that has likely seen chiko roll frying expert Pauline Hanson securing at least one senate seat for her One Nation party in Queensland, the outspoken patriot said her first move would be to ban Muslim refugees and halal certification.</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">Over breakfast this morning, Paul Abernathy’s usually jovial, grandfatherly manner was replaced by a much more sombre tone.</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">“This wild bitch has the potential to truly fuck our country without a kiss†he said, ignoring the presence of his startled 11-year-old granddaughter, Poppy. :lol:</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">“They’re saying that there might be three of her mob in the senate. Are you fucking kidding me?â€</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">While he strongly detests extremists, Mr Abernathy says Hanson’s populist, undereducated core politics are ignoring the fact that Australia has progressed from the 1950s.</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">“Mate, who the fuck is she to ban halal certification? Who the fuck would we sell our beef to? Iceland?â€</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">“Muslims aren’t going to buy that shit if it isn’t halal, and we need them to buy that shit,â€</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">“How is she getting away with this shit? Leave the poor brown pricks alone I say. All they wanna do is set up a corner store and avoid getting shotâ€</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"><span style="font-weight:700;">Mr Abernathy says that return of Pauline Hanson is a perfect example of Australia playing into the hands of terrorists.</span></p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">“Remember when she was banging on about Asians in the 90s? How many Asians do you honestly reckon she had meet in Ipswichâ€</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">“… Then everyone started worrying about terrorism so she’s focused on these Mussies… She needs that mouth wired shut,â€</p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);"> </p>
<p style="font-family:arial;font-size:15px;color:rgb(0,0,0);">“If there ends up being three One Nation candidates in the senate, well I’m sorry but ISIS has already won.â€</p>
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<p>Christ I remember it so well when Hanson first burst onto the scene. Back then she didn't care about Muslims. It was the Asian and aboriginals she hated.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>But what I remember best is two conversations with people from the groups that were the focus of her wrath. The first was with this aboriginal guy I played pool with at a pub in the city. A few jokes were made about some woman who looked like Hanson and I then asked him what he thought about the her. I was expecting a rant, but he just shrugged his shoulders and said that it was a free country and she was entitled to her point of view. He said he thought she was full of shit and eventually people would tire of her crap. Talk about on the money!</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The second was with my best mate at the time (and still my best mate), a Chinese Malaysian. He simply clocked her for the uneducated bogan trash she was and basically refused to acknowledge her existence. That seemed to be the response of most of the Asian community. Hanson's spawn probably work for Asians these days.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The point is that the best response to these types of idiots is just to ignore them and let them rant away. Trying to shut them down or throwing shit at them doesn't help and will only give them sympathy and a form of legitimacy. Unfortunately I suspect the press is going to give her just as much oxygen as they did 20 years ago.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="NTA" data-cid="593901" data-time="1467610885">
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<p> But in good news, I've heard she wants to repeal the Racial Discrimination Act. So rangas are back in the fucking sights!</p>
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<p>Isn't that an own goal??</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Hooroo" data-cid="594014" data-time="1467671027">
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<p>Isn't she a Ranga?</p>
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<p>fucking whooooosh</p> -
<p>Yep - I get it ;)</p>
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<p><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/list/?selector=indoubt&sort=latest'>http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/list/?selector=indoubt&sort=latest</a></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Looks like a couple of seats have been decided in the last 24 hours, so at the moment we have:</p>
<p> </p>
<p>68 Coalition</p>
<p>67 ALP</p>
<p>5 other - 1 Green, 2 independents, 1 NXT, 1 Katter</p>
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<p>The 10 seats left in doubt look like going:</p>
<p> </p>
<p>5 x ALP</p>
<p>4 x L/NP</p>
<p>1 x NXT</p>
<p> </p>
<p>So we'll have both majors with 72 each, and a crossbench of 6 including Kooky Katter, the 2 Angry South Australians, and old hand Wilke, along with Cathy McGowan in the appropriately named "Indi" electorate.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Bandt will probably just go for beers with DiNatale and think about what they can have a shot at.</p>