Coronavirus - Overall
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Just how fucked will Africa and India be when it breaks out there? Given their population and poverty
Counter-intuitively, Africa is probably better placed than we think. Some of their experience and expertise in controlling infectious diseases (e.g. Ebola and HIV) is probably as good as, if not better, than the West.
And it is reported that the virus doesn't do well at temperatures of over 25 degrees C.
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A few holiday villages near us have seen a huge drop in bookings. I'd imagine they'd extend their Jan-Feb hibernate mode until Summer when hopefully the crisis will have lifted.
People will still want to spend money, so their overall income will be the same but cash-flow could be a problem
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa I'm not concerned about my own risk of dying, I'm more concerned about the vulnerable people and economic fallout from it. What happens to the world economies as they come to a stand still whilst we wait to flatten the curve.
I'm thinking it's doable - it'll take whatever we can do to get economies through the demand shock/get past it quicker. Everything ranging from individuals buying (perhaps online) - a wider range of goods than the proverbial panic bought bog paper, through to some of the 'get through' government support packages starting to be announced everywhere.
I think those government interventions will only increase in intensity as things go, especially for service industries, businesses, and their employees where there is no alternative to the flow of people to generate cash.
That said, I wouldn't like to be in one of the Venezuela's of the world right now. We're all fortunate enough on TSF to be in places with first class health systems and economies........
In terms of the long term sustainable GDP growth rate the virus shouldn'thave much effect, but the starting point will be a bit lower.
The cash flow impacts, for say six months, will weed out overgeared companies (watch out P.E.), fragile companies which lease a lot of property, start ups, etc. and will kill the prices of mega multiple growth companies.
One hopes a lesson will be to dial back on financial and operating leverage. Like a bushfire, it won't be all bad news.
Perhaps the most challenging impact is on SMEs, many of which have limited cash buffers. In UK, the government is trying to implement in conjunction with the banks schemes which will fund previously solvent firms through the problem. A big issue is how to measure this as they don't want to fund businesses which would have failed anyway.
IS NZ planning anything similar?
At this stage there's two main things for business: (from https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/121-billion-support-new-zealanders-and-business)
- $2.8 billion in business tax changes to free up cashflow, including a provisional tax threshold lift, the reinstatement of building depreciation and writing off interest on the late payment of tax
- $5.1 billion in wage subsidies for affected businesses in all sectors and regions, available from today, and $126 million in COVID-19 leave and self-isolation support
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@Victor-Meldrew I think your area is going to be a absolutely smoking it this summer.
People will get over most of the craze quite quickly, but I suspect there will be aeroplane anxiety for a while yet.
Somewhere you can drive to will be hugely in demand.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Just how fucked will Africa and India be when it breaks out there? Given their population and poverty
Counter-intuitively, Africa is probably better placed than we think. Some of their experience and expertise in controlling infectious diseases (e.g. Ebola and HIV) is probably as good as, if not better, than the West.
And it is reported that the virus doesn't do well at tempertaures of over 25 degrees C.
Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Just how fucked will Africa and India be when it breaks out there? Given their population and poverty
Counter-intuitively, Africa is probably better placed than we think. Some of their experience and expertise in controlling infectious diseases (e.g. Ebola and HIV) is probably as good as, if not better, than the West.
And it is reported that the virus doesn't do well at tempertaures of over 25 degrees C.
Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....
Singapore seems to have coped well.
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Mrs M's parents are 88 & 84, not in a good way and are self-isolating. Their other daughter, who drops by most days, works as a teacher and is dropping their groceries by the door. No physical contact.
A nurse used to visit twice a week but that has stopped. The nurse has explained that she's tested negative, but as she visits multiple people, she'd need a test every day and that really isn't practical.
The NHS had said it's getting in touch to offer tailored advice. We've been told visiting is OK but no physical contact, loads of handwashing and 1.5 m distance, so that will help.
The thing we really need to work-out is hygiene and washing themselves. Once we get that we could well be OK.
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@Rembrandt said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Everyone is getting a lens adjustment to see the world in a different way over the next few weeks. God knows how some of the more pampered fragile folk are going to handle it.
The thorny issue of trans-gender toilet rights seems to have become pretty passe hasn't it?
