SR18 the run to the finals
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Roughly 3/4s of the way through the RR and getting time to look at where teams stand chances wise.
If you take the current top 8 as proven performers and therefore 'tough' games it is interesting to look at the draw ahead and see who has the easiest/hardest run from here.
Obviously rest of the NZ derbies play a big part and there are a couple of teams to really watch out for with regard to table position.
The Jaguares are very nicely placed to push the 3rd and 4th NZ teams (Highlanders and Chiefs) down the table. They have to play the Sharks twice yet but apart from that they have no other games against other 'tough' teams.
Chiefs have the hardest run with 4 'tough' games and really need to beat the Tahs to balance out against the Highlanders (both have games against Crusaders and Canes left as well as playing each other).
Lions also have only the Sharks left to play as a 'tough' game so will be aiming for a winning run and hoping the NZ derbies let them catch the Crusaders or Canes.I can't see any difference in the top four but Saders and Canes could swap places. Quite possible that the Jags could leap up to fifth though which, if they do, could mean no NZ derby in the quarters.
Will SANZAAR really like their new format to produce semi finals with all teams from one country? I think not.
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@crucial said in SR18 the run to the finals:
Chiefs have the hardest run with 4 'tough' games and really need to beat the Tahs to balance out against the Highlanders (both have games against Crusaders and Canes left as well as playing each other).
One advantage that the Chiefs have is that all their remaining games are at home, except for a trip to Suva to play the Highlanders. I'm not saying the games are going to be easy, but the players and coaches will prefer to be preparing at home rather than travelling.
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@crucial The Crusaders did!
In reality, only the Hurricanes could catch them anyway (Highlanders had the slimmest of slim chances). Canes still can overtake the Crusaders, but it's starting to enter the realms of "mathematical possibilities".
Canes have left themselves vulnerable to being run down by the Chiefs in the final round when those two play one another. In fact, any of the Highlanders, Chiefs or Canes can nab second spot if they win both their remaining games - though the Canes still have the box seat.
Big movers this weekend were the Jaguares, who now have the opportunity to top the SA Conference and, in fact, have their destiny in their own hands. They only need to win their two remain games both away vs Bulls and Sharks to win the conference. One win will guarantee at least a wildcard spot. However, if they lose both they'll probably miss out.
Sharks, however, may have plenty to play for - they've got themselves within range of the Rebels and have winnable games against the Stormers and the Jaguares to come. They'll probably need to win both - and get a likely favour from the Highlanders beating the Rebels.
I'm going to go with a couple of big calls in predicting the playoffs will be:
Crusaders vs Sharks
Waratahs vs Jaguares
Lions vs Highlanders
Chiefs vs Hurricanes -
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Where's @Duluth thread that got blown out of the water after 1 week?
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On no I made a multi game prediction and already have something wrong! The shame.
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@duluth said in SR18 the run to the finals:
On no I made a multi game prediction and already have something wrong! The shame.
Pithy
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@crucial said in SR18 the run to the finals:
We need to manipulate the table and take places 1,4,6 and 7
Yeah - if it ends up as I've predicted, we'll have three teams on one side of the draw and - if the Crusaders lose - a strong likelihood of the final being played offshore.
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Kieran Read called for an end to the retarded conference system. It's taken a lot of the interest away for me personally, the pointy end of the season is just a bloody shambles.
The international break is also stupid, I found myself struggling to give a shit about the weekends games. Just stops momentum right when things are meant to get interesting.
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@no-quarter said in SR18 the run to the finals:
Kieran Read called for an end to the retarded conference system. It's taken a lot of the interest away for me personally, the pointy end of the season is just a bloody shambles.
The international break is also stupid, I found myself struggling to give a shit about the weekends games. Just stops momentum right when things are meant to get interesting.
WTF do you know, you are just a fan, do you not know how hard they worked to put this format together??
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It's the last year with an international break, isn't it?
Anyway, good luck finding a format that will please everyone, especially the sponsors and broadcasters who keep the competition going with their money, and at the same time respecting player welfare by limiting the number of games and amount of travel.
Maybe I'm a rugby nerd, but I don't understand at all how people lose interest in SR when we're close to the business end of the comp. It's almost crunch time and getting more exciting by the week.
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@stargazer I expect like the teams lose momentum stopping for 3 weeks, fans do too after the ups/downs of the ABs over the period and now going back to super rugby (which has less appeal to me than M10 Cup anyway)
This system is a dogs arse...yeah I am sure they will never have one to please everyone, but I expect they should be able to do better than this format.
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@rocky-rockbottom Okay, so you're implying that some/many Blues supporters lose interest because their team isn't performing well and won't make the finals? Does that mean they only care about rugby if it's played by their own team (and their team goes well)?
Hmmm, my team was shit in the Mitre 10 Cup and has been so for years. That has been terribly frustrating to say the least, but I still enjoy watching games not involving my team, particularly finals games, because I like watching the sport and NZ teams.
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@Stargazer you are, without a shadow of a doubt, the biggest rugby nerd I have ever come across.
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@stargazer I havent watched the RWC final from 1991, 1999, 2003 or 2007
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@taniwharugby said in SR18 the run to the finals:
@stargazer I havent watched the RWC final from 1991, 1999, 2003 or 2007
what are these mythical things you speak of?
