Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
The genome tracing shows that this outbreak has no relation to any other known traces. That tells me that if it came directly from a returnee it they have not been sick themselves and they didn’t test positive.
That would be fine except for the fact they don't have DNA samples for about 20% of those that have tested positive for COVID at the border.
So the whole we have tested everyone and there isn't a match and so it must have been on frozen beef - don't blame us - it was an act of God, is incredibly spurious and is just a bald faced attempt to spin the story to deflect warranted criticism.
Might as well say there are no Maori in NZ because the 80% we looked into didn't include any Maori.
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@Mokey said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo more like the civil war when first case in another region is announced 'linked to the Auckland cluster'
It will certainly be linked to Auckland.
I haven't seen the news over the weekend are they still getting new cases? On the upwards or downwards?
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
The genome tracing shows that this outbreak has no relation to any other known traces. That tells me that if it came directly from a returnee it they have not been sick themselves and they didn’t test positive.
That would be fine except for the fact they don't have DNA samples for about 20% of those that have tested positive for COVID at the border.
So the whole we have tested everyone and there isn't a match and so it must have been on frozen beef - don't blame us - it was an act of God, is incredibly spurious and is just a bald faced attempt to spin the story to deflect warranted criticism.
Might as well say there are no Maori in NZ because the 80% we looked into didn't include any Maori.
Isn't it the RNA of the actual test swabs themselves?
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@Mokey said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo more like the civil war when first case in another region is announced 'linked to the Auckland cluster'
I know that plenty of people in Queenstown are highly pissed off at the Jafas that skipped down there. If that causes a spread there will be demands for a Cook Strait border.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial I thought it was RNA but Google told me it was DNA - either way apparently 20% are unable to be tested. Heard it on NR about a week ago. They (MoH) said wouldn't be able to be genome tested as they didn't have samples for 20%
I hadn't heard that. Will try and find out more.
They talk about RNA of the virus though.
Either way those found positive at the border are isolated. We are still suggesting that someone passed testing and was released from quarantine to spread it even though they themselves haven't shown up.There have been border problems. I'm not trying to downplay those at all. I'm simply saying that this linking of those problems to the Auckland outbreak are being done from a basis of guesswork and that they don't hold up to scrutiny.
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@Crucial No what I'm saying is that I find the prospect that one of the 20% where they don't have a sample to genome test somehow infected someone who took it out into the community is more likely than we have the second ever recorded case globally of someone getting infected from frozen food.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial No what I'm saying is that I find the prospect that one of the 20% where they don't have a sample to genome test somehow infected someone who took it out into the community is more likely than we have the second ever recorded case globally of someone getting infected from frozen food.
The frozen food thread was dismissed ages ago. It did need to be investigated though.
I'm still looking for that 20% thing (not saying it isn't true)
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I am still struggling to find reference to not having 20% of case material to Genome Sequence.
What I can find is that about 6 weeks ago only about 20% of cases had been sequenced and added to the database. About 2 weeks ago that had increased to around two thirds so maybe the reference is that we have only sequenced about 80% so far.
However, that doesn't mean that only 80% of managed isolation cases have been sequenced. It appears from some reports that the sequencing is being done in order of likely risk. That is how the security guard case was linked to someone else in the facility (that he didn't have direct contact with) and was eliminated as being a cause of community spread.
I can't confirm it but all incoming cases within a infection timeframe would have likely been sequenced as part of trying to trace the origin.
As for the frozen thing they got the sequences of the cases in Melbourne from the same company to help as the swabs with traces at the facility were not quality enough to get RNA
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial Both Adern and Hipkins have mentioned the frozen food scenario in the last three days.
In what context? That they are circling back for another look at the possibilty? That it can't be dismissed entirely?
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial nah subtly suggesting it might be how the latest outbreak started but with "the we will never know" caveat. As I said - total spin
Fair enough.
Back to the point though, I'm still not seeing any evidence at all that links this outbreak to the border failings.
There are hints that people think there is a cover up or that the govt is deliberately not investigating some possibilities but again, they are unfounded.My whole point is not to deflect from the govt but to drive discussion around how we might go about living in this shit situation without looking to blame others all the time.
It is narrow minded to keep doing only what the govt says to protect ourselves then blaming them. Strangely more shit is being thrown on an unsupported argument at the govt than is at the fuckwits that skipped the Auckland lockdown because 'the govt wasn't good enough to stop us'There is often a hell of a lot of talk about freedoms then proof that those freedoms can't be held responsibly by some.
The govt has said that they don't want to inflict L3/4 type lockdowns. That the policy and plan has always been to target outbreaks and stop them quickly with L2 type rules and tracing. However that requires cooperation from the public.
