SR18 the run to the finals
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Roughly 3/4s of the way through the RR and getting time to look at where teams stand chances wise.
If you take the current top 8 as proven performers and therefore 'tough' games it is interesting to look at the draw ahead and see who has the easiest/hardest run from here.
Obviously rest of the NZ derbies play a big part and there are a couple of teams to really watch out for with regard to table position.
The Jaguares are very nicely placed to push the 3rd and 4th NZ teams (Highlanders and Chiefs) down the table. They have to play the Sharks twice yet but apart from that they have no other games against other 'tough' teams.
Chiefs have the hardest run with 4 'tough' games and really need to beat the Tahs to balance out against the Highlanders (both have games against Crusaders and Canes left as well as playing each other).
Lions also have only the Sharks left to play as a 'tough' game so will be aiming for a winning run and hoping the NZ derbies let them catch the Crusaders or Canes.I can't see any difference in the top four but Saders and Canes could swap places. Quite possible that the Jags could leap up to fifth though which, if they do, could mean no NZ derby in the quarters.
Will SANZAAR really like their new format to produce semi finals with all teams from one country? I think not.
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@crucial said in SR18 the run to the finals:
Chiefs have the hardest run with 4 'tough' games and really need to beat the Tahs to balance out against the Highlanders (both have games against Crusaders and Canes left as well as playing each other).
One advantage that the Chiefs have is that all their remaining games are at home, except for a trip to Suva to play the Highlanders. I'm not saying the games are going to be easy, but the players and coaches will prefer to be preparing at home rather than travelling.
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@crucial The Crusaders did!
In reality, only the Hurricanes could catch them anyway (Highlanders had the slimmest of slim chances). Canes still can overtake the Crusaders, but it's starting to enter the realms of "mathematical possibilities".
Canes have left themselves vulnerable to being run down by the Chiefs in the final round when those two play one another. In fact, any of the Highlanders, Chiefs or Canes can nab second spot if they win both their remaining games - though the Canes still have the box seat.
Big movers this weekend were the Jaguares, who now have the opportunity to top the SA Conference and, in fact, have their destiny in their own hands. They only need to win their two remain games both away vs Bulls and Sharks to win the conference. One win will guarantee at least a wildcard spot. However, if they lose both they'll probably miss out.
Sharks, however, may have plenty to play for - they've got themselves within range of the Rebels and have winnable games against the Stormers and the Jaguares to come. They'll probably need to win both - and get a likely favour from the Highlanders beating the Rebels.
I'm going to go with a couple of big calls in predicting the playoffs will be:
Crusaders vs Sharks
Waratahs vs Jaguares
Lions vs Highlanders
Chiefs vs Hurricanes -
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Where's @Duluth thread that got blown out of the water after 1 week?
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On no I made a multi game prediction and already have something wrong! The shame.
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@duluth said in SR18 the run to the finals:
On no I made a multi game prediction and already have something wrong! The shame.
Pithy
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@crucial said in SR18 the run to the finals:
We need to manipulate the table and take places 1,4,6 and 7
Yeah - if it ends up as I've predicted, we'll have three teams on one side of the draw and - if the Crusaders lose - a strong likelihood of the final being played offshore.
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Kieran Read called for an end to the retarded conference system. It's taken a lot of the interest away for me personally, the pointy end of the season is just a bloody shambles.
The international break is also stupid, I found myself struggling to give a shit about the weekends games. Just stops momentum right when things are meant to get interesting.
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@no-quarter said in SR18 the run to the finals:
Kieran Read called for an end to the retarded conference system. It's taken a lot of the interest away for me personally, the pointy end of the season is just a bloody shambles.
The international break is also stupid, I found myself struggling to give a shit about the weekends games. Just stops momentum right when things are meant to get interesting.
WTF do you know, you are just a fan, do you not know how hard they worked to put this format together??
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It's the last year with an international break, isn't it?
Anyway, good luck finding a format that will please everyone, especially the sponsors and broadcasters who keep the competition going with their money, and at the same time respecting player welfare by limiting the number of games and amount of travel.
Maybe I'm a rugby nerd, but I don't understand at all how people lose interest in SR when we're close to the business end of the comp. It's almost crunch time and getting more exciting by the week.
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@stargazer I expect like the teams lose momentum stopping for 3 weeks, fans do too after the ups/downs of the ABs over the period and now going back to super rugby (which has less appeal to me than M10 Cup anyway)
This system is a dogs arse...yeah I am sure they will never have one to please everyone, but I expect they should be able to do better than this format.
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@rocky-rockbottom Okay, so you're implying that some/many Blues supporters lose interest because their team isn't performing well and won't make the finals? Does that mean they only care about rugby if it's played by their own team (and their team goes well)?
Hmmm, my team was shit in the Mitre 10 Cup and has been so for years. That has been terribly frustrating to say the least, but I still enjoy watching games not involving my team, particularly finals games, because I like watching the sport and NZ teams.
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@Stargazer you are, without a shadow of a doubt, the biggest rugby nerd I have ever come across.
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@stargazer I havent watched the RWC final from 1991, 1999, 2003 or 2007
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@taniwharugby said in SR18 the run to the finals:
@stargazer I havent watched the RWC final from 1991, 1999, 2003 or 2007
what are these mythical things you speak of?
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@mariner4life the fairy folk of the world (England, Aus & SA) would have you believe the tournament actually went on after we finished
:smiling_face_with_open_mouth_closed_eyes: (even those mythical 3rd/4th playoffs werent real games) -
@crucial said in SR18 the run to the finals:
We need to manipulate the table and take places 1,4,6 and 7
IF the Jags can win both their remaining matches (Bulls, Sharks) and pick up 8 points AND the Chiefs and Highlanders only get one win each (quite feasible), Then the Jags will leapfrog them into 5th.
This could mean...Saders v Rebs/Sharks
Tahs v Highlanders
Lions v Chiefs
Canes v JagsSo, the Canes and Chiefs could go into the last round wanting the other team to finish higher and therefore avoid a SA trip.
I guess it's best for Chiefs to go all out for a home semi. They will have to put their eggs into beating the Canes and hope they can get through the Brumbies without DMac, BBBR and ALB