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
@Donsteppa I'm not concerned about my own risk of dying, I'm more concerned about the vulnerable people and economic fallout from it. What happens to the world economies as they come to a stand still whilst we wait to flatten the curve.
I'm thinking it's doable - it'll take whatever we can do to get economies through the demand shock/get past it quicker. Everything ranging from individuals buying (perhaps online) - a wider range of goods than the proverbial panic bought bog paper, through to some of the 'get through' government support packages starting to be announced everywhere.
I think those government interventions will only increase in intensity as things go, especially for service industries, businesses, and their employees where there is no alternative to the flow of people to generate cash.
That said, I wouldn't like to be in one of the Venezuela's of the world right now. We're all fortunate enough on TSF to be in places with first class health systems and economies........
In terms of the long term sustainable GDP growth rate the virus shouldn'thave much effect, but the starting point will be a bit lower.
The cash flow impacts, for say six months, will weed out overgeared companies (watch out P.E.), fragile companies which lease a lot of property, start ups, etc. and will kill the prices of mega multiple growth companies.
One hopes a lesson will be to dial back on financial and operating leverage. Like a bushfire, it won't be all bad news.
Perhaps the most challenging impact is on SMEs, many of which have limited cash buffers. In UK, the government is trying to implement in conjunction with the banks schemes which will fund previously solvent firms through the problem. A big issue is how to measure this as they don't want to fund businesses which would have failed anyway.
IS NZ planning anything similar?
At this stage there's two main things for business: (from https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/121-billion-support-new-zealanders-and-business)
- $2.8 billion in business tax changes to free up cashflow, including a provisional tax threshold lift, the reinstatement of building depreciation and writing off interest on the late payment of tax
- $5.1 billion in wage subsidies for affected businesses in all sectors and regions, available from today, and $126 million in COVID-19 leave and self-isolation support
Also, the additional money into the economy benefits business because it gets spent, so increased benefits (and the like) help business indirectly as well.
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@Frank said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....
Singapore seems to have coped well.
Singapore skill level - Asian
They did not fuck around by all accounts. They are one of the main asian hubs so got a heavy influx of Chinese travellers so they had a fair amount of ground to make up
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@Frank said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Its spread in Australia and Singapore, both have temperatures over 25c....
Singapore seems to have coped well.
Singapore skill level - Asian
They have the perfect combination of
- A government that is prepared to act fast
- A population that will listen to the government without question and do what they say.
Makes them perfect for this sort of thing. Not so much for many others.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
No source I can quote, a friend who is CEO of a large listed entity got it from a friend he considers reputable. Take it as you will. Stuff seems to change by the hour at the moment anyway right?
By essential, I take that to mean doctors, pharmacies and supermarkets and very little else.
This recent announcement could give some weight to that.
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Steven Cain, Chief Executive Officer, Coles Group announces:
Recruiting over 5,000 new team members
“To help us continue to offer the best possible service to customers during this busy time, we are recruiting an additional 5,000 casual team members to join our supermarkets across Australia. This will allow us to serve more customers and replenish shelves faster, while offering employment opportunities for Australians in industries impacted by COVID-19. We’ll be fast-tracking inductions so we can boost the number of team members on the shop floor as quickly as possible.”
How good is that? Well done Coles.
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Fark me.
The press here have been banging on for days how Johnson needs to shut down everything, quoting various rent-a-mouths to support their view. Having done that, they are now wanting an urgent re-think as pubs and clubs are suffering from the shut-downs.
You couldn't make this shit up.
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@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall/Rest of the World:
Holy shit I just realised Top Gun 2 is likely to be delayed. No movies will be released until this shit is sorted.
As an almost teenager my son was enthralled by Top Gun with Tom Cruise and the several other actors who made it such a winner. In recent weeks he mentioned how much he was looking forward to "Top Gun: Maverick".
I warned him that often the new improved version of things - on film, in music, in life - sometimes fails to capture the magic of the original. I cited my refusal to watch The Magnificent Seven remake and the impossibility of anyone improving on the talented individual excellence of Yul Brynner, Steve McQueen, Eli Wallach, Charles Bronson, Robert Vaughn and James Coburn, or the synergy they brought sixty!! years ago.
I didn't have the heart to tell him Iceman, at 60, is battling throat cancer and he looks it, just awful.
Getting old and simultaneously getting crook is ordinary squared.
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