Coronavirus - UK
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
Estimated new daily Covid admissions to hospital in England up from 30 at the beginning of August to 430 odd now. IMO that puts a new light on the current government reaction.
Source: NHS
Shows why people disregard the virus at their peril. That is a significant jump. Leave things unattended and watch the numbers skyrocket
It's much more worrying than the spike in positive cases.
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
Estimated new daily Covid admissions to hospital in England up from 30 at the beginning of August to 430 odd now. IMO that puts a new light on the current government reaction.
Source: NHS
Shows why people disregard the virus at their peril. That is a significant jump. Leave things unattended and watch the numbers skyrocket
It's much more worrying than the spike in positive cases.
Is it? Surely this is to be expected no? As cases go up, the lagging effects (hospitals, ventilators, deaths) will follow after a sustained period?
It would be good to see some positive statistics along side this. Number of people coming out of hospital as well? IF 50 are going in and 40 are coming out ... then that's the same as 400 going in and 390 going out. I know that won't be the case, but the net number is what is the most important.
My fear is that the north was hit hardest first as it got coldest first ... We've only really had the big temperature swing in the last couple of weeks where I am, no doubt that was probably early September up north.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
Estimated new daily Covid admissions to hospital in England up from 30 at the beginning of August to 430 odd now. IMO that puts a new light on the current government reaction.
Source: NHS
Shows why people disregard the virus at their peril. That is a significant jump. Leave things unattended and watch the numbers skyrocket
It's much more worrying than the spike in positive cases.
Is it? Surely this is to be expected no? As cases go up, the lagging effects (hospitals, ventilators, deaths) will follow after a sustained period?
Yeah I think it is more worrying and whilst it might be expected given the spike in positive cases you need to factor in the much greater level of testing. This means that we are counting positive cases now that we likely wouldn't have previously as they are very mild or perhaps asymptomatic. Many cases are being tested purely due to the track and trace system for instance. I agree that a lag would be expected, but it is the scale of the increase in hospitalisations that I find worrying. If this continues then capacity will be compromised
It would be good to see some positive statistics along side this. Number of people coming out of hospital as well? IF 50 are going in and 40 are coming out ... then that's the same as 400 going in and 390 going out. I know that won't be the case, but the net number is what is the most important.
I agree that it would be good to see the positive side of the stats but I don't see that we can yet expect the 400 in and 390 out scenario as that would also be a lagging data point. Hopefully we do soon though.
My fear is that the north was hit hardest first as it got coldest first ... We've only really had the big temperature swing in the last couple of weeks where I am, no doubt that was probably early September up north.
The difference is, down south we know enough to put a coat on once it gets a bit chilly. We should be fine.
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6 days later from my data based post and I'm still waiting for the lag.
At this rate we'll see Christmas first
Using the Government's data
Positive Cases first, Deaths second, % Death Rate third
01 Oct 6914; 59
02 Oct 6968; 66
03 Oct 12871; 49
04 Oct 22961; 33
05 Oct 12593; 19
06 Oct 14542; 76
07 Oct 14162; 70
08 Oct 17540; 77
09 Oct 13864; 87
10 Oct 15165; 81
11 Oct 12872; 65
12 Oct 13972; 50October to date 164424; 732; 0.45%
Sep '20 117,391; 642; 0.55%So an increase in positive cases and absolute deaths but a reduction in the % death rate
How can these numbers justify the Government's actions and measures?
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@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
That doesn't sound like the yearly flu to me.....
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
That doesn't sound like the yearly flu to me.....
With no vaccine and no immunity built up these numbers whilst increasing still represent a small percentage of deaths in the UK.
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
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@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
I meant “tomorrow “ in general terms, so the trend is the thing. Recent short term (so far) is reducing but month on month is a big increase. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
I meant “tomorrow “ in general terms, so the trend is the thing. Recent short term (so far) is reducing but month on month is a big increase. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.
You’ve obviously not seen today’s numbers.
We are officially completely fucked.
