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It's a deliberately high target but I'm encouraged by the messaging coming out of NSW. Now that people I care about are vaccinated, I don't care about those in the remaining 20-30% who elect not to be vaccinated.
What will be interesting is how places like WA, SA and Qld pivot.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
hi fellow Australians, please reassure me that there is actually light at the end of this tunnel
The last week has seen a real ramp up in the political rhetoric in this country. The Feds are trying to get a road map when we become one country again. The states have either said "fuck you! i won't do what you tell me" (the thought of palachook rocking out to RATM actually cracks me up) or "we'll open before that!" and essentially we have a Red v Blue divide. And they aren't even trying to hide it
This week Dick the Qld treasurer called the Liberals "filled with crazies" because they are commited to opening up once vaccine targets are met. Mark McGown has basically outright said the WA border isn't opening to anywhere that has a covid case. NSw and the Feds want shit opened when we hit 70%.
I look at the vaccination graphs on the NZ thread and see the UK, heavily vaccinated, months ahead of us in the rollout, and yet they still haven't got to the 70% mark, and the rate is slowing. At current levels, estimates vary from mid-November to mid-December, depending on the state (and yay, I'm in a really really slow one), but pretty much every country on earth has a massive slow down well before that.
Is this country ever fucking opening up?
Gladys is talking about NSW opening for international travel in Nov - you just need to get the fck out of QLD!
if, and it's a big if, the vaccine targets are met
The vaccine targets will get smashed in NSW. Its not relevant to compare to overseas as they didn't have the targets to shoot for and the lockdown hanging over them until they did. The light at the end of the tunnel is literally in our control now. We are 2 days away from 70% first dose, and 10 days from 80% - I'd be surprised if 90% of the 80% are already booked in for their 2n shot and will follow through
Australia-wide, not so much...
90% seems aggressive, but 80%+ for NSW is a lay down misere. The Canadian provinces with heavier restrictions stalled out around 83-85% currently for one dose, and those with less restrictions are around 73-75%.
I would expect Australia to be similar - it might be a slog getting from 75-80% with the longer turn around time for AZ.
The worm will soon turn with Queensland and WA not taking COVID seriously with lower vaccination rates.
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Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
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@rotated said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
hi fellow Australians, please reassure me that there is actually light at the end of this tunnel
The last week has seen a real ramp up in the political rhetoric in this country. The Feds are trying to get a road map when we become one country again. The states have either said "fuck you! i won't do what you tell me" (the thought of palachook rocking out to RATM actually cracks me up) or "we'll open before that!" and essentially we have a Red v Blue divide. And they aren't even trying to hide it
This week Dick the Qld treasurer called the Liberals "filled with crazies" because they are commited to opening up once vaccine targets are met. Mark McGown has basically outright said the WA border isn't opening to anywhere that has a covid case. NSw and the Feds want shit opened when we hit 70%.
I look at the vaccination graphs on the NZ thread and see the UK, heavily vaccinated, months ahead of us in the rollout, and yet they still haven't got to the 70% mark, and the rate is slowing. At current levels, estimates vary from mid-November to mid-December, depending on the state (and yay, I'm in a really really slow one), but pretty much every country on earth has a massive slow down well before that.
Is this country ever fucking opening up?
Gladys is talking about NSW opening for international travel in Nov - you just need to get the fck out of QLD!
if, and it's a big if, the vaccine targets are met
The vaccine targets will get smashed in NSW. Its not relevant to compare to overseas as they didn't have the targets to shoot for and the lockdown hanging over them until they did. The light at the end of the tunnel is literally in our control now. We are 2 days away from 70% first dose, and 10 days from 80% - I'd be surprised if 90% of the 80% are already booked in for their 2n shot and will follow through
Australia-wide, not so much...
90% seems aggressive, but 80%+ for NSW is a lay down misere. The Canadian provinces with heavier restrictions stalled out around 83-85% currently for one dose, and those with less restrictions are around 73-75%.
