Coronavirus - Overall
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I'm wondering if this graph (article was paywalled, so didn't read it) has something to do with this: https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/sep/19/take-care-with-claims-about-unvaccinated-case-rates-covid
E.g. they are using an estimated unvaccinated populations line from both ONS and PHE. -
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Don't rely on anecdotal evidence when there's real evidence that proves the efficacy of the vaccine.
The echo chamber that is the internet. Anecdotal evidence posing as empirical evidence and plenty of people willing to slurp it up
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@godder said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo while contracting Covid isn't perfect at preventing future infection, it is more effective than being vaccinated, although being vaccinated and infected at least once is the best future protection.
In that order
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@voodoo The graphs aren't that interesting - mainly because the author cherry picks and then plays with the scale to make things look more dramatic (eg. deaths/million. Sweden's around 1 Israel 2.8 but the axis makes it look much worse)
The article also has a graph showing how low Sweden's death rate is - and all the countries above are ones where the whole world knows they lost control at some point or another.
Thing is the whole article is based on a untruth - People never stop talking about fuclking Sweden. Anyone who is anti-lockdown writes yet another article about how fucking brilliant Sweden has been, doing exactly what the author says the world is doing. I must see 2-3 articles a week. Generally they do what this guy has done and accentuate the positive and ignore the negatives.
Wow Sweden is doing really well (now that most of western Europe has vaccinated and its been summer) and ignores the previous cock-ups.
It's not fake news - it's just slanted reporting. Opinion masquerading as fact.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Overall:
It's not fake news - it's just slanted reporting. Opinion masquerading as fact.
Sounds like modern media. What it does is open the door to genuine fake news, as you just don't trust what you read any more. Ask yourself: do you trust a headline to be read at face value any more? I sure as hell don't, you find out the headline writers are clickbait authors.
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Is showing just this part (in black box):
Spot on.
And the more important metric is 'excess mortality'. NZ had very low Covid deaths, and lower excess mortality last winter - but from what I saw, it seemed to come back in Summer as time caught up with the people who survived winter (predominantly the aged).
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From the Throwing Shit Against a Wall Department:
Gottlieb: 'Nobody knows' origins of six-foot social-distancing recommendation
Former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner Scott Gottlieb said on Sunday that "nobody knows" the origins of the six-foot social-distancing recommendation.
During an appearance on CBS’s “Face The Nation,” Gottlieb told host Margaret Brennan that the recommendation was arbitrary, saying that the Biden administration asked the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to change its guidelines from six feet to three feet in an effort to re-open schools last spring.
“Nobody knows where it came from. Most people assume that the six feet of distance, the recommendation for keeping six feet apart, comes out of some old studies related to flu, where droplets don't travel more than six feet,” Gottlieb told Brennan.
Gottlieb also said that the CDC’s initial social-distancing recommendation was 10 feet.
“So the compromise was around six feet. Now imagine if that detail had leaked out. Everyone would have said, 'This is the White House politically interfering with the CDC's judgment.' The CDC said 10 feet, it should be 10 feet, but 10 feet was no more right than six feet and ultimately became three feet,” Gottlieb said.
“But when it became three feet, the basis for the CDC's decision to ultimately revise it from six to three feet was a study that they conducted the prior fall. So they changed it in the spring.”
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But personally I do think Sweden's mask policies are probably ok, good, fair enough.
Reccommend rather than mandate.
90% of people do, just for social pressure reasons or even genuine health concerns. Once we have moved from elimination, 90% is probably enough to flatten curves.
Just looking at the streets in Wellington & Wairarapa (from my experiences), it is not mandatory but kazillions of people are wearing them, and there isn't even covid within about 600kms.
Admittedly. We've had it mandated on public transport for 8 months, and behaviour seems fine in my experience.
Just don't think we should exhaust energy on or politicise something that 90% will do anyway willingly or slightly grudgingly.
Definitely wouldn't suggest an outdoor mask mandate, personally. Which Israel's seems to have had.
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I'm wondering if this graph (article was paywalled, so didn't read it) has something to do with this: https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/sep/19/take-care-with-claims-about-unvaccinated-case-rates-covid
E.g. they are using an estimated unvaccinated populations line from both ONS and PHE.From the article:
After phe published its report, James Ward, a consultant, repeated its calculations using population estimates from the Office for National Statistics, which runs Britain’s census. This exercise reversed the pattern: cases became rarer for the jabbed than for the unjabbed below age 80, but more common above that age.Unlike the murky case numbers, the data on hospitalisations and deaths were reassuring. Within age groups, these outcomes were 67-90% less common among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated—a result similar to the 90% decline found in data from America released on September 10th. phe estimated that the jabs have prevented 112,000 deaths in Britain. The country’s official toll from covid-19 is 134,000.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo The graphs aren't that interesting - mainly because the author cherry picks and then plays with the scale to make things look more dramatic (eg. deaths/million. Sweden's around 1 Israel 2.8 but the axis makes it look much worse)
The article also has a graph showing how low Sweden's death rate is - and all the countries above are ones where the whole world knows they lost control at some point or another.
Thing is the whole article is based on a untruth - People never stop talking about fuclking Sweden. Anyone who is anti-lockdown writes yet another article about how fucking brilliant Sweden has been, doing exactly what the author says the world is doing. I must see 2-3 articles a week. Generally they do what this guy has done and accentuate the positive and ignore the negatives.
Wow Sweden is doing really well (now that most of western Europe has vaccinated and its been summer) and ignores the previous cock-ups.
