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@Frank said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@canefan exactly, lets just get it over and one with one way or the other, this is painful...
I don't think the hysteria ends after the election
It will only just begin.
If Trump loses wait for the waves of hypocrisy from Trump supporters that cried 'suck it up' to Hillary.
Oh for sure. I agree
And the left certainly has form not accepting election results.
Fours years of it.4 years ago Trump would not say if he would accept election results.
So you mean Donald Trump is a leftie?
Figures. Never trusted him. -
@nostrildamus said in US Politics:
4 years ago Trump would not say if he would accept election results.
He didn't say that. What he said was as below. Which is completely different. One is accept regardless of what the outcome is and if there is evidence of funny business. The other is not accept regardless
“I will look at it at the time,” Mr. Trump said. “I will keep you in suspense.”
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@reprobate said in US Politics:
@Winger said in US Politics:
@gt12 said in US Politics:
They also pointed towards the way Trump and did family get rich.
But there is a big diff. Trump did it through his business before he entered politics. He built a business and created work in the country.
And we will see if enough people care or not next week
yep, there's absolutely zero evidence of any trump associate or family member being given any undue advantage since donald entered politics.
Like receiving millions from the wife of the ex mayor of Moscow. Terrible. Or was that the Biden family
ah
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" And the left certainly has form not accepting election results."
So he would certainly have form THERE. -
Not much fun on that biden bus in Texas! Shit is getting real!
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@Frank said in US Politics:
@Crucial
What is your polling site saying with a couple of days to go?
I searched for the link you posted to it earlier in this thread but couldn't find it.Nothing really different.
Iowa only comes into play if other things happen.
Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan are the ones ro watch.
No matter what though, if Trump loses Florida he is screwed.
Biden still sitting on a win counting States where he is polling at over 5% ahead.
Trump well short when counting states that he is over 5% ahead.
Trump needs all of the’toss ups’ plus to steal a sizeable one off Biden -
Biden. His time - better late than never.
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@Frank said in US Politics:
@Crucial
What is your polling site saying with a couple of days to go?
I searched for the link you posted to it earlier in this thread but couldn't find it.Just double checked and Iowa has flipped with a tiny % lead to Trump and Nevada has become a 'toss up'
The second Maine vote (they are one of the odd states) has also slipped below 5%Biden still polls as not requiring any of the toss ups (ie Trump has to win all of them)
The bad news for Trump is that Wisc, Penn, Minn and Mich have all firmed over a 5% margin for Biden.
Trumps support is well locked in. He only has one red state not firmly in his camp and that is one he is unlikely to lose (Texas) .
Convincing the swing states and flipping a blue one is his focus while Biden can afford to lose some swing ones.Still not something you can call on polls but they are pretty steady and there would need to be alot of mind changing at the last moment, hidden voters and/or a mess with postal votes (quite possible) for things to change much.
The biggest question is whether Biden can show a strong enough win in the early counts for Trump to back off and not fight the results.
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@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
I can't wait for this to be over
post of the year?
That post can be repurposed into the covid19 threads as well
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@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@canefan ...could also use it in the AB's v Australia series of games.....
The aussies could use it at least.....
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@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Crucial this site you use, what did it say about 2016, did it predict Trump winning?
It didn't but then it doesn't aim to predict a winner. It provides a view of the data weighted over time so you can observe how the polls are looking.
I did a bit of looking back because I wanted to understand 'what went wrong' last time and found that nothing really went wrong except that (like this time) the reporting took the polls at face value.
If you were to take this year at face value you would state (as some outlets are) a landslide to Biden with 369 electoral college votes.
When you take away those votes who have polls within a margin of error then the situation is different.
From memory it was only Michigan that flipped on the polls from being 'leaning' (ie 5-10% margin) one way to a result the other, and as we know that was by the tiniest amount.
Trump basically has to have 2016 all over again to win. Have all of the minimal margin states go his way and sneak one other.
US Politics