Coronavirus - Overall
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No mask required supermarket (Florida) doing well
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Some random muddled thoughts:
I don’t come with many solutions, but I sense there are an increasing number of people who assume there’s some sort of perfect (or perhaps a better word is: quick) solution to this whole thing: particularly that we should just let Covid spread and be done with it.
I’ve been intrigued for months by the implicit economic and consumer behaviour theories that some people (and posters) have that you can somehow wall off circa 25% (the elderly, “at risk”, fat bastards, etc) of the population and that economic, employment, and social life will just somehow magically carry on for the rest of the population, and that there’s no possible interaction or overlaps there across the groups.
Sure, the spending of the elderly and other groups doesn’t drop away to zero if they are magically walled off, but like the stereotypical marketing grad who only wants to focus on the young cool crowd; it does assume away their discretionary spending in a local economy. Not to mention social connections (yet)...
Anyone that thinks you can either:
(a) ‘wall off the elderly’ and at risk, and/or
(b) let survival of the fittest run through the elderly and at risk population groups etc... and somehow, say, save the tourism and hospitality industries (as but two major employing industries of young people) has never looked twice at the average cruise ship clientele, package tour group, or a suburban cafe crowd on a weekday. Among others.
(Some days I wonder if some of the Tourism Associations have even noticed their clientele, based on some of the public commentary I’ve seen.)
Sucks for the primarily young people that work in those parts of the tourism and hospitality sectors - somehow they won’t lose their jobs when the 65+ and Fat Bastards stay at home?? Absolutely, you “haven’t deprived them of their freedom”, but bad luck for their day job. Arguably, there’s no ideal outcome there either way.
Sweden tried a version of it early on, card spending still dropped by 28%. The threshold for a number of the population for discretionary spending is unlikely to be the mortality rate that is seen as the significant metric by some TSF posters. There’s certainly substitution effects going on in the various national economies. But, I’d say a significant number of people in countries with community transmission will base decisions like “shall we go out for dinner” on ‘are we likely to get sick if we do’, not ‘well, statistically I probably won’t die...’
How many people will do that? Some, yep - not all people, but enough to put the thin profit margins in many industries at risk. The substitution effect is also reduced if tradies can’t go into the homes of the 65+ and Fat Bastard to do the booming kitchen or bathroom reno trade. Etcetera.
About Sweden... just under a year ago it was all the rage, and some people were joking about wanting to move there. Sweden seems to have been quietly forgotten about, along with other lines like “but more people die in car crashes [than with unrestricted Covid transmission]”. I don’t agree with some of the details of “lockdowns” and travel approaches etc. But I wonder if some of the absolute opponents might do better to stick to a classic principled libertarian-based opposition, rather than jumping from one spurious claim to another.
One thought about the “we need to develop herd immunity (without/before vaccines) crowd”. Presumably the wider the spread of Covid, statistically the greater the chances of new mutations like B1.1.7 and B1.351?
Maybe that won’t matter much and any future mutations will be “just” minor mutations. Or maybe it will change things substantially just as the science boffins had their vaccines on track. Let’s hope not.
Mental health has rightly been a concern through this whole journey. I get the mental health pressures of young people “denied socialising”, kids not seeing their mates (I’ve seen that at home), and certainly the employment pressures etc.
However, I think there are also mental health implications of separation from the elderly/at risk. Let alone the impact of attending Granny’s funeral so soon after the funeral for their mate “Slim” in a herd immunity/“let it spread” approach.
Yes he ate too many pies, but you did quite like the bloke.
I don’t see there being any low-harm options there. Because viruses suck, and not seeing your mates sucks - but there’s not yet a solution to both that doesn’t involve some form of lockdown/border restrictions for a time.
I think there is genuine cause for optimism for about six to nine months time, I’m confident that vaccines, rapid tests, etc will get us to a point where Covid does become more manageable like “seasonal flu” and life finds some sort of new normal. I think the genie is irretrievably out of the bottle on new ways of work, which is a good thing too.
tl;dr: Covid sucks. Lockdowns and travel restrictions suck. But I don’t have much love for the current alternatives either. Bring on vaccines and new medical discoveries.