'Save us from the idiots but don't encroach on my freedom' seems to be the general line (as stirred up by twats like Hosking)
Which is it? Take some personal responsibility for everyone's good or do your own thing and expect someone else to stop you?
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@dogmeat I have found what I think you heard on RNZ and it was from one of the scientists that is working on the sequencing.
It is actually that around 40% of the managed isolation cases can't be sequenced because the test samples don't have enough materiel to work with. Apparently the tests can detect amounts of the virus much smaller than is required for the genome stuff.
So yes, there remains a possibility of spread leaking from within that 40%. This was proven possible by the security guard who was unlucky enough to touch a lift surface just after an infected person.
That case also showed that unless the isolation rules are draconian and really unworkable things will happen and the best option is to be ready to catch it quickly -
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@pakman Not really no. It was suggested that there was no evidence the virus came through the border. My point is there isn’t a third alternative, and even the second one is barely plausible.
I’m happy to keep my mind open that the virus never came in through the border and was still in the community all along but if that is true the government should be shame-walked through the streets.
There’s a big difference between the virus coming through the gaps in the border process and coming through the border in a manner that hasn’t even been identified as a risk.
The government and their health ministry is responsible for the border processes AND identifying the risks. Making the distinction you have is tantamount to saying the worse job they do at identifying the risks the more forgiving we have to be for them screwing stuff up. OK, things happened that they didn't expect. That is no excuse for not having contingencies in place, and robust plans to let them know when to invoke them and how. All of this is routine for any one of thousands of project managers all over the country, but somehow it is beyond the government with all their resources. The bottom line is they are shit at planning and therefore shit at delivery.
That is why the frozen food theory was investigated.
Pretty tough to be throwing blame at unknown factors.No, the blame is for leaving the factors unknown. For being complacent. Then using the complacency as an excuse. What did they spend the time in L1 doing? Giving each other high-fives and reach-arounds? Because they sure didn't use it learning. As for the frozen food theory, of course we don't know but Occam's razor tells us that the shonky controls around the border is likely to be the reason.
The genome tracing shows that this outbreak has no relation to any other known traces. That tells me that if it came directly from a returnee it they have not been sick themselves and they didn’t test positive.
Once again, why isn't it known? Your theoretical returnee shouldn't have made it through the border restrictions without compulsory isolation that would have rendered their carriage of the virus moot, because by the time they were released into the community their infectiousness would have passed. That is what people understand as being the reason for quarantine. That this didn't happen is squarely on the people who are responsible for protecting the borders.
So, what are you proposing? A complete border closure? That seems the only solution to avoid these unknown incursions.
No, I'm proposing a border that has controls tight enough that it might as well be impermeable. We were told categorically that tests at 3 and 12 days were required. Do them, no exceptions. People who come into contact with people who are technically on the other side of the border - test them routinely. Have severe penalties for wilful breaches. And stop using terms like unknown incursions. They are intended to suggest "couldn't know" when the truth seems more likely to be "didn't look".
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@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Save us from the idiots but don't encroach on my freedom' seems to be the general line (as stirred up by twats like Hosking)
Maybe the idiots are the ones who go along with all this total lock down. For a mild virus that's killed a small number without other illnesses (including the US).
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@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
All of this is routine for any one of thousands of project managers all over the country, but somehow it is beyond the government with all their resources.
This is not true for new major projects with a short time frame to get everything set up. esp with it being lead by people who likely (Ministers) have nil project management experience. But even those that do it often doesn't go smoothly. But mistakes are often not exposed as they are with this situation. And over time the issues are rectified. Including staff replacements
You expect far too much based on the myth that companies work like clockwork. They don't.
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A few comments to make. One about the justification from the government about some only have one test in isolation, and that it wasn't a big deal. The current tests have a 30% false negative/positive rate, so you need two tests to get that percentage down.
Letting people out with with just one test is basically closing your eyes and hoping.
Second, I find it interesting watching the daily briefings how the government PR has positioned Aucklanders as the "other". If it wasn't for these irresponsible Aucklanders going to church and having parties we would be fine.
You can see how successful that messaging has been in Crucial's posts, talking about Cook Strait borders, etc. Convieniently takes the crosshairs off the governments woeful handling of isolating the border.
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@Winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
All of this is routine for any one of thousands of project managers all over the country, but somehow it is beyond the government with all their resources.
This is not true for new major projects with a short time frame to get everything set up. esp with it being lead by people who likely (Ministers) have nil project management experience. But even those that do it often doesn't go smoothly. But mistakes are often not exposed as they are with this situation. And over time the issues are rectified. Including staff replacements
You expect far too much based on the myth that companies work like clockwork. They don't.
There you go again, arguing against things that nobody said. Don't you get tired of it?