For those who are interested, a good explanation of the market turmoil.

Betting that interest rates would stay low to fund current pension liabilities. What could possibly go wrong?

Maggie Pagano  /  Sep 30 Pensions time-bomb: a cock-up by regulators created conditions for market mayhem Pensions time-bomb: a cock-up by regulators created conditions for market mayhem

The flow of money out of equities into the gilts market over the last few decades - and the fad for Liability Driven Investment instruments - was a huge regulatory failure that, in the wake of the mini-budget, triggered chaos.

I can't remember where but I have read plenty that supports the notion that Putin is genuinely popular at home. Living standards for the average Russian have undoubtedly improved dramatically since he came to power. It's just that they haven't improved as much or as fast as even other ex communist Eastern European nations. However Ivan Average doesn't realise that he simply sees no more queues for everything and near famine conditions and thanks Putin for delivering 'the good times'.

Add toi this the embarrassment of teh Yeltsin years with Russia losing its empire and going from a super-poer wo a joke in a decade or so and you can see howa strong, no nonsense leader would be attractive to a majority. Sure he might broook no dissent and his human rights record... but that's been the norm in Russia since - forever.

@Victor-Meldrew said in Tech, monopolies, censorship:

Here's an interesting thing.

When slavery was abolished in 1807, a group of African potentates (West Africa, I think) repeatedly petitioned the King against abolition as selling their own people and those they'd conquered was highly lucrative. It's mentioned in my Open University materials

I recall reading this on a number of websites about 15 years ago but can't find a single reference today. I wonder if you brought it up on Twitter or FB it'd be taken down and you'd be banned.

I don't know specifically about that but https://research.cornell.edu/news-features/curious-history-slavery-west-africa

@MajorRage said in Global Recession:

@dogmeat Brexit has nothing to do with it.

sorry to ask a month later but didn't leavers promise money to fund the nhs?

Boris Johnson, Brexit and the problem of NHS funding Jun 27, 2016  /  Politics The leave campaign made three key promises – are they keeping them? The leave campaign made three key promises – are they keeping them?

Even Iain Duncan Smith has admitted that ‘our promises were a series of possibilities’, but just how possible are they in reality?

@Bones said in Political Memes (memes only):

@booboo said in Political Memes (memes only):

Gold star fella.

I only stole it from Twitter

@booboo

Updated.

A follow up.

@MiketheSnow

Old hat....

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@Tim

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@voodoo said in Aussie Politics:

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A fair point

This seems pretty neat. More on the link.

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@dogmeat said in Auckland CBD:

The Mayor has very little power anyway. It's a Presidential type position leading a council that is deeply fractured. Which inevitably results in a succession of shabby compromises and very little in the way of real progress.

Grumpy old man

#VoteONELisaLewis

@MiketheSnow That is such a good idea. Keeps you involved, out there in the field & rugby has a respect the ref rule, so if anybody you gives you any beans for it, you can march them 10 without fear of repercussion.

I looked to take up reffing when I was in Hong Kong. Then I bought the (IRB) book about it, read all the regulations rules, looked at all the courses needed and went to the pub instead.

A decision I deeply regret. But I'm sure the pub was good!

@nzzp said in Climate Change:

@NTA 5 hours storage is still a heck of a lot right

Agreed. 120GWh is not a small amount of energy to store, but that is the figure they're using as the absolute peak storage required at the absolute peak power demand on the NEM ~24GW = 24,000MW. That usually happens in high summer when the heat waves are on. Typically low wind conditions and solar efficiency goes down above 25C.

To put that in perspective, current network battery output is maximum 260MW with storage of a bit over an hour, but another 18GW is planned - no figure on energy for that power output I might add. https://aemo.com.au/en/learn/energy-explained/energy-101/energy-explained-big-batteries

Now, to need that storage running full whack at 5 hours you would have to need it to be night time without much wind at all over this entire area:
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None of the above takes any future hydro into account, or future changes in the NEM like adding the storage capacity of hundreds and thousands of EVs with appropriate integration.

Energy efficiency would be a lot cheaper in the long term as well. If our housing standards were increased, we'd use less. And the cheapest kWh is the one you never buy.

Lot to do on the demand side, even for heavy industry.

@Kid-Chocolate but it's achieved so much!

@Kid-Chocolate Looks like a typical noob to me.

LOL.

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20 years. What’s the over/under on malfunctioning cameras …? Two weeks?

Jun 27  /  Ghislaine Maxwell Ghislaine Maxwell sentenced to 20 years for helping Epstein Ghislaine Maxwell sentenced to 20 years for helping Epstein

NEW YORK (AP) — Ghislaine Maxwell, the jet-setting socialite who once consorted with royals, presidents and billionaires, was sentenced Tuesday to 20 years in prison for helping the financier Jeffrey Epstein sexually abuse underage girls.

@Bones

I know I am but don’t care

“How did he and his party pull off this stunning recovery?”

“ … There's no doubt that his government's response to the pandemic was flawed, and that eventually dragged down approval of Ford. There were plenty of voters who wanted Ford out.

