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@catogrande said in Inflation:
@antipodean said in Inflation:
@catogrande I remember well the recession Australia "had to have" when the cash rate reached 18 per cent , the mortgage rate 17 per cent, and loans to businesses above 20 per cent.
The difference is when the tide goes out this time and we see who has been swimming naked, they've got little excuse for loading themselves with debt which becomes unmanageable at two or three per cent.
The thing is, that is all many people know. Anything else is just shit that their parents tell them as scare stories. And if you look at interest rates historically, that period from the late 70's through to the mid 90's is really the outlier.
In my work (investment), part of my team consists of highly qualified younger guys that had never experienced an interest rate rise in their adult lives. It's almost like something that had become consigned to the past when the summers were always long, the policemen wore high hats and the BBC was the font of all truthfulness.
Indeed. In a previous life I ran Treasury for a substantial business - we borrowed off about 6 different lenders across various tenors / products.
When rates were rising again around 2015 I I got all the lenders in to have a chat about how things were changing, how I should anticipate liquidity squeezes etc.
It became obvious, very very quickly, that none of them had a clue.
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@majorrage said in Inflation:
@catogrande said in Inflation:
@antipodean said in Inflation:
@catogrande I remember well the recession Australia "had to have" when the cash rate reached 18 per cent , the mortgage rate 17 per cent, and loans to businesses above 20 per cent.
The difference is when the tide goes out this time and we see who has been swimming naked, they've got little excuse for loading themselves with debt which becomes unmanageable at two or three per cent.
The thing is, that is all many people know. Anything else is just shit that their parents tell them as scare stories. And if you look at interest rates historically, that period from the late 70's through to the mid 90's is really the outlier.
In my work (investment), part of my team consists of highly qualified younger guys that had never experienced an interest rate rise in their adult lives. It's almost like something that had become consigned to the past when the summers were always long, the policemen wore high hats and the BBC was the font of all truthfulness.
Indeed. In a previous life I ran Treasury for a substantial business - we borrowed off about 6 different lenders across various tenors / products.
When rates were rising again around 2015 I I got all the lenders in to have a chat about how things were changing, how I should anticipate liquidity squeezes etc.
It became obvious, very very quickly, that none of them had a clue.
Fucking Treasury. Just get the $ in cheap so the rest of the bank can make some money, would you?
One fucking job!
😎
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This post is deleted!
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(This might be one if those weird deals where you can read the entire article on twitter, but have to go through a paywall to resd on the site? Give it a try, but it’s fully available at The Times twitter.)
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/will-anyone-tell-europe-the-age-of-cheap-living-is-over-kml25mp7k
…As public anger rises over the cost-of-living crisis, and governments try to offset the damage, senior European officials say something different. They say that the Continent must accept that the two necessities of life — food and fuel — have been far too cheap for a generation, and national leaders must be prepared to risk a political backlash and tell voters the truth. … -
@Kid-Chocolate said in Inflation:
…As public anger rises over the cost-of-living crisis, and governments try to offset the damage, senior European officials say something different. They say that the Continent must accept that the two necessities of life — food and fuel — have been far too cheap for a generation, and national leaders must be prepared to risk a political backlash and tell voters the truth. …
That sounds like specious bullshit to me. Was it previously subsidised and you've removed the subsidy, or do we have inflation because you've been busy printing money like you never read a history book..?
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This is a hedge fund manager I follow who has made the correct calls on the macro situation in the past couple of years.
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2022/05/16/the-fed-is-fuct/
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@JC It's just an assumption based on refined fuels not tanking in the same way.
It could just as easily be that they have been running refineries at 100% and converted all the available crude, but given US self sufficiency in oil with capacity to expand I went with the former. Speaking of course from a position of infinite wisdom.
I have sought guidance from the brainy member of the meat whanau
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@dogmeat You mean you’re not the brainy one?
Honestly I only asked because I remember reading something a while back that the US was allowing drawdown’s of the strategic reserve so I had assumed the reduction was being consumed domestically. You could be right though. And yes, some shale oil would be handy now but then how would he survive the avalanche of eco-tweets?
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@JC He has spoken
The crude reserves (spr’s) were released by Biden to try and dampen inflation. It doesn’t work as Cindy will find out, because the demand is real in a post covid recovery situation.
There is no real shortage of crude oil, the Russians are just having to send it outside of Europe. India is a big buyer and that just means more North Sea and Arab crudes come to Europe. We are running North Sea instead of Urals. The products are similarly balanced, albeit a bit of a shortage of diesel, but it’s already priced in to the market.
This is more to do with market structure being in backwardation (which makes it unprofitable to have oil in storage) than the war/sanctions.
The real shortage/problem is gas. LNG is trapped in Russia and Europe is scrambling to find alternative supply (mostly from the US), but global heating/electricity prices are roofing and will continue to do so.
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@Frank sounds like a Democrat and North-easterner. No reasonable solutions just bend over and grab your ankles and take your medicine. Or buy an electric car if you can afford it. This is why they will lose big in November.
PS. I love meat so stick your lentils up your ass.
Inflation