It's not fake news - it's just slanted reporting. Opinion masquerading as fact.
Not sure I agree with all of that doggers. The scales look to me like they go as high as necessary. What I found particularly interesting though the difference between Germany and Israel. As for the graph showing "all the countries above are ones where the whole world knows they lost control at some point or another." I think that's kind of the point - that Sweden didn't really lose control (other than the oldies homes early on) despite a different approach
As for people talking about Sweden, I don't see much in the mainstream press here in Oz, cant speak for NZ or Europe. Certainly not from health or Government officials anyway!
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@kid-chocolate As you described it as shit that's exactly what that article is - a screaming pile of shit
Social distancing as a concept originated in the 1960's as a concept of social anthropology called proxemics and was later adopted by medical professionals.
You can argue the accuracy (particularly as it wasn't a medical definition) but the 2 metre definition has been around for 60 years. So when Gottlieb says 'Nobody knows' origins of six-foot social-distancing recommendation then he's either lying, stupid, lazy or any combination of the three.
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
But personally I do think Sweden's mask policies are probably ok, good, fair enough.
Reccommend rather than mandate.
90% of people do, just for social pressure reasons or even genuine health concerns. Once we have moved from elimination, 90% is probably enough to flatten curves.
Just looking at the streets in Wellington & Wairarapa (from my experiences), it is not mandatory but kazillions of people are wearing them, and there isn't even covid within about 600kms.
Admittedly. We've had it mandated on public transport for 8 months, and behaviour seems fine in my experience.
Just don't think we should exhaust energy on or politicise something that 90% will do anyway willingly or slightly grudgingly.
Definitely wouldn't suggest an outdoor mask mandate, personally. Which Israel's seems to have had.
Masks are gooooone here in Sydney. Obvs people have to wear them inside or on public transport, but I reckon you'd be lucky to see more than 5% of people wearing them outside now. I was at Balmoral and Manly beach over the weekend, barely a mask in sight as people picnic, walk, chat to their mates.
Outdoor masks are just idiotic.
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@voodoo I am sure if you want to find it you will, but yeah I dont see much in NZ re Sweden, although I tend to scan headlines only more often than not.
Right now I reckon >75% of people I see wear masks, but follow them into a shop and not all of them scan...go figure
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo I am sure if you want to find it you will, but yeah I dont see much in NZ re Sweden, although I tend to scan headlines only more often than not.
Well of course, me too, if I actually read the articles, I would have no time left to post authoritative thoughts about them on the interweb!
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I'd be careful comparing Sweden except to other countries in Scandinavia and maybe the Nordic area. I lived there for years, Sweden tend to socially distance naturally even without Covid, seriously.
Plus immunity via natural infection may be higher in Sweden (they are well known for having let it run from early on) than Israel, but I don't have the stats to prove that.
What I do know is that official stats show 90%+ of the UK (adult??) population now has CoVid antibodies so that's about 20% greater than the vaccination rate.
Even so the problem is you have a remaining 10%-to-say-conservatively-15% of the UK population, which suggests up to 6-10 million people who are unvaccinated/have no prior immunity. And vaccines are only stopping spread of infection in 50-60% of cases with Delta in those vaccinated. It's as infectious as hell.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Outdoor masks are just idiotic.
Indeed. I've seen reasonable articles on mask effectiveness reducing spread to others in enclosed spaces, comparisons of different types cloth masks vs standard medical vs "ideal" N95 etc.
I've never seen any science justifying them outdoors ... and it has never been mandated or even recommended outdoors in the UK.
I respect elderly people wearing them outdoors though I think it's probably more a psychological self-defense mechanism so I don't blame them. And I might cross the street to avoid a heavy-breathing jogger tbh.
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ive said before, i can really only assume the idea of a mask mandate outside like we have in Vic is more around people not forgetting to put them on when going in and out and just touching them in general as we were advised not to do, once outside wear one. but the authorities havent said as much so they might just be doing it "because"
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
But personally I do think Sweden's mask policies are probably ok, good, fair enough.
Reccommend rather than mandate.
90% of people do, just for social pressure reasons or even genuine health concerns. Once we have moved from elimination, 90% is probably enough to flatten curves.
Just looking at the streets in Wellington & Wairarapa (from my experiences), it is not mandatory but kazillions of people are wearing them, and there isn't even covid within about 600kms.
Admittedly. We've had it mandated on public transport for 8 months, and behaviour seems fine in my experience.
Just don't think we should exhaust energy on or politicise something that 90% will do anyway willingly or slightly grudgingly.
Definitely wouldn't suggest an outdoor mask mandate, personally. Which Israel's seems to have had.
Masks are gooooone here in Sydney. Obvs people have to wear them inside or on public transport, but I reckon you'd be lucky to see more than 5% of people wearing them outside now. I was at Balmoral and Manly beach over the weekend, barely a mask in sight as people picnic, walk, chat to their mates.
Outdoor masks are just idiotic.
TBH, I've noticed a bit of a resurgence here in the city. It could be because I live in an area of low vaccination and increasing cases, but even when I was picnicking in the inner west on Sunday I noticed that most people wore masks until they got to their spot.
It's just you entitled northern beachers bucking the trend it seems.
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@kiwiwomble when we have clients come into our building when we meet them we are supposed to wear a mask, the amount of times I walk out to reception and then have to turn around and grab one from my desk!
I am quite surprised how many I see wearing them here when walking outside or around town.