“But there's also no doubt that a significant chunk of Ontarians are tired of the pandemic and want to move on. Ford's party capitalized on that, and its "Get It Done" messaging likely resonated with those who are "done" with COVID-19. …”

“Even more remarkable — and something that should worry the NDP and its next leader — was the success of the PC pitch to workers. The party succeeded in capturing such ridings as Windsor-Tecumseh and Essex in the heart of the auto sector, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek in Ontario's Steeltown, and Timmins, a major centre for mining. “

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-doug-ford-pc-majority-win-1.6471963

@Tim

I don’t know the answer, but if they’re evangelicals it certainly would be unsurprising that they’re anti-vax. My mennonite relatives (new order) are absolutely the most hardcore unvaccinated people I know. I know others (especially of protestant faiths whose churchs are movie cinemas rented on Sunday mornings) who will have nothing to do with the jab. Still, I’m not convinced this makes them child abusers and molesters. You’d never know it by our modern-day guilt-by-association news and social media though, where anti-vax means pederast every bit as much as free speech means nazi. Just the way it is.

@booboo said in Black Lives Matter:

@Catogrande said in Black Lives Matter:

@booboo

Oli London or catgender person? I was referring to the former.

Oli London

Oli certainly has an interesting Wiki page and on the face of that I would say a complete piss taking troll and hats off compadre. But the radical surgery seems taking the piss taking a little far?

@Tim Thanks - that was a great read.

For an ordinary person, the unprovoked assault probably would have been home-detention worthy depending on how badly injured the female victim was and her views at sentencing.

It's not uncommon for people to escape jail on fraud charges in the vicinity of $100k , especially if reparation is ordered or they have some ability to repay the money. Also (sadly) especially if they're white and middle class.

He’s dragging this role out, doesn’t want the play to end…

Mar 16  /  Entertainment Jussie Smollett Walks Out of Jail Pending Conviction Appeal Jussie Smollett Walks Out of Jail Pending Conviction Appeal

The “Empire” actor had served less than a week of his 150-day sentence for staging a fake hate crime against himself.

We've just ordered solar with a 10kWh battery on a 5.8kWh system & a diverter to use any excess power to heat our water. It's going on a SSW facing roof. I have a personal weather station and we've used a year's solar energy data to model our savings. We'll be energy self-sufficient from April-mid November and around 60% for the rest of the year.

The big issue is the return on your investment. I think that will be around 7.5 to 8 % which is payback in around 9 years - earlier if I go for an EV in the next few years.

@dogmeat said in The CCC And Cycleways (vs Light Rail):

@shark The counter argument is accurate for bus lanes but not so much cycle paths. Akl Transport do have 26 counters up around the city. Unsurprisingly cycle activity peaked during the 2020 Lvl 4 lockdown.

As a result that year was best ever with a 11% decrease in 2021. However there were still 3.2 million cycle movements recorded which sounds like a lot but averages out at a daily figure across the 26 sites of 337. In mitigation it includes some very quiet suburban and rural routes and quite a few sites were down for some of the year. The busiest street recorded 1,200 per day.

The one Hoskings famously targeted was Nelson St FFS. Riding down that quasi motorway without lane protection would require balls so big you wouldn't be able to get on a bike. It averages 524/day.

Well put 🙂

@jc said in Bank Lending/CCCFA:

@godder said in Bank Lending/CCCFA:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127657685/ir-reports-sharp-drop-in-first-home-withdrawals-from-kiwisaver
This seems relevant, and is put squarely on the change to reduce 80% LVR exemptions as part of the banks' loan portfolios from 20% to 10%.

Mortgage advisers and property experts say the dip is not the result of changes to the Credit Contract and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA), which have seen the proportion of home loan applications that are approved fall.

Instead, they blame Reserve Bank Te Pūtea Matua​ limits on how many low-deposit loans banks are allowed to make.

Obviously not the whole story, but no doubt it's some.

It's not an either/or thing. As you will know better than most, the legal framework that the government controls dictates what the RBNZ sets as banking regulations and operational parameters for themselves and the financial institutions. Then there are other, overlapping legal frameworks that dictate directly what the financial institutions are able / obliged to do. The financial institutions set in place processes and mechanisms that they use to make sure they comply with those laws that directly govern them as well as the operational directives from the RBNZ.

The CCCFA amendment didn't change any of the directives from the RBNZ, but it did set in place new expectations for how the banks executed their internal procedures. Effectively this means that the RBNZ says things like reduce your exposure to non-80% LVR loans to 10%. The process of bringing their loan book into compliance is subject to the new terms in the CCCFA amendment. If they look at a loan they are obliged to check for affordability.

And the directive to reduce the exemptions doesn't ban them, it just limits them: it is still within a bank's discretion to issue an 85%, 90% or even 100% LVR loan if the circumstances are right. But if they are having to do affordability checks on someone with a 20% or bigger deposit (which they are), imagine the due diligence they have to do on someone who only has a 10% deposit. Looking at it from their POV, if they can be deemed reckless by offering a $400k loan on a $500k property, there would need to be near certainty of affordability before they offered a $850k loan on a $1m property.

