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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@Rembrandt said in Brexit:
EU don't want a no-deal. I'll be extremely concerned if this revoke art 50 gains momentum.
It won't happen. It may cause a debate in the commons, but there is no way it will be revoked. May has been extremely clear about that, and no other politician will be prepared to do it either.
I hope you are right here, there is a lot of anger out there and if events go a particular way I'd be very concerned about violence spilling out.
@Rembrandt said in Brexit:
Well the few remainer friends that haven't yet disowned me for my Brexit ideals are feverishly spreading this around right now.
Out of interest, are your remainer friends UK based? And are they, like me, and I suspect unlike you, potentially facing issues around their circumstances in the event of a poorly run Brexit?
They are Uk based, childless, working primarily in government jobs, they are also the same folk calling all brexiteers racists & stupid. I don't have a lot of sympathy for them but I do for people like yourself who can discuss the issues and can see that there is at least some merit to the brexiteer argument and understand that simply cancelling brexit is not a realistic option.
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@Rembrandt No need for sympathy. A disorderly Brexit will make things harder for sure, but it won't make things catastrophic. Thats not the case for all.
I'm happy to come on here and debate, as I'm actually interested in the views of people who it won't affect, as well as those that it will. Obviously makes the objective thinking somewhat easier.
I can understand, however, why people may be getting pissed off reading views of borderline excitement about a no-deal Brexit from people who it won't really affect, when they are regularly not only reading in the media about the fallout, but also receiving mails from the top brass at work about what they are actively doing which does reduce their job security.
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@Bones Probably in part that I was absolutely anti-brexit at the time of the vote and also a subscriber to the racist & stupid narrative pushed in the media I formerly trusted. Bloody ashamed of my attitude back then.
The EU's approach to the mass economic migration is appalling and their treatment of nations such as Hungry and some of the eastern bloc where citizens overwhelmingly did not want such migration showed the authoritarianism of the eu. Recent talk of an EU army only enforces my worry that the EU has become corrupt.
I've also been following Carl Benjamin (Sargon of akkad) who has made some terrific arguments for Brexit and also having met him I don't doubt his integrity. His interviews at EU parliament I found especially enlightening.
I see the EU for the most part as unelected, overpaid, out of touch beurocrats who undermines a nations ability to rule for themselves and for the needs of their own people.
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@Bones I'm into politics, am a UK citizen, still have ties to the country and very recently was considering a return. From a moral standpoint I have concerns about where Britain is heading as I point out (probably too frequently) in the British politics thread.
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@Rembrandt said in Brexit:
@Bones I'm into politics, am a UK citizen, still have ties to the country and very recently was considering a return. From a moral standpoint I have concerns about where Britain is heading as I point out (probably too frequently) in the British politics thread.
Whaaaaat?! I had no idea
Fair enough then!
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@Rembrandt said in Brexit:
@Bones Probably in part that I was absolutely anti-brexit at the time of the vote and also a subscriber to the racist & stupid narrative pushed in the media I formerly trusted. Bloody ashamed of my attitude back then.
The EU's approach to the mass economic migration is appalling and their treatment of nations such as Hungry and some of the eastern bloc where citizens overwhelmingly did not want such migration showed the authoritarianism of the eu. Recent talk of an EU army only enforces my worry that the EU has become corrupt.
I've also been following Carl Benjamin (Sargon of akkad) who has made some terrific arguments for Brexit and also having met him I don't doubt his integrity. His interviews at EU parliament I found especially enlightening.
I see the EU for the most part as unelected, overpaid, out of touch beurocrats who undermines a nations ability to rule for themselves and for the needs of their own people.
Interesting, I feel exactly the same way, voted remain initially but would vote leave now in protest if the government were stupid enough to call a second referendum. The widespread sharing of this revoke article 50 petition has really annoyed me, as if we could cancel Brexit now anyway and return to working with the EU after burning so many bridges.
As a disclaimer I am a UK citizen and live there currently, but get paid partially in USD so a weaker pound is great for me personally. That's not the reason I've swung from remain to leave, but unlike most people a no deal Brexit wouldn't exactly cost me.
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@Rembrandt right, but what effect does it have on you?
I think it's very difficult to know what significant effect leaving the EU will have on most people. There are certain industries that we can reasonably predict will bear some consequences, for instance is is entirely possible that many major financial institutions will relocate HQs from London to either Paris or Frankfurt. That will have an immediate effect on jobs and potentially a longer term effect on London as a financial player. Farming is another area with the loss of EU subsidies that are available and of course the cheap migrant labour. I am also concerned about the NHS which has relied on a high level of immigrant staffing in the last few years. All of those are of concern but the reality is that we do not know quite what the deal will be and what the long term effect will be either.
On a personal level I can only see some fairly shallow consequences, mostly around travel and convenience.
As to benefits, the obvious ones are control of our own lawmaking and cost savings. Sadly I have no confidence in our lawmakers not to simply parrot UK legislation and I certainly don't have any confidence in our Government (whoever they might be) to shed red tape and utilise any possible savings in a meaningful way.