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@winger I briefly glanced at one article in which they were saying maybe the first Pfizer is good enough but it’s presented as a 2 dosage vaccine. Who knows. I get the second in early March. If people are having problems, or more covid symptoms, it is with the second dose apparently.
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One of my biggest concerns is the longer the lockdown the more ‘acccepted’ it becomes that indoors in your home is safe, outdoors is dangerous.
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
One of my biggest concerns is the longer the lockdown the more ‘acccepted’ it becomes that indoors in your home is safe, outdoors is dangerous.
I get this. I don’t want to be in a perpetual mask wearing society.
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@donsteppa Top post/rant/series of muddled thoughts.
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@donsteppa good points as always. Walling off the elderly or vulnerable could be voluntary though. Has anyone ever asked the elderly about their preferences for locking down?
My fear for the whole covid thing has been not the virus, but the observable behaviour of political leaders, media and the undeniable wealth and business transfer to huge corporations at the expense of small business.
The authoritarian approach, police enforcement and hefty fines used to enforce the restrictions on personal movement and freedom has been an ominous hammer on a population whose collective goodwill and overall compliance have made lockdowns a success. The people have slowed covid, not the politicians.
I accept the current procedures as one way of successfully dealing with and delaying covid transmission but will continue to question the roles and decisions of governments during all this. The virus hasn't changed our lives, government reactions have.
One day the virus will be gone from our lives but will the governments ever be?
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@catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
One of my biggest concerns is the longer the lockdown the more ‘acccepted’ it becomes that indoors in your home is safe, outdoors is dangerous.
I get this. I don’t want to be in a perpetual mask wearing society.
But you get to wear theatrical capes and rather sick throwing daggers! Hugo Weaving was well before his time.
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@siam said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@donsteppa good points as always. Walling off the elderly or vulnerable could be voluntary though. Has anyone ever asked the elderly about their preferences for locking down?
My fear for the whole covid thing has been not the virus, but the observable behaviour of political leaders, media and the undeniable wealth and business transfer to huge corporations at the expense of small business.
The authoritarian approach, police enforcement and hefty fines used to enforce the restrictions on personal movement and freedom has been an ominous hammer on a population whose collective goodwill and overall compliance have made lockdowns a success. The people have slowed covid, not the politicians.
I accept the current procedures as one way of successfully dealing with and delaying covid transmission but will continue to question the roles and decisions of governments during all this. The virus hasn't changed our lives, government reactions have.
One day the virus will be gone from our lives but will the governments ever be?
This virus is going nowhere
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@siam said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Walling off the elderly or vulnerable could be voluntary though. Has anyone ever asked the elderly about their preferences for locking down?
It could be and should be. Have we ever had law abiding healthy people confined in this way before during peace times. Yet we all got by well enough. Now out of control nanny states are running rampant. And almost 12 months later we don't really seem to be any better off. Temporary restrictions are starting to have a permanent look. And someone with a sore throat (confirmed as Covid with tests that aren't 100%) = lock the country down again just in case
My view has always been
Govts to once again respect our right and freedoms except (maybe) have restrictions on the sick with symptoms (like a high temperature of coughing non stop). And people collectively need to understand. Give Govts to much power and they will go crazy. It seems to be the nature of the beast.
Education.Lots of it. And then start trusting people to do whats best not treating everyone like naughty children
Provide money to support the vulnerable. Say free vaccines if they want to do this. Or home deliveries. Even free vitamin / herbal supplements or water purifiers etc
Investigate more fully (and fairly) some of these (cheap) treatments like hydroxychloroquine or Ivermectin.
Do a sensible risk cost assessment. And accept that Govt's can't ever save and protect everyone -
@siam said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@donsteppa good points as always. Walling off the elderly or vulnerable could be voluntary though. Has anyone ever asked the elderly about their preferences for locking down?
My fear for the whole covid thing has been not the virus, but the observable behaviour of political leaders, media and the undeniable wealth and business transfer to huge corporations at the expense of small business.
The authoritarian approach, police enforcement and hefty fines used to enforce the restrictions on personal movement and freedom has been an ominous hammer on a population whose collective goodwill and overall compliance have made lockdowns a success. The people have slowed covid, not the politicians.