I would expect Australia to be similar - it might be a slog getting from 75-80% with the longer turn around time for AZ.
The worm will soon turn with Queensland and WA not taking COVID seriously with lower vaccination rates.
agree, the 90% is my estimate of the 80% already with their 1st dose (expected in 10 days) that go onto to get the 2nd - so really just excludes the old people with 1 shot of AZ holding out for the PZ cocktail. Again, only talking NSW
Look at this - 10 days til 1 dose hits 80% - and just 8 days to go from 70% to 80% which is pretty wild - surely the numbers won't change a lot in the next 10 days from the previous 7 day average?
And then, once people stop getting 1st doses (say at 85% or 90%?) then surely the infrastructure becomes available to increase the 2nd dosage rate (subject to limitations on supply, people waiting longer for increased efficacy etc)
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@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vic -
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
That's cool graphic they've made. Days until target etc
Some good comms.
Yeah it's a great resource - and you'll never guess, but it was NOT built by the Government...
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vicWhen the governments talk about the 70% / 80% targets, do we know if they're referring to 16+?
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@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vicWhen the governments talk about the 70% / 80% targets, do we know if they're referring to 16+?
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vicWhen the governments talk about the 70% / 80% targets, do we know if they're referring to 16+?
Not sure mate, suspect they stay deliberately vague to allow for maximum wiggle room. But you'd hope so.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vicWhen the governments talk about the 70% / 80% targets, do we know if they're referring to 16+?
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vicWhen the governments talk about the 70% / 80% targets, do we know if they're referring to 16+?
Not sure mate, suspect they stay deliberately vague to allow for maximum wiggle room. But you'd hope so.
Hmm, that answer doesn't make me very comfortable. Wiggle room in this kind of situation just means deferring the arguments until later when it's much more urgent.
Just been to check on the Dept of Health website, and yeah it looks like their %ages are all based on 16+ too.
Which begs the question why are we wasting good vaccine on 12-16 year olds? They're not going help us hit the target. Get to the back of the queue kiddos, you can have your go when we've finally converted enough boomers and Pete Evans followers to allow us to open the pubs again.
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@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vicWhen the governments talk about the 70% / 80% targets, do we know if they're referring to 16+?
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vicWhen the governments talk about the 70% / 80% targets, do we know if they're referring to 16+?
Not sure mate, suspect they stay deliberately vague to allow for maximum wiggle room. But you'd hope so.
Hmm, that answer doesn't make me very comfortable. Wiggle room in this kind of situation just means deferring the arguments until later when it's much more urgent.
Just been to check on the Dept of Health website, and yeah it looks like their %ages are all based on 16+ too.
Which begs the question why are we wasting good vaccine on 12-16 year olds? They're not going help us hit the target. Get to the back of the queue kiddos, you can have your go when we've finally converted enough boomers and Pete Evans followers to allow us to open the pubs again.
I hear you, though you'd think the number of 12-15yr olds getting jabbed would be pretty low? Unless they have underlying issues, in which case its hard to begrudge them in favor of me getting travle again...
I have a 12yr of, have no plans to book him in any time soon - in fact will probably only do it if the post-80% restrictions impact him
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vicWhen the governments talk about the 70% / 80% targets, do we know if they're referring to 16+?
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vicWhen the governments talk about the 70% / 80% targets, do we know if they're referring to 16+?
Not sure mate, suspect they stay deliberately vague to allow for maximum wiggle room. But you'd hope so.
Hmm, that answer doesn't make me very comfortable. Wiggle room in this kind of situation just means deferring the arguments until later when it's much more urgent.
Just been to check on the Dept of Health website, and yeah it looks like their %ages are all based on 16+ too.
Which begs the question why are we wasting good vaccine on 12-16 year olds? They're not going help us hit the target. Get to the back of the queue kiddos, you can have your go when we've finally converted enough boomers and Pete Evans followers to allow us to open the pubs again.
