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@MajorRage Brexit Party still polling about 13%. Watch that go up if Brexit delayed beyond October.
Farage has promised not to stand against Conservative MPs who voted against Withdrawal Agreement three times and promise not to support any deal.
Rumour has it that Farage is preparing to stand in Uxbridge, Johnson's own constituency. Farage is very skillful at positioning always a bit to the right of the Tories.
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Problems there.
- Trump doesn't really like free trade and resents UK trade surplus with US.
- Deal would need to be approved by House. Democrats in House won't support a deal if UK breaks Good Friday Agreement.
- Deal would need 67 votes in the Senate where again the Democrats will back Ireland.
On point 1, I think his dislike for Macron, Merkel, and EU commision outweighs anything else. He'd love to get one over them. I've just finished his book, one thing that strikes me he doesn't mind losing out a bit financially in order to stand up for what he thinks is right, especially against whom he views as bullies.
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If the political class don't want something to happen, then it's hard for it to happen.
Agreed - and interesting stats!
The thing about a referendum, is that it is generally not legally binding. So the sitting government can choose to ignore its outcome if not what they wanted - obviously with the accompanying risks to their future power hopes.
So a referendum is "getting a sense of what people want" as opposed to what must then legally be done.
This bit is often ignored by Brexiteers in their arguments with the Remoaners when they seem to hold that the referendum is some legally binding moment / declaration.But the fun twist with the Brexit referendum though, was if I recall correctly, that the government of the time had promised - pre the referendum - to implement the outcome... So they morally (although not legally) bound themselves to a non-binding vote. Cue the circus.
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@Billy-Webb said in Brexit:
So a referendum is "getting a sense of what people want" as opposed to what must then legally be done.
This bit is often ignored by Brexiteers in their arguments with the Remoaners when they seem to hold that the referendum is some legally binding moment / declaration.But the fun twist with the Brexit referendum though, was if I recall correctly, that the government of the time had promised - pre the referendum - to implement the outcome... So they morally (although not legally) bound themselves to a non-binding vote. Cue the circus.
The trouble with that stance is not only did the government say it would be implemented but many, if not all of the freelancing conservative MPs were on the record saying they would too. This also puts aside there has been a general election in the interim where conservative candidates ran on a platform of delivering Brexit.
I haven't really heard this point made before (at least at this late stage, maybe in the immediate aftermath of the vote), because even the modest ardent remainer accepts that any avenue to reversing Brexit would need to go through a second referendum.
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God Femi is painful the way he just shouts over people and demands they answer his "yes/no" question with no tolerance of any nuance. FFS who chants "name one, name one" over and over at someone and expects to have a reasonable discussion? Moron.
Left at 2.55
What a knob
Femi's throries are facts, UKIP guy's opinions are not answering the question.
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@Billy-Webb said in Brexit:
So a referendum is "getting a sense of what people want" as opposed to what must then legally be done.
This bit is often ignored by Brexiteers in their arguments with the Remoaners when they seem to hold that the referendum is some legally binding moment / declaration.But the fun twist with the Brexit referendum though, was if I recall correctly, that the government of the time had promised - pre the referendum - to implement the outcome... So they morally (although not legally) bound themselves to a non-binding vote. Cue the circus.
The trouble with that stance is not only did the government say it would be implemented but many, if not all of the freelancing conservative MPs were on the record saying they would too. This also puts aside there has been a general election in the interim where conservative candidates ran on a platform of delivering Brexit.
I haven't really heard this point made before (at least at this late stage, maybe in the immediate aftermath of the vote), because even the modest ardent remainer accepts that any avenue to reversing Brexit would need to go through a second referendum.
I think the hope was that the referendum would be very close, but lose. And this would be enough for the EU to budge on their freedom of movement policies, which is arguably the biggest issue with the EU principle as a whole.
Nothing wrong with Spanish, Italians, Dutch, French citizens having unequivocal freedom to move around and seek out the best opportunities. There is something inherently wrong with one country deciding to to give out passports as part of their own policy, and those people then being entitled to entire EU freedoms and movement.
I've always wondered if at point in time, behind closed doors if May pointed out to them that a shift in this policy could have avoided this whole clusterfuck. If Tusk had simply changed to something like countries have the right to reject residency to those without jobs, assets, family in countries, this whole thing would have been avoided.
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So it's a three horse race
Tories - Leave under any means
Labour - we'd rather stay in, but if we do go out we don't want a no deal
Lib Dem - Remain, and we'll revoke Article 50 to make sureIt will be interesting to see whether Leave or Remain voters will change allegiance to get the Brexit result they hope for or whether party allegiance is too strong.
A reliable source has told me the Leave voters he's spoken with in S Wales are ready to vote The Brexit Paty or even Conservative to see us leave the EU despite coming from a multi-generational Labour voting background.
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I actually think this is not a bad move from the Lib Dem's although not one I support.
There is a lot of room for a revoke Article 50 party in the UK. Just as there is a Brexit party.
They also aren't pro Corbyn, which helps them out. Should get a lot of pro-Labour, anti-Corbyn votes.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
I've always wondered if at point in time, behind closed doors if May pointed out to them that a shift in this policy could have avoided this whole clusterfuck. If Tusk had simply changed to something like countries have the right to reject residency to those without jobs, assets, family in countries, this whole thing would have been avoided.
Nail. Head.
A thousand times over.Great post.
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The first step in bringing Boris to book has been made. Not sure if this means much in itself, the appeal will likely be more interesting.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
The first step in bringing Boris to book has been made. Not sure if this means much in itself, the appeal will likely be more interesting.
That is a damning ruling.
Effectively says BJ lied to the Queen. In a different time he'd be in the Tower by nowBut you're quite right. The ruling will be appealed. Parliament won't get to sit again until the proroguing period has come to an end anyway. And Boris is pretty slippery. Not sure he will be harmed by all of this.
And if he is as popular as @MajorRage suggests, not sure it will harm him in any way at the polls either.And that last bit is where one should become very concerned. Across the pond, their is another orange-haired bloke who is so popular, he can lie and cheat and basically do what he wants without being held accountable. Not good signs for the UK if the rule-of-law becomes subservient to popularity. Ask me. I live in Africa.
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@Billy-Webb said in Brexit:
@Catogrande said in Brexit:
The first step in bringing Boris to book has been made. Not sure if this means much in itself, the appeal will likely be more interesting.
That is a damning ruling.
Effectively says BJ lied to the Queen. In a different time he'd be in the Tower by nowBut you're quite right. The ruling will be appealed. Parliament won't get to sit again until the proroguing period has come to an end anyway. And Boris is pretty slippery. Not sure he will be harmed by all of this.
And if he is as popular as @MajorRage suggests, not sure it will harm him in any way at the polls either.And that last bit is where one should become very concerned. Across the pond, their is another orange-haired bloke who is so popular, he can lie and cheat and basically do what he wants without being held accountable. Not good signs for the UK if the rule-of-law becomes subservient to popularity. Ask me. I live in Africa.
Yeah, perhaps. Be interesting to see how this pans out - remember Jock law isn't necessarily the same as Pom & Taff law.
I can't speak for everyone re Boris, and most of my circle is London or commuter London based in traditional Tory areas, so I may be overselling his popularity. But I know that everybody is god damned sick of Brexit, and BoJo is playing on that perfectly.
Brexit