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
I meant “tomorrow “ in general terms, so the trend is the thing. Recent short term (so far) is reducing but month on month is a big increase. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.
You’ve obviously not seen today’s numbers.
We are officially completely fucked.
A further almost 500 admissions on the 11th. Not good.
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OK things are changing
143 deaths reported in the UK yesterday (13 October)
That's the first time back over 100 since 27 July
Would still like to see the breakdown of those being hospitalised and those dying.
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
I meant “tomorrow “ in general terms, so the trend is the thing. Recent short term (so far) is reducing but month on month is a big increase. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.
You’ve obviously not seen today’s numbers.
We are officially completely fucked.
A further almost 500 admissions on the 11th. Not good.
There is always a lag between admissions and deaths because covid is not a rapid killer, it takes a few weeks at least
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@MiketheSnow You sure Mike? Actual deaths in October already up by 14% and we're not halfway through. Sure death rate down in relation to positive cases but we're experiencing many more positives due to the higher level of testing. If we extrapolate forward October deaths simply at the current level and not allowing for any increase (both dangerous I know) then we would expect 1,891 deaths in October. A near 300% increase.
Which would still be a fraction of the deaths seen at the start of the 'pandemic'
There were 2126 deaths between 01-04 April alone
Agreed, but the question is are we getting better or worse? The obvious answer is we’re getting worse. How bad it will be is anyone’s guess but we can be pretty sure tomorrow will be worse than today.
I can’t see any reason why the government should not be taking action at the current time. What I would like to see is a more coherent explanation of the hows and whys. Too many mixed messages gives the thought that we have muddled thinking from the top down.
Not necessarily, there were more reported deaths on the 09 October than yesterday the 12th
I meant “tomorrow “ in general terms, so the trend is the thing. Recent short term (so far) is reducing but month on month is a big increase. It’ll be interesting to see how this pans out over the next few weeks.
You’ve obviously not seen today’s numbers.
We are officially completely fucked.
A further almost 500 admissions on the 11th. Not good.
There is always a lag between admissions and deaths because covid is not a rapid killer, it takes a few weeks at least
True
Will be very interesting to see if the admissions demographic are different from the first wave.
And whether survival rate is higher based on different demographic and/or different treatments.
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@canefan @MiketheSnow Still much to be learned about consequences of any of the data yet, but we’re currently in an upward trend in most points. Mike, what is your view on Starmer’s latest uttering? Last week it was all “ lockdowns aren’t working “ and now he’s all for the circuit breaker lockdown because the Government have “lost control” of the virus. This from the man who said he wouldn’t politicise the virus.
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - UK:
@canefan @MiketheSnow Still much to be learned about consequences of any of the data yet, but we’re currently in an upward trend in most points. Mike, what is your view on Starmer’s latest uttering? Last week it was all “ lockdowns aren’t working “ and now he’s all for the circuit breaker lockdown because the Government have “lost control” of the virus. This from the man who said he wouldn’t politicise the virus.
If we don't secure our borders as NZ has done, then a lockdown is just delaying the inevitable in my opinion.
The UK situation is compounded by the number of 'at risk' people able to go about their daily lives propped up by pharmaceuticals and treatments who when exposed to COVID-19 see a dramatic change in their daily circumstances.
So the 'at risk' group is far larger and far more influential than in other countries, hence the 'need' for a second national lockdown.
Starmer is more ineffectual than Corbyn IMHO. At least Corbyn would have been asking questions and not flip flopping.
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I had this page on a tab unrefreshed with yesterday's data still on it.
hospitalisations 4367 yesterday to 4650 today. Daily admissions was 680. So net gain of 293, would mean 386 discharged?
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@Rapido said in Coronavirus - UK:
I had this page on a tab unrefreshed with yesterday's data still on it.
hospitalisations 4367 yesterday to 4650 today. Daily admissions was 680. So net gain of 293, would mean 386 discharged?
In terms of managing NHS resources that is the most relevant of stats, but even at a daily increase of around 300, it can’t go on for long without some serious problems.