I hear you, though you'd think the number of 12-15yr olds getting jabbed would be pretty low? Unless they have underlying issues, in which case its hard to begrudge them in favor of me getting travle again...
I have a 12yr of, have no plans to book him in any time soon - in fact will probably only do it if the post-80% restrictions impact him
Yeah I joking obviously. I thought they said they'd be opening up Pfizer to 12+ pretty soon, but dunno what "soon" means.
My 13yo is keen to get it as soon as she can, she's been talking about it with her friends and they all seem to be of the same view. Which is fine by me, I'm more concerned about her getting covid than any side effects.
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@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vicWhen the governments talk about the 70% / 80% targets, do we know if they're referring to 16+?
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@gibbonrib said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Developments. Andrews and Sutton saying that zero is off the table for Vic, numbers will be going up and not down from here.
Very modest relaxation of restrictions when we hit 70% first dose on or around 23rd Sept.
Also talking about hitting 70% double dosed in Oct and 80% in early November, which seems wildly optimistic.
This estimates 70% in 64 days so 1st week of Nov, 80% by 22 Nov - but those dates firm up as you get closer obviously
https://covidlive.com.au/vicWhen the governments talk about the 70% / 80% targets, do we know if they're referring to 16+?
Not sure mate, suspect they stay deliberately vague to allow for maximum wiggle room. But you'd hope so.
Hmm, that answer doesn't make me very comfortable. Wiggle room in this kind of situation just means deferring the arguments until later when it's much more urgent.
Just been to check on the Dept of Health website, and yeah it looks like their %ages are all based on 16+ too.
Which begs the question why are we wasting good vaccine on 12-16 year olds? They're not going help us hit the target. Get to the back of the queue kiddos, you can have your go when we've finally converted enough boomers and Pete Evans followers to allow us to open the pubs again.
I hear you, though you'd think the number of 12-15yr olds getting jabbed would be pretty low? Unless they have underlying issues, in which case its hard to begrudge them in favor of me getting travle again...
I have a 12yr of, have no plans to book him in any time soon - in fact will probably only do it if the post-80% restrictions impact him
Yeah I joking obviously. I thought they said they'd be opening up Pfizer to 12+ pretty soon, but dunno what "soon" means.
My 13yo is keen to get it as soon as she can, she's been talking about it with her friends and they all seem to be of the same view. Which is fine by me, I'm more concerned about her getting covid than any side effects.
I think it's Sep 13th isn't it?!!
Edit - link here https://www.pm.gov.au/media/children-aged-12-15-years-now-eligible-covid-19-vaccine
Further edit - re your daughter, that's good, we have seen that attitude from the neighbours kids who are in the 16-18 range, all their friends are getting vaccinated. If my 12yr old wanted to get it I wouldn't stop him, I'm just not going to push him towards it. I'm really not worried about my kids catching it and actually getting sick from it.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
It's a deliberately high target but I'm encouraged by the messaging coming out of NSW. Now that people I care about are vaccinated, I don't care about those in the remaining 20-30% who elect not to be vaccinated.
What will be interesting is how places like WA, SA and Qld pivot.
I think SA will be pretty good given they’ve historically had the largest proportion of people aged 65+ than any other state (I think Tassie might be right there with them).
The challenge is the other two states, but one is saying nothing to see here we are Covid free (WA) and the other is saying ridiculous things in the parliament today about kids and trying to scaremonger (Qld)
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@act-crusader said in Coronavirus - Australia:
The challenge is the other two states, but one is saying nothing to see here we are Covid free (WA) and the other is saying ridiculous things in the parliament today about kids and trying to scaremonger (Qld)
It never makes sense politically to hitch your wagon to an outcome you can't fully control. Double that for something like COVID where you have to think after NZ and Victoria an irreversible breach is just a matter of time.
Therefore the only conclusion I can draw is that Palaszczuk genuinely believes what she is saying here and that through a mix of the current protocol and Billy Moore screaming Queenslander repeatedly they and their kids will safe?
Coronavirus - Australia