Coronavirus - Overall
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
In other good news, just got a text from work - mandatory WFH from Monday.
Nice, how much actual work can people do from home though?
For me basically 90%. It's how I can manage stuff OS for example. For some of my engineers they could do 75% but can't due to security constraints so more like half. At least a quarter of the time they can't even have a mobile phone with them. Then for others 90% requires a physical presence.
Same, but if schools close then they puts a spanner in the works, the kids will tear the place apart...
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Fuck me, virus panic has kicked in now in the UK.
Today is probably my last day in the city for a while - I've been at home / work sporadically over the last couple of week and I can work at about 95% whilst at home.
Went to supermarket yesterday - the queue's were insane. No toilet paper, pasta, to be seen. Shopping trolleys loaded everywhere as people stock up ready for the apocalypse. Just popped out to get lunch, I would estimate that it's about 20% as busy as usual - if not lower. My train in this morning was about the same ... I would guess tho as it'a an early one (6am ish), it had additional peak hour commuters on it avoiding the congested ones.
Football all suspended now, only a matter of time before London marathon gets killed as well.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
only a matter of time before London marathon gets killed as well.
Well thats bloody inconvenient isnt it!
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
only a matter of time before London marathon gets killed as well.
Well thats bloody inconvenient isnt it!
I am slightly miffed!
Appreciate when things are done for the greater good. In order of prefernce, I now want:
- Postponment in order to get the full-blown experience later on in the year.
- Keep same date and just deal with the shit that comes with it
- Cancellation with entry valid for next year
- Full cancellation
The precedent is set from other cities for option 1, although I think Boris & Cronies really want it to be number 2.
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@MajorRage Tokyo was what your 3rd choice was so I would expect London to be the same. Tokyo's event caused controversy with no refunds though, not sure if London will do the same or not.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
only a matter of time before London marathon gets killed as well.
Well thats bloody inconvenient isnt it!
I am slightly miffed!
Appreciate when things are done for the greater good. In order of prefernce, I now want:
- Postponment in order to get the full-blown experience later on in the year.
- Keep same date and just deal with the shit that comes with it
- Cancellation with entry valid for next year
- Full cancellation
The precedent is set from other cities for option 1, although I think Boris & Cronies really want it to be number 2.
Dunno if it helps, but Mrs Meldrew's son and his partner are serious runners (she has competed for England) and tell me the current view is the London marathon will be postponed and not cancelled.
There's concern that unofficial marathons will take place if they actually cancel the thing which could be a bit dangerous for runners.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
Fuck me, virus panic has kicked in now in the UK.
Yeah, not helped by some of the reporting.
E.g. Vallance, the Chief Scientific Officer, was asked how many people need to become infected to generate herd immunity and he replied "about 60%"....
...Immediately translated into headlines and Social media as "60% of UK population to contract killer virus" or "Evil government wants to infect 60% of the population".
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On the M11 yesterday. Good to see the British sense of humour is still working....
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@canefan said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
Meanwhile the ASX continues its decline. Down ~30% from peak.
One of my patients was busy today monitoring NZ utilities stocks with strong dividends (I think he said GNE dividend % was close to 6%?) with a view to buy. Some will look at this whole thing as a golden once in a decade opportunity
any other opinions on this? I note the NZ $ is low and hopefully going lower...
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Only general point I'd make is to be careful buying on div yields based on past dividends paid. There are undoubtedly bargain buying periods coming up, but there will be a lot of companies struggling in the face of a global slowdown. Past dividends may bear very little resemblance to future ones.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
Only general point I'd make is to be careful buying on div yields based on past dividends paid. There are undoubtedly bargain buying periods coming up, but there will be a lot of companies struggling in the face of a global slowdown. Past dividends may bear very little resemblance to future ones.
Too true. Historic P/E ratios are looking extremely attractive but to try and get a meaningful forward P/E is very hard. We could see earnings falling far enough to support the current values.
Gulp!
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I do wonder if the current crisis will see a shift in how we work and how society operates - people gettting used to working from home, managers see overall productivity the same and the need for the daily commute seen as not only an expensive pain the the arse but not actually necessary. The infrastructure is pretty much there and reduction in CO2 could reinforce a radical change in working practices. We could well see a radical change in society - much of which could be broadly positive for the local environment and people's lives.
How will that affect major companies?
1960's "Why do men wear hats to work? - because we always have"
2020's "Why do you spend hours travelling to a place to turn on a PC when you can turn on the PC at home? - because we always have"
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@Victor-Meldrew I think this is a possible outcome for larger companies that have a better handle on working practices and perhaps less ego involved but less so for some smaller companies where you can get a more emotional response to things. I could be wrong and influenced by my own workplace where there is an overly controlling management, but I have enough grey hairs to understand that it is difficult to take the human response out of things.
Logic would say you're right, experience would say hold on a minute. Certainly as we are at present.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus: should I be panicking yet?:
I do wonder if the current crisis will see a shift in how we work and how society operates - people gettting used to working from home, managers see overall productivity the same and the need for the daily commute seen as not only an expensive pain the the arse but not actually necessary. The infrastructure is pretty much there and reduction in CO2 could reinforce a radical change in working practices. We could well see a radical change in society - much of which could be broadly positive for the local environment and people's lives.
How will that affect major companies?
1960's "Why do men wear hats to work? - because we always have"
2020's "Why do you spend hours travelling to a place to turn on a PC when you can turn on the PC at home? - because we always have"
I’ve been working from home in the UK and NZ since 2006. It’s not for everybody, it can be quite challenging to keep productive, and it does not suit all occupations.
It’s very useful for output based work, eg write this code by this time.
I will say that the modern tools for meetings and collaboration are excellent these days.
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Well the full impact is finally being felt here in the USA
Kids are off school the rest of the month, at least.
I have to work from home for awhile.
All sporting events are getting cancelled. I was going to take the kids to watch CO Raptors play - Rene Ranger has been in fine form, but all suspended.
Everyone going nuts for toilet paper - just bizarre.