I accept the current procedures as one way of successfully dealing with and delaying covid transmission but will continue to question the roles and decisions of governments during all this. The virus hasn't changed our lives, government reactions have.
One day the virus will be gone from our lives but will the governments ever be?
Whilst I lean towards your side of this, what has been staggering to me is the level of public support for the hammer approach taken. Witness the political domination of NZ, QLD, WA, and even Dan bloody Andrews in VIC.
Unfortunately, this appears to be what we want.
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UK road toll 2018: 1770
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-provisional-estimates-year-ending-june-2018#:~:text=Statistics on reported road casualties,severities%2C a decrease of 6%25UK COVID 19 death toll since 15 February 2020 (close enough to exactly one year): 120,365
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so what is happening with the CV of late?
Seems the majority of the world, numbers are dropping off, even Mexico and Brazil seem to have passed thier peak, India, well who knows about thier numbers which are looking superb as well, and I doubt they are getting vaccines to the swathes of vulnerable people ( I realise in some of these countries the true numbers of infected/dead are likely much higher)
Can understand the massive drop off in infections and deaths in the likes of the UK, US with massive vaccine roll outs, but overall is the virus itself petering out, or mutated to become less infectious or deadly so it is able to survive?
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@taniwharugby There could well be a seasonal element to it, which has been suggested as a possibility. The lockdowns in Europe will also be having an effect and then as you say the vaccine roll out. Let’s hope!
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@voodoo There's widespread support in NZ because only 25 people have dies and life apart from overseas travel is pretty much normal. Unemployment falling we were only in recession for one quarter. The sun is shining etc.
Plus wherever we get our news its fucking Armageddon wherever they didn't take their medicine.
Plus cultural cringe. Look at us look at us. Aren't we clever? Did you know we have hobbits too?
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@siam said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@donsteppa good points as always. Walling off the elderly or vulnerable could be voluntary though. Has anyone ever asked the elderly about their preferences for locking down?
I think there's an interesting cultural/world view aspect to it all that differs significantly. After the end of Level 3 in May last year I had an good chat with a volunteer who had been on a regional iwi-organised checkpoint during lockdown. Paraphrasing, for them it was entirely based on "protecting our Kaumātua and Kuia". Politics and the media held no sway.
Since then, I've watched some of the passionate arguments and statistics about how Covid only really affects the elderly and vulnerable ; and wryly thought that those arguments will reinforce the views and actions of that iwi, rather than change them.
I saw something similar out of Korea late last year, though I haven't looked more widely
"The majority of Korean people are supporting this type of very aggressive contact tracing at the potential cost or expense of privacy," Kwon Soonman, public health professor at Seoul National University, told ABC News. "There is a kind of group pressure that I should not harm my neighbor, because it's an infectious disease."
@siam said in Coronavirus - Overall:
My fear for the whole covid thing has been not the virus, but the observable behaviour of political leaders, media and the undeniable wealth and business transfer to huge corporations at the expense of small business.
As a slightly relevant aside, I think the (relative ) importance of small business is one of those wonderful NZ number eight wire stories, but gets overstated.
- "97 of all NZ businesses are small businesses" - which is impressive, but also
- "they employ 29% of all NZ employees"
Most people I've talked to had had assumed that second figure would be much larger. I've been too lazy to check whether seven out of ten people working for medium and large companies is the same internationally, but my guess is it's in the ballpark.
Bigger businesses doing well probably benefits more people than we tend to expect. And also to the smaller businesses who contract to them and to govt departments for services, etc.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo There's widespread support in NZ because only 25 people have dies and life apart from overseas travel is pretty much normal. Unemployment falling we were only in recession for one quarter. The sun is shining etc.
Plus wherever we get our news its fucking Armageddon wherever they didn't take their medicine.
Plus cultural cringe. Look at us look at us. Aren't we clever? Did you know we have hobbits too?
"Here are lots of photos of awesome natural scenery that you can't travel to yet. But what do you think of it?"
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@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall:
"Here are lots of photos of awesome natural scenery that you can't travel to yet. But what do you think of it?"
The world reacts!
@Catogrande do you mean summer/winter seasonal or just the cyclical for the virus? Given many parts of the world are heading out of summer but numbers seem to still be on decline.