Coronavirus - Overall
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Conference call with Trump today. Some heavyweights. Amusing to see Vincent Kennedy amongst them!
They haven’t released yet what was discussed, but presumably it’s about re-starting their seasons or trying to get a sense of when they can get back to business.
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so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
I don;t trust their numbers at all, they're not testing enough. But, yes, I don't think they're downplaying them - they just have no idea
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@Machpants said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
I don;t trust their numbers at all, they're not testing enough. But, yes, I don't think they're downplaying them - they just have no idea
Scary to think that a day of 30k new cases in the US might be well under
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Machpants said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
I don;t trust their numbers at all, they're not testing enough. But, yes, I don't think they're downplaying them - they just have no idea
Scary to think that a day of 30k new cases in the US might be well under
It's a big country
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Machpants said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
I don;t trust their numbers at all, they're not testing enough. But, yes, I don't think they're downplaying them - they just have no idea
Scary to think that a day of 30k new cases in the US might be well under
Apparently that was yesterday:-
@Machpants Looking at the chart above and comparing the fatality numbers v the confirmed cases, it looks like, all other things being equal, that the US is testing pretty well compared to many other countries. The UK included.
We have a death rate/confirmed cases ratio of a little over 10% whilst the US is a little under 3%. Would indicate wider testing?
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@voodoo I think the numbers everywhere are likely higher than reported, but it's about if they have it under control or not.
Italy's numbers are supposedly dropping, but they have a very long way to go.
The next 4 days will likely determine if we see a relaxing of lockdown over the next couple of weeks.
I could continue to work from home, my wife has full ppe gear for when she has been working st a retirement village, looked like someone from one if those outbreak movies...I did tell her to do her shop in it, but she won't haha.
I am sure plenty could restart (tradies for example, just up to the project manager to limit the people on site) takeaway shops, many have ability to simply sell through a window or am sure they could work out a way to do it...provided they stick to a set criteria.
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Machpants said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
I don;t trust their numbers at all, they're not testing enough. But, yes, I don't think they're downplaying them - they just have no idea
Scary to think that a day of 30k new cases in the US might be well under
It's a big country
It is, though its the trajectory that is scary, and you wonder where it peaks, got to be > 1m cases, is double that, 3x?
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@voodoo I think the numbers everywhere are likely higher than reported, but it's about if they have it under control or not.
Italy's numbers are supposedly dropping, but they have a very long way to go.
The next 4 days will likely determine if we see a relaxing of lockdown over the next couple of weeks.
I could continue to work from home, my wife has full ppe gear for when she has been working st a retirement village, looked like someone from one if those outbreak movies...I did tell her to do her shop in it, but she won't haha.
I am sure plenty could restart (tradies for example, just up to the project manager to limit the people on site) takeaway shops, many have ability to simply sell through a window or am sure they could work out a way to do it...provided they stick to a set criteria.
There is a huge problem with all this conjecture. Which is that the flattened curve in Italy only shows what happens with an intense lockdown. Maybe numbers of daily indentified infections will fall. Meanwhile, herd immunity may be rising only very slowly. So a relaxation (how and when?) allows some trade off of higher deaths for increased economic activity. But without any significant increase in herd immunity it's unlikely the relaxations can be that great.
I look closely at Holland, where people who can't work from home can go to work (like UK) but where some interactions remain permitted: https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19/tackling-new-coronavirus-in-the-netherlands .
The results suggest that the benefits of such an approach are no less (and possibly are better) than in UK/Italy/France. This article gives an interesting viewpoint: https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/04/coronavirus-statistics-show-lockdowns-are-slowing-rate-of-infection/ .
Key para: It will take weeks before we can say definitively which country’s strategy has been the best, but one plausible conclusion is that the real difference has come from preventing mass gatherings in confined spaces: football matches, concerts, high streets, railway stations and bars and restaurants.
That may inform a sensible initial relaxation.
The stark reality is that, barring an early vaccine, the question to be answered in Europe is, 'What is the maximum tolerable death rate?'. And, "Can we trust our citizens to respect social distancing?'.
NZ's isolation does allow a slightly different approach.
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@pakman Italy, Spain, even England to a great degree, their populations did not appear to be overly compliant with social distancing and generally doing what they are told. In contrast, Sweden, and other Scandinavian countries who are good at following instructions, might get away with more relaxed rules
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Meanwhile in the FFS news
Coronavirus: Police warn Scottish medical chief Catherine Calderwood after holiday home visit
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Meanwhile in the FFS news
Coronavirus: Police warn Scottish medical chief Catherine Calderwood after holiday home visit
Should recent but won't because she is a SNP. Typical hypocrisy from a Scots Nat.
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@MiketheSnow Great questions that have to be answered. Health related due to isolation and depression, CA, suicides etc.