Coronavirus - Overall
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
It's one thing to have 16 confirmed cases, but another thing entirely to allow a planeload of 600 likely infected people onto our shores.
What makes them likely? The low level of confirmed cases thus far? You do know we can screen for it on arrival and treat them in existing hospitals like a proper first world nation?
Particularly given since it was reported it doesn't seem to be any worse than influenza both in terms of contagiousness and virulence:
CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
You make a compelling case for not evacuating anyone. Why bother, won't make a lick of difference, infection rate very low etc. etc.
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@rotated said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
It's one thing to have 16 confirmed cases, but another thing entirely to allow a planeload of 600 likely infected people onto our shores.
What makes them likely? The low level of confirmed cases thus far? You do know we can screen for it on arrival and treat them in existing hospitals like a proper first world nation?
Particularly given since it was reported it doesn't seem to be any worse than influenza both in terms of contagiousness and virulence:
CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
You make a compelling case for not evacuating anyone. Why bother, won't make a lick of difference, infection rate very low etc. etc.
Well that's not my argument, but whatever.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@rotated said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@barbarian said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
It's one thing to have 16 confirmed cases, but another thing entirely to allow a planeload of 600 likely infected people onto our shores.
What makes them likely? The low level of confirmed cases thus far? You do know we can screen for it on arrival and treat them in existing hospitals like a proper first world nation?
Particularly given since it was reported it doesn't seem to be any worse than influenza both in terms of contagiousness and virulence:
CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.
You make a compelling case for not evacuating anyone. Why bother, won't make a lick of difference, infection rate very low etc. etc.
Well that's not my argument, but whatever.
Clearly. But it's a fine line to walk - serious enough for a government led evacuation, not serious enough to take precautions in releasing them into the general populous.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@jegga so insensitive!
Why is the race relations bloke boring is with his opinion on it?
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I doubt Meng Foon really was “ sick to his stomach “ after hearing about the ads .
They’ve redone the promotion after his whining“He had reworked the post and uploaded a picture of a Corona bottle wearing a protective mask. "Let's be honest, there are worse things you can catch in Hamilton. Coronas still $6.50 all summer long", it says.”
Nice
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Any update on the possible severity of the disease?
Old mate at work was proclaiming the RO (I understand that's the correct term) is 5 with 10% mortality.
Not sure where he got that from (and I'm inclined to be doubtful of some of his sources/proclamations), and I couldn't find any info on CDC or WHO website. Probably coz I didn't know where to look and am not a competent googla.
Most search results were hot takes on sending patients to Christmas Island, or that people were trapped in Wigan, or there is another case found somewhere in Aus.
Would appreciate any wisdom from the TSF hive mind.
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Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
Background
The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP.
Methods
We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number.
Results
Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9).
Conclusions
On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.)
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First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States
An outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) that began in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly, with cases now confirmed in multiple countries. We report the first case of 2019-nCoV infection confirmed in the United States and describe the identification, diagnosis, clinical course, and management of the case, including the patient’s initial mild symptoms at presentation with progression to pneumonia on day 9 of illness. This case highlights the importance of close coordination between clinicians and public health authorities at the local, state, and federal levels, as well as the need for rapid dissemination of clinical information related to the care of patients with this emerging infection.
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Reassuring NZH headlines today:
People buying Dettol by the box at Auckland supermarket
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12305141NZ man in China says people fighting for food, reselling used masks
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12305122Fuckme, $50 dollars for a used 10-cent mask pulled out of the garbage!!
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"Coronavirus: People buying Dettol by the box at Auckland supermarket"
It all changes so swiftly! - last night at 6:00 I heard an apology by some Heath Department wallah here about earlier announcements recommending Dettol as some sort of barrier protection against IsuzuBelletVirus.
He said it was effective for some previous strain but not for the modern, popular, progressive version.
The anxious buyers will have to all line up again for an anxious refund.
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@Mick-Gold-Coast-QLD said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
"Coronavirus: People buying Dettol by the box at Auckland supermarket"
It all changes so swiftly! - last night at 6:00 I heard an apology by some Heath Department wallah here about earlier announcements recommending Dettol as some sort of barrier protection against IsuzuBelletVirus.
He said it was effective for some previous strain but not for the modern, popular, progressive version.
The anxious buyers will have to all line up again for an anxious refund.
The shareholders of the company that makes dettol are super pleased