I also find it ironic that QE and the Support For Lending specifically put large volumes of cash onto banks' balance sheets. If they weren't supposed to be lending it out what on earth did the government and RBNZ think they were going to do with it? And why didn't they spread it more widely? As "picking winners" goes this is even worse than the lockdown windfalls for supermarkets IMO.

Absolutely fair, especially that last point about Funding for Lending, should have closed that months ago (and I did say that the article was not the whole story of the reduction in lending). One of the exemptions to the 80% LVR is new builds, so those aren't counted, but I assume they also don't make up a large portion of mortgages. Reducing from 20% to 10% of the loan book as high LVR mortgages obviously doesn't prevent that lending, but if a bank was already at or above 10%, does put an immediate stop to further lending above 80% LVR (other than new builds) until the bank gets down to the 10% limit.

Edit: https://stats.govt.nz/information-releases/property-transfer-statistics-december-2021-quarter

This also shows quite a reduction in actual property transfers of homes.

There were 41,460 property transfers involving a home in the December 2021 quarter (down 19 percent from the December 2020 quarter)

Oh, man.

Harvey Weinstein Could Go Free, as Appeals Court Casts Doubt on Conviction

gmaddaus  /  Dec 16, 2021 Harvey Weinstein Could Go Free, as Appeals Court Casts Doubt on Conviction Harvey Weinstein Could Go Free, as Appeals Court Casts Doubt on Conviction

An appeals court could allow Harvey Weinstein to go free, after raising serious concerns about the use of supporting evidence at trial.

Nov 27, 2021 Mark Butcher: Michael Vaughan Can Be A ‘Piers Morgan-Lite Twitter Personality’ But He Is ‘Not A Racist’ Mark Butcher: Michael Vaughan Can Be A ‘Piers Morgan-Lite Twitter Personality’ But He Is ‘Not A Racist’

Former England batter Mark Butcher, speaking on the Wisden Cricket Weekly Podcast, explained how, in his view, Michael Vaughan is “not a racist”.

If you can’t be bothered reading it the gist is exactly what I suspected. Vaughan can be a bit of a cock but he’s not racist.

I finally made good on my intent to explore some of the human interest angles of 9/11. I recently finished The Only Plane in the Sky: An Oral History of 9/11 by Garrett M. Graff. As with most things 9/11, it's a tough read, but even tougher to put the book down.

@chimoaus said in Diabetes, Should Govt Do More?:

I think what irks me the most is how much choice and free will do we really have? We all like to think we can make well informed choices, but I can't help but feel it's not a level playing field.

These companies spend a small fortune engineering food that we can't resist, they then use a variety of marketing tricks to get us to buy, all the while spending a fortune influencing politicians, and the general public to avoid any heat coming back on them.

Bang on IMO - it's very difficult to resist everything forever, and genetics make it harder as some people just can't touch anything or they gain weight very quickly, while others don't have that problem.

@crucial said in NZ Judiciary:

@godder said in NZ Judiciary:

@crucial Terrible case that, family is loaded with pieces of work. For the defense lawyers, they just represent them to the best of their ability to ensure a fair process. Point out flaws in the prosecution case, ensure the law is applied correctly, and if guilty, provide a list of relevant mitigating factors (if any) for the judge prior to sentencing.

Yeah, I probably read too much into the reported defence comments but you are right. They do need to cover the bases or it gets opened up for appeal.

Your last sentence sums it up well.

@victor-meldrew oh hell yeah, my only issue with it is the hypocrisy, that it's embraced and encouraged by everyone, and the not straight blokes occasionally do it too, but if a straight bloke as a judge said about getting tingles watching a female dance, or said about how she should wear less all the time, they'd probably be thrown out of the country.

@kirwan said in New Lynn knife attack:

@godder said in New Lynn knife attack:

@booboo said in New Lynn knife attack:

@godder said in New Lynn knife attack:

Grant says IPT clearly got it wrong in accepting the claim originally, and there should obviously be an offence in the antiterrorism legislation for planning attacks, so it's not like he's suggesting those parts were good, just that he's pleased that the law as written was complied with.

@kirwan said in New Lynn knife attack:

@godder said in New Lynn knife attack:

Grant says IPT clearly got it wrong in accepting the claim originally, and there should obviously be an offence in the antiterrorism legislation for planning attacks, so it's not like he's suggesting those parts were good, just that he's pleased that the law as written was complied with.

Which is not seeing the forest for the trees.

2021 ... where the lefty is defending Damian Grant and the conservative is disagreeing ... 🙂

🙂 Mistrust of authority is not exclusive to either the left or right wing, there is plenty of history of both being poorly treated by governments. Labour parties and trade unions often use red as a signature colour to represent the blood shed by workers in struggles for decent working conditions. Whatever I can say about modern NZ politics, nobody is suggesting sending out the police and/or army to attack the workers' strike/picket/march or anything like it.

Drama queens

Very Victor Hugo

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