This may, to some, make me look like a rabid remainer but in truth I am lukewarm and can see potential for both good and bad in leaving but I feel that the uncertainty tips the balance to remain.
However we will not know for sure for many years if at all whether or not it was a good thing or bad. We can have an opinion on it, but we will not know. I don't think it is really measurable.
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@Rembrandt right, but what effect does it have on you?
I don't see why NZers need to be altruistic and consider others in thinking about the short-term invoncenience/economic uncertainty of a handful when it comes to Brexit. NZ (and other commonwealth countries) got shafted in 1973 and have suffered declining economic and cultural ties with the UK since (which has still continued this decade)?
If even a tenth of that comes back post-Brexit - happy days for us.
The long-term benefits and flexibility leaving the union now gives them when things ultimately hit the fan, far outweigh any short term economic disruption.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
@Rembrandt right, but what effect does it have on you?
I think it's very difficult to know what significant effect leaving the EU will have on most people. There are certain industries that we can reasonably predict will bear some consequences, for instance is is entirely possible that many major financial institutions will relocate HQs from London to either Paris or Frankfurt. That will have an immediate effect on jobs and potentially a longer term effect on London as a financial player. Farming is another area with the loss of EU subsidies that are available and of course the cheap migrant labour. I am also concerned about the NHS which has relied on a high level of immigrant staffing in the last few years. All of those are of concern but the reality is that we do not know quite what the deal will be and what the long term effect will be either.
On a personal level I can only see some fairly shallow consequences, mostly around travel and convenience.
As to benefits, the obvious ones are control of our own lawmaking and cost savings. Sadly I have no confidence in our lawmakers not to simply parrot UK legislation and I certainly don't have any confidence in our Government (whoever they might be) to shed red tape and utilise any possible savings in a meaningful way.
This may, to some, make me look like a rabid remainer but in truth I am lukewarm and can see potential for both good and bad in leaving but I feel that the uncertainty tips the balance to remain.
However we will not know for sure for many years if at all whether or not it was a good thing or bad. We can have an opinion on it, but we will not know. I don't think it is really measurable.
There is a big difference between an orderly Brexit and a no-deal Brexit. I don't think there is much difference between an orderly Brexit and remain, personally.
Remain shouldn't even be on the table now.
The London financial jobs one is interesting. In theory, you are 100% right, and a lot of the less commercially skilled jobs are on one way trips out of here. But that has been the case for many years, jobs were being offloaded in 2002 to various other parts of the globe when I lived here then. However, in my current role, I've been working with continental Europe counterparts on a daily basis, and I can see why London has been as successful as it is. European employment law just doesn't work with financial services & European living culture isn't either. It's a complete waste of time calling nobody in Europe after 4pm Lon, as they have all left the office. Same as calling before 7:30am.
I am in daily discussions between C-Suite (move jobs to Europe) and the tier beneath who wish to continue to build and grow in London regardless. The upper brass work in theory, the next tier work in reality.
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I'll admit that I have enjoyed an embarrassing amount of schadenfreude about the process and potential difficulties for the UK, simply because my parents were nearly put out of business in the early 70s. They ended up selling the family farm when exports were affected, even as subsidies came to try and help them out - then went out as the country nearly went bankrupt - while interest rates went above 20%! So fuck the UK.
Sorry, that's out my system now.
Hopefully, there will be a good trade deal for NZ farmers.
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I'll admit that I have enjoyed an embarrassing amount of schadenfreude about the process and potential difficulties for the UK, simply because my parents were nearly put out of business in the early 70s. They ended up selling the family farm when exports were affected, even as subsidies came to try and help them out - then went out as the country nearly went bankrupt - while interest rates went above 20%! So fuck the UK.
Sorry, that's out my system now.
Hopefully, there will be a good trade deal for NZ farmers.
It's funny isn't it? Imagine if there had been the same level of campaigning back in 73 with the then Brexiteers suggesting staying in the UK would bankrupt our cousins down under. Personally I think that would have a been a very good emotional tug. (NB: Tug in this instance does not mean what @mariner4life or @MN5 think it means).
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
She hasn't covered herself in glory to date has she?
That said, we are where we are, and her comments on people being pissed off with MPs and just wanting to get on with things was spot on.
As for Corbyn, who's spent the last year preaching on the need to reach out and get a consensus on a deal, walking out on May's party leaders meeting because a Labour defector was in the room.... Jesus wept.
I'm happy that Corbyn if showing everyone just what kind of pathetic leader he would make. There is still a danger of an election and the more Corbyn looks like a poor option the better. Brexit + backward policies will be even more of a disaster.
As for 'just get on with it' we come back to the big problem that caused all of this in fighting and inaction - what is 'it'. All very well trotting out 'leave means leave' and 'Brexit means Brexit' but there are obvious complexities that need decisions made that aren't quite that simple.
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Interesting snippet on the radio news this morning from an EU spokesman, unfortunately I did not catch the name. He spelled out the agreement reached and listed the three options the UK now has:-
Extend Brexit until May 22nd dependent on the current deal getting parliamentary approval next week
Extend Brexit to April 11th assuming no parliamentary approvalUK Revoke Article 50
Which would imply that this has been discussed as an option with Theresa May. Hmmm.
