Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@rapido Good to see some real external scrutiny starting - good article that one
fwiw both the Covid Te Punaha Matitini modelling papers I've read say "This paper has not yet undergone formal peer review" which tbh I buy as Covid is a moving picture ... but would be good know how review/challenging they do go through given they're being used to support NZ government policy and public statements.
For example UK have a formal modelling committee which reviews models from four teams (I think) so there is a lot of internal cross-checking and questioning of assumptions used between those models.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@rapido Ireland would also have a decent number with anti-bodies too?
Not sure about the Rebublic of Ireland, but Northern Ireland within the UK reports "It is estimated that over 9 in 10 adults (16+), or 91.9% of the adult population would have tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test in the week beginning 23rd August 2021 suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated"
There's a porous border between ROI/NI, no checks.
You're totally right to look at overall antibody rates in European countries now, not just Vax rates
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@bovidae Plus it's a bit specious to say we'd never get those rates because we would go into lockdown when the whole point is those are the predictions with zero controls.
I'm also not saying Hendy is right but who doesn't like a nerd bitch slapping contest?
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@bovidae Plus it's a bit specious to say we'd never get those rates because we would go into lockdown when the whole point is those are the predictions with zero controls.
I'm also not saying Hendy is right but who doesn't like a nerd bitch slapping contest?
I guess the point is his predictions seem alarmist when compared to what's actually happening in other countries.
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@bovidae said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm not saying that Hendy's model is correct but I was reading that he used NZ-specific data. Unless these so-called experts think that Singapore has a large, older Maori and Pasifika population too.
Was talking to an ED consultant mate here, and he has done is own estimates based on what is happening in AK. Reckons Hendy is not far off if things were let out of control
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This post is deleted!
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@kirwan I can see the benefit of planning for worst case scenario, but does make it very alarmist and scare mongering
Give us a best case one too, I mean that will be the roadmap so many want, put a positive spin on something for a change
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan I can see the benefit of planning for worst case scenario, but does make it very alarmist and scare mongering
Give us a best case one too, I mean that will be the roadmap so many want, put a positive spin on something for a change
Got to give us some hope for better things. But there are a 5% group who are letting us all down. They know who they are
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@canefan people just want to know there is light at the end if the tunnel, and it ain't the maintenance guy doing work in the tunnel leaving you stranded with no clue how long you'll be or how far there us to go
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan people just want to know there is light at the end if the tunnel, and it ain't the maintenance guy doing work in the tunnel leaving you stranded with no clue how long you'll be or how far there us to go
You're telling me! I'm hanging out for L2 in 9 days for starters!
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan I can see the benefit of planning for worst case scenario, but does make it very alarmist and scare mongering
Give us a best case one too, I mean that will be the roadmap so many want, put a positive spin on something for a change
Got to give us some hope for better things. But there are a 5% group who are letting us all down. They know who they are
They're handfuls eh, real bad eggs. And not just Covid stuff, we're also talking disobedience, stealing, spitting, running away, throwing rocks, kicking stuff, defacing stuff, burning stuff, loitering and graffiti.
And that's just the stuff we know about.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan I can see the benefit of planning for worst case scenario, but does make it very alarmist and scare mongering
Give us a best case one too, I mean that will be the roadmap so many want, put a positive spin on something for a change
Got to give us some hope for better things. But there are a 5% group who are letting us all down. They know who they are
They're handfuls eh, real bad eggs. And not just Covid stuff, we're also talking disobedience, stealing, spitting, running away, throwing rocks, kicking stuff, defacing stuff, burning stuff, loitering and graffiti.
And that's just the stuff we know about.
Nah. Wilfully not vaxxing. Getting sick, not getting tested, going round hospital to spread it. Bad team mates
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan I can see the benefit of planning for worst case scenario, but does make it very alarmist and scare mongering
Give us a best case one too, I mean that will be the roadmap so many want, put a positive spin on something for a change
Got to give us some hope for better things. But there are a 5% group who are letting us all down. They know who they are
They're handfuls eh, real bad eggs. And not just Covid stuff, we're also talking disobedience, stealing, spitting, running away, throwing rocks, kicking stuff, defacing stuff, burning stuff, loitering and graffiti.
And that's just the stuff we know about.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan I can see the benefit of planning for worst case scenario, but does make it very alarmist and scare mongering
Give us a best case one too, I mean that will be the roadmap so many want, put a positive spin on something for a change
Got to give us some hope for better things. But there are a 5% group who are letting us all down. They know who they are
They're handfuls eh, real bad eggs. And not just Covid stuff, we're also talking disobedience, stealing, spitting, running away, throwing rocks, kicking stuff, defacing stuff, burning stuff, loitering and graffiti.
And that's just the stuff we know about.
great quote, I'm literallyw atching this right now. Brilliant.
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@bovidae said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm not saying that Hendy's model is correct but I was reading that he used NZ-specific data. Unless these so-called experts think that Singapore has a large, older Maori and Pasifika population too.
Was talking to an ED consultant mate here, and he has done is own estimates based on what is happening in AK. Reckons Hendy is not far off if things were let out of control
Not how itâs playing out overseas. Donât have to guess, real world examples available.