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@mariner4life the fairy folk of the world (England, Aus & SA) would have you believe the tournament actually went on after we finished
:smiling_face_with_open_mouth_closed_eyes: (even those mythical 3rd/4th playoffs werent real games) -
@crucial said in SR18 the run to the finals:
We need to manipulate the table and take places 1,4,6 and 7
IF the Jags can win both their remaining matches (Bulls, Sharks) and pick up 8 points AND the Chiefs and Highlanders only get one win each (quite feasible), Then the Jags will leapfrog them into 5th.
This could mean...Saders v Rebs/Sharks
Tahs v Highlanders
Lions v Chiefs
Canes v JagsSo, the Canes and Chiefs could go into the last round wanting the other team to finish higher and therefore avoid a SA trip.
I guess it's best for Chiefs to go all out for a home semi. They will have to put their eggs into beating the Canes and hope they can get through the Brumbies without DMac, BBBR and ALB
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After the Rebels loss to the Reds there is a good chance for the Sharks to grab their place.
Jags will be looking to jump up the ladder after playing the Bulls and throw pressure on the last round.
Highlanders will know how many points they need in the last game against the Rebels for table position.
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Is anyone watching the Bulls Jags game. Wheres @barbarian. The TMO in this game will do you proud
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@rebound said in SR18 the run to the finals:
Is anyone watching the Bulls Jags game. Wheres @barbarian. The TMO in this game will do you proud
Plenty of points and a lost opportunity for the Jaguares. Bulls playing the part of a spoiler team.
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so...
Tahs killed the Sunwolves 77-25 after game being close enough at the break to secure top spot in Aussie conference
Bulls broke Jaguares streak 43-24, and with it almost certainly thier shot at a home semi?
Stormers also dealt Sharks chances a blow taking them 27-16RANK TEAM PLAYED WIN DRAW LOSS DIFF POINTS 1 Crusaders 15 13 0 2 210 58 2 Waratahs 15 9 1 5 121 44 3 Lions 15 8 0 7 57 41 4 Hurricanes 15 11 0 4 135 50 5 Chiefs 15 10 0 5 91 45 6 Highlanders 15 9 0 6 -14 40 7 Jaguares 15 9 0 6 1 38 8 Rebels 15 7 0 8 -15 35``` -
@taniwharugby If this is going to be the final table after next week's round: "poor Highlanders". Having to travel to Jo'burg for the QFs. Things can still change though.
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Am I correct in thinking that current top 7 are guaranteed QFists? Only Rebels could drop out of the 8?
Latter scenario if Shorks beat Jagulars and Highlanders deny them any points (or at least if the Shorks get 4 more points than the Rebs - there's still losing bps aren't there?)
Chiefs have uphill battle to pip Canes for home advantage.
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@booboo Yes, that's correct. In theory, even the Brumbies can still steal that final spot from the Rebels with a bonus point win over the Waratahs and the Rebels getting smashed by the Landers.
It's near impossible for the Chiefs to finish 4th. They'd need a bonus point win and score at least 45 more points than the Canes. If they score exactly 44 points more, they need to score 7 tries more than the Canes.
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Don't Chiefs need to win by 23 with a bonus point? i.e. 3 tries more. Not impossible - but why bother when you can rest players for a trip south.
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@arhs
If the Chiefs beat the Canes with a bonus point, they finish on equal points (50) and have an equal number of wins. According to the tiebreaking rules, in this situation, the team with the greatest points differential finishes on top.Currently, the Canes have a points diff of +135 and the Chiefs +91. Hence, that the Chiefs need a bonus point win in which they score at least 45 points more than the Canes. If they score 43 more points, the Canes will have a better points diff, and if they score 44 more points than the Canes, they are tied.
Then the tie will break by who has scored most tries in the round robin, currently Canes 62 and Chiefs 56, so Chiefs need to score 7 tries more than the Canes. If they score 5 more tries, Canes finis on top; if they score 6 more tries, they are still tied.
Then the tie will break by who has the greatest tries-difference, currently Canes +23 and Chiefs +12. The Chiefs would have to score 12 more tries than the Canes to prevail. If they're still tied, a coin toss will decide who finishis 4th and 5th.
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@stargazer said in SR18 the run to the finals:
@arhs
If the Chiefs beat the Canes with a bonus point, they finish on equal points (50) and have an equal number of wins. According to the tiebreaking rules, in this situation, the team with the greatest points differential finishes on top.Currently, the Canes have a points diff of +135 and the Chiefs +91. Hence, that the Chiefs need a bonus point win in which they score at least 45 points more than the Canes. If they score 43 more points, the Canes will have a better points diff, and if they score 44 more points than the Canes, they are tied.
Then the tie will break by who has scored most tries in the round robin, currently Canes 62 and Chiefs 56, so Chiefs need to score 7 tries more than the Canes. If they score 5 more tries, Canes finis on top; if they score 6 more tries, they are still tied.
Then the tie will break by who has the greatest tries-difference, currently Canes +23 and Chiefs +12. The Chiefs would have to score 12 more tries than the Canes to prevail. If they're still tied, a coin toss will decide who finishis 4th and 5th.
You're forgetting that every point the chiefs win by is a point the 'canes will lose by. So if the chiefs are +44 then the 'canes are -44. So a 23 point win will get the chiefs ahead on PD and a 22 point win will have them tied on PD.
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@Stargazer ditto the tries. 6 more will swing it in Chiefs favour.
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I don't expect either the Chiefs or Canes to be playing their best XV next Friday. Cooper has already said Cane will be rested, as will DMac, so MMac ain't going to lead the Chiefs to the promised land. I wouldn't risk BBBR either but maybe Laulala is available.
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@bovidae Cane may not even be available, this week or next
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@taniwharugby See my reply to you in the match thread.