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As for 'just get on with it' we come back to the big problem that caused all of this in fighting and inaction - what is 'it'
This is how I see it. Apologies for length.
The "it" was actually very clear in 2016 - voting Leave meant exiting the Single Market, Customs Union, ECJ & ending free movement. Loads of video/articles from Remainers like Vince Cable, Corbyn, Heseltine, etc, etc to confirm this.
Most people naively believed MPs would respect the referendum result ,and implement "it. There would be some debate about timing, trade deals with the EU and sensible integration of EU policies etc. (I accept a few clowns said everything would be easy...). Possibly some debate that it might be advantageous - despite the Referendum result - to be in a Customs Union in some circumstances or for a while. I voted Remain and that's how i expected things to pan out. How naive we all were.
My guess is that "it" will be a Customs Union with the EU, voted in as a safe, option to keep foreign-controlled manufacturing facilities intact. I don't expect there will be much, if any, discussion of the downsides of outsourcing UK trade policy to the EU. E.g, the NHS being opened up to US healthcare companies as a result of a EU/US trade deal a la TTP.
The best way forward could well be a referendum on what sort of deal we exit with. But that's too sensible for one side of the HoC and the other side would need to respect the referendum result.
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As for 'just get on with it' we come back to the big problem that caused all of this in fighting and inaction - what is 'it'. All very well trotting out 'leave means leave' and 'Brexit means Brexit' but there are obvious complexities that need decisions made that aren't quite that simple.
The "just get on with it" sentiment I think is more about a mindset and approach to negotations/preperations for an exit rather than a specific plan.
It would be very fucking strange if after three years of tumultuous separation/divorce proceedings the party who "I know I decided unequivocally to leave you, but now I'm concerned this alimony thing is going to comprimise the next five years of my financial life so maybe we can make this work?"
A divorce is not a financial windfall.
Get on with it means leave, seperate, go. VM's description of what 'it' is, is spot on IMO. In a decision between May's Deal and No Deal the answer should be obvious - go, get the fuck out and worry about the details later.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
UK Revoke Article 50
"Revoke Article 50", "have another referendum" I just can't get my head around the utter stupidity of people who think this would resolve anything.
Don't these MP's think? Do they expect the 17.2m who voted to leave to simply shrug their shoulders and accept staying in the EU or to respect the result of a 2nd referendum if the vote is to remain? Dangerous naivety of a staggering degree.
PM May may have fucked things up but she hasn't anything like the self-indulgence and contempt for voters whole swathes of MPs have.
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As for 'just get on with it' we come back to the big problem that caused all of this in fighting and inaction - what is 'it'. All very well trotting out 'leave means leave' and 'Brexit means Brexit' but there are obvious complexities that need decisions made that aren't quite that simple.
The "just get on with it" sentiment I think is more about a mindset and approach to negotations/preperations for an exit rather than a specific plan.
It would be very fucking strange if after three years of tumultuous separation/divorce proceedings the party who "I know I decided unequivocally to leave you, but now I'm concerned this alimony thing is going to comprimise the next five years of my financial life so maybe we can make this work?"
A divorce is not a financial windfall.
Get on with it means leave, seperate, go. VM's description of what 'it' is, is spot on IMO. In a decision between May's Deal and No Deal the answer should be obvious - go, get the fuck out and worry about the details later.
….and we come full circle to Northern Ireland.
(the 'details' aren't insignificant or quickly remedied either)Once again, as we see over and over at the moment, partisan type arguments whereby extreme views are painted as the views of all that take a 'side' in order to ridicule or shout down sensible debate.
Mention no deal hardships or difficulties and the cries of 'scaremonger' ring out and then counter claims of empty shops and blocked roads get said.
It is totally irresponsible for anyone with a public mouthpiece on this topic to dismiss or hide the very real difficulties and hardships people will face with no transition period and a chance to work through the issues.
Goods from Europe WILL likely increase in price as WTO rules state that no preference can be given.
British farmers will have to offload their product domestically as it will be over priced in Europe
A year ago 5,500 UK financial businesses relied on EU passporting rights that generated £9B to the UK. Some of those will have either upped sticks already or set up subsidiaries to do their EU work but the fact remains that a no deal will simply cut that cord altogether.
That's just a couple of facts that aren't scaremongering. Others would be loss of easy movement for business and leisure travel. The French border control have already thrown their toys out the cot over the extra workload and the official advice is not to try and Eurostar back from Paris because you simply wont get through control in time for your train.
Loads and loads of little things that a part of general UK life and taken for granted with regard to Europe. eg no phone roaming charges, no geoblocking, holiday and flight rules regarding cancellations and compensation. Currently about 15% of flights being sold in the UK may have to be cancelled as the landing rights for newly added flights are 'up in the air'
No, the sun will still come up and try and peak through the cloudy skies but instead of sweeping statements on both sides surely the impacts should be being made very clear